Week 18 Big Picture - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/4

Yeah, yeah, they can't. And, you know, they've got the new coach. They've been playing a little bit better. The AFC North, what's the situation there with the Bengals and Ravens? Well, they're playing basically for the division. So who wins that game is going to win the division? Very important. I expect full, full steam ahead for both parties. NFC, number one seed. Eagles can clinch it with a win or a Dallas and San Francisco loss. Cowboys, they need to win, have the Philadelphia Eagles loss and lose and the 49ers lose. 49ers divisions clenched can get a number one seed with a win and a Philly loss. So we expect the Eagles to be pushing hard. Yeah. And that's good for your fantasy team. But that game could also get put away. Yeah. And then you said people. I was going to say they need this win for sure. But, you know, Jalen Hertz. Oh, great. We expect to have him back.

If they're playing against the backups for the Giants, yeah, the second half of this game, it could be 24 to nothing and you see the backups completely in there. I mean, it's important and should be too easy. I'm playing my Eagles. I completely understand that that is a risk, but if they've put the game away... Then they put the game away. They put the game away with points and fantasy points, and you're hoping that it was your player that came through with the touch. ETN, not Lawrence. Exactly. Jacksonville last week is the best comp imaginable. I mean, if you had any of the running backs, you were super happy, any of the past the game, you were super upset. But they smoked them, and I expect the same thing here. Speaking of Jacksonville, they faced Tennessee. This is it. This is why we didn't have Derek Henry in the championship round. Winner takes a south.

That is a full motivation game. Play all of those players. I know Jacksonville's favored in this one. Is it three or four points? Let me look it up. Also, in addition, both Zay Jones and Christian Kirk have very achievable. And it's really great the way their contracts are structured. Six and a half. They have incentives that. is big money bonuses for these receivers if they hit them. They're close to some, and then there's like a stretch goal. B&Bs? What? Got some B&Bs in there? They got some B&Bs in there. But so they can. They can hit these big money bonuses. Mike could not put those together. Well, I was hearing B and B. Oh, no. And I was trying to figure out business, not business. Right. So, you know, you beat the Tennessee Titans by throwing the ball.

around and these players in the final week obviously their goals to win the game that's goal one but they know what you know if they're one reception away from hitting a 150,000 or in some cases a 500,000 bonus you know that they know that player yes and players know this oh yeah and players support their teammates and their brothers of trying to get that bag what do you call a big money bonus that has achieved through the passing game. I don't know. Airbnb. Oh, there it is. There it is. Oh, wait. You're going with the rim shot? Well, that was just a perfect, like classic joke. No, that's a rim shot joke. That was a set up punchline rim shot joke. Exactly. Yeah, no, I appreciate it. The number seven seed. Oh, boy. I don't even know if I want to read through all of this. Patriots, they have to win at Buffalo or Miami loses and Pittsburgh loses.

So win and you're in for the Patriots. The Dolphins, you've got to win versus the Jets and have New England lose. The Steelers, you got to win versus Cleveland and have Miami lose and New England lose. The Steelers can make the playoffs. Yeah, the Steelers can make the playoffs. And what's crazy about that. With that Nazi touchdown right at the very end. What's absolutely. Go Tomlin. What's absolutely crazy about that. And then they'll eliminate Baltimore. Get ready. Is. even though you need three things to happen, it is not outlandish for the, like this is, this isn't like you can't see how. We all know they're going to be Cleveland. We all know they're going to be Cleveland. So if they beat Cleveland, you've got Miami that needs to lose and they're on their third string quarterback. I think they're losing to the Jets for sure. And then you've got New England who's playing Buffalo. Buffalo. So this could really happen for the Steelers to sneak in here. I'm all for it.

I'm always pro Tomlin. Yeah, and I'm pro underdog Steelers. Just don't give me the top of the league Steelers. Oh, we won't for a while. Jacksonville? They could technically still get in if they lose, but they need a lot of stuff to go right. So all the earlier teams have to lose along with them and then they'd make it. Basically, all these eight and eight AFC teams have full motivation, start every player in those games. If you're playing DFS, those are important matchups. And then the last one is the number seven seed in the NFC, which, look, I wish, I really wish the Packers' Lions game was a winning in. For both teams? For both teams? Because it is for the Packers. It is, which is wild. Like, if the Packers and Steelers just both get in, you just look at those teams and you say they just find a way. And the NFL is usually so good with the scheduling for the final week of the season for all of these things so that teams.

