Top 10 WR Rankings + High Expectations, Captain Mike - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/5

Jason, how are you looking at Justin Jefferson? You said Cooper Cup at the 103. So where in the first are you taking Jefferson? Against the other elite running backs, where do you have? Yeah, Jefferson's four for me. So those are my top four are Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Cooper Cup, and Justin Jefferson. If you wanted to take Justin Jefferson ahead of Cooper Cup, because you look and you say, well, Justin Jefferson's arrow is pointing up from last year. You've got way more passing expectation coming this year for the Vikings, all the beat reporters, everything out of camp was just talking about how this is going to be a team that is passing the ball. And that has not been what they have done over the last several years. Obviously change, you know, that sounds better, right? Obviously, if you end up throwing the ball a hundred more times, that is a lot more targets and receptions and yards for Justice Jefferson to get. But there is also a scheme change here and some.

differences that we haven't seen yet how that could affect Justin Jefferson. But the point is here, his arrow is pointing up from last year. He's, I mean, he's only going into year three, which is really unbelievable. I mean, it seems like he's, you know, a five or six year vet because he was the wide receiver six, his rookie or wide receiver four last year. There's really nothing that is a red flag on him. He doesn't have an injury history. He is very young. He's one of, if not the most talented, wide receiver in the NFL. And they're going to pass the ball more. But again, you know, he was the water receiver four last year. So he does need to, he does need to go up.

You know, if he's going to be drafted as, you know, Mike, you've got him as the water receiver one. Obviously, when you're drafting the water receiver one, you're hoping for the one. You're happy with the top five. You just, you know, you've got to be realistic. But if he were to do what he did last year, I think most people, even though it's like, okay, you should be happy with that. I think they would be disappointed. If they're now drafting him at the 104, where I would be drafting him if he just puts up what he did last year. I would, I would be a little disappointed.

I'd be really disappointed if I drafted in that high because he had such an impressive season, but because of the cousin situation, the two reasons that I have him behind Cooper Cup, number one, incredibly 13 of 17 weeks, he finished at wide receiver 10 or lower last year. So he had explosive games. He built stats over the course of the year, but that's weird. Like Cooper Cup never really did that and he never had those dud games and that's probably more tied into Kurt Cousins having an off game. The other side is there's no way I would bet on Jefferson scoring more than Cooper Cup. Justin Jefferson has more threats to that area of his game with Dalvin Cook around the goal line being much more of a threat than the runners that they have in Los Angeles. And then with Adam Thielands like prowess for the end zone. So those are the two main reasons why I would hesitate on him versus Cooper Cup. But from a talent and.

you know, consistency standpoint, it's hard to beat. So Andy, Dalvin Cook or Justin Jefferson in the first? I'll take Dalvin. Yeah, I'd take Dalvin Cook for position scarcity and for, you know, like I said, I think I can go get somebody else later that, you know, is a threat to be the wide receiver four like Jefferson was last year. Wide receiver number three, Jamar Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals, just over 22 years old. Justin Jefferson's records may hold up for right now, but by the end of this year, those could be crushed by Jamar Chase. He just, like I said, just turned 22. The second most fantasy points by a rookie wide receiver behind only Randy Moss. That's a good name to be connected with. He had the third most 20-yard targets. He averaged 18 yards of reception. And since 2000, only three wide receivers have had an 18 yards per reception and 13 touchdowns in a season.

the aforementioned Randy Moss, Jordy Nelson, and Jamar Chase. It was boom bust, though, for Jamar over the second half. T. Higgins, we saw him kind of recover from that injury and be very dominant in stretches. Like Jamar Chase, you know, after the byweek, wide receiver 27, 54, 37 jumps up to wide receiver four and then has an absolute, just stinker of a game in week 15. How are you guys feeling about Jamar Chase? Jason, I'll go to you first. I love Jamar Chase. I don't have any problem taking him as the first wide receiver. But if you took him as the first wide receiver, what you're hoping for is a change where he becomes the clear cut one in the pecking order targets. You know, him and T. Higgins, they share a lot of similarities as far as, you know. I believe Higgins actually had a higher target share.

