The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs: Part 1 + Playoff Reactions - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/25

because won't the team need to know definitively what's going on if they're going to make rebuilt? Because if he's gone, they should rebuild. For sure. And if he's there, they need to make commitments to veterans and find a way through the cap situation the way that teams came. And his words were that he was going to have conversations with people there, take some time, and then he would have a decision before free agency. What was... There you go. What was funny to me, though, is that...

in his mind and his world, and maybe this is just truth, it's his decision. Like, like, you're under contract for the Packers. He's like, I'll let you know where. No, that's how it works at this stage of your career. Yeah. And he could just retire. He's retiring. It's just like when Kurt Warner, well, he was under contract for the Cardinals for another year. And it was, the offseason was like, what are you going to do? Are you going to retire? You're going to come back? Take your money. That's fair. But you made a point just looking at target distribution in that game. I mean, he threw the ball to Aaron Jones and Devante Adams and no one else.

You know, and the sucky part of that is that it didn't work. Their offense, you know, they put up 10 points. And so I've always said if I was a quarterback, you know, if I've got a Michael Thomas or Devante Adams, I'm just going to throw it to him every single play. And Aaron Rogers tried that out and did not put up a lot of offensive output. Granted, it was in the snow. It's hard to compete with the kind of greatness that was behind center on the other side of the field.

Yeah, Jimmy Garoppolo and his winning percentage is disgusting. You asked me, how do we reconcile that? Better winning percentage than Peyton Manning. Yeah. And how do you reconcile that with wins or a quarterback stat? Yeah, you have to say this is a team game with that stat. And obviously the special teams made the plays in this game. But I don't know how to reconcile it. The quarterbacks that I think of,

are the Trent Delfer seasons where the defense was like on another level and just broke the game. And so it didn't matter who was quarterback. That's the only time I can remember a player doing less and, you know, I don't know. It was kind of crazy. Has there special teams crew been fired yet? For the Packers? For the Packers. Pretty bad. And Al, are you still with us? I'm still here. All right. Well, you just got all the truth you need about your Green Bay Packers. Let's get into the running backs.

You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers. I want the truth. You can't handle the truth. When's the last time you've watched that movie? Oh, gosh. It's been... A few good men. 15 years? 10 years? I don't know. Do you remember it? I remember it, yeah. Yeah. It's a great movie. No, it's not. I'm not saying... Don't hear what I'm not saying.

I'm not saying it's a bad movie. I'd ask Al, but I know he hasn't seen it. I've seen it, and it is great. Yeah, it's a great movie. It's a very good movie. It still holds up. I'm just saying it's a little overrated because that one scene is so great and classic. You just have to have a take on everything, don't you? This is my job. You just got to have a thing. All right. There is a great running back article by Matt DeSorbo up on the website, 25 running back statistics from 2021. You want to further deep dive the running back position after the show?

I encourage you to go check that out. Very interesting stats. You talked about the running back position being different this year. The top 12 running backs for this past season averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game. Gross. Which is the second lowest mark in the past two decades. That would be 20 years if you're listening at home. Injuries to Christian McCaffrey again. Derek Henry, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Camara, they didn't help.

the situation, right? Because points per game-wise, those guys were not at 14.2 points per game. They were going to swing the average northward if they weren't hurt. Right, but they didn't make it into the top 12, at least, you know, at least Chris McCaffrey and Derek Henry. So it's one of those where your top...

running backs this year disappointed. There were a handful, and obviously these are the first guys we're going to get into who were league winners, who were amazing, but the list is so small this year. The running backs really disappointed people, and I think that next year you're going to see a lot more people trying out zero RB. It worked swimmingly this season, but if you take a, you know, a wide enough viewpoint, I don't.

I don't think that we should overreact to one season of massive injuries versus, you know, we talk about every single year, the bust rate of running backs in the first, the bust rate of wide receivers in the first, it's slightly higher for running backs over wide receivers, but it's not that big a difference. This year was really rough. To that point, then, finding, you know, if you goes zero RB, you're finding value at running back late in drafts.

And you could look to this next stat, which is seven running backs drafted in the top 200 this year, all but one outperform their draft position. Yeah, the rookies were great. Naji was drafted at RB11, finished RB4. Giovante was, you know, maybe not the superstar people hope, but RB28 was where he was drafted. He ended up RB17. Michael Carter was drafted at RB35, ended 29. Chuba.

RB 55 into 33, Ramandre above his draft position, Gainwell above his draft position. Trey Serman was drafted higher than almost all of them. In fact, he was drafted higher than Giovante. Mm-hmm. Did not pan out for Trace Herman. Well, I think what happened was you looked at the San Francisco running game in Kyle Shanahan's history and you said, man, a rookie in this system without Rahim Moster could dominate. And we were right.