They can scoreboard watch while they're playing, but they don't know for sure going into the game. Unfortunately, the Seattle Seahawks play in the morning against the Rams. And if they win, then Detroit is eliminated. Now, I don't expect, I don't expect Detroit to sit there guys against the Packers. They're going to try their hardest. It's like with Dan High T. Campbell up there. They're going to go all out to try and knock the Green Bay Packers out. But they will know. And it would be a winning season for the Lions, too. That says a lot to go to 9 and 8. I think they'll have full motivation no matter what. From a standpoint of being able to play players, you're talking about keeping the divisional dominator over the last decade, sending them home with a loss, sending them out of the playoffs. This becomes...

If you're the lines, your playoff game. This becomes your Super Bowl. So the only thing that stinks about it is like I really want to watch the Sunday night football game rooting for the lions to get in the playoffs because I just think that would be cool. Well, I think there's a chance that we might have that wrong. Yeah, because Seattle has the driver's seat there. If the, if the Lions win and Seattle wins, they're in. Not the Lions. Correct. So. Seattle will be playing the Rams and I'm, you know, I'm not saying that that game is a shoeing for either side. So we will have a very exciting weekend. Also, there is a phenomenal write-up on everything we just talked about. Yes. A week 18 playoff motivation and incentives article for Matthew Betts. It lays us out much more clearly than we just did. So take a look at that if you have questions. If you want to resump this discussion, you can go over there. Well said.

And look at that. We're going to take a quick break and then we're going to talk a little dynasty. All right. Well, we thought it might be very interesting for this final segment here. This is the season. Yeah, to talk a little bit of, I guess I'd call it like a first look at decisions to be made in dynasty leagues. Tough decisions. Very tough decisions. I'm not sure these guys after they saw the questions that are put into the show doc today want to do the segment anymore. Look, would you rather play fast pitch? Baseball or T-ball. Cool. Give me T-ball. Jason would take T-ball 100 out of 100. Am I the batterer or the pitcher in the situation? I do. Is there a pitcher in T-ball? Nope. No, there's not. I mean, there's a guy that sets it on the Tee. Yeah, I'll be that guy. Perfect game. Oh, man. But we're going to call it Rider Dynasty. Ride or Die, presented by Chevrolet.

All right, this is the final segment of the year. And while I wouldn't say we are directly competing with one another on a record basis, you know, we're stats-oriented, fellas. Yeah, we might as well look. Yeah, we might as well look back and see what the final tally was. And on the year, Mike missed one of the segments. So he went 24-4-48, 50-50. 50-50. If I could change anything. Even Stevens. I would. do fewer heart picks. That's why I say we aren't really there for record because sometimes we deviated to be different than the other people. Probably for the glory though. You want certain things to happen so you feel like, well, I'm going with the Oprah. I'm just going to manifest. Yeah, I'm going to manifest it. I'm going to use the secret. I'm going to put it out into the universe. That was written about fantasy football, right? Yeah. Turns out.

Doesn't always work. It works about half the time. About 50%. Yeah. Yeah. Unlike no, unlike a coin flip. No, and I was so much better than Mike. Yeah. 26 for 51. That was 51%. And Jason was 56.9%. Nice. He got three more picks. Yeah, you just doubt people. And you win when you doubt. Pess and miss them pays off. But we're going to do a little dynasty edition. Ask you, ask you guys which. player in dynasty leagues you'd rather ride with, okay? This first one. Do you want to ride with Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert? Lawrence is a year younger. I don't find that hard. Really? No. So then I think I know your answer. No, I don't think I don't think you should. I do believe that the average person would find it hard because I'm average. I'm saying that when you.

Hear the name Justin Herbert. And you remember last year's quarterback, too, throwing for, you know, he had a combined 40 some odd touchdowns and was unbelievable. He's young. He's the future. And you feel much more confident and safe because you've got three years of him being good. And he's, I mean, this is a year age gap. This is not an age gap where I think in Dynasty you should be saying, well, I get one more youthful season. I think a lot of people would say it's easily Justin Herbert. I'm on the other side. Personally, I would be riding with Trevor Lawrence. If I look at where the arrows are pointing, I mean, this season, Trevor Lawrence beat Justin Herbert. He was a better fantasy option all year. And if you look at the weapons, Keenan Allen's getting older.

