Week 17 Matchups + Championship Choices, Weather Worries? - Fantasy Football Podcast for 12/27

And this is going to be a conservative team, probably offensively a little bit. Because I don't expect to have Jalen Hurts there. Low scoring game. It means that the only... Really, the only player you're even considering on the Cowboys side is Rico. And if they're not scoring points against a good defense, I don't want to play him. I'd actually take the under in the total points. Oh, yeah. So you're going to write off Ferguson? Yeah, I think I'm... Ferguson would be the biggest beneficiary in this dink and dunk to survive situation. I was going to ask you if you had to make a desperation pivot to a wide receiver.

Would it be Tolbert? Would it be Cooks? It would probably be sadness. It would be Cooks. Yeah. I'd go... I think I'd go Cooks. Yeah. Brandon Cooks if you have to. But I think there's better pivot options out there. As far as Ferguson, maybe he has an uptick. He had nine targets last week. And you'd be like, oh, great. But since he's been back from injury, I mean, 30 yards, 20 yards. Last week on those nine targets, 40 yards. Like, there's not much there. On the other side, it's hard to be as confident with A.J. Brown and Devontae Smith if it's Kenny Pickett in a game that might be, like you said, a more conservative offense.

Utilizing Kenneth Gainwell, Saquon heading towards the record. I mean, he's 268 rushing yards away. Just imagine he puts up another 150 in this game. And what you're looking at going into the final week of the season with maybe not as much on the line and yet that record right there. The motivation for Saquon going after that record is, like, I expect them to really, really, really rely on the run game and be opening things up for him this week. So 110.5 rushing yard line. I think he – obviously, you're starting Saquon. But I believe you could be really confident in his end-of-game superiority this week.

He should be a top-five back. Moving on to Carolina 4-11 against the 8-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are fighting for their lives. The DraftKings Sportsbook line Tampa minus 8. They're at home. The over-under is 48.5. This is another game where we're going to see some weather. And, you know, anything from scattered showers to some wind gusts, I think this is one you're going to need to track a little bit. My biggest concern here, like, I've been pretty pro-McMillan in the early part of this week. I still think he's going to have the opportunity. But, I mean, you've got two starts of the week at the running back position right here in the show.

And Mike and I went with Bucky Irving and Rashad White because the Carolina running defense is – I mean, it should be in quotes. It should be in quotes. And this is a game where I think, you know, that motivation difference, the fact Tampa is fighting for their lives, that the front seven, the opportunity to push guys around that are pushed – you know, you can easily push them around in Carolina. I think Bucky Irving, he's got a rush receiving line of 98.5. Nice. And I think those guys are going to be the dominators in this one. I'm becoming more hesitant about Baker having a big game.

I think he'll have a good game. Where are you guys at with this matchup and all of the pieces involved? This is one of the games – I'm, like, really, really hopeful that the wind isn't very bad here. There should be a little bit of rain. But I want the pieces in this game. I think Thielen on one side should have to keep up with a very, very bad secondary for the Bucs. Vitavea has made it very difficult to run on them. And you can throw on them. So, I think Adam Thielen's a great play. Bucky, Rashad White, Mike Evans is so close to his 1,000 yards.

He needs 182 yards. Yeah, so he needs 182 yards. He's going to be force-fed the ball. I really, really like almost everybody. The only concerning play – I mean, Bryce Young in Superflex, I think you could put him in. Chuba is a little bit – Unbelievable last week. Yeah, I mean, he was so good. But over the last six weeks – It's going to be harder. You've seen Tampa really shut down the running game. Yeah, I don't want to throw too much cold water on that offense. Tampa's got an implied point total of 28. So, McMillan, Evans, White, Irving, Baker, all in play.

