Fantasy Football - Breakout Picks + MEGALABOWL is BACK! - Podcast for 8/19

more respect within that room. They don't need him. They're not going to give him bel cow usage. They're not going to pay him, you know, an extension. And so it's as much him as it is the team. It's not just a team being like, we hate, we hate Brian Robinson because we've got Bill. He doesn't want a little role on the team. Exactly. And so it's like, well, we don't need you. I, I will say you're, I don't disagree with what you're saying that Bill is the reason that maybe you now have a. running back room that really does not need Brian Robinson. But as of right now, Bill is third on the depth target. And while he did have a very nice 29-yard rushing touchdown last night, I mean, I couldn't have scored that, but that was a- You would have got 15. I would have got 15. Austin Echler is, to me, the value here. He was good last year. He was on a per touch base. Really good on a per test.

per touch basis, had a lot of fantasy finishes. For tusses. As a top 24 back. Watch out for it. Got hurt. That's not good. But he is, he's the starter here. And I think he's still talented. And he'll be drafted so much behind. Like the crazy thing is right now on the depth chart, Bill's third. Would you agree with that? Currently. Yeah. Week one, week one. Yeah, I view him second, but go ahead. So week one, I think officially he will run behind. Chris Rodriguez behind Austin Echler. He will be drafted first in fantasy drafts next weekend. He won't get ahead of Echler? Oh, I know. Well, that's stupid. Dude, he, I think he will. That's my point is I think he's going to, I think he's going to be drafted at a stupid spot. Well, we've got, we got more news to talk about. We're going to have to take a break. We'll talk about the rest of the news and then get into breakouts. Foot Clan, draft day is on the way. You got your rankings. You got those sleepers. You got you can't miss picks. But you know what? You need sometimes.

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Head coach Mike McDaniel talking about Devon A-chan, we got it revealed. It was a calf. So he's unlikely to practice next week. You don't want calf. You don't want hammy. No. You're okay with the groin because you can get back a little quicker. The calf. Man, there was another running back last year with the calf issue. Yeah, who was that? Yeah. Yeah, Christian McCaffery. I really hated when I heard it was calf. I was like, no. For a small speedy guy. Would you have preferred calf or hamstring? Because we already knew it was a soft tissue lower body. Well, I would have preferred groin. Doesn't groin still count there? Yeah, okay, okay, it does. I mean, that's, the groin's up higher. Yeah, but it's the top of the lower body. Yeah, it's the top of the lower body. Yeah, it's the top of the lower. Yeah, for sure. It's not. It's the low part of the mid. It's the low part of the mid. It's the low part of the mid.

No, oh, the mid is the mid is got to be near arms. You're in lower body. Yeah. You're up, you're almost adjacent to hip bones. You're adjacent lower. I mean, you're at the top of the bottom. It's definitely a lower body. I'd rather have groin. You're saying your groin isn't lower body. I'm saying your groin is, it's low to mid. Wait 10 years. Okay. I don't have to wait long. All right. But this is bad. This is bad. And you start to put Ollie Gordon into kind of a sleeper category for the dolphins. And you also have to up the risk grading and worry a little bit about A-chan who has top five potential, but you don't want him to miss time and you don't want him to battle. You know, what was it? Like his rookie season. How many? Didn't he miss multiple? He did. So he only played 11 games in 2023 his rookie season. But the problem was missing three separate times. Yes. Different injuries. Knee.

That was always the worry. I mean, it is always the worry with an undersized back. Like there's a smidge of Bucky Irving worry for me. When you've got a guy who's actually getting massive workload, if you've got, you know, a 200 pound, sub 200 pound running back that is going to try to go out there and touch the ball 300 times, 275 times, it's physically difficult to do that over the course of 17 games. Yeah. So not exciting news heading into the season. Teteroa McMillan, a my guy for Mike. Tetaroa McMy guy, hamstring injury. Don't love it. Might not play in the preseason game. Hopefully he can get back. Jalen McMillan, it's a severely sprained neck. He will miss some time. Not going to be ready for the season opener. You have Godwin on the pup. McMillan with a neck injury. Likely to be on the pup, but yes. You have Kate Otten, who's just returning.