I don't know that they've got, you know, anything in place to make me believe I don't think Jordan Palmer is going to be a future superstar. You know, he is what he is. He's a good, solid NFL wide receiver who can slot in with injuries ahead of him. But to me, Trevor Lawrence, he showed out this year, which felt like his real rookie year since the Urban Meyer experience. Josh Palmer, right? Yeah, what did I say? Jordan. Jordan Palmer is the QB coach. Well, there you go. There you go. Joshua Palmer. I'm going to be honest with you. I'm at the age now where I was not sure if I forgot that his name was actually Jordan Palmer. Well, the good news is Jordan Palmer not an elite wide receiver either. I had to do a dementia check on my side. I had to. Sorry, Jason. That was not that important. Yeah. So you've got better weapons, you know, with Zay Jones and Christian Kirk. And yeah, exactly.

Calvin Ridley. Calvin Ridley, they trained it for him. You want to do a little Calvin Ridley trivia while we talk about this situation? Sure. Do you know? He's the exact same age as Amari Cooper. Did you know that? Yeah, Calvin Ridley was an elder statesman when he was drafted. And Amari Cooper was drafted at 12 years old. He's been here forever. They're the exact same age, went to the exact same school and never played it down together. Isn't that incredible? Yeah, that's why. Calvin Ridley ended up ineligible to play high school football. What? For the final half of his season. Because he was too old? Age. Yeah, he was a 20-year-old senior. And so they had an age restriction at 19 years and nine months, and they didn't let him play once he hit that age. Sure. But kind of wild, though, because you don't think of Ridley. I mean, certainly in the dynasty landscape, I think I would view him as younger than Amari Cooper, but he's not. Yeah, because he's played half the seasons. There's a lot of, there's a lot of question marks. The way I look at that situation is,

Justin Herbert has reached levels of playing quarterback that Trevor Lawrence hasn't approached. And so in that regard, like, you know, who do I think can throw for 5,000 yards? It's Justin Herbert. You know, who do I think can put up a quarterback one year is Justin Herbert? I don't want to take anything away from Trevor Lawrence his season and the possibilities. I don't think I'm guaranteed to be right. I think that there's... Oh, so you are on the Herbert side. I am on the Herbert side. Yeah, and I don't think there is a guarantee that Herbert's the... better long-term player. I don't think that's a lock. But I think it's a heavy favorite. And I think we've seen levels of play from him that are beyond anything we've seen from Trevor Lawrence. Oh, he certainly have. So that, you know, it's a tough one. It's a little difficult if you are, you know, there's decisions that are made in Dynasty all the time that seem obvious and easy and are the wrong ones. So this is one where you could be, if you're in Jason's.

Let's put it to practical implications for your league. If you're in Jason's court where you believe in the future, the arrows, the weapons, whatever you want to say, you're in a position that you could take advantage of this situation quite a bit. You could go trade. Trading Justin Herbert for Trevor Lawrence and picks is an easy thing to do. Yes, that's exactly the way that you do it. You get Trevor Lawrence. Plus, Andy, you do this all the time where you see a slightly younger version of an up-and-coming player and you have a superstar and you trade them for that player plus picks or plus another asset on the roster. That's the way to approach it for sure. So I'm on. Mike, yeah. So I still lean the Justin Herbert side, but this is, I think the other part of the equation here is the coaching staff of Doug Peterson came in.

took Trevor Lawrence in that rookie year that everything you watched on film was, this is going to be a bust of a pick, just an absolute catastrophic 101. And you're like, oh, no, there's the quarterback that the NFL fought was the best prospect since Andrew Luck. You're like, ah, I see it. The fact that Trevor Lawrence is willing to run a little bit more is also, you know, a point for Trevor Lawrence. Meanwhile, and the success that they have had, Doug Peterson has had. you know, offensive success throughout his career was, of course, let go by the Eagles, because nothing's guaranteed in the NFL. But look at Brandon Staley. There was a point in this season where it seemed like if Brandon Staley, I don't remember which week it was, but it was going into a week. Had he lost a particular game, I think, against the Raiders, if I'm not mistaken, but there was a game where there was a groundswell of rumors growing. If the charges lose this game,