And I think the weather is going to be okay. I don't want to overstate it. Did we say that Shepard has not practiced this week? Sterling Shepard has not practiced this week. So, like, that just – And Cade on now. Yeah, so, I mean, so the, like, the Jalen McMillan confidence because of those players being – Like, it matters. Yeah. So, wait, you're telling me that there's a team implied for almost 30 points who's lost two of his main targets. What are you doing? McMillan looks like a good option. I think he is a good option. Maybe even better than James Conner.

I think he's – he could be. He could be. They'll be close. I'm sure it'll go down to the wire. We'll see what happens on Saturday. Oh, wait, no, that is Saturday. Connor Saturday. Son of a gun. All right. Thielen, 54 and a half. You talked about Chuba, Bryce Young and company. Leggett's not practicing or he's limited. And a dart throw would be Coker in that game. If you can't run on Tampa, that's your wild dart throw of the week. Tennessee's 3-12. Jacksonville's 3-12. Jacksonville, one-point home favorites. Over-runners, 39 and a half. Scattered showers possible. Gross, gross, gross. Jacksonville and Tennessee are 3-4.

Like, the winner of this game is the loser of this game. That is 100% the truth. These teams are motivated to lose. And yet – I mean, the management, not the players. No, and it's just what makes the NFL so unique. It's why Connor wants to play. It's why Kamara wants to play. It's why Olave wants to play. Is that there is the brotherhood locker room aspect of the game. There is – who wants to be here next year is part of what happens. It's not – you know, all of these guys are fighting for paychecks, right? Yes, maybe Kamara and Connor get to come back no matter what.

But are you out there for your brothers? Are you out there fighting to get them a paycheck for next season? Those things come into play. So, in this game, goodness gracious, Chika Konkwo. You should play him. Jacksonville just gave up 10-plus catches to Brock Bowers last week. 34 – or, I'm sorry, they're not good against tight ends. Just to go back for a second, just to illustrate how bad it will be for whoever wins this game. I mean, because these are two 3-in-12 teams. You look at the record, you've got New England 3-in-12, Jacksonville 3-in-12, Tennessee 3-in-12, Cleveland 3-in-12, Vegas 3-in-12.

You're going to – you have the chance to go from, like, the second to the – like, out of the – Yeah. I mean, it's a – like, these teams should be trying to tie or something. But they won't. They won't. And so, who do you think is – just like last week we said with the Raiders game, similar situation. It was which team is worst coached. That's who's going to win. Raiders won. So, is this Jacksonville? Jacksonville wins this one? Well, I think maybe Tampa's – or Tennessee is soft on defense, maybe. You know, I think I have more trust that Mac Jones is going to air it out.

And I think Mason Rudolph's going to play conservatively. The over-under is low. I think it's a three-point game, and I don't know who wins. And whoever wins loses. So, ETN, his rushing line is 38-and-a-half. Goodness gracious. Try to do something else. Like, Brian Thomas is the player. You play. Yeah. Because he's been unbelievable, double-digit targets. Chig, Brian Thomas. Ridley is a touchdown opportunity. And then Tajay Spears, Jason, you mentioned it. If Pollard misses, which, for goodness sakes, Tennessee, give us this. If you're going to be this bad, just give us some clarity at running back. I'm not – Because Tony Pollard can have – an injured Tony Pollard can run on one of the worst run defenses.

Yeah, Tony Pollard – Like, I'll play him if he's active. You'll play Tony Pollard? Yeah, over Kendra Miller or Gibson or anybody? Sure, right? Yeah, if you're that low, I think you're right. Over ETN. I think if Tony Pollard is active, Tajay Spears is still a player you can start. Tony Pollard was active the last two weeks when Spears was the running back five and the running back 12. Exactly. Wink. Last week he missed practice the whole week. Pollard did. And then played, but played, you know, a minority of the snaps. Ceded a ton of work to Pollard, who, you know, is used both around the goal line and in the passing game.

