The Overreaction Episode! + Fantasy Fallacies, BOOM-tacular - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/19

players that we already had of really high regard for as quarterbacks. And so then let's examine this year and say, hey, what are we really expecting from three guys, Tua, Tanya Viloa, Derek Carr, and then Jalen Hertz. Because Tua added Tyreek, Derek Carr added Devante. Jalen Hertz added A.J. Brown. And so there's questions there. But historically speaking, if you're expecting a lot out of Tua and Derek Carr,

you're probably going to be disappointed. They're probably not going to get elevated by those elite wide receivers because they weren't already considered elite quarterbacks. So we haven't seen a lot of historical examples of that. And then the real question is Jalen Hertz, which we talked about him a few minutes ago about the rushing totals. Is he really going to be reinvented as a passer? Because the solution for Philly last year, and I know we're going to debate this all summer.

But the solution for them to win games was to stop passing the ball as much. And you can explain it away and say, well, you don't have a lot of great targets. And Jaylen Rager stinks. But they won. They won because they transitioned to a running offense. And look, do they need more weapons? Yeah. But A.J. Brown has existed in a low, you know, it's not like A.J. Brown forced the hand of Mike Rable.

And Tennessee, when their offense was predicated on the run, he was just really efficient. So you have to ask yourself that question is, what do I believe about that quarterback independent of this move? Do I believe Jalen Hertz is an elite passer independent of picking up A.J. Brown, because if you're not an elite passer, AJ Brown is not going to help. I would say. Mr. Biskey, it didn't matter if Alan Robinson was elite because he's not good enough. Yeah, I would say an elite.

player, not necessarily an elite passer, because Josh Allen was not thought of as an elite passer before Stefan Diggs came. He was inaccurate, you know, there were worries about whether or not he could really get it done. I do find it kind of fascinating that the two examples, obviously small sample size here, but the two examples where they really took it to another level fantasy wise are the two very mobile quarterbacks, which you can't just guard against me running the ball. Kyler popped off and Josh Allen did.

Jalen Hertz, you know, maybe that's, that opens the game up for him, you know, because of his dual threat ability. If he's capable of it, they have equipped him to do it. Is that fair? That is fair. Because that, you know, it'd be lovely if everybody ended up like Josh Allen when they add an elite weapon. Jalen Hertz, if he does it, can be the number one overall quarterback in fantasy football. Yeah. Now, here's what's really fun for me. It's Jalen Hertz and Tua.

who have given, they've been given the keys to success and they were at Alabama where it was too, oh, Jaylen Hertz, get out of town. You stink. You're not good enough to play here. Go transfer. Get out of here. Go get drafted in the second round of the NFL draft. Oh, what if he's the better guy? He is.

All right. Are you just talking for your own personal vacation? Yes, this was more like a, you know, like a WWE little, you know, talk up session here. Okay. How many wins did the Eagles have last year, Kyle? They went 10 and 7. And how many wins did the dolphins have last year? 9 and 8. 9 and 8. So they were pretty close last year, too. I was trying, I didn't know if they were the same or similar, but. If you recall, the 9 and 8, very impressive after they started what, like 0.7, I think? One in seven. Yeah.

Goodness, gracious. They both finished strong then. They did. Also, they should have got rid of that coach. With that strong finish. Yeah. Yeah. Well, speaking of Tua and Jalen Hertz here, my overreaction deals with both of these guys to a degree. I do not. To a degree. Oh, man. Oh, yeah, we did it. I don't want people. That joke has never been used. To overreact. To overreact. Yeah. Okay.

Oh, okay. All right. Don't overreact to the wide receivers who just became or seems like they just became the number two on their team. We had so many giant splashy transactions this year where Jalen Waddle was the hotness. Oh, he was the dynasty superstar. He was going to be a top five wide receiver.

But they traded for Tyree Kill. They paid him a ton of money. Jalen Waddle is the two. And I've seen situations where it's like he's left for dead now. Can I restate it for you? Sure. You're basically saying there are players we're excited about that now look like they were knocked down the depth chart. And you're saying don't worry about it as much as others are. That's exactly what I'm saying. I'm saying don't overreact when you're dealing with Jalen Waddle, Elijah Moore.

Devante Smith, and I'll throw Darren Waller in there as well. They all had, you know, Elijah Moore was the one, and then they just used a top 10 draft pick to go and get Garrett Wilson. And now Garrett Wilson's probably the one. Is he? Maybe. Maybe not. Devante Smith obviously just got A.J. Brown, and, you know, now Devante Smith, who looked like he was going to take a year to leap at wide receiver and be great going forward.

