AFC South Breakdown + RB Insurance Policies, Gigantor! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/10

They need more from this position, but they did it with literally every position. They brought in like 40 players across all positions that they just want competition everywhere. Eventually, this team has to, they can't carry 95 players into the season. They're going to cut a lot of these guys. And eventually these starters will just play football, and that will be David Johnson. It will. And that's where I'm out with this backfield is I would, I'm.

Pretty confident David Johnson gets the majority of the work in this offense and is the best, and is the best player. Like I think David Johnson at this stage in his career, versatile, going to be needed, this defense is awful, this offense will be awful, but he catches the football. And he's still talented enough to give you something fantasy-wise. And another player you're going to say was Brandon Cooks, right? Yes. So those are the two offensive pieces.

Are you willing at the right value to invest in one or both? Yeah, I mean, David Johnson certainly because he's a running back. I've seen him falling very, very late in drafts. You know, I've seen him in the eighth round. And once you're past all those great awesome wide receiver options in rounds three through seven, if I'm circling back to running back, maybe I only have one.

Or maybe I've got two by the eighth round of David Johnson sitting there. You have a starter capable of catching the ball who looked good last year. He played the majority of the year last year. He did miss four games. But in the games he played, there were only three times all season that he was outside the top 24 at the position. Now, plenty of times he was.

in that RB2. He wasn't an all-star win-you-week-for-you type of guy. But with volume and pass-catching... He's going to be 10 or more when he starts. Ten or more... Fantasy points. I think he'll be a ten... He'll be an old-school Clinton Portis on Washington. A great flex option. Where you just got ten points no matter what. Yeah, I want... I want ten to twelve and a half points.

and not think about my second flex position. And we were getting down in our Scotty Fishball draft looking at running back options, and he's falling. And for good reason, right? You don't have any confidence in the offense. But, I mean, I think we saw from James Robinson getting involved in the passing game last year on a team that didn't run a lot. I mean, Houston was 31st in rush attempts. Johnson was still good. Jacksonville was 32nd. And James Robinson was still good. So you can be a bad team.

But you've got to catch the football, and at least he has that skill set. Now, I will, it would be disingenuous of me not to bring up the Tyrod Taylor not throwing the ball much to the running back with a running back capable of catching the ball. I think on the extremes, and I've had some of this conversation of debate on Twitter recently over, is throwing to the running back a quarterback stat, is it a.

talent stat, is it a coaching stat? And I think on the extremes, it is a quarterback stat, not in the average. And Tyrod Taylor is on the extreme of that. He's not going to throw the ball a lot to David Johnson. So it's a matter of, do we really believe Tyrod Taylor is going to be starting much of the season? Yeah, and I don't, you know, the talent is thin there. They have to throw to David Johnson, even if he's lined up in the slot.

You know, I know you're right, I think, on the extremes, but on the average case, it's not a quarterback to me. I think we saw this plain and simple with the Cam Newton CMC situation. Sure. You get the player who can catch the ball, you throw them the ball. Yeah, and how you design your offense. But not a lot, let me put it this way. Do you have a lot of hope for Philip Lindsay? No. Do you have hope for Jordan Aiken? No. Do you have hope for any of the other running backs in that room, Ingram, Burkhead?

Nico Collins, Kiki QT. Dynasty-wise. Randolph says, hey, what's up? Dynasty-wise, Nico Collins is the only name that I would just throw out there saying he's coming into an NFL experience where the opportunity and pathway is open for him. So if he comes in and seizes the day, he could be better than what we're expecting. Because obviously Nico Collins is not a highly drafted fantasy option, even in Dynasty leagues, but at least the path is there for him.

Jacksonville was one in 15 last year. They won their first game of the season, if you remember. They beat the Colts. Which once again, I spent the offseason disparaging Gardner Minshu and then was getting flexed on in week one. Oh, yeah, it was great. And, well, they lost the next 15 games. They went through Gardner and Luton and Glennon, which is that's more of a law firm than it is of quarterback room.

Glennon and Luton is a gluten for punishment. Uh, oh. Hmm? Like you are? Okay. Yeah. I thought it was going to go like gluten free. Like they're going to be gluten free this year. That's too easy. Okay. Also, they had, they were punished a lot last year. Yeah. Okay. I'm, I'll, I'll get myself a C minus. It's Saturday. I won't even rank you. Thank you. It was a, I brought up the fact that James Robinson was great last year, which he was, and did it on the offense that was.

32nd in rushing attempts. That is not the normal, though. Like using him as the template for, well, bad teams produce good running backs. It's not the normal, at least if you're the dead last in rush attempts since 2011. There have been two that have put up big years. And that was Lamar Miller back in 2015 for Miami and James Robinson last year, who finished seventh at the position. I think we've spent a lot of the offseason, bemoaning, Urban Meyer, taking the first round pick.

on ETN because of what it means for James Robinson managers because you had the free square at running back and then you decided to double down. But to me, I think you have to translate that into what this team wants to do. And what this team wants to do is throw the football to the running back position. They didn't feel like they were equipped enough with James Robinson. Last year for Trevor Lawrence in college, highest percentage of attempts from screens, run past options among all quarterbacks.

Urban Meyer needed to double down on the ability to do it. Yeah, and he brought in his college teammate that he's comfortable doing it with. James Robinson's season last year was awesome, and they should have stuck with him. They didn't, and James Robinson is borderline irrelevant to me. I...

