The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs: Part 1 + Playoff Reactions - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/25

I thought prior to talking to him that the opportunity for touchdowns could finally be there for him. He's obviously great. He catches the ball. He is a phenomenal running back. But will he get the opportunity? And I asked him that on our show. And his answer made me firmly believe that he was not going. He's like, you know. I'm putting that on you. Yeah. Because there was room for interpretation. He just said that coaches, coach and players play, which you took to mean maybe.

They won't give them that because the coach is going to have a different decision around the goal line, right? Yes, yes. I need to go back and relisten to that and see if now in hindsight because here's a thing. He got a few red zone carries this year. He had 20 touchdowns, all of them inside the red zone and was dominant. He is the number one most consistent running back, even more consistent than Jonathan Taylor by our metrics and was a dominant, dominant force.

Yeah, number one, like you said. And battled through injuries at the end of the year, and it didn't matter. He still got into the end zone, 20 touchdowns, 12 on the ground. He was outstanding. 31% great, 88% good games, busted zero times. So. Played through injuries. Really incredible. Great at home. Seven points better at home. Great against bad defenses, six points better against them. He's on a great offense. They've improved their offensive line. Herbert's getting better.

Yeah, as you say, you've got stability there. You've got a coach that you trust. You've got the injuries dealing with them. Look, they were trying to find a compliment for him throughout the year. They were kicking the tires on Roundtree for half the year. They tried to use Justin Jackson. They, you know, they're trying to find a way to.

help him with that. But the nice thing, though, is that he doesn't need, he doesn't need the 300 touches to be great. Like we saw that when he was on a pitch count and they used Justin Jackson and they brought him in and gave him workload. Still, Austin Echler was a great fantasy option in those games. I think he's going to be under drafted next year because there's the injury guys that are, I think, all going to go ahead of him. Christian McCaffrey will be drafted ahead of Austin Echler.

Derek Henry will be drafted ahead of Austin Echler. And I don't know that that's fair to Austin Echler. You've got a guy who is so consistent because of his past catching ability on a great offense as the dude used in the red zone. I think the history of Austin Echler is going to get in the way of the present. And I hope to not make that mistake. I think Austin Echler is.

worthy of that number two pick. The efficiency was outstanding. I think coming into the year, we said we thought he'd get 200 carries. It wasn't going to be much more than that. He got 206 on the year, you know, dealt with the injuries. I think he missed one game. But his snap counts are lower than the big guys. And that will be the persuasion against him. It will be the reason Alvin Camara.

probably wasn't drafted where he belonged for a handful of years is Camara was a 200 carry guy. Exactly. And you, people want the 70 plus percent snap count, 300 carry running backs. And so I, you know, John the Taylor's going to go ahead of him. Yes. But I think there will be three or four or five guys that also go ahead of them. I mean, I think you're going to have.

Chris McCaffrey, Derek Henry, go ahead of him. I think you could have Alvin Kamara go ahead of him, which is a great comp because they're very, very similar in their utilization and their talent. But one of them is on a really good offense, and one of them is on an offense that's dying. Wouldn't you rather have Austin Eckler over Alvin Kamara? Yes. So it'll be interesting to see the ADP next year, but we'll do our best to make sure.

He gets the respect he deserves. All right. Joe Mixin coming in at number three, number seven inconsistency. And that meant 44% great games, which was, I believe, higher than Austin Eccler, 63% good, 6% busts, 1,200 yards, 13 rushing touchdowns. You can make the same compelling argument about Joe Mixon.

in the offense and Joe Burrow and the consistency there that you could make for Austin Ecklin. Yeah, and he actually will probably touch the ball more. He is more of that, you know, he's not going to be a 200-carried guy. So Joe Mixon will be in consideration. I wonder how much Joe had a really confusing season because even though he's the running back three, you said it. He was consistency rank only seven. And.

12th in the second half of the year, too. The first month wasn't great for him. And then when he got, just caught fire, he let everyone down in the fantasy playoffs. And I think those people who had him are probably mad at him. You get in the playoffs and he has his worst game of the entire season. And I think people went into the season feeling that way about Joe Mixon anyways. There was a lot of the, no more, I'm not doing it with Joe Mixon again, camp going into the draft.

So I think it will be interesting to see where he goes. We were trying to kind of, we were throwing out names in the first round, running backs, you know, and it took a second to get to Joe, even though he finished the number three. Yeah, I'm, I'm curious what you value him in Dynasty because he's 25 years old right now. He has three more years under contract, but we've seen these second contract running backs fall off a cliff at some point, but he's tied to this great offense.

this up and come in, and I would have to imagine, please, Cincinnati, your focus is your offensive line. That is your focus this offseason. And I'm not talking about in the draft. I'm talking about go pay up for whoever the best free agent guard is, the best free agent tackle. You have tons of caps space. You didn't like nine sacks for Joe Burrow in this last game. No, go protect him. Don't do what the Colts did with Andrew Luck. Don't make Joe Burrow retire in five years.

Just go protect him. And if that happens, that's great news for Joe Mixer. Two more peak years. For Joe? I think that's how you should think about him in Dynasty. Would you trade for him right now? Would you go try to target him? Do you think he's going to be less? No, I don't think people are going to, I don't think you're getting a bargain on Joe Mixing. So I think he can have two more peak years with this offense and that team. So, yeah, I mean, you laid it out pretty well. He didn't quite feel like the number three overall running back. But he did give you a.