It was just Elijah Mitchell. It was just the wrong dude, people. It was not the guy that you traded up for in the draft early. It was the one that fell to you late that fewer people knew his name. Yeah, it is the San Francisco running back situation. Here's a prediction for you for 2022. We're not going to know what to do. I predict we won't know because it just ends up murky every year. All right, truth data. Let's start at the running back.

one with Jonathan Taylor. By the way, we're looking at consistency of the running back position. Great games. You're looking at a running back performance over 21 points. Good games. We're defining that as 11 or more. Bus games, fewer than 7 points. Jonathan Taylor won the footy for the running back of the year. Number one in total points. Number two, inconsistency, which might surprise people. 332 carries 1,11 yards, 18 touchdowns.

Yeah, I mean, the consistency, if you remember the very beginning of the year, people that were the anti-Johnathan Taylor's were victory lapping, right? You go into week three, and he had three, he had one mediocre week and two bad weeks, and it looked like he was not going to be the dude that everyone dreamed him to be, and then he was the dude. And he was unstoppable the rest of the way. Never finished outside the top 24, almost.

almost never finished outside the top 12 at the position. He was as consistent as it got from that point on. So it was really the first three weeks of the season where, if you remember, the Colts sucked. They were, I think, one and four to start the year. And then they got it together. They figured it out. And I think what they figured out is Jonathan Taylor is bigger and stronger and faster than most NFL people give him the ball a lot. And that's why he was, you know, mentioned in NFL MVP consideration.

going forward next year, I think you have to assume more of the same. Well, I think what you saw was a team finally committing lots of opportunities to him and that that was a pathway to victory. 41% of the time, great game. So 41% of the time he scored over 21. 82% good, only really 6% bus games. He was.

much. As expected, he took advantage of bad defenses. Ten points better against bottom 16 defenses than he was against top 16, but he still averaged more than that top 12 average against those good defenses. And yeah, he's going to be, I think he'll be drafted the number one. I agree. But I don't know if he will be worth it. I think he will. I do. I, you know.

Would Derek Henry over the last couple of years been worth that number one pick other than the injury this year? Yeah, absolutely. And I think that... Let me rephrase that. I don't think he necessarily has to be. Sure. That's what I mean is I think there are a couple names that you could put into contention, but I think he will be the number one. Yeah, if I have the 101, it will be Jonathan Taylor that I'm picking. I think that they've found their identity in him, and that is what is important. It's the opportunities for the... You know, you talk about...

Is it talent? Is it opportunity? Opportunity is more important? Well, you don't get much more talented than Jonathan Taylor. And now you don't get more opportunity than he's getting. So he is the 101. There are, you know, 18 rushing touchdowns. The most red zone rushing attempts in the history of the NFL. Wow. 89 red zone rushing attempts. If you want to, if you want to talk about things that do fluctuate, you know, 18 touchdowns is not a number that.

is easy to hit over and over again. And maybe you view him through the lens of like, okay, 15 is a foregone conclusion, and that's okay. But those are numbers that can fluctuate. Absolutely. I think 10 is a foregone conclusion. Double-digit touchdowns, that's a guarantee if he plays. And so that's a good enough baseline for me to know that a guy who could lead the league in Yardage, who is involved in the passing game and obviously has a touchdown upside is awesome. Here's a crazy stat.

because it could have been more. Per Matt DeSorbo in the article, 18 different drives where he was tackled on a rushing play inside the five where he did not score on that drive. 18. So 18 more almost touchdowns. 36 rushing touchdowns if they all come to fruition. That's crazy. Pretty good. Yeah. And that, you know, he should, quarterback situation in Indianapolis. Does that change the equation at all?

It would change the equation. Yeah, he's not going to be as good without Carson Wentz there if they pivot. I do not expect them to be able to pivot. I know they want to, but you can want to change your quarterback. It's not easy to just go and find someone off the street that's better than what you have. Are you saying they're in bed with Carson Wentz right now? I am saying that they don't want to be in that they are. Okay. Speaking of that, we want to make Helix sleep. Oh, I see what you did.

That's a comfy bed. For supporting today's show. Oh, boy, that was a rough one. Look, do you sleep on a saggy old mattress? No, I've got a Helix mattress. Okay. I'm talking more to the people out there. Oh, okay. Because I'm sure some people, there was a pickleball plan this weekend. We're supposed to get out and play some pickleball, and then all of a sudden you find out that somebody hurt themselves sleeping, which is what you do once you're like over 30.

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