AFC South Breakdown + RB Insurance Policies, Gigantor! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/10

have no pass-catching options inside the top 10 rounds in fantasy football. That's crazy, right? It's unique. It's not a normal situation. You have the running back going inside the first round in Jonathan Taylor. So this is a team that at least fantasy analysts seem to be projecting a complete run first, past, second type of offense. I don't know that that's going to be what they're able to be this season. And I think this offense...

and whether Carson wins rides or dies really is going to rely on if T.Y. Hilton is washed or not. Because if T. Let's just say, because Mike's not here, and I will speak for Mike, Mike is O U.T on T.Y. Hilton. The way I am on A.J. Green, I just think they're done. They had great careers, great players, but, you know, Mike thinks T.Y. Hilton is not ever going to be.

a true wide receiver one for an NFL team from here on now. And if that was the case, just going down that narrative, because I think there is a decently high percentage chance that T.Y. Hilton is not the guy he ever was before in his youth. And if that's the case, this is not going to go well for Carson Wince. You can't have Michael Pittman and, you know, a hugely injured Paris Campbell as you're receiving corps.

I actually disagree. How? Because I don't think, I think a new narrative for the cult should be, it doesn't matter about T.Y. Hilton. I think that last year you were ninth in points per game and you didn't have T.Y. Hilton show up for almost the entire season in terms of productivity. What I like about Frank Reich in the office is you got to paint the picture around.

We're underestim Hines. We're underestimating Moali Cox, and we're underestimating creatively getting the ball into the hands of your playmakers. Frank Reich has proven year after year that's what he knows how to do. So when you talk about Paris Campbell returning, Zach Pascal's still there, Michael Pittman's there, you use Naim Hines like crazy last season. Jonathan Taylor can catch the football. Moeally Cox is a mismatch. I didn't say D.Y. Hilton's name.

because I think he may be irrelevant. Like he's probably, and coming for me, this is hard. But I think you waste a pick on T.Y. Hilton because you don't have a ceiling. And he's not going up. He's going down. So he feels like drafting somebody extremely late in his career with no real upside for your team. That isn't going to be the focal point. Like I don't think Frank Reich is going into the year building the focal point of the Indianapolis Colts offense around T.Y. Hilton the way that the Andrew Luck.

offense would have been three or four years ago. I think he is, if we got him cool, we're going to use him, but we might not. So let's use all these other pieces. Okay, that's fair. Looking at last year, the fact that T.Y. Hilton wasn't great. And they definitely spread the ball around. The question is whether or not Carson Wince is able to do what Philip Rivers did in finding the pieces. Last year's leading tight-in target share guy for this team, Trey Burton, is gone. Yeah.

Is there an opportunity here for one of the tight ends to actually step up in this division? It's Moe-A-Cocs. It would be Moe-A-Cox for you over Jack Doyle. Yeah, and I mean, if you wanted to say Ferkser versus Cox on picking a diamond, I would take Moly Cox. I would as well because Ferkser does not have an athletic profile or physical ability to really make something on his own. We've seen some flashed brilliant. He's so humongous. Well, you see it's the size, Jason. He's enormous.

He, he, I don't, I don't understand because he, you know, on paper, he's the same size as other big tight ends. But then you go stand next to each other. I don't, maybe it's because he wears. You know what you say Mike has such a giant head head? Yeah, there's, there's, I mean, obviously he has his head size. Right. Because of science. Yeah, mathematics ratios. Mojali Cox hasn't beat. Oh, for sure. But not proportionally, but like, correct. I mean, his, do you think like helmet size, we don't, we've got this helmet.

kind of as a barometer in the middle of the table. No chance. Could his helmet fit on this table? Moali Cox's helmet? I don't think so. I doubt it, but... He plays like dark helmet. Yes, dark helmet. Good reference. No, I think Moly Cox could emerge. And I think it is an interesting exercise for fantasy players to put Hilton out the door mentally and say what does the offense look like. Because if you do that...

and you trust Frank Reich, you have to then make assumptions about other players. You can't say Michael Pittman's taken over. There was nothing on film last year that tells me Michael Pittman is ready to be an alpha in this office, personally. He had tons of plays designed for him that were within a, maybe he expands everything this year and becomes a focal point, maybe. But to me, it's like, okay, how do they get it done? And that's where I think you probably don't dismiss Naim Hines as a spot start for fantasy purposes here and there.

He was the RB 10 from week 8 on last year. He finished at RB 19 and we're quick to say, no, Hilton's the key to the offense. It's not the RB 19. Well, I mean, I think it's very similar to what we saw in Los Angeles last year. When Rivers left, I personally discounted Austin Eckler because the dumpoffs might not be there as much. Carson Wince is known to miss running backs right in front of him from time to time, both in

not seeing them open or not being able to hit them in the hands. But wasn't the lesson that we were wrong? What do you mean? We were completely wrong about Echler's target share. Because as soon as he had a chance to play with Justin Herbert, he was targeted all over the place because he's one of the better players on the offense. Sure. I mean, the argument was Tyra Taylor, which we only got to see one game. But in that game, he got one target. So too small sample size.

But I want to circle back real quick. I actually think Michael Pittman is a fine draft pick this year because he's one of those guys where he either takes a second year leap and maybe he is the focal point of the office or becomes the wide receiver one for a winning franchise. He was, you know, I think he had a pretty good first year over 500 yards. He was injured for three games during the early part of the season.

And now the opportunity with a kind of on the way out, T.Y. Hilton is there. For an 11th round pick, you cut them in week one if you don't want. But there is a path that I see for Pittman. And I love this college state. Oh, I don't disagree that he's a great player. What's funny is they have their own Tim Patrick on this team. They have their Tim Patrick. Is that Zach Pascal? It's Zach Pascal, who had more targets and more receptions than Michael Pittman did last year. But we just don't even talk about him.