High percentage, which I think is better than Jonathan Taylor, in terms of 21 plus point games. So he would win you weeks, but he wasn't kind of somebody that people feared, I think, when they played against him. And you tried to catch him on a bad week. You tried to catch him when he finished 27th or 30th or 31st or, you know, not the 243-2 week span that he had. Who would you rather have?

next year. Well, let me ask you this. Let's talk about the next guy, Najee Harris. Who would you have rather had this year? If you could go back and draft them, would you have rather have had Najee or Joe Mixen for this season that just finished up? They scored, you know, about the same amount of fantasy points as each other. Joe, Najee was consistency rank four, but finished a little bit behind Joe Mixing. Who would you have rather had?

It's a good question because Naji was so consistent in the first half. And that's our next name. He was number two in consistency over the first half of the year. Which, I mean, that's when you're making your, you're establishing yourself for the playoffs, but then became less consistent over the back half. I think it's Joe Mixing by a hair. Just because I want the, I mean, did Naji ever finish inside the top five on a given week until, yeah, week 14?

So week three, he was running back five. Week 14, he was running back four. And week 17, he was running back two. So he did have a couple. But he's obviously, if you're in a full PPR league, it's, it's nodgy for sure. You're talking about 74 receptions on 94 targets. Right. The real question to me, because he was as good as any running back this year, so consistent, what happens without Big Ben? Big Ben, you know, just.

It was the Philip Rivers dump-off situation. It was the Eli Manning dump-offs to say, Juan Barclay. Exactly. No, it's a huge issue. That whole team, they're going to need to find a new identity. They're talking about giving the first round Tinder to Dwayne Haskins. So that's where they're at. You don't need to do that, Pittsburgh.

Yeah, I mean, that's where the sealers are at, and it will make a difference. But you said this on the show last week. You kind of saw the worst you can get offensively for this team, or so we thought. And if this is the worst it gets, then Najee's pretty good. So I think in a half point, I'd be Joe by a little bit for that stretch in the middle of the year where he absolutely won games for you. But he was good against, you know, he's the first running back we've talked about that was equally good against good and bad defenses.

So same amount of points. When you touch the ball almost 400 times, you're going to be consistent. It doesn't matter if you're inefficient. If you get the ball 400 times, you're going to score a lot of fantasy points and you're going to do it on the reg. So I like Najee. And I'm willing to draft him with a bad quarterback next year very, very high because the talent is there and we know that.

They're going to give him the ball until he breaks down, which he is young enough to where he might not break down for a couple of years. Did you mention one of 11 running backs in NFL history with 300 plus carries and 90 plus targets? Exactly. I mean, I didn't mention that other than saying he had almost 400 touches, and that's how it came. I mean, when you can get 90 targets, you know that this year was like the first year? There was no 100 target running back this year, which is pretty surprising. Obviously, Christian McCaffer going down.

hurt that quite a bit. You wonder, though, if this will be one of those things where this is his peak touches ever in a season. Do you think the dependency on him was so high this year that this will be the most we see? It's hard to tell because I don't know how you could be less dependent on him next year. I feel like it's going to be more of the same next year. What about if the muth gets luth? Oh, the muth is just going to take it. Couldn't he steal some?

He could steal a little bit of work, but I think you need people to step up and you need the Steelers to get better on offense for Najee to get better. I don't expect them to, but I think Najee does more of the same next year. And even with Dwayne Haskins or Mason Rudolph, I will still draft Najee with pretty much full confidence because their offense was bad this year and he was great. Yeah. If the target totals don't stay that high and they're equally bad, he will drop down a tier.

Certainly. Only four running backs have led the NFL in touches as a rookie. Eric Dickerson, Edron, James, LT, and Naji. That is quite the list. James Connor comes in at number five. Consistency rank of eight, but that consistency rank over the second half of the year was three. But he missed some games. So, I mean, you're talking about a stretch of what, like six games there. He just kept scoring 752 yards rushing.

on 200 carries, but 15 touchdowns on the ground, three through the air. I mean, he was better when they played a great defense. He just found the end zone. And I think he showed a lot of people that he had something, you know, he had something to prove it coming into the year and he proved it. Yeah. And he was going to make money. It seemed like James Connor was.

past his prime, obviously coming into age 26, usually for fantasy purposes, and this would obviously translate for NFL GMs and real football, running back's peak around 24 years old. That doesn't mean that they're dead by 26, but their peak is about 24 years old. And we saw that with James Connor coming in 26. I think people assumed the injuries had kind of caught up with him too much and he was a little bit washed. He had power.

He had speed. He had everything that he wanted. Most mistackles of his career. I mean, he was unbelievable. Number one in pass blocking. You get down near the goal line, and he's a touchdown machine. When Chase Edmonds went down in week nine, that was when the opportunity was really given to him by the Cardinals to be the dude, and he dominated. So obviously for future purposes, there's two things here. One is where is he going to be?

wherever he goes, you know he still has juice left. If he goes to a different team, we cannot view him the way that we viewed him coming into this season, which was he doesn't really have it left. I think you've got to give him the benefit of the doubt. But also, the other thing is the starting running back for the Arizona Cardinals is a very valuable role.