By the end of the year, then Jamar Chase. And I think right now the expectation is for more of that. So when I look at Jamar Chase, the reason he's not ahead of those other two guys is simply because the other two guys project for 100 plus receptions. Like when I want a, my, you know, if I'm taking a first round wide receiver, I want a guy who's going to catch the ball 100 times, be super consistent. Jamar Chase. will win you weeks. Jamar Chase will win people millions of dollars in DFS with unfathomable weekly finishes. He's tied to a great quarterback, only getting better on a team that has so much more room to pass the ball more. I don't know if they will because they have a coward for a coach, but they could. They have room to improve there. And so, you know, you're going into year two where.

Jamar Chase, if at the end of this year he has 110 receptions and he was just the dude, I feel like we're all going to feel stupid and be like, we should have seen this coming. He was the best rookie wide receiver of all time better than Justice Jefferson and then Justin Jefferson got better. So why wouldn't Jamar Chase? But at the same time right now, I think the probability says that he's going to be more of that 85, 90 reception guy in this offense. big giant plays a little bit more volatile. And in my redraft leagues, I would prefer to have the volume guys over the big play guy. Andy? Well, he could score 20 times. I mean, he could score 16, 17, 18, 19 touchdowns on the year. I would say if the arrow's pointing up for Jefferson, it's pointing up for Chase. And you're right, the volume thing is interesting. But I just think, like, I wouldn't blame anybody for taking Jamar Chase.

at number two over Jefferson. I think he just has so much upside, and he's a physical, he's more physical than Justin Jefferson is, so I think you have a higher guarantee of double-digit touchdowns. Where are you, Mike? I agree. I mean, he's at my, I haven't met number four, my wide receivers, just consensus he ended up at number three for us. And I think that the boom bust, I think it stabilizes a little bit more this year. During the live show, I talked about my concerns for, Joe Burrow of just his ADP. And, like, I mean, those numbers have to go to the wide receivers. And so if, if, uh, using Jason's words, the coward of the coach, which is he a coward because he doesn't throw more? He's a coward because he doesn't throw more. If it's short and down in distance and fourth down, oh, he's going to punt that ball. This is the, uh, field goal. This is the Super Bowl, uh, head coach, right? That is a Super Bowl loser. Super Bowl loser. Okay.

All right. Just making sure how, what a coward he is. Yeah, but like having the fears of just how efficient Jamar Chase was, you know, it reminds you of Tyree Kill being a rookie and doing that where it's, you know, kind of hot and cold. And Tyree Kill figured that out for the most part when he back when he was with Patrick Mahomes, at least. Andy, you have Jamar Chase at number four. And seeing who your number three wide receiver is, I think that'll be an interesting discussion here to come up in a couple guys. But number four for us in consensus is Stefan Diggs of the Buffalo Bills. I have him at number three, Jason number four, and Andy at number five. Last year he finished at the wide receiver seven. He had the fifth most targets, the second most red zone targets. But for all the improvement that Josh Allen has made over the last few years,

Only 118 of his 165 targets were deemed catchable. That's 74th among wide receivers. So we had a little bit of a letdown here for Stefan Diggs. Finishing at the wide receiver 7 is a fantastic year. But in the, like you had some red games where you just were really disappointed. And you essentially had one week where you were. ecstatic that Stefan Diggs was on your team the the amount of true boom week winning games they just weren't there this year Jason so I'll throw it to you because you consider Stefan Diggs in that tier with uh with the previous wide receivers we've already talked about. Yeah, 100% I do. And I'm sad that you have Diggs 3 and Chase 4. I feel like that's what I... Why does that make you sad? Well, because I want that. I wish it was me that had Diggs above Chase. I just have some courage. Yeah, just fudge my numbers a little bit. The truth here for Diggs is that he was disappointing last year.

for two different reasons. One, where you drafted him and what your hope was was that, you know, he was going to be the Cooper Cup. And he didn't really have the monstrous performances, the weak winning stuff. He was just consistent. But two, given the actual targets he got in the end zone, the targets he got in the red zone, he was, and you just brought up the lack of catchable targets, he was actually inefficient. on what we have already seen him do with Josh Allen. So if those numbers all stayed the exact same, the numbers behind the scenes, and they just returned to a regular Diggs, Josh Allen efficiency level, then he would be far better than he was last year. But now you lose Emmanuel Sanders.

