AFC South Breakdown + RB Insurance Policies, Gigantor! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/10

For the Titans, because when I look at the Titans holistically and say, this offense, are they going to be good? Are they going to be bad? I think they're going to be good. I mean, they hit 73% of the time last year. They hit the over. That was the highest in the NFL. They were a surprisingly good offense. I think they will be a good offense again. My big question mark, though, is the offensive coordinator change with Arthur Smith exiting, going to run the Atlanta Falcons. I worry now, you know, they hired in-house.

and brought up someone who was already here, so you hope it just stays the same. But I'm not... The last time we saw Todd Downing was 2017. He did real good. With the Oakland Raiders at the time, and they were 31st in points per game. So, I mean, there's a reason he wasn't an offensive coordinator in the interim. So, yeah, I mean, he was with the Raiders organization for quite a while. I have the same concern that you do is the kind of unexpected there. I think Johnu did...

Did a lot for the offense, versatility-wise. The running game as well. Some different looks there. So that would be a concern. Speaking of that turnover differential, the reason that exists is not because their defense was outstanding. It's also because Ryan Tannehill was effective and didn't throw interceptions. The last two years, six picks in 2019, seven last year.

You know, it starts and ends with Ryan Tannahill executing the play action pass offense, 33 touchdowns last year. The year before, he was at a 7.7% rate, which is kind of, you know, above league average by a wide margin. Last year, it did, but not too far, 6.9, which is still very high. You know, all those years in Miami, he was in the fours.

But, I mean, this is the kind of offense that you can expect that in. It's the same way you expect Russell Wilson to have a nice touchdown percentage in Seattle with DK McF and Tyler Locker. Yeah, when you have Derek Henry and the defense is really trying to stop the running game and then you have a great outside receiver like A.J. Brown and you add Julio Jones, you're going to be efficient throwing touchdowns. And here's the truth. Ryan Tannelhill, he's hashtag good. He's a good quarterback.

I believe he is a top 15 real-life NFL quarterback. And so that's why I like this roster. I like A.J. Brown. I like Julio Jones. If I had a worry with the players, with the fantasy options that you're drafting, it would solely be Derek Henry just because of age and volume. And at some point, we know historically, you just don't keep getting 370 plus carries.

forever and then, you know, have a better season than next year. He will not be as good as he was last year. There's no chance. 2027 rushing yards last year. Right. I mean, it would take an amazing year to be better than that. And it's, it's not going to happen. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry on first and 10. That's insane. So if you given the ball in first and 10, you're sitting second and four.

and you get to run your office. That's why you win downfield. If you can go second and four and you don't know whether you're handing to Derek Henry or going over the top, it's just a cheek coat. It really is because you get those big rollouts. Let's talk about the passing game, though, because there has been turnover. Corey Davis departed. Julio Jones, they signed him. You talked about Johnny Smith. Anthony Furkser gets some attention in the passing game as well.

Julio comes in with a career average of 132 targets a season. That's what Julio's done in Atlanta. Last year, Corey Davis was pacing out for about 117 over 17 games. So there's the void of Corey Davis there. Johnny Smith had 65 last year. Those two guys are gone. What do you expect from Julio? What are the expectations for A.J. Brown? And then I will bring up FERC or just because they utilize the tight end.

And you'd be surprised. I mean, Anthony Ferkser was in the 50s in his target totals last year. Johnny was at 65, more explosive, more dynamic, better athlete. But they weren't that far apart is what I'm saying. It's like Ferkser was a part of that passing game at the tight end position. But let me know, what do you think about, you know, big plays and what you will see from those two wide receivers? Yeah, I mean, the reality is they're a 1A and 1B and they're going two rounds apart.

So I actually prefer the value this year of Julio Jones over the value of A.J. Brown. For A.J. Brown to go as the seventh wide receiver off the board, even after Julio, you're saying that he's going to be, you know, when you're drafting a guy there, even though it's after five, you're drafting him because you think this is a top five type of NFL wide receiver. I don't think he does that with Julio on the field. Seems hard to expect. Right. This is not Corey Davis. Julio will demand targets. He will get targets and he will do a lot with those targets,

eats up yardage that just can't go to AJ Brown. Whereas with Julio being in the fourth, being outside the top 15 wide receivers, right now my rankings, I've got AJ Brown at wide receiver 13 and Julio as the wide receiver 16. So I still have AJ Brown ahead of Julio because of touchdowns, but I would say the draft value is more in Julio's favor. Do you think that Julio will catch more passes? Do I think he'll, no, I don't. I do think he is the number two.

um in in targets i have him with 10 fewer targets than a j brown that was yeah i was curious what you thought that i don't obviously don't think that the team is looking at it through that kind of um lens right they're not looking at it through okay a j's the one hulio's the two probably the opposite it doesn't matter they're looking at it as who's open who do i want to go to on this play which which cornerback

that stinks is guarding which guy this week? You know, that's the thing. It's going to go back and forth. So I think there will be some consistency issues with those two wide receivers. I'm not too worried about that because we've talked about this before. All wide receivers have major consistency issues. And to speak to Ferkser, that was cute for a minute pre-Hulio. Ferkser is not even on my radar. I mean, like you said, it's surprising, right? Because he was in the 50s for receptions last year. That's a pretty good number. And it's surprising because he did nothing with him.