with a hamstring injury. Now that's a beneficiary, right? If you don't have Godwin and McMillan, Cade Otten was a phenom for several weeks last year. Rashad White still dealing with the groin injury and they don't have their left tackle. So injuries, not great situation for Tampa. Sean McVeigh said they'll continue to take things a day at a time with Stafford. Tell us more. Actually, I can because one of the quotes, it made no sense to me. You can explain it. They said something about his back being upright for week one. That's what the hope was. They're hoping his back was upright. I've never heard that expression before. As opposed to laying down. They don't want him laying down in week one, Mike. I don't think any football player. No. Like a pre sack. Yeah. He's just on the bench. He's taking. He lays down. That's how he takes the snap. I mean, there are still throw. He's got great arm strength. There are people out there. And I'm not, I am not one of them now.

But there are people out there that think that the Matthew Staffordback injury is more severe than the Rams even new. And there are people taking Puka and Devante Adams basically off their draft board because moving them down means you don't get them. Right. So it's like if you're not willing to take them anywhere near their ADP, they're off the board. If I'd take Pooka in the third, well, you can't. Right. So that is, it did make me nervous. I was in a draft yesterday. Second round. Late second round, Pooka's sitting there. Late second. I took them. Okay, I was going to say late seconds where... I took them, but it did make me, like, my finger held above the mouse. Man, I'd pull the trigger there. I would. I did. And it feels like it could be a trap. Yeah, I mean, it's not like he will be not productive if Stafford misses, but he won't be Pooka. Right. It'll be Pooka light. And that will make me sad. And then Quinn Sean Judkins still hasn't reached a deal with the Browns. They are, there's a chance that like...

We need to see the disciplinary process in the NFL take place before Judkins signs a deal with the Browns, which could happen. So, you know, there's leverage being played there, but Judkins's not going to be on the field. Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me. I mean, there's there has to be contractual implications of this of like if you go before you've even signed and you're suspended for a character issue. I'm sure that then the Brown's lawyers are going to put a whole bunch of things in that to protect the team. Groins, groin muscles and adductors, both consider lower body muscles. Yeah, because I agree that they're lower body. If a boxer hits someone in the groin, they have gone, they've gone lower body. It's just not. We're not like, oh, we hit him in the midbody. No, no, you're right. I'm not.

I'm arguing to argue. All right. That was news and note sponsored by progressive insurance quote today at progressive.com, progressive casualty insurance company affiliates and third party insurers. Not available in all states or situations covered subject to policy terms, limits, and conditions. It's time. Breakouts. All right. How would you define a breakout to a fantasy football player out there? What is your definition? I think the easiest way to understand a breakout is that next year this player will be drafted. many rounds ahead of where they're being drafted this year. They're drafted to be a starter. Yeah, exactly. A starter or a star, depending on where they're currently being drafted. But breakout means they will not be anywhere near where you're drafting them next year. So we have consensus breakouts, sleepers, values, bus, all in the UDK, players that we've agreed upon. We have our my guys, we've mentioned them recently, but a breakout candidate individually that we both see with a path forward.

That's the opportunity today to share those names. I'm going to let Jason kick us off if he if he's willing and able. I am not. Okay. Go for it. Pass. By the way, both of you. No, I'm good. Your recovery counts. Oh, yeah. Your recoveries. You're present. Yeah. I feel like a human today yesterday off the back of that travel weekend and. wedding time. I was hollow inside. And so today I'm back. Mine is second year, wide receiver, a first round NFL draft pick. Those are usually things that automatically mean the next year the players drafted very high. I'm talking about 49ers wide receiver, Ricky Pearsall. This is a player that I liked as a prospect coming in. I think he's got exceptional hands. It's got enough speed, good route running.