Brandon Staley is getting fired. Yeah, and they could be in the patent sweepstakes, that type of thing. And now, yes, they're going to make the playoffs. But that hot seat, if the charges make a run, he'll be much safer. But if they go one and done in these playoffs and they head into next year and they're just another kind of 500 franchise, Brandon Staley's job is going to be in danger. And then you have, well, now what do, who do they bring in? So there's. I think there's other aspects of Justin Herbert's career that aren't in necessarily his control that factor in to his fantasy success. It's hard. You know, if Trevor Lawrence is playing for a more stable organization with a better history, I think it would be easier for me to project that. You know, I don't want it to be lost on people that Justin Herbert threw for 5,000 yards last year, that he had, he had the rushing line that Trevor Lawrence had this year, his rookie year. He almost had it last year. You know, he had the injury.

that he played through this season. Sure. Touchdown variants. You know, we've seen it quite a bit at the quarterback position as well. So it is a judgment call. It is a, it's a gamble. And hopefully, in some ways, both sides are right. You know, for the landscape and fantasy for Dynasty leagues. Yeah, I don't think you're going to be unhappy with Justin Herbert's future. I think there's a chance you could be unhappy with Trevor Lawrence. But the way that I project the future, I think you're going to be happy with both. players. I believe Trevor Lawrence steps it up and is better next year than he was this year and he's pretty darn good this year. Let's do one more here. Who do you want to ride with more in a dynasty format, Najee Harris at 24.8 years old or Giovante Williams at 22.7. I like, I'm actually, I like the fact that you're both laboring because I didn't think you would. When I read this one,

I thought I would get the instantaneous, at least from Jason's side. I don't even know which player. I thought you would instantly say Javante because I think. Two years younger. I think as fantasy players, we like what we haven't seen. And I say that because we do know what Javante is talent-wise. He's got the injuries coming back off of it. But we haven't seen the season, right? We have not had a Javante Williams' Bell Cow Opportunity season. And the fact that that mystery exists in the world of the unknowns versus the greatest known of all, which is Nazi Harris. Like we've seen Naji Harris through and through. We've seen him too much. Like they gave him too many carries. I thought you'd say Javante instantaneously. But has the second half of Javante kind of endeared him to you in a dynasty way? I'm sorry. Naji, yes. This, so I've always.

loved Najee. I think he's a really talented player, loved him coming out of college, obviously disappointed with the first half of the season. And I do think that part of that was the foot. I'm obviously disappointed in the offense. I don't know if Kenny Pickett can really get this offense to a place where Najee is a star. You know, Najee's rookie season was the running back four. Can he get back there? Or is that going to be the best season Najee Harris ever has? When I look at these players, I am scared of the Giovante Williams situation. I love the talent and I love the age. But his injury is significant. He is coming back to an offense that was putrid. They fired their coach. They're going to get a new offensive guy in there. But if it's a Russell Wilson problem, then that's going to hurt Jvante Williams. And if he comes back the way that J.K. Dobbins come.

came back, which is kind of the comp we have for his specific injury. You know, nobody, nobody views, J.K. Dobbins was a lost year this year. Like, you could use him for a couple of weeks. Right. Towards the end of the season here. But for the most part, J.K. Dobbins was a worthless pick and did not, was irrelevant for fantasy managers throughout this season. If that's what you get next year. from javanti and then you're hoping that two years from now he can get to a place where he's never been yet before in his career yeah there are way too many question marks for me to take javanti overnight and i want to be clear too this is not like we love javanti but this is a what early second round pick

This was not the fourth overall pick. This was not Sequin Barclay. This is not Ezekiel Elliott. There's not Christian McCaffrey. This is not a player that is guaranteed to have 100% of the workload forever for your roster. And you've seen that before, like Jason said. I think the J.K. Dobbins, like if I'm asking you, Najee Harris or J.K. Dobbins, what are you doing in a dynasty format? I would take Najee still. I'd go Najee. See, I would too. And so if JK Dobbins is an outcome for Giovante Williams, you are certainly taking more risk in hopes of more reward on the Giovante side. And by the way, can I just say, I'm really enjoying these conversations. Like the dynasty kind of speculative discussions are really fun. So hopefully Giovante comes back. You know, he will not have Melvin Gordon to compete with. The team's going to go through some things.