You don't even want to draft him. It's a low-volume offense. He's the number two guy. What can he really do when he's not the number one for his team? But the reality is these are great wide receivers. And wide receiver two is on their team, even if they are the wide receiver two, are still really valuable for fantasy. And here's a stat that I think is really telling for the quality of especially those three rookie wide receivers. Since 2014, 21 rookie wide receivers.

drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL draft have hit an 18 and a half target share or better. So in their rookie year, they were really involved, 18.5% target share or better. All 21 of them maintained at least 18.5% target share the next year. 17 of the 21 increased their target share into year 2. And think about T. Higgins. He's part of that group.

T. Higgins had, you know, 19% target share as a rookie. Well, they spent... He was the waddle of last year. Exactly right, because they got Jamar Chase. And it wasn't because Jamar Chase wasn't good. Jamar Chase was unbelievable. But T. Higgins is still good. Well, I get, and I guess maybe Elijah Moore is even the better comp because they spent a high draft pick on Garrett Wilson and they had invested on Chase in the draft.

Yeah, and so, you know, T. Higgins in his second year had a higher target share than Chase did this last year. So Jalen Waddle had a 24 and a half percent target market share. Devonza Smith, 22.4, Elijah Moore, 18.6. They all meet that criteria. So if you're going to get a discount in the draft because people think their upside is gone, I would say that that's a mistake. Don't overreact. They're valuable for fantasy this year.

It's worth bringing it up. It's one of the fallacies of fantasy football, to be honest with you, is the way – it's how binary we can be when looking at a depth chart because the NFL, the coaches, the players, the playbook, they don't work the way our brains work in fantasy. It's not one, two for these teams. It's not like, you know, Joe Burrow is back there and saying, I have to throw the ball to Jamar Chase first on every first read. They –

design these offensive plays to work to all parts of the field. If you had confidence that T. Higgins could be your number one the year you drafted him, you didn't lose that confidence as a Cincinnati coach and coaching staff just because you took Jamar Chase. But we look at it so between, you know, depth charts on Madden and depth charts in your brain in fantasy football. I mean, I've said my biggest weakness over seven years is trusting wide receiver twos because of that exact perception issue.

So let's not overreact. Okay. All right. Sounds good to me. We did it. We solved fantasy football? Yep. We solved six things in fantasy football. Did we take care of it, Kyle? Are we settled? You did well. Good, good. I always want the Kyle stamp of approval. It's very important to me, the Borgogan. I think that's it for today's episode. One quick reminder, less than two weeks, Ultimate DraftKit.com. Make sure you check that out. If you want to hang out with the community, we do have.

One of the things we offer at Jointhefoot.com is the ability to access Footclan leagues. And so if you are looking for good people to play with, there are not better people than the Foot Clan. You guys are incredible. We've seen countless leagues fill up with people that are committed to playing fantasy the right way. You know, it takes one or two bad apples in a league to basically ruin it for everybody else due to inactivity, not playing players, that type of thing.

So make sure you do that. I don't know if we, have we mentioned on the show that Detroit and L.A. are sold out for the live events? No. So that happened quickly. Yep. And we're very excited. We did warn people that it was going to happen. Yeah. Well, they can, I think there's still tickets in Phoenix. Yes. So you can go to Ballers Live.com if you want to see us in Phoenix, L.A., Detroit.

Those are filled up until unless we hear something else. I think they're completely sold out. So we are looking forward to seeing all of you at both of those venues. It's going to be a lot of fun to be back out on the road doing the live show. I think we're going to do some AMA stuff at those events. So I'm excited. Jason's got a whole lyrical dance prepared. You do not want to miss it. Is that in lieu of the...

The stage jump because of the knees and the age? It climaxes with the stage jump. Whoa. Yes. Yeah, it's going to be just incredible. Well, I mean, you could argue whether the... You should end with it in case something goes wrong. The show's over and then... The post-show stage jump hospital trip. I was going to say the ambulance comes after everyone's already gone. Yeah. That would be easier than trying to remote me in from the hospital room. Are you still going with the Nutcracker Suite?

Or have you decided to change? For the dance? Yes. Oh, yeah. It's got to be classic. I can't think of something more classic than the Nutcracker. Okay. Well, we did it. We got through another episode of the Fantasy Footballers. Make sure you follow the show. If you're on Apple Podcast, click that plus. Follow us on Spotify. Thank you for listening. We'll catch you next week. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on Jointhefoot.com.

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