Mid-Round Madness + Fraud Offenses - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/2

Well, if Zeke can still do that one thing and score those touchdowns down near that, that's what they're going to start the season trying to do. They're going to try to run it in. It's the better thing to do when you get into the red zone to the five zone. You know, that's where offices usually work a little bit better. This offensive line should be better this year than last year. And if you look at the depth chart around him, Rico Dattle might be a better running back than him. But he's not going to usurp the veteran best friend. the quintessential cowboy because it's not like he's twice as good as Zeke and there's just no way to keep Rico Dowdle off the field. He's, you know, he'll spell him. And if you look at who he's going near in ADP, the four running backs, there's a lot in common. You got these are the four back to back to back. Austin Echler, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, and Gus Edwards. And all of them are kind of, they're older, they have big problems.

But it's like, okay, what about the offenses? The commander's offense isn't going to be good. We don't expect Nick Chubb is coming off a devastating knee injury and won't be ready to go. Zeke is literally on a top five offense. Yeah, and they were number one in Red Zone plays per game last year. So you talk about opportunity. I think the Gus Edwards v. Zeke question is a really good one. Both of them are past their prime as running backs go. Both of them are grinders. both of them pose or position themselves as huge red zone threats like I think that'll be a really tough decision for people to make especially if things sift out depth charge wise for both teams like in practice Gus and Dobbins their first one together they split first team reps like

It's pretty easy for me because Gus does not usually catch passes. And Zika Elliott will. So you're very Zika on that. I'm easily Zika. I'm not bullish about Zika. I do think that there is a limit to his ceiling. He won't be on a lot of my rosters. But if I'm, you know, this is another one of those zero RB type of guys. You know, if you're going seven, eight rounds without getting a running back and then all of a sudden in the 10th round, you can get a starting fine running back. Like that's a strong. total fantasy points at the end of a week build that you can do. If I've got a bunch of running backs ahead of them, I would rather, you know, I'd rather be taking a Jonathan Brooks type that could surprise and have some unknown ceiling because he's really young, talented, explosive player. I think Gus Edwards versus Zeke comes down to, do you think that Gus Edwards will have so many more touchdowns than Ezekiel Elliott, which?

like that's not impossible that there's going to be so much volume for the chargers and when they get in close they're going to try and run it in will can his touchdowns outpace the production of zeke catching the ball that's that's the question you have to ask yourself when debating the two and and i do want to mention for njoku i just think that the opportunity for him to continue the breakout is there i want to put that out there because not only did he have one of the most prolific endings of the season where like you know that matters. Like it matters to show what you can put on film. But also like a lot has been made of like his splits are worse with Deshaun Watson. Now Watson wasn't there during that stretch. That's true. But like his Watson splits were like you're still over 600 yards. You're still at five touchdowns. And without him you were a lot better. But like if that's your floor is that you're a plus 600 yard five touchdown player with the upside that we saw at the end of the year to take over the league.

I just think Titan 10 is kind of floor for Najoku. Where are you guys with him when you look at, you know, Bowers going ahead of him or the Goddard's in that range? Right. I don't feel like Najoku is getting vaulted to this place where it's just everybody is riding four weeks of last year. Well, there's a player who's going right around David Najoku that I'm going to talk about later that I would take over him. The. The hardest part for me with David Njoku is he is a player where it should work. Like this isn't, I don't have the conviction of a full season of evidence or at least just even some glimpses of when he was playing with Watson of, oh yeah, Deshaun Watson, aka Voldemort, will utilize David Njoku like Joe Flacko did at the end of the season.

because of his age when the breakout is coming of like he's entering year eight and that was really the first time where you've seen david nojoku dominant for a stretch of time you've seen plays and games and things like that because the dude is he checks so many boxes of what you want for a breakout tight end but because he is in this position of it should work and i have one more tight end that i'm a little more confident in i'm probably passing on his target pace was 156 targets in the not the final four weeks the final 11 weeks his pace was 156 targets so you talk about intentionality or listening to the head coach say I'm going to get him the football well the thing about that quote with the the I'm going to get him the football which is great to hear from you know you want manufactured touches for tight ends you want a design game plan where you're saying we are trying to get the ball in the hands but as he did talk he talked about how

you know, the quarterbacks have different tendency as the play goes on. You've just got to, you know, go where you go. And that is a big difference between what we saw with Flacco versus what we saw with Deshawn Watson. And, you know, you can give that longer stretch. But the truth is when Deshaun Watson left, he's from week 11 is when he was injured and gone. So 11 through 17, which is seven games. I mean, he was on pace for 167 targets. That's elite wide receiver. He was on pace for 104 receptions. I mean, this was unbelievable usage from Flacco just constantly. You know, if there's pressure, boom. Outlet, outlet, outlet, outlet. That was probably two other guys, too, in that stretch. Sure. Because Flacco was only a part of it. But you also, like, not taking away what Nujoku did, but there was also a, you could look at that time.