Now, we don't know how his rookie season would have gone if he didn't get shot in the chest. Yeah. Like, he shouldn't be alive where, I mean, he was an inch away from death. And then he still got a beast. He still got back on the field in week seven. Didn't do a ton last year, but he did have a few flashes. You know, week 10, four for 73 and a touchdown. At the end of the year, he really. Flash the exciting upside. Eight for 141 and 1 on 10 targets against Detroit and 6 for a nice 69 and 1 on eight targets in week 18 at Arizona. So this is a guy who it's like, okay, we saw some examples on the field of him being able to dominate an NFL game as a rookie who's a first round draft pick. It's what he's supposed to do. And then you look around the team and you're like, okay, well, Brandon Ayuk is not ready.

Debo Samuel is gone, which we didn't bring Debo up, but he actually looked last, I mean, it's, you know, very little to see, but he looked like Debo to me last night. Anyways, we'll see how long that gas tank lasts. I do, I think Debo's being stupidly ignored. I'm starting to believe that as well. But you know, you have Jennings currently injured. The whole wide receiver team, other than Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Ricky Pearsall are injured. So get those three players. This is a team that is projected to score, I think, like the third most points, according to Vegas in the league. They're a 10 and a half win, you know, expectation. Their schedule is super easy. Brock Purdy's good. Brock Purdy got paid. And Ricky Pearsall should be the number one wide receiver for this team. And he doesn't cost you that much. It's one thing to say that a player has opportunity.

and is being underdrafted or undervalued. It's another to have the talent level that Pearsall has, and still, like, not every player with opportunity has ceiling, and Pearsall has ceiling. Yes. He can be the most dominant player on that roster for years to come. Ironically, despite missing half of his year and not being that involved, he had three games of 15 or more fantasy points. The list of rookie wide receivers with three games of 15 plus fantasy point games. in the second half of the season, it's all great other than Christian Watson. I mean, it's Tyree Kill, Jou, Debo, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Ayuk, Ammoneraw St. Brown, Jalen, Jamar Chase, and then Christian Watson. So Pearsall's in good company with what he was able to do in limited action. And his opportunity is like, it's going to be really telling if he doesn't do good. Maybe he's, you know, maybe he's stink. No, he's going to be great. And there's huge opportunity there.

That team was being ignored. You didn't see those performances because they were a bad team. So the end of the year, they were not relevant. So you missed Pierce-Sal's breakout. That is why his ADP is where it's at. Where is his ADP? His ADP right now is the wide receiver 43 in the ninth round. Oh, baby. 10th round on ESPN, ninth round on Yahoo. And so definitely undervalue, definitely a great breakout pick, a perfect breakout pick. I feel like I want to play on ESPN again. Because every player that I like, their ADP on ESPN is just ruinedly low. That's not a word. Nah, I'm sticking with it. I like it. I knew what you meant. Yeah. Mike didn't even blink. All right, Mike, you've got a breakout candidate. What's his name? I'm going with Tucker Kraft, tight end for the Green Bay Packers as my personal breakout pick. Last year, like, it's the trans. You have to, you know, remember the whole story.

of Luke Musgrave drafted before Tucker Kraft. He felt like, okay, well, draft order says he's supposed to be the guy for the Green Bay Packers. And Luke was the guy, the rookie year. And then he gets hurt going into year two, and Tucker Kraft kind of just takes over. But it was snap count-wise immediately apparent. No, Tucker Craft has played his way into being the receiving tight end for the Green Bay Packers. Last year, you know, 700 yards. seven touchdowns. And in year two, I've talked about an ADP study I've done where tight ends who break out in year two, they return on a high percentage of their ADP in year three. And right now, Tucker Kraft is going into this year. He's the only one who fits that criteria for me. So I already liked him because of that. Like, you know, historically the percentage chance is there.

And I put this in here, and Kyle's helping, you know, dig up some goodness. And it's like, okay, tied in since the year 2000, that put up 707 in year two. And the list is Antonio Gates, Chris Cooley, Jimmy Graham, Mark Andrews. All these guys who hit those number, and look, a lot of them. massively outplayed what Tucker Kraft did, you know, not comparing him to Graham or Gronk, but just saying the trajectory, the players who did that, you know, the 707 the next year, all of them were at least top six in year three. And Tucker Kraft watching him be just a yards after catch machine last year, 8.8 yards after catch. Two full.