It was just he was irrelevant last year. Yeah, I mean, you really can't argue with that. He didn't score any touchdowns. I mean, he was 41 reception, 400 yard, one touchdown pace. Just bringing up his name because people are always looking for late round diamonds in the rough. And you're saying, forget about it. This isn't the division. This isn't the division for tight ends. That's what I'm saying. We're going to talk more about this division. About how few tight ends are in this division. So what you're saying by extension is that Tim Tebow could be like a defining tight end in this division.

I mean, if he's going to be in any division, this is the one. All right, let's take a quick pause. I'm going to jump into the Colts here, but I want to thank today's sponsor, Uncommon Goods. Jason, what is Uncommon Goods? It is, well, actually, it's better if you just go and check it out. Because I can't explain to you how many different unique products they have on the website. There are, like, so many times you have gifts that you need to give and you don't want to be boring.

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And something for your league, something for yourself. Fantasychamps.com. All right. We're on to the Indianapolis Colts. They also finished 11 and 5 last year. They actually have the Vegas's highest wins total in the division. They have the mat. What do you think, Jason? Do you know this answer? I don't know this answer. I would say 10 and a half? 10. Okay. Yeah. So just about half a game ahead. Last year was interesting. I mean, 11 and 5, Philip Rivers leading the show.

A great defense last season. They were second and defensive rushing yards given up. Really weird schedule. This is a crazy quirk that Kyle found for the Colts last season. According to the final betting lines of each game in 2020, the Colts were the only team to be favored in 15 of 16 games. So they were only an underdog, according to the spread one time in the whole season. And it was a one point underdog in Week 5 in Cleveland.

So they lost in the wild card round. It was another close game, 2724 with Buffalo. Ninth and points per game last year. Like this is the part of the show where you give praise to Philip Rivers. Nope. They were 10th in rushing attempts. I will say this. Philip Rivers protected the ball, which he had not been doing over the last several years. Sometimes he'd yo-yo back and forth between a year where he was protecting it, but a couple of 20.

interception seasons recently. They call out a Winston, but go on. And then he only had 11. That was really the story for the Colts last year. They caused turnovers. They didn't turn the ball over themselves. You win that battle. You're going to win games. And this is a very well-rounded deep team. Most positions on both sides of the ball are pretty well-constructed. I love their GM. I think there's a well-run franchise.

The whole question, I love their head coach. Another turnover. I mean, you have more turnover at the offensive coordinator position again this year. Yes. The Eagles were like, oh man, we shouldn't let Frank Wright go. Can we have a piece back? Yeah, Nick Siriani out, Marcus Brady in. But the question of the Colts is, I mean, for fantasy, we've got questions on the wide receivers and on Jonathan Taylor and whatever. But when we're looking at what are the Colts going to be as a team?

It's just Carson Wins. They're going to ride or die with Carson Wins, and what do they do, Andy? I think they ride. They're my pick for the division. And, you know, Philip Rivers, you brought up, oh, okay, it wasn't an interception year for Phillip Rivers. You know what has a lot to do with that? Offensive line. An offensive line. And, you know, they... Yes, I got it right. Yeah, you got it right. I mean, they're going to need to protect Carson Wins. Not, you know, maybe more than anyone before.

just for the fragility and the confidence of Carson Wins coming into a new team trying to reprove himself as a franchise quarterback. But I think they can get it done. And they were the number one defense for fantasy last year. So that kind of came out of nowhere. That being said, Jason, you get some credit. You had them as a streaming defense to target before the season began. So congratulations. Thank you. Thank you.

Look, the offensive line rank going into 2021, according to pro football focus, is number two overall. So if you want to write the story of Carson Wentz, it begins, like this part of his career begins with this kind of a situation. You put him in a position where he can succeed. However, does he have the wide receiver pieces to succeed or is he being dealt another hand like he had in Philadelphia? Because the Colts wide receivers.

We're the fourth lowest in terms of wide receiver target share. The ball was going to the tight-in position a ton last year. There's a lot of talk about Jack Doyle having to stay in and block a lot this year to help solidify that offensive line. Oh, Moe Alley Cox. He's gigantic. Yeah, so maybe Moe Alley Cox is a sleeper there. But Ty Hilton, he's going in the 12th round of drafts. Michael Pittman's going in the 11th round. That does seem anomalous for a team that was ninth in points per game to