I don't know how far he has to drop in a draft for me to take him. But it's far. I've passed him in so many mucks and so many real drafts. He is everything I don't want in a player. Last year, he was great. I take nothing away from him. I give him all the credit.

But it was entirely because he was the only thing, the only player touching the ball a bunch. It's like you said, they were dead last in rushing attempts. But he was great because he got all of them. It's similar to what we were talking about with the Steelers on the last episode. A lot of times people think that these running backs with a ton of rushing attempts are on a high rushing volume team. No, sometimes it's just they're the only guy. And that's all it was. Well, he's not the only guy. He's not with the team and the coach and the staff that...

experienced him, and they just brought in a first round running back. They want to throw the ball to the running back. And while James Romza can do that, between the 20s, Urban Meyer wants speed. So let me ask you a couple questions. Pull up your stats for Jacksonville.

Because I'm going to ask you a question about them. Because I do look at James Robinson a little bit like Philip Lindsay in year two, where he forced himself to the top of the depth chart, and the team has no choice but to use him. I think he's going to be a part of the offense. Sure. So the question I have for you is, do you think he'll have, do you think, do you have two running backs on that team with more than 150 touches?

I do not. So where do you have James Robinson then? I have James Robinson with 165 touches and Travis E.T and with 133. I'm sorry, not touches. Yeah, touches. Oh, both of them are over 150 touches. All right. So looking at every team over the last five years that have had two running backs with 150 touches each. Okay. So what I'm projecting for this team. You have 55%. 55% had both running backs that finished in the top 36.

But only 21% had both in the top 24. So you're not going to get sealing if they share the time. If they have the type of touch count that you have projected, you might get a couple of top 36es. Touchdowns for Robinson, catches for ETN, but you're not getting in the top 24. And that's what we need to clarify for people here, because when you say, hey, it's likely that they're both in the top.

36. Really 50-50. That can sound, but even if it's, even if it was 100% guarantee, that can sound better than it is. Because it's similar to saying, oh, this tight-in was the tight-in seven. It's irrelevant. Like, if you're not in the top 25 running backs, you are usually irrelevant. Maybe a nice, too. Last year, the running back 36, just to give you a barometer. Give me some names for it. Last year's running back 36 was Giovanni Bernard. He was a top 36 running back. So that's a health award.

Exactly right. Give me the 30th running back last season. The 30th was Chase Edmonds. Okay. Yeah, I'm still not pleased. Darrell Henderson, Jr. after that, Lentavius Murray, Adrian Peterson. Okay, give me 25. Who's 25? Oh, we're going on. Okay. Up, I'm sure that's better. James Connor was 25.

And you weren't probably thrilled. My point is confidence wanes as you get into that range. You just said it's very unlikely that they're in the top 24. Very unlikely. If they're not in the top 24, I don't really care at running back. I think we're learning something here today. Good. That's our goal. I have been very verbose about my dislike of DJ Chark. I...

Believe he's a bust. I believe he will not be part of their future. I am not excited. I will draft Leviska Chanel two rounds after him every day of the week and twice on Saturday since that's today's show. And then Marvin Jones has a good shot at outperforming DJ. I believe they brought him in specifically because they didn't feel like they had enough at the wide receiver position from Chark on film, wasn't with Urban Meyer. Chark and Marvin Jones Jr. are ironically very similar.

stylistic assets on a football field. Why would you do that? Why would you bring in a similar player? Because you want that position and you don't think you have it. Right. And yeah, I would agree with you. I would prefer both of them. I've come around to your line of thinking DJ Chark in the 7th is not something that I really want. There are much better...

higher odds of finishing. Like Cortland Sutton in the 7th? Would you take him? Oh, my goodness. Do I love? Devante Smith in the 7th? Yeah, give me both of those guys over DJ Chark. Robbie Anderson in the 8th? Oh, baby, yes. I'm assuming you take Will Fuller in Miami in the 8th. Sure, absolutely. It's certainly over DJ Chark. So not Chark week for the footballers today. I'm not sure where Mike is on track. I don't know if I persuaded him or not. It's hard. I think I did. I would say this. It's hard to be pro Chark.

The argument for it is that we did see a breakout where he had a stretch of games with touchdowns and showed flashes where he can get it done on an NFL field. He is, you know, inarguably fast. He is an elite speedster on the NFL field. And he's young. So someone's got to, you know, step up. But the reality is someone doesn't have to step up in Trevor Lawrence's rookie season.

Well, and you might see him step up week one against Houston. Like you may see the best from the Jacksonville offense early. That game is going to be a deception bowl of what these teams really are because they're going to be two of the worst defenses in football facing off head to head in week one. Headlines for Lawrence. Everybody's eyes are going to be on him. How much are you rooting for that as a dynasty manager of DJ Turk?

Just a week one explosion. So you can ship him out? Oh, yeah. With Trevor Lawrence. I mean, because you could probably, you're going to get some people saying this is the new. You're going to get everybody, including me probably saying that, because it's going to be hard not to believe. If Lawrence picks Chark out for two touchdowns in week one, you tell, I may lose all my conviction. I'm going to be honest with you. Stick with it, Andy. Trade him. Trade high. It's going to be, I'll look like an idiot. Trade high. The best part he'll be at a he'll pull the Gardner Men show. He'll come out. He'll dominate. You'll laugh at me.