I mean, you talk about a team with question marks. We don't like nausea because he's got Kenny Pickett. Does Giovante have Kenny Pickett? And we don't know it. Right. Does Giovante have a new head coach that we, you know, you're so far removed from the guy that you, you know, that drafted you? There are some really big Giovante question marks. And that could be, you know, if you slide that. card full of question marks across the table to the manager in your league with javanti you may be able to you know make a transaction that is that is valuable for you to to buy into that upside but yeah javant is scares me to death javanti has a wide range of opinions there are managers out there that would give up a ton to get javanti and there are managers out there that would give javanti away for

probably cheap because they're worried about the future. He's not a one prescription for all leagues type of assets. So if you want to kick the tires on acquiring them, great. If you want to kick the tires on selling, you know, if you could go get Najee Harris plus something because you've got a younger asset. Wait until later. Here's what we know. Giovante is going to be ahead of schedule. Okay. His injury recovery is going to go great. He'll be ahead of schedule. He should be ready to go week one. We know that that report will come out at some point. I want to believe that there is a little office somewhere, and it's called the schedule office. And there's an 82-year-old man that works there. And they go in, and they go in, and his name's Herb, by the way. And they go in and they say, Herb, we got to change the schedule. I mean, everybody's ahead of this schedule. This schedule is from 1954, Herb. But he only has one stamp.

And that stamp that he's got a little red inkblot. It just says ahead of schedule. The red tape is thick over there, guys. The only thing you can stamp. The bureaucracy is just out of control. You can't get this guy a new stamp. You can't change the schedule. No. No, it's ahead. So when that report comes out that he's ahead of schedule and looks good, that's going to be both the time that it's difficult to trade away, Javante, because you're going to go, ooh. He's ahead of schedule. But we're talking about this now. It's going to come. And that's where.

people will pay up a lot. So maybe you get Najee plus a future pick because, man, Najee's getting older and Javante's two years younger. That's the way I would approach it. There's too many question marks with Javante for me to take the upside over the known ability of Najee. And it might depend on the rest of your roster too when you make that choice. And Najee, he feels, you know, dynasty-wise, you're like, wow, this is about to get his AARP card. He's not 25 yet. So we still have a couple more years of Najee Harris playing at a high level. He's with Mike Tomlin, so the opportunities will continue to be there. The fact that we had the second half of this year, and there was the reports of he stopped playing with the steel plate in his shoe. And all of a sudden, Najee Harris, you go, oh, yeah, there's Najee Harris. We remember him.

It's an absolute blessing for fantasy purposes. It's nice because I have, I have a Najee. And like I had the 101 back at that time. And it's like heading into this season, it felt like an absolute disaster. I blew the 101. I got my one year from Najee Harris. And now he's just, he's back into the pumpkin. The clock has struck. But it's like, no, Najee Harris is good. He may never be. Sequin Elite, because that's not the type of athlete he is, but he's a tough dude, he's going to grind it out, he's going to play through some injuries, maybe that he shouldn't play through, but you'll get tons of opportunities and this team is getting better. And you assume that next year, even if Kenny Pickett doesn't get their offense to some great place where you're just like, oh, I want all the options of the Steelers, it should be better, not worse, as Kenny Pickett goes into the next season.

And the second half of this season, like you just talked about, where he was better, after their buy week, from that point on, Najee Harris was the running back seven. That's pretty good. He may end up in that category of productive, never pretty for his career. And we may have to accept that, but that might be valuable. That might be something where he's, he's RB2, high RB. Two for the rest of his career. And that's valuable. Cedric Benson. Sure. Oh, man. Clinton Portis, late career Clinton. Just give me so much volume. Yeah, I mean, there is something to be said about durability and amount of opportunity. Availability is an ability in the NFL. Yeah. That's what Herb said. Yep. That was right at I presented by Chevy Silverado. Learn more about Chevy Silverado at Chevy.com doing a little rider dynasty today as we turn towards the future.

And a couple other things to note. I mean, we will, you know, we'll take care of the 4.9% over the next couple days. We'll go through these matchups probably rather quickly, but we'll lay it out for you if you're making decisions this week. And, you know, the Dynasty Pass, speaking of Dynasty, that's going to go live on Super Bowl Sunday. For those of you that are new with us or need the reminder, we have the... the ultimate draft kit for next year that will start to get into that season. And there's a lot of shows after the year. We'll be two shows a week starting next week. So we'll be here Thursday, Friday this week, and then we'll be two shows a week starting next week. Those will come out on Tuesday and Thursday. We'll have an extra episode for the Foot Clan every week. So you can get access to that at Jointhefoot.com.