The TRUTH: Second Tier WRs in 2019 - Fantasy Football Podcast

The last six games of Mari Cooper was on pace for 106 targets versus 126 those first 10. So not that different. All right, Julian Edelman finished at number 10. The dentor of hoods. Yes, yes. Busy this off season. I wonder if there'll be any consequences there. The Patriots wide receiver was the number eight overall in terms of consistency.

You know, this is a pretty good year for Julian Edelman. 56% of the time he had a good game, that 10 or above, 19% great, 19% bust. You know, fantasy owners will probably remember weeks 15, 16, and 17 the most. Yeah. Which he was not worth playing. He was extreme. I mean, this is another Amari Cooper situation, except even with the injury in those last three games, he was still pretty consistent. But those last three games.

If you weren't watching, he was coming in and out. Not the same. His snap count was down. He was clearly very, very injured. If you were to take those three injured games out just to see what he was through the course of the season before that injury, our consistency score would be number two. He was so good all year, so consistent. He never really, you know, let you down because he was.

They're just, you know, Tom Brady didn't have anybody step up in the passing game outside of Julian Edelman. From weeks 5 through 14, he was the wide receiver 3 in half point scoring. Most of the years that Julian Edelman has been out there, he's dealt with some sort of injury for some duration or period of time. Adam Schefter reported this year he played most of the season with partially torn rib cartilage. Oh, he's just a guy that really.

It's a credit to him, but a negative at times of fantasy. A credit to him that he always, he just puts his body on the line on every play, plays as hard as he can, but he's also not 25. And he's reaching the point in his career where I really question, you know, when is the shoe going to drop? What's happening with that offense that slowed down over the back half? What's happening with Tom Brady? Let me ask you this, is this, you know, he's going to be 34 years old.

next year. And when it stops, it just stops. And with this offense, are you drafting Julian Edelman to be a top 10 wide receiver next year? No, but I don't think you've ever had to draft him to be that. No, whenever you have aged possession receivers, a la Larry Fitzgerald and Wes Wilker back in the day and Julian Edelman, the last several years. Even like Emmanuel Sanders in Denver for a while. When you have older possession receivers,

Nobody wants them in fantasy drafts. I think Julian Edelman will be a value this year, assuming Brady is back. You know, he's not going to cost much. I don't even, I would be surprised if he's drafted as a top 20 wide receiver because as soon as the time rolls around when everybody's talking about drafts, it's all upside. It's all new hotness, new breakouts, you know.

That is not what Julian Edelman represents. He, in no way, shape, or form represents some guy that we think is going to have his career best year this year. He's just not. They also, the hard part is New England can't go into the season with the same weapons. You know, part of what happened with Julian Edelman is you brought it up. He was the only guy that could do anything. Nikil Harry was hurt. He didn't even get an opportunity to mature in the offense until the end of the season. All their tight ends were gone.

and you didn't have anybody else step up and play a big role. So I wouldn't be surprised that they try to take some of the load off this guy who played hurt as the focal point of the offense, 153 targets. I'm going to take the under next year by a significant amount. Yeah, I mean, that you guys seem to be on the other side of the fence on that. I definitely think he will be the dominant one.

And I believe most of the core will be the same. I mean, Nikil Harry will be better. He'll be around. He'll hopefully not be injured to start the year like it was this year. They traded for Mohamed Sanu, who then got injured. He should be around. I think the core stays the same. They could really use some tight end help. But I think the connection over, you know, the eight years playing together with Edelman isn't going to be replaced by someone they bring in. Now, apparently on the night he was arrested, he was hanging out with.

Danny Mandola, low health meter, and Paul Pierce. Paul Pierce. Hey, on the truth episode, no less. We're getting this coming out. Oh, very nice. See, I was going to go with a health joke. No, no, Jason's is better. Yeah. All right. Alan Robinson came in at number 11, and that feels perfect to me. It really does. He had a consistency rank of 17.

But he played all 16 games, 98 receptions, 1147 and 7 on 154 targets. That was the third most targets, by the way, at the wide receiver position. Not surprised. Get this man a quarterback. Seriously. It's not fair. It's not fair. What Alan Robinson has had to endure is not fair. Have you heard it? It's not fair. It's pretty fair. They pay him a lot of money. He chose this life.

Fair. You know what I'm saying? I get that he chose this one. Yeah. But to have started your career with Blake Bortles, then he tore his ACL going into the contract year or in his contract year, tore his ACL. So yeah, he took the money from the Bears, but I'm sure the contracts weren't what they should have been. I'm with Jason. It's just what could Alan Robinson have been if he was drafted to a team that actually had.

a stable and good quarterback. It's hard to really say. I mean, the number that you would think changes a little bit would be the touchdown number because he is so capable. But when you're getting 154 targets, almost 100 receptions, over 1100 yards. Trubisky targets, I feel like you have to. Oh, he's got the fifth best contested catch rate. Oh, man. So good. Which is that Trubisky target is the contested target. That's what he specializes in. Six most air yards. A little bit better at home.

A little bit worse against, actually against top 16 defenses. So Alan Robinson was super interesting this past off season. Because I remember just every time we would bring him up, it's like, man, I just don't know what to do with Alan Robinson because he is so good as a player. He didn't really do anything in that first year.

except for you had the monster playoff game. And Trubisky is Mitch Trubisky. I feel like, though, the answer is this. He's like a fringe top 12 wide receiver because his talent overcomes. As long as he remains like this, the target monster for Chicago. He's very much the definition of the target monster.

situation. He is a go-to receiver. He's a third-down receiver. And if you look at his season and you try to find the truth, he succeeded, fantasy-wise, once the offense could move with some other weapons. When Anthony Miller was developing into a weapon, when Montgomery was having slightly more success, weeks 12, 13, 14, 15, those are really, really nice weeks for Alan Robinson.