of the schedule of seeing which teams were struggling against the tight-end position. It was something like, I mean, Andy, you identified, look at David Najuku's schedule. Yes. No, you're right. This should happen. Tight-ins, it's a place you can do that with. So because that was a part of it as well. I mean, it should work. It's really hard for me, because I know the name you're going to, is it part of today's show? Yes. All right, so we'll pivot. It's funny. Today's almost the, it's a tight-in show because we're talking about the, the, who's the value in the middle rounds and you kind of have to pick your tight end poison in the middle rounds often. Yeah, and ours are later than yours, Jason, but the, uh, Jake Ferguson is the name. Yes. We can go on to Mike's two picks, but that is such a dichotomy of, of ability. Like Ferguson was, was red zone touchdown efficiency. Yeah. The joku is athleticism targets. Like even with Watson, he's at a hundred target pace. Like you're talking about two totally different types of tight ends going in the exact same spot.

Yes. So talk about your two names. So I would 100% agree with that of that if it works for David Najoku, like if it, if Watson was on the sideline and went, oh, I didn't realize that guy could do that. I'm going to feature him. Nojoku is someone who can make a gigantic leap and like legit finish as a top four tight end. I don't know that Jake Ferguson can make that type of a jump, but he is. He was Dak Prescott's second favorite target last year, 102 targets. It was the second most on the team. That's a good number. He finishes the tight end number eight, over 760 yards. And it comes down to just how they utilize him up the seam. Like he gets moved around a lot. He gets used in the slot a good amount. And then there's just a fact of where Jokka's going into season eight. This is season three for Ferguson. And essentially like,

It's his second year as a starter. His first year, it was Dalton Schultz, and Ferguson was barely on the field. So for game action, I mean, that was the first time that Ferguson's ever been the focal point, almost similar to, like, a rookie. And looking at can he get better over that time? I guess you do have, technically, you have Luke Schoonmaker, who was a second round pick, tight end, who was just hurt all of last year. Maybe he somehow gets worked in more. Jake Ferguson, like he led all tight ends in red zone targets. Like he is an absolute go-to player. Number three in the NFL of all receivers in red zone. Yeah, so highly utilized where exactly in the green area or the red zone and then turns into the green zone. And he actually underperformed in terms of how many touchdowns he should have scored. He should have scored over seven. Meanwhile, all five of his touchdowns came into the red zone. Do you guys?

Where are you guys with Jake Ferguson before I bring him my other name? He is one of the later guys. I'm fine pulling. I'm fine pulling the trigger on either one of those players. Pick one. Njoku or Ferguson. They're going in the same spot. Same spot. 8.05. I think I would take Njoku over Ferguson simply because of the extreme athleticism and the hope that he does become a hyper-targeted number two in the offense. I like both. Both over Bowers? Definitely. Bowers is going ahead of him. Yeah, in some, yeah, some leagues. I mean, you know, you know me. I don't, I don't do the, I don't do the rookie tight end. I just don't do it. And obviously, I'll take an L on Sam Laporta last year. And then I will take no other Ls in my life, so far. So I'm, you know, 99 and 1. But, yeah, I'm doing this a long time. I'm, uh,

I'm fine with either of those guys. I think they both have avenues. And I had Ferguson a lot last year. I watched that when they, I mean, he is a very, very vital piece of how they work in the red zone. He should have had so many more touchdowns. And so maybe that's a talent issue. And he's just not good enough to come down with those. Could be. But also he's going into third year, getting better, more acclimated. And. You know, those things just bounce the wrong way some years and bounce the right way other years. He will have opportunity to score touchdowns. It's ironic because if Zeke does really, really well, if Zeke is a good value, Ferguson won't be because both of those guys to me are coming on the backs of touchdowns. That's a pretty interesting to see them tied together like that. Right. So it's like, do you think their running game is going to work in the red zone or do you think they're going to have to rely on the past game in the red zone again? The other name I want to talk about and he keeps getting talked about on this show.

for good reason, and yet he is, his ADP still holds pretty strong in the sixth round at the RB19. It is James Connor of the Arizona Cardinals. Where's he at? Our 602 on Sleeper, running back 19. Yes, James Connor has a lot of red flags that we like to avoid of how old he is. He's going into year eight. Like these are, being 29 and going into year eight, these are, that's the age cliff, that's season cliff. But it doesn't, it hasn't mattered yet for James Connor. I think we were scared when he was 27 going in the year six. We've been scared every year of James Connor's career. And like, I want to start the conversation of talking about what is going on in with the backups for the Arizona Cardinals. Trey Benson, exciting rookie. He was my number one rookie running back. Like I liked him more than Brooks. And.