Well, because the upside isn't there with them. Like if Pascal gets 100 targets this year, you're probably not playing him much for fantasy. Last year he was for, uh, who is that? Michael Pittman was 40 for 503 and 1. Pascal was 44 for 629 and 5. So he actually was far more productive, completely ignored. And then people want to know, is Paris Campbell have any shot? I'm always anti-Paris Campbell. That's just a thing. That's just a thing since college, but, um,

If T.Y. Hilton is out and someone needs to step up, the narrative I just spoke for Michael Pittman is true for Paris Campbell. Now, before we leave the Colts, the biggest question here. Well, you know what happens to when you leave the Colts where you have to go, too. Yeah, we got to go to the bottom of the division. Yeah. Yeah. So let's stay on the Colts a little longer. Jonathan Taylor. Jonathan Taylor is my least favorite fantasy player this year because I absolutely.

adore and love you love him and you're not going to get him his talent i think he is otherworldly i mean last year he was my number one by a wide margin talent wise it just was drooling from what he could do and now he showed it he flashed brilliantly but he's being drafted so high that i can't ever get myself like i don't believe he's going to finish as the running back six or higher and

I'm torn because I really truly believe he's talented enough to be the number one running back in all of football. And he's got a great offensive line, but I just don't think he's going to get the targets. And like you said, Naim Himes will be involved. Marlon Mack is back from his injury. It's just tough for me to pull the trigger that early in a draft. But I love the guy. So I don't know what to do. It's so ridiculous because it's the invert of last year between us. Right. Like I was the one pumping the brakes on Jonathan Taylor.

worried about overinvesting in your drafts on him. And you guys were, you know, all over him. And now we're, now I have them ranked the highest. And yeah, I mean, the Philip Rivers question, obviously he's a checkdown king. I think you're right. I mean, Herbert, we didn't get to see enough of him and Echler together. But when you have a talented player, you need to target them. Frank Reich's a smart coach.

So last year, you know, 40 receptions. If you can give me 40. Yeah. Oh, that would be great. If you say that Jonathan Taylor is going to get 40 receptions this year, then he's a lock top 10 back and he has the potential to be tough. So maybe that's the bet you're making when you decide to draft him over a Zique or somebody like that. Like you're betting on, like that was his 17 game pace last year with Philip Rivers was 40. And that was with him having, you know, less of the running back snaps in the first half of the year. So there is some hope there.

Do you get, you want to talk about the Houston Texans now? Oh man. That's funny to, it's almost insulting to the Jaguars. I don't know. Look. Talk about the Texans ahead of them. We're just doing this in order of last year's record. They won four games. It feels wrong. They won four games. Three of the four were against Detroit and two against Jacksonville. So Jacksonville at the bottom of the division lost twice the Houston Texans. But what do you think their win total is this year? There were four and 12 last year. What do you think Vegas has a man?

Oh, man. I'm surprised there's even a line allowed with the Deshaun Watson question. It's got to be four and a half, something super low. You're good today, Jason. It's four. Okay. It's four wins. They were 31st in terms of covering the spread last year. Isn't there just a bet? You have to. Like, I'm not, you know, I'm not the sports betting expert here. But like, what do you put the odds that Deshaun Watson plays football this year? I.

Football on any team or on the Texans. Just football. Eight games. Eight games of football this year in the National Football League. Eight games of football this year, I'll put it 40%. Yeah, that's a very large chunk because obviously if he played eight games for the Texans, their line would not be four games. Well, here's the irony as they start the year against Jacksonville. So you can go make that bet in Vegas and watch them win week one against Jacksonville at home against the rookie quarterback. Mm-hmm.

which could absolutely happen. I doubt that line in that game has Jacksonville's favorite. Who's home? Houston. Oh, man, that'll be interesting. So you go make that bet and the Houston starts 1-0. But let's talk about this team because that's our job. And we get to try to sift through the myriad of not Deshaun Watson on this roster and try to find some value.

It's easy to malign the Texans because of what's taken place, some outside of their control, some a lot within it. No more Will Fuller, Duke Johnson, no more Chad Hansen Mbop, probably no Deshaun Watson. They add Philip Lindsay, they had Mark Ingram. They add Rex Burkhead to the running back room. And they go and they draft it with their first pick. Davis Mills is a quarterback.

31st in Rush of Timps last year, 19th and points per game with Watson. I think I just don't see the path. Like if Tyrod Taylor is your starter, he averaged 18 completions a game throughout his career. Distributing 18, and we've had this, why do we have this conversation every office? Why do we have to have the Tyrod Taylor offseason conversation every year? Because he has a phenomenal agent. I don't know who it is.

But my goodness, if you're going into the NFL draft and you're like, you're an NFL caliber talent, but you're not a star. Go sign with Tyrod Taylor's agent because he keeps getting starting gigs every year after doing nothing. It's really impressive work, Agent Taylor. Yeah, it's his mother. Maybe. I don't know. I mean, someone loves him a lot. So.

And we just, it gets old because we spent the whole offseason talking about what the Los Angeles offense would look like with him. Now we have to do it again with Houston. But I guess the saving grace is that there aren't a lot of players to talk about. There's not a lot of implications. You're not looking at losing the Keenan Allen volume like you were last year thinking of Tyrod coming into Los Angeles. There's only two players that need to be.

brought up. And the only other reason you'd bring other names up is just in the context of how it might affect the two draftable options. That's David Johnson and Brandon Cooks. David Johnson is interesting. They have done their best job to crowd that backfield this offseason, bringing him Philip Lindsay, bringing him marking room, bringing in Rex Burkhead. But they've done this. A lot of times what I would say is look at their transactions.