Well, so here's the one thing that I do want to point out and maybe caution us a little bit on is just the fact that those weeks when that run was happening and his target volume is really the crux of what helped him is we brought it up with Anthony Miller a lot was how much he was advantaged by Taylor Gabriel being out. But they lost Ray Burton. They lost Taylor Gabriel. And yeah, Anthony Miller. Did they lose Burton? Sure. Burton lost himself. Yeah, he's been gone for a while. Healthwise. Nobody's found him actually.

Target-wise, that just meant that it was pretty much those two guys, Anthony Miller and Alan Robinson soaking up all of those targets. You know, he got... What was his target pace, though, between first and second half? Because I wouldn't be surprised if it was the same. Sure, I'll look that up. Because it felt like he was the only guy for the first half. And then Anthony Miller finally showed up and actually demanded some targets. And I guess Gabriel had a run for a little while in the middle of the season. So he was on pace for 142 targets.

through the first eight games. So I did go up. On pace for 166 through the second half of the season. But he is good. And the question is, can things get better for him next year? Yeah. What do you think? No, I don't, I don't think so. I'm just not going to rely on Mitchell Trebisky supporting the top 12 quarterback back to back. Okay. I think I'm not saying it can't happen. I think Alan Robinson is talented. Would you rather have Alan Robinson or Keenan Allen?

Ooh. Next year. Those guys seem like, and would you, would you be comfortable with either one as your one? I would be confident with neither one as my one. You said that in such a funny way. Like, I would be confident in neither. Yeah, but. Very positive denial of both. Yeah. Thank you. Since both of those guys have terrible quarterbacks, I would go with Alan Robinson. Who's a better quarterback, Jason?

Career-wise, definitely Philip Hoover. Oh, this is the best question. Stop it. That has ever happened. Answer the question. Yes. This year, who's a better quarterback? Philip Rivers or Mitch Trubisky? For fantasy? In real life. You have to pick one of them, Jason. Oh, gosh. This is the gross thing. It's not hard. It's Philip Rivers. Stop it. It is Philip Rivers. I understand he hurt you tremendously, but he's still, like.

He has Hall of Fame numbers. Is Philip Rivers right now? Thank you. By a slim margin. I hope these two guys compete for like the conference title next year. I'm not worried. Hey, look, it's Mike Evans. Mike Evans comes in at number 12 with a consistency rank of number 12. Super consistent there. 13 games played 67 for 1157 and 8 on 1118 targets.

Panic in the streets, weeks one and two. It's a weird season. Mike Evans is back. Weeks three and four. Oh, wait. Chris Godwin's the guy week five. Oh, wait. Mike Evans, the guy, week six. Was that the goose egg? It was. Oh, man. 23% of the time, which is a pretty high number. He had a week-winning week. He had multiple number one overall performances. He had a number two against Seattle. Weeks eight and nine. He was the best wide receiver in football. 46% of the time, good games.

He did bust 15% of the time. It was odd. It was strange for a team that passed that much. You would think Mike Evans, of all people, could come down with it. And he took advantage of bottom 16 passing defenses. He scored an extra, what, the gap was 6.39 points between top 16 and bottom 16. It was a weird year for Mike Evans. Weird. The me.

games were plentiful for him. The games were, he didn't bust and kill you. Now, he did that a couple times like a goose. But he had a handful of those games that were meh. And the way that our scoring system works is that those really great games are factored into consistency as well, as well they should be, because, you know, that.

That pretty much helps your team when a guy has these big blow-up games. But Mike Evans did enough this year. There were so many targets going around from James to those two wide receivers where both were absolutely excellent. But the question was asked last episode. Would you rather have Mike Evans or Godwin going into next year? I think Andy and I, we disagreed. I was on the Godwin side. Where did you land? I'm on Godwin's side. Oh, you are? Yeah, I am. With the volume, the 67 receptions this year, I know he missed three games.

I'm going to lean Godwin. It's tough not to lean Godwin. I mean, we're in recency bias, but it... Or are we just going to take whoever costs less? The truth is that Mike Evans was far less consistent. That's the truth. He was. And it's... What was nice about Tampa Bay, I mean, a breath of fresh air was, like, this was the Bruce Aryan system. Just look at the Arizona Cardinals and just copy paste that over to...

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers when he moved. I mean, you need to throw in a few more interceptions because that was what they had to deal with with James. But, I mean, Chris Godwin was Larry Fitzgerald, where Larry was left for dead by most of us. And then Bruce Ariens comes in and turns him right back into a thousand yard wide receiver because he's the slot guy. Yeah. I mean, Evans is always a threat to lead the league in touchdown passes. Right. He's always a threat to.

What did I say passes? Not helpful. It's all right. Not helpful. Yeah. And touchdown catches, you know, not necessarily going to be a volume guy the way Godwin is. So I'm going to slide on that consistency. I'm still into Evans. So please don't hear that I'm, yeah, this is anti Mike Evans at all. But when you're constructing your team. So how do you look at them compared to like the digs stealing situations of years past where you're like, do you just take the better draft value? Man.