They took him in the third round, and yet we still haven't heard. It's still a jumble. They have Michael Carter there. They have Trey Benson there. Amari DeMarcato, the Fab dumpster that is D. Markato. Oh, my gosh. The Fab dumpster? Guys, he took all my money last year. He burned all your FAB last year. He took all of my FAB and I needed him. And he did nothing. Om-nom, num, num, num, num, num, he just threw it in the garbage. Oh my gosh. Like his name is still in the mix. Everything about the backup running back situation is it's all up in the air, which it points further to James Connor for this year is solidified. He is the guy. This was his first season of over a thousand rushing yards, which is pretty wild because he just keeps getting close. And over the final five games of the season, he was averaging over 22 fantasy points, nearly 24 opportunities.

100 rushing yards and one and a half touchdowns in that stretch. This is an absolute dominant player over that time. The last two years, really, we've seen James Connor. Add on top of that, the Cardinals offense is going to be one of those that takes one of the biggest steps that we've seen from the previous year of a full season of Healthy Kyler, an addition of a true number one alpha in Marvin Harrison, Jr. James Connor, to me, where he's going in round six is just, it's a free. top 20 running back to me. He is, uh, with, with room to be even higher. Those five game stretch, he would have, he would have had 353 attempts. They just rode him. He's going to miss a couple games. I understand that. He was great when Kyler came back was awesome last year. This team relies on him. He is a leader of the team. I, when we first, you know, we're putting together our, you know, our mid round madness and who we like in those middle rounds, he really stood out.

I just didn't want to pick him as, you know, oh, you're a Homer, your Cardinal, whatever. He is a good pick. He's going to score. He's going to be involved, and he's, he is an exceptional running back for his age right now. So Connor or David Montgomery? I would rather have Connor. I think we've talked about this in the past. If I'm relying on this player as a starter, and probably in the sixth round, it's going to be an important, like at least a flex, then I would rather have Connor. For some reason, I'm loaded at running back. then I still love the upside of an injured Gibbs down the line that would vault David Montgomery to a league winner. Connor Jones, Aaron Jones, in the middle rounds. That's James Connor by a lot for me. That's Connor for me as well. Oh, really? DeAndre Swift? It's Connor. So, yeah, I mean, where he's going, it seems like a good value. So my two mid-round madness guys are Dalton Kincaid and Ladd McConkey. So this is a little bit of a...

of a tight-in show because that's where you've got to mine the earth and find the right tight-ins to get. I find myself ending a lot of mock drafts with Dalton Kincaid. I've said it many times for the off-season. I want one of those top five guys. And I don't want to be the one to pull the trigger first. I don't want to spend the most on Sam Laporta. I'm fine with where Kelsey's going. I love where McBride is going. But, you know, when you're in those rounds, you don't always get to dictate who falls to you. But it seems like Dalton Kikade continues to fall. Dawson Knox, you brought him up earlier. He's got, you know, he's getting pub. He's getting some juice. He's getting the GM loves them. The GM is going to love everyone on the roster because they drafted. You don't see the GMs talking too much smack against players that they drafted. Usually it's the coach. But the wide receiver depth chart that besmirched Buffalo earlier this episode is the reason why Donkicade was an...

awesome prospect. Like I know I was out on him last year because he was a rookie, but he had an awesome for a rookie tight end season. Like one of the top 10 best. It wasn't great for fantasy because it almost never is. But what he showed on the field was he's got it. He is what they drafted him to be, which is a sensational pass catching tight in. And now they need him. And he's tied to Josh Allen, not as like most of these. Most of these guys are the number two target. Like, Trey McBride, it's great to be the number two target. You hope David Najoku, you know, is the number two target ahead of Jerry Judy because that would be really, really good. There's only a handful of guys that are the number one. You know, the Kelsey, even Leporta's not the number one. And, you know, there's, look, there's Kelsey, there's Andrews, and there's Dalton Kikade, who has a legitimate shot of being the primary target. So in the fifth round, as the final...