You lose Cole Beasley. You've got a lot of targets available there. And I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility that he's at a 30% target share. Right now I've got him at 27. A 30% target share in an offense like this would be like 190 targets. Those are those dream seasons. That is, you know, what Cooper Cup was dealing with last year. So I don't, like for me, Diggs, I just talked about how when I'm spending a first round draft pick, I love Jemar Chase, love the idea that he could. leap to that level, but I prefer the wide receivers who are 100 reception players. That's what Stefan Diggs is. If the touchdowns come, you know, I think that he should 100% be in that same tier of wide receivers, those elite of the elite. And then for me, there's a huge drop off after Diggs. Yeah, I think I think we disagree a little bit. You know, I love Stefan Diggs. He's my keeper in our league of record. But.

you know, and give me 26 to 29% target share for Josh Allen every day of the week. I just think you have a more threats to red zone effectiveness on this team. Dawson Knox, Gabe Davis is going to be more of a threat than, you know, if he gets regular snaps, he's going to be more of a threat than Emmanuel Sanders was because he's a bigger physical player and he's shown that in limited snaps. You have James Cook out of the backfield. You have Josh Allen threatening in the red zone already. And you have Stefan Diggs that's only had one double digit touchdown.

season out of what, 7, 8, 9 in his career. So, you know, at 6 foot 190, that is something that I don't think you can bank on the way you can with Jamar Chase or Cooper Cup. So I don't put them in that same tier, but I have them at five for a reason. You know, you're going to get 100 catches. You're going to get 25 to 30 percent target share with one of the best quarterbacks in football. And being somebody that had them on my roster last year, I saw the misses. I saw these plays that were just kind of like head scratching, like, wait, what happened here? So, but I don't know if I see him having top, you know, top two upside. And that's what I put that first tier in is I want a guy that can finish at one. So I have him just slightly lower than you guys. At number five, Devante Adams on the Packers, nay, the Raiders. The big trade over the off season, pushing his year.

30 around the sun. Andy has him at number three. So we'll let Andy kind of steer this conversation. You can give the numbers for Devante Adams. It's like last four seasons, averages 11 targets, nearly 100 yards, almost a full touchdown per game. He has been absolutely dominant for fantasy football for years and years, finished as the wide receiver three. But? Send in the car. Send in the car. We have a Derek Carr question. The numbers of wide receivers changing teams, historically they take a dip, but historically elite wide receivers like Stefan Diggs and Devante Adams don't, they don't usually get traded away. So they should be an outlier for that number. But Andy, Devante Adams at number three, explain yourself.

Yeah, I mean, I think he catches 120 plus passes and double-digit touchdowns. And I think it's a lock in Las Vegas. But did you hear this? Send in the car. Send in the car. You know, the car likes what he likes. And when he has a Hunter Renfro? Yeah. I mean, that's good evidence towards what I'm saying. Because, you know, there was a year, two years ago with Darren Waller where it seemed like on every play. He was not necessarily making the right read. He was just hyper-targeting Darren Waller. And then last year, that happened a lot with Hunter Infro due to a lack of options. And look, this is a player that we've seen do it for a long, long time. I mean, 30 plus percent target share with Aaron Rogers for three years. You throw it to him. He's going to catch it. And so I do think you have more of a more of the like Hopkins to Arizona, digs to Buffalo.

transitional type of year for Devante Adams where I feel like he's safer with a little bit higher upside than a guy like digs. I really like, I've had a hard time drafting Devante Adams because of the change of the Derek Carr quarterback. But when I really dig into the numbers. I do agree. He is one of those very, very, very few guys that is pretty much guaranteed for 100 receptions. I am down right now for 110 receptions. So I think he's going to be extremely consistent. The issue I have is 100% touchdowns. You know, when Stefan Diggs changed teams, we weren't sure about Josh Allen, but Josh Allen now we are sure of. He's, you know, a top three quarterback. When Hopkins changed teams.