So in this matchup against Jacksonville, I think Spears is an okay play. Miami 7 and 8 taking on the 3 and 12 Cleveland Browns. Another over, under, under 40. Miami 6 and a half point road favorites. Heavy rain is in the forecast. Miami needs to stay alive. They've got to win. They have a slim chance, but they could do it. Um, but if LA and Denver wins on Saturday, they're toast and both of them play on Saturday. So there's that Miami to a H and Tyreek, Johnny Smith. Any hesitation with those four core four? Uh, no hesitation for Johnny. Tyreek is just, it's, it will be interesting to get actual.

information at the end of the season of like, what happened? How do you go from Tyreek of last year where wasn't he chasing the record? Yeah. And then you go from that to where we are right now, which is on pace for, he's on pace for under a thousand yards. I was just going to look at that. He's at 834, but you have to remember how many games he missed this year, which is none. He has not missed a single game this year. From 1799 to 834. And we did get the report of like back when he had his, his, uh, incident with the, with,

with the police. And he said he got hurt during that. So that sort of mean of like, how do you go from last year to this? But I'm still, I'm still playing. Dolphins have made a choice that if they want to have two as their quarterback, they change the outfits. His, his average yards, uh, per completion was, you know, went from, or sorry, average depth of target went from nine to seven to now five. Like, like, I don't know if it's depth of target or average completion, but they've all gone down because this is the way you play with a quarterback that has the risk of being

knocked out for his career. If he's hit. Yeah. So you have to make the adjustment if you want to miss your quarterback or it, or they've chosen to some of that. And also just, can they, they know they can't run the ball like eight, eight, eight on the ground is not what a Chan was like, was last year where he was basically every time he was handed the ball, you're like, Oh, here comes a 20 yard run. That has not been the case this year. He's gone from 7.8 yards per attempt to 4.2, which is still really good. But yeah, not having the long plays like last year on the other side, Dorian Thompson Robinson

could be him. He's been limited. Could be Bailey Zappi. Could be a combo. What's crazy is DTR. His, I was average at the target. I don't know if you could call it a superpower, but his only ability, his strongest trait. There you go. As a quarterback is, is the wheels is to run. And if he's got a calf issue and he's a little bit immobilized and he's going to be a pocket passer. Okay. Is done with Judy for the year? Yeah. I don't know how you can start him. I am starting him in one league that I just kind of have to, but I don't want to.

Same with Jerome Ford. I have to play him. He's DK rushing yard. That's not high. Is that 50 and a half? Yeah. Miami's defense, very good against running backs for fantasy purposes. Like, I don't want to play anyone on the Browns. And you mean, you have David Njoku. He's hurt. He hasn't practiced all week. Getting an MRI. And like Ford is everyone on this team. I'll just put it this way is it's, it's more of a desperate start. Brown and out. We're not doing it. Not messing around with that team. Implied point total is 16. Yeah. Green Bay is 11 and four Minnesota, 13 and two.

Here's what's interesting. DraftKings sports book line. We have double checked this screen. Bay minus one on the road. Hmm. That's pretty crazy. Over unders 48. Why? You know something you don't know. Yeah, I know. It does feel like that. It's like what you're, you're going up against a 13 win team at home and they are the underdogs, which seems pretty crazy. Now the Packers, the Packers have been a great team in their own right. You got to remember they lost Jordan Love for a little bit of the year. And so as an 11 win team, obviously these are two very, very good teams.

Green Bay scored 30 plus in five straight. I love that this game is in a dome and has a 48 point over under on this week. This is the game that I want. Now I do worry a little bit because you have two good defenses here and it's a divisional game. So does this turn into one of those really disappointing defensive slug fests? It could. But I also look at this game as one of the few games on the slate this week where it's like you could get a back and forth offensive output without worry about rain. And, you know, even if the first half starts slow, once teams start scoring and the other

one has to catch up. These are two teams that generally do. You know, if, if, if the Vikings are down there, they're generally going to air it out and catch up. And same for the Packers. Well, the Vikings stopped the run too. I like Jordan Love in this game. I think Jordan Love has a great opportunity to kind of put it all on display here. This is a game. They need him to do that. Jaden Reed in the mix. Then if you want to hit the nitro boost, you want a shot as an underdog. It's not your, your shots. Probably not Adam Thielen.