tight end of the guys who I could see take that leap forward to becoming a league winner status. I like him there. Yeah, I think Kincaid is, just get a little bit of the hesitation with Dawson Knox because this was a player that like, if Kincaid had not been surprised drafted by the bills, Knox would have been receiving the same levels of hype and excitement as, as, you know, the Nojoku and Ferguson because, I mean, he broke the franchise record for touchdowns in 2021. They gave him a big bag of money. He had, um, you know, 40, 50 plus receptions in those games. I'm just worried about the occasional disappointment, but Kincaid has the, he's got the ceiling to be the best tight-in in football if that's the way that the team chooses to funnel the football, you know, through him. So I'm very excited at it. It is your choice there is to take the last of the five. The, yeah. His ADP is the last of the five great ones. That's right. And so that's why I end up with him often. It makes sense. When I'm in the fourth, third, second rounds, there's,

There are super, super duper valuable wide receivers and running backs that I usually can't, I can't get Trey McBride who I want. I don't think he's a bad value where he's going, but it's like, yeah, I just want this running back. I want this wide receiver just so much more. And in the fifth, I go, well, I don't want to go week to week streaming the tight end position this year, and I got a chance. These four picks behind where Andrews is going. How big is that gap to you? Between Andrews and Kincaid? Yeah, that's massive. To me if they were. There's only four picks and ADP.

Yeah, so if they were at the exact same spot, if they were, you know, I'm on the clock. I'm definitely taking Andrews. And Andrews is more proven. We know he's the number one. We know he can do it. He's a touchdown machine. Obviously, injury risk, but I would take him. You know, the mid-round madness looking. I pretty much was looking in the fifth round. Andrews is in the fourth. They're close together, and I think they're both good values. But, yeah, I do end up. Like, I mean, we've seen it. We could go back to the mock drafts. It's just over and over and over and over when I am on the clock, wherever I am, it's him left. I don't, I've never had the chance to go, oh, should I do Andrews or Kincaid here when, when I get to that round? What are you hoping for? Like, like, 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns. No, but like, what are you realistically hoping that Dalton Kincaid's improvement is of, like last year, what was he, 589 yards? Yeah, what he was at?

No, he had to be higher than that. 6.73. 6.73, sorry. My hope is that he is involved around the end zone. That is my hope. That's what's going to move the needle. He will have a ton of targets, a ton of receptions, and plenty of yards in this offense to be a top tight in. I hope he gets 100 receptions. I've got him for 90 receptions. That's how I've got him stats. We both have them that high. The splits are interesting, though. First, he was with, he was a rookie first six weeks with Dawson Knox just under four targets a game. Then he went, you know, week seven through 10 without Knox goes up to eight targets a game. Joe Brady took over, right? So we want to project that forward to James Cook. But the targets did go down. The production went down, only six fantasy points per game with Brady. So, you know, you expect a big step forward. But that's where that slight, like I think it's a big four. The Dawson Knox.

splits are very, very concerning and legitimate. The tough thing with that is that it was the first six weeks of Dalton Kincaid's career. Yeah, I don't care about those weeks. I care about the last ones. You care about the Joe Brady Weeks, week 11 through 18. Correct. Yeah, I mean, that's fair. Those are the ones I care about because Diggs wasn't really part of the offense and James Cook was majorly part of the offense and it's the current coordinator. And there was no Dawson Knox. Yeah, you talked about it earlier, but they were, what, 31st or something in pass rate. So, I mean, sometimes that's going to happen, but you can't always do that. They lost some pieces on defense. They went down the stretch last year and just won a bunch of games. All right, I want your second name, but not yet after this. So I mentioned. Oh, you did mention him briefly. I did mention him briefly. Ladd McComacki. I still won it. Oh, yes. Look, I love Ladd McConkey. He is.

You know, when you look at the rookie wide receivers, rookie wide receivers are usually over the last, you know, five, six, seven years in the new higher flying NFL, more pass happy NFL, rookie wide receivers are usually a good bet. Now, maybe it takes a little bit of time to come on. Yeah, second half. So ADP-wise, people have totally caught on to this, right? I mean, Marvin Harrison is a one-two-turn pick. Malik Neighbors is the highest any rookie wide receiver has ever been picked by ADP. Other than Marvin Harrison, who's already had of him. Ladd-McConkie isn't getting that treatment. He was a second round pick. Keep in mind, this is a team that traded up to get him. They traded up a couple spots. This was the very, very beginning of day two. So they went after round. They took him ahead of Coleman, right? Like Coleman was on the board for them? I do not believe so. I think Coleman was the first pick by. Oh, I had it backwards that the bills chose Coleman over McComack. Correct. So, but.