We weren't 100% sure of Kyler Murray yet. It was hopeful, but Kyler Murray was the 101 and, you know, has been great so far in his career. Derek Carr, we've got a decade of data when it comes to touchdowns. And while he is, I think, a really good quarterback in the NFL, I worry solely about the touchdowns, a place where Devante Adams has really made his mark. And when you're down and you've got Darren Waller and you've got Hunter Renfro and you've got Josh Jacobs and a team that is probably going to like running the ball in as well, I don't see Devante Adams as the lock for double-digit touchdowns anymore. If he ended the season with seven or eight touchdowns, I think people will be disappointed in what he did this year. And, you know, when you've got a guy like Derek Carr, and obviously you could chicken or egg this and say, well, what's...

You know, is it because he didn't have the receivers like this is why he hasn't thrown for 35, 36 touchdowns recently? But, I mean, you know, his touchdowns, Andy, you read this the other day on the show, 23, 27, 21, 19, 22. Those are his passing touchdowns. And so I, that's my big fear with Devant Adams. That's why he's five for me. We do have, you know, a couple years of. Very solid wide receivers. I mean, you kind of, for the Raiders and for Derek Carr, you got to go back to the Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree days. And we know that Hunter Renfro came through with a monster performance this year. But Jason, those touchdown numbers, that's not Josh McDaniels system. Does the new system give you hope that he could crack the 30 touchdown mark?

It gives me a little bit of hope, but also it's a new system. That's not always easy. The last time we saw Josh McDaniels take over a head coaching job, it wasn't the smoothest transition. We've heard in the past whenever rookie wide receivers were going in with, you know, this is a hard system to learn. Obviously, these are veterans. So I think they'll be much more adaptable to, you know, picking it up quickly. But there is that, you know, okay, the system could change for the better. The system could change and be difficult as well. So I'm not really factoring that in as a positive or a negative, just a variable. At number six, we have Debo Samuel, the newly paid Debo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers. He finished last year as the wide receiver two. It was certainly a tale of two halves for him where he started the first half of the year.

just crushing with a monster target share. And then he turned into a very hybrid player where he was putting up, I mean, frankly, unsustainable numbers as a rusher. But we know that he is a tremendous player. San Francisco is bought in, but you have some variables. You have Trey Lance as his quarterback now. Andy, how are you feeling? I know you're not the biggest Trey Lance guy, but are you just... You're so confident in Debo Samuel and Kyle Shanahan that you're not going to let the, not a rookie, but whatever, the sophomore quarterback affect how you feel about Debo moving forward. Yeah, I mean, I think you summed it up. I, I've been saying Debo deserves more respect for weeks, and I think the contract has allowed.

human beings to finally say, yeah, you know, that's true. I can do it now. I don't know if that was hanging over his head. I don't know what it is. I feel like, you know, you have a wonderful offensive coach who always facilitates his best players getting the football. Debo is one of the more fun players to have in fantasy because of how central he is to the offense and the fact that, you know, he's almost like what Percy Harvin could have been. Sure. Where, you know, Percy Harvin in brief uninjured stretches was a blast because you got endarounds, handoffs, screen game, downfield, you know, goal line. Like there are so many ways that Debo will be used. And so he stabilizes your fantasy team. And the fact that he's being drafted, you know, six, seven, eight spots behind where he finished last year is kind of perplexing to me.

And that's even coming from somebody who doesn't like, like, I don't like Trey Lance, but I also don't like Jimmy Garoppolo. So like there's not, it's not like you're transitioning from a Hall of Famer to a rookie. And it's not like Debo was touchdown dependent. He was, you know, on the ground, he scored a bunch, but like through the air, like. Six touchdowns. I mean, does he get 10 total between the two? I'll be happy. So I guess I'm, you know, we're all in the same boat in terms of where we were ranking him. But he's going to be the center of San Francisco. I have risen on him obviously since the contract signing, knowing that that worry is gone, that he's not holding in any longer. But it's, you know, it's one of those things where.