Two yards higher than the next qualified tight end. And we had some fun debates about Tucker Craft about how easy were they. And then we went back and watched those big touchdowns. It's like, oh, Tucker Craft is putting bodies in the ground. And he's just, he's fast. He's big. He's tough. We look at the wide receiver room for the Green Bay Packers. And it, yeah, they spent it first on Matthew Golden. There's some, you know, draft Twitter had huge debates of. Does Matthew Golden belong there because where his profile is? Is he just more of a better help for Jordan Love? Can Matthew Golden make that jump? But then the wide receiver room is just, it's talked about all the time because there's no true standout yet. We all have our favorite guys in the room, but I don't think any of us look at and go, yep, that's a number one fantasy football option. If Jane Reed is your guy, that's a great player. But fantasy-wise, Jane Reed, other than a couple weeks last year,

was actually harmful for your fantasy football team. And I think that there is a chance that Tucker Kraft takes the role of being like maybe the number two option in this. Double digit touchdowns are in the range of outcome for the way that Matt Lefleur and Jordan Leff have played historically. I think he is a great upside shot towards the double digit rounds. He's outside of that range, you know, where we don't like to spend the draft capital on the tight end because they just historically rounds five through seven. don't pay off. But I like Tucker Kraft as someone who can break into the top six and maybe even make a little bit more noise. I think his talent is undeniable. I think he's a really good tight end. I did notice in the preseason when Jordan Love was out there getting reps, a really nice, it was an incompletion, but a deep seam route to Luke Musgrave in the middle of that game. So just remembering that he's back there out on the field, Musgrave will not take crafts, you know, the majority of his passing game work, but it was a reminder that there's

some other players in the mix. I think Kraft is undervalued. He's in that tier of tight end, though, where I think, you know, five touchdowns, you're not happy, eight touchdowns, you're super happy. I think, sadly, you know, there are certain tight ends that just fit that role of like, if the touchdowns go their way, you're going to be thrilled with the season. There's a bunch of guys in that four or five, you're not happy, seven or eight, you're super happy. To be honest, that's the vast majority of all tight ends. I mean, once you're past the top three, it's like, who's going to, who's going to be good? Well.

Who ends up getting eight touchdowns? And if you want to make a bet on that, Kraft seems like a decent bet. I've come around quite a bit because I know to start this offseason, I was not bullish on Kraft. I felt like this too many wide receivers, too many other ways to score, another tight end. But I think as I've dug deeper, watched film again, Kraft himself is a really good weapon. And this is a good offense. So if you want to say who could get seven or eight touchdowns, you look at Sam Leporta, this is a good player on a good offense. He's not the number one target. You know, you've got Ammonrae St. Brown there. You've got Jameson Williams. You've got Jemir Gibbs out of the backfield. It's not easy for Leporta to go out there and be the number one tight in again, but we know he could because he could get a bunch of touchdowns. I see that somewhat similarly for a, you know, when I'm doing my late round targets.

I just want who could be good. Who could have upside there? And there's not a lot of them. All right. We will take a quick break. By the way, I've got my breakout candidate still to reveal. And then we pulled the Foot Clan over on our Foot Clan Discord and got some of their favorite breakout picks. We'll show with you as well. Today's show is brought to you by our friends at Viori. Whether you're heading to the gym, running errands, or just lounging at home, Viori has you covered. Let's talk about the Sunday performance jogger. It's part of the Sunday collection. It's everyone's favorite jogger. It's a fresh take on ath leisure, and it's a staple in your wardrobe. The fit is flattering. And thanks to the soft, lightweight, four-way performance stretch, it moves with you, no restriction. Viori offers a new perspective on performance apparel made to work out in, but also stylish and comfortable enough to wear all day. And the best part, shopping is easy, finding what you need on the website.