You know, you go after day one, and you see this all the time, right? Like the first day the NFL draft is over, all the teams go, and they say, who are our targets? Who are we trying to get at the very top of that draft? They have time to think about it, and they came in to the next day saying, we have to get them. They traded up. They got Ladd McConkey, and all the reports from training camp. You know, you look at a lot of these guys as like, is Coleman running with the ones? Sometimes. Sometimes not. You know, we're not sure if he's going to be a part of this offense to start his career or not. They're going to work him in there. What role is he playing? You know, he's got to work on the playbook. You've got Brian Thomas. You know, is Brian Thomas going to be a starter week one, another first, you know, first round rookie wide receiver? I don't know. Maybe it's Gabe Davis. They paid him a lot of money. They bring him in. Ladd McConkey from day one from the word go. He's on the field. He is absolutely like.

Every reporter has been saying he's the number one target almost every practice. They're saying they're not just using them in the slot. They're using them as the Z receiver. They're moving them around. When you match that with the need, I mean, Quentin Johnston isn't even right now. He might not even be running with the ones. We're not running with the twos. Right. It's all bad. They need him bad. And the film, and I know he didn't have college production. If you're just now coming around, the knock on Ladd-McConkey. is that this dude, he shouldn't have been a second round pick. He had no production in college, and it is legitimately very rare for people to be unproductive in college and then dominate with production in the NFL. Like, that's just not common. It happens sometimes, but it's an outlier. But the film of Ladd-McConkie was outstanding. I remember when we first started scouting, we hadn't started the process yet.

I didn't know the names of a lot of these rookies because, you know, I'm not a huge college guy. As soon as the, you know, Super Bowl hits. Just college in general. Learning. Get out of it. You like that cafeteria though, eh? It's quite the joke. It's quite the joke to make to the only guy who has a degree in here, right? Oh, yeah, that is true. Yeah, I have a degree. I have a college degree. I have a college degree. You'd. You have a college degree? Do you have a college degree? I thought you dipped early and then I went back and got it. This uneducated swine is our host? Yeah. College dropout? I just jokes about being dumb, guys. Wait, you have a degree? Yes, I do. Is this in a bit? No, no, this is not a bit. I do have a degree, yes. I now regret bringing all that up. Yeah. Yeah, get body. Sorry, go on. You threw the pie and it boomerangs right back into his own face.

Yeah, so, you know, it's just one of those things where when we first got to the scouting process, Andy just said, he's like, he just started talking up this. Oh, Ladd, Ladd McConkey, just watch out. He's going to be a star. He's going to be sensational. And in the early days, like this was, we weren't even talking rookies yet. No one, even the hardest core listener, no one really. knew how much Andy loved Ladd McConkey because we weren't talk about rookies yet. He just said he, you know, that was from watching, that wasn't from scouting and watching film. That was from watching the games. That was like you were watching college football or whatever. And the senior bowl. And you're just like that dude is awesome. And I feel like you've almost forgotten that, your own opinions of him early on. You have forgotten your love. But my point is this. He is a talented rookie wide receiver.

who's on the field from Snap 1 and will probably be a 75% snap player for a great quarterback in Justin Herbert. The opportunity is there, and I want to take shots on something like that. So you're going to like plantar your flag on him? Oh, yeah. Look, I had this name in here before the Justin Herbert news. I'm not going to pivot. too drastically on this yet. But I don't love that. Kyle's sitting here saying, return to your first love, Andrew. I never fell out of love with Ladd McConkey. I felt, I wanted to see how I believe I said this. I want to see all the offseason progress with Quentin Johnson and Palmer and Chark and, you know. Perfectly for Ladd McComkey. It has. It has. I am, I am returning. I am returning to where I once was. I am with you, Jason. I believe he is.

He's just set up to be foundational for the offense. And by the way, Josh Palmer also getting some very positive, like I think Greg Roman was talking all about how good Josh Palmer has been. You want to know why? Do you want to know why? Because Josh Palmer is an exceptional wide receiver two. He is not a wide receiver one. And now they got a wide receiver one. I hate to say it because I love McConkey, but I still don't believe that. Yeah. You don't believe that he's a one. You believe he's a Hunter Renfro slot-wide receiver type. You could throw all the little middle names out there. You can be the Golden Tate, so you could be like we just brought up or Landry or whatever. Like those names are what I think he'll really be in this league, but maybe I'm wrong. Maybe he'll. No, just because he'll have to because no one else there can do anything. Absolutely. Just to remind myself. So Golden Tate was the comp for the fire Jane Reed guy. Yeah. Okay. And this guy could be like a Golden Tate, Ladd McConkey.