It's probably somebody like Jaden Reed or Dontavian Wicks. Um, Christian Watson has not been practicing this week. Dontavian Wicks, the, the matchup against Minnesota, the deep passing on that secondary. When you can't run on them is great. So that's my dart throw of the week for, um, if you need a guy off of waivers that you could throw into your lineup, you know, if, if he was available instead of my Jerry Judy, I would, I would 100% put Dontavian Wicks in over Jerry Judy. What if, what if like Romeo Dobbs was available though? Dobbs is an okay play too. I mean, okay.

Thank you. Is he playing for you? Dude, I have no choice. They were like, yeah, CD lamb. He's done for the year. Uh, can, can, can bone Walker. Oh, he's no, he's done. CMC done. Yeah. So, you know, cool. You, you have so much depth in your dynasty team. And I've always thought, I was like, man, you could consolidate some of that for more power. Thank goodness. You got it. Thank you. Jefferson. You no longer have depth. No, I do not. You just have starters. Now, uh, Aaron Jones, Jefferson, Addison, play them Hawkinson. He is a sketchy play. He is.

Chig or Hawkinson. I'm going to go Chig. Yeah. That's the number one search on our website. It, that one is not like I can pound the table with complete confidence that say, Oh, Conkwell will have a better game than Hawkinson. But the volume for, for Hawkinson is just, it's not there right now. Okay. Anybody else in that matchup that you want to talk about? Josh Jacobs. He's been dominant. Yeah. Aaron Jones receiving and rushing line is 86 and a half. Jacobs is in a bad spot against Minnesota, but it doesn't matter. Sunday night football is Atlanta and Michael Penix Jr.

Eight and seven, uh, with the ability to hold onto their, uh, top spot in the division facing the commanders. What pick was Penix? Eight. I think. So the eighth pick versus the second. Yeah. All right. Washington, three and a half point favorites. The overrunner is 47 and a half. Uh, Kyle, I don't know if you know where it opened. This is a game where rain is likely. It could be heavy rain. It's on Sunday night. So I'll get to watch it in isolation as each drip drop falls down onto the field. Uh, you do have a running quarterback. You know that though, right?

Like that's a good thing. Yep. Looks like the line open minus four and a half. Um, sorry, I meant the over under. Do we know an overnight? Is the over under adjusted due to, to weather? It's held steady. Okay. All right. Both teams highly, highly motivated. Washington clenches a playoff spot. If they can win this game, Atlanta clenches the division, if they can win this game, which is wild. Yeah. I know because of how bad they've been for the last two months. What is the Tampa scenario this week? Because Tampa has to lose. Well, no, for the, that that's for Atlanta's purpose.

I'm saying, um, if, if Tampa wins, which they're playing Carolina and heavily favored and Atlanta loses, which they're underdogs that gives Tampa the, um, I'm trying to see. They play. They play the saints final week. Yeah. If Tampa Bay wins and Atlanta loses, that puts them back into the lead. Okay. So Tampa can take the lead. I just wanted to know what that sets up for the final week there. Washington. It's been really, really special. Jaden Daniels, uh, his passing and rushing yard line to 73.5. Now, Terry McLaurin didn't practice Wednesday limited on Thursday. Is this just maintenance for their main guy?

Uh, I mean, I haven't heard anything to the contrary to the contrary of that. And he, yeah, we're, we're playing Terry. We've also got Bijan Robinson in this game. Another one of Al's guys, maybe Darnell Mooney in this game. I mean, Al is, Al's needing this game to be, be a good one. Okay. I, I, I think, I think it could be the fact that the, the over under is held, um, and hasn't moved due to weather fears. That's, that's, that's good. And Bijan is going to get a ton of work in this game, especially if there's bad weather. Um, his rushing attempt line is 18 and a half.