His season last year was too efficient, and we know that. We know he won't be as efficient. Still a man. He is still a man, and so I don't expect him to be that efficient. But you're talking about a season that has just been totally discounted too much because of what Cooper Cup did. Debo Samuel and half PPR scoring scored 300 fantasy points this last year. For context. The year prior, the number one wide receiver was Devante Adams, who scored 300 fantasy points. The year prior was Michael Thomas. Wow. Michael Thomas's huge year, when he was the wide receiver one, he scored 300 fantasy points. The year prior to that, Tyreek was the wide receiver one with 284. If you deleted... 300 fantasy points is unbelievable. It's just that Cooper Cup had 367 because he's a madman. If you deleted Cooper Cup from our...

consensus minds and you're talking about taking the number one wide receiver from last year and dumping him no one would be doing no one would do that yeah no one would do that it really a cooper cup is really interesting debo samuels unbelievable season kind of disappear that i think they will use him in the running game a little bit less which um for it's ironic right because we talk about the running game being so important for mobile quarterbacks because they score more on the ground than they do through the air but that's not the case for wide receivers wide receivers 10 yards is 10 yards whether they're running or whether they're receiving and it's they're going to get a lot more yards in the receiving game so it's actually a good thing for his fantasy value if more comes through the air than on the ground I do think he'll have manufactured touches and where he's going right now I've seen him dropping oftentimes to the back of the second round

I mean, if you started, if he got to the back of the second and you were able to grab like a Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor and then come back and get who has number one wide receiver capability in his range of outcomes and add another running back or stud wide receiver there. I find myself weirdly in on Debo. This is new for me and I like it. Number seven, Seedy Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys. It is finally his time to shine. Amari Cooper was traded away for a couple breadcrumbs to the Cleveland Browns, leaving Seedy Lamb. Then they brought back Michael Gallup, who is still recovering from the ACL. I'm sorry, yes, from the ACL. They brought in James Washington to kind of be a veteran player. He suffered the Jones fracture.

So he's all alone, and this is what we're dealing with, 181 wide receiver targets from last year gone. Amari Cooper, Cedric Wilson, Malik Turner. 44% of targets inside the 10 have been vacated. DAC has been a very good quarterback historically throughout his career. But sometimes, like, C.LAM, the hard thing was, we thought he could do it last year, even with Amari Cooper on the team. But he had a 31% bust rate. this last year. He just, he would vanish sometimes from, from weeks one through 10. He was the wide receiver seven. But after that, he finished inside the top 30. Only one more time. Jason, are you that convinced that now that he is the guy, can, can he come through and be a top five player for fantasy football? He definitely can. He has the talent to do it. I love the talent as a player.

I worry a little bit about Dak. And while that is maybe weird because Dak's very good, and I think the office is going to be good, I think Dak spreads ball around. I think he's a better quarterback than he gets credit for. And in so doing... And I know you're like, well, who's it going to spread the ball around to? But Dalton Schultz will be involved. Jalen Tolbert will be involved. You've been hearing other names. Dennis Houston is a name of undrafted rookie, but he's been popping up left, right and center. And I'm not saying like, oh, Dennis Houston is the reason that C.D. Lamb can't be great. What I'm worried about is C.D. Lamb should, based on this roster, have 165 plus targets.

That's just not what DAC has ever done with anyone is, you know, his highest kind of wide receiver 1 usage was way back in the day with Des Bryant. I'm hopeful. I've drafted in, you know, high money leagues, C.D. Lamb, because there is a path here for him to be great, to truly have that year three, not just breakout. He broke out last year, but his... top-end fantasy finish, everything is lined up for him well. So I don't have a problem taking him, but I definitely have worries the way that they've utilized him and the way that they've utilized their wide receiver one for the entirety of Dax's career. Andy, are you concerned with Bousadilam? Well, I mean, I would disagree that he's broken out. He basically repeated his rookie year. I'd say that he needs to break out.