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As the largest online therapy provider in the world, BetterHelp can provide access to mental health professionals with a diverse variety of expertise. Talk it out with BetterHelp. Our listeners get 10% off their first month at betterhelp.com slash footballers. That's betterhELP.com slash footballers. All right. Well, we found a spot for this guy. I think he has. received a lot of buzz and optimism and excitement and i think he's such an interesting player especially of the adp i think is still slightly depressed as in like he this was a player i figured people would just be guns blazing you're like just real hot and bothered to get him and the adp is not it and uh you still don't know who that player is out there so i'm never going to tell you but you should get him get him bit

based off of this. Here's a hint. He's the wide receiver 35 by 80P on Sleeper. There you go. Yeah, go look it up. All right. That's it for today's show. No, it's Roma Dunseh, a second year sophomore wide receiver for the Chicago Bears. You just mentioned it. Wide receiver 35 off the board, eighth round pick in all leagues pretty much, maybe seventh round in Sleeper. Last year, this was, I think the focal point here, part of the argument for Roma Dunzae is. He might have done the best he could do in light of the circumstances around him. With the performance of Caleb Williams, the fact that this was one of the worst offenses by way of play calling in the entire NFL. I mean, there were dead last in EPA on first downs, constantly put themselves into horrible down-and-distance situations. Rome did not have the season that people hoped from a top 10 pick. He was the wide receiver 47.

He was kind of like Marvin Harrison Light in terms of like he was out there a lot. He had over 100 targets. That's very rare for a rookie to do. But it was 54 for 734 and 3. And Keenan Allen dominated targets. DJ Moore was there. You had, you know, just so many problems on the offensive side of the football. So he was a disappointment last year. But I think this is the year that Roma Dunzei makes it happen. And part of that is, you know, Ben Johnson's coming in. Yes, the Bears have won the preseason again. It's great. And they looked good in the last preseason game. But.

You know, Keenan Allen has departed. He was a target monster for this roster. And this is a perfect situation for Caleb Williams and Roma Dunesay to grow up together with this Ben Johnson situation. And one of the things that has stood out to me this offseason, when you pay attention to what's happening at camp, these two are, it's a dynamic connection every day in camp. Like these two players, the Red Zone, Roma Dunesay is a true alpha type of wide receiver. And, you know, a lot of the talk from the beat writers out there in chicago uh gregg brags came out and talked about this basically saying look they're trying to figure out how dj more even fits in the system right now like mike has been vocal about luther burden that's a player picked by you know this head coach second round pick you know they they have roma duncee who their head coach ben johnson has come out and talked so much about and dj more sitting here getting backfield carries all the time and we talked about dj more in the short area targets like

He does not necessarily fit this offense the way that Roman Dunesay does. You know, Braggs also came out and said it's becoming very clear that Caleb Williams and Roma Dunesay are going to be a deadly duo in their second season. Those are the players making the headlines all the time. Honestly, we have not talked about D.J. Moore that have not been a lot of, you know, camp reports around D.J. Moore. We know he's a great player, but I don't think that the future of this team is going to be built around D.J. Moore. It's around Loveland, Burden, and Adunze. there is no Keenan Allen. I think you can see a significant tier jump for him. And when you look at, if you're a top 10 pick at wide receiver and you get over 100 targets as a rookie, 75% of those guys historically end up top 24 in year two. So your odds are pretty good. There have been a couple, I think it was like Drake London and Garrett Wilson actually that didn't do it in the last like decade. And those are still players that eventually did it. So it's like 100 targets, top 10 pick, very good recipe for bounce back.

Very good recipe for success. And a good player. And a really good player. He is legitimately good. There was nothing on film of his doing that you were like, oh, man, I'm not sure about that rookie season. So, yeah, I think, I think Rome is set up for a tremendous amount of success this year. If this offense moves the needle at all, if it gets to the middle of the pack, I'm really excited. Come on, Caleb. We need you. Please be good. I was. You know, like I said, I was very surprised that the ADP has held for Rome. I was pretty prepared going through the off-season process to just be 100% out on Rome. Not that I don't see the path for it, just of with all, in that path, there's so many options for everything to go. But with the way the news, and he's trended on DJ Moore and the ADP, the upside case is tremendous. And when you're in the seventh,