Big Time Breakouts + Let's Ride, Mailbag! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/23

Quote, it wouldn't surprise me if there's a game this season that Naeem Hines has 10 catches. Naeem will be very much integrated into the game plan on all three downs. Still enough snaps for him to be very, very productive this year, very productive, end quote. And he was. He was the number one waiver wire pickup that year in week one. He did. Frank Reich wasn't even lying. He had a game where he had 10 catches. But he's not the same caliber or class of an athlete. or as a running back as Jonathan Taylor. So when push came to shove as the season went along, Jonathan Taylor got the job because he's the dude. He's a superstar prospect. That's what Breece Hall is. That's why they drafted him high trading up at the second round. And Michael Carter is not going to keep him on the back burner. I don't necessarily think that Breece Hall is going to come out and have Breece Lightning week one, week two, week three. Bruce Lightning. Go Breast Lightning.

But I do think at the end of this year, he's going to win people championships. Jonathan Taylor, by the end of his rookie year, was a top 10 running back in fantasy football and won people fantasy championships. He will break out. And next year, he will not be in the fourth round. He will be at least a second round pick. Mike, do you have any thoughts on Breeze Hall? I'm with Jason that he's an incredibly impressive running back in college. And I'm trying to think back. I don't have the number right in front of me. But the percentage chance of second round running backs beating out the starter by the end of the year for fantasy football. Because if Michael Carter is truly the concern, because I pulled all these numbers last year for Giovante Williams. And it was over 60% of the time that the rookie is the one finishing higher in total fantasy points at the end of the year. Now, what does that mean for the Jets? That's the biggest question mark.

I agree the peripheral pieces. Basically, he has to be Jonathan Taylor, that narrative story, not the other second round running backs from the last five years. Because Taylor's the only one that's been in the top 15 at the end of the season. The rest of them, it's a less than 50% chance they're even top 20. And he's being drafted at RB19. So I think that, you know, I worry about a shaky offensive line in New York. I worry about Joe Flacco. and whatever this offense is going to provide. I worry about a really brutal beginning of season schedule. Yeah, that part sucks. It's like, you know, we talk a lot about would you invest in DeAndre Hopkins that is ADP for missing the first six games? It's like, I don't disagree with a couple big points that Jason made. Number one, this is the furthest back you're going to probably draft Brees Hall for the rest of his career, relevant years. That's for sure. Because to me, I look at Brees Hall, the breakout story, and I think it's,

I think it's more next year than it is this year. So I think he's drafted higher. And then the other part is I think you can win people fantasy championships. It's just I don't know how to navigate the first eight to 10 weeks if it's going to be. I mean, this is Mike LaFleur. This is RBBC historical. This is, you know, I've got all these Pokemon I want to pull out and use. And I think the superior athlete will win out. But I don't know if he can do it in New York with this Shaky O line and injuries and Zach Wilson transition halfway through the year. Like those are my, how do you draft Brees Hall if you think he's good from week nine on, for example? Like how do I do that as a fantasy player, which is one of the reasons why I'm more hesitant? Well, the number was, so combos of running backs where the rookie received a touch in at least 10 games. So, you know, like you're weeding out.

Guys who just didn't play, guys who got hurt. So when the rookie was active in 10 games, the veteran only beat out the rookie four of 19 times, 19 instances where that has happened for the second round. And I would argue that the further and further we get into NFL history, like the closer to today, Breece Hall was the first running back taken. Like it was the second round, but people don't go top five. top 10 running backs anymore. The NFL's caught up to like, oh, we don't need to pay these guys a ton of money. That doesn't help. We got Sequin. We got Christian McCaffrey. We got these great backs and they all went to bad teams and who stayed bad. So I think that his draft capital is very, very good. And the O line, PFF right now has the O line for the Jets as the 13th best O line this year and they just signed a new. That was pre-backed in though.

I did look that up. It was pre-Brecton injury. But also pre, who is it they signed, Dwayne Brown? Yeah, Dwayne Brown, big money contract just after the beckton injury, whereas the Colts line right now is, I believe, ranked number 10. Yeah, it's hard. It's more of a harder draft navigation, not a lack of confidence in Breast Hall, the player. You know, it's like D'Andre Swift, Jill Mixing. You know, these guys are superstar athletes, but their rookie seasons weren't Jonathan Taylor. That's where it's like, You know, you're making a bet, right? And I am scared to bet on the Jets personally. But the athlete himself, I mean, we've seen in camp that he's, you know, he's a different caliber than Carter. And to be clear, none of my hesitation on Brise believes that Carter will have a better fantasy season than Breece Hall. I don't think that's going to be possible, but.

I've heard in camp, they're saying Michael Carter is a much better pass protector right now. At this stage of his career, that could keep Breece off the field too. The final thing I'll say is Breece is in the running back dead zone where generally I don't want running backs. A few emerge every year because that's just how things work out for fantasy football. But if you're going to make a bet in the dead zone, bet on you. Bet on a rookie. Bet on bed on upside. Don't take. Don't take seasoned veterans in the dead zone. That doesn't work out. If Brees was drafted to a better situation, this would be Clyde Edwards-A-Layer type of draft capital you'd be spending. So you're getting a Jets discount. That's being built in. It would have been the same if he went to Houston. You would have been going, uh, what do I do? So that's built in where, you know, I think we all have Brees around.

1920 as a fantasy finish. But that might betray the fact that he could be top 10 in the back half of the year or something like that. All right, quick break. And then guess what? More Jets. All right. Mike is going to share his breakout. By the way, do you, a little point of trivia for you? Do you know the last Jets running back to finish top 15? Do you remember who that was? Chris Ivory. It was Chris Ivory. It was a man. He ran. He ran ferociously. He didn't run angry. He ran furious. Yeah, the Thomas Rawls level of running style, which, by the way, I think Damien Pierce has that too. Mike, who is your breakout pick for today's show? All right. What can possibly go wrong on a breakout show when two-thirds of these players are on the New York Jets? Nothing. I'm so happy I'm not with you guys. My breakout pick, it's Elijah Moore.

second year wide receiver for the New York Jets, who was fantastic. A second round pick just a year ago finishes the year, you know, with 43 over 500 yards and five touchdowns because the guy was hurt for quite a lot of the season. Now, I have been hesitant and scared of Elijah Moore on both sides of the argument of... saying, well, he's on the Jets. I don't think Zach Wilson is a good quarterback. Can he really repeat what he did last year? And then on the other side, he's insanely talented. The guy is so smooth running those routes. He has fantastic hands from weeks 9 through 13 last year. He was the wide receiver 2 in fantasy football. He was dominating when he was the wide receiver 1, 21, 3.

Wide receiver 39, nine. And then unfortunately had the injury that took him out for the rest of the year. And one of my arguments for when you bring up those numbers is, well, Zach Wilson wasn't really the quarterback when those things were going on. But I'm going to bet on the talent of Elijah Moore. Since 2014, rookie wide receivers drafted in the first three rounds. If they hit the target share that Elijah Moore hit, which was 18.5 when he's playing, they at least maintained that going into the next year. And he's not an outrageous draft pick, Elijah Moore. Like he's not going in the fifth round. He's down there, you know, in your home league's probably going to go late 7th, early 8th round. You have Joe Flacco talking about him saying, Elijah Moore reminds, the explosiveness reminds him of Steve Smith. And I don't think that's.

An egregious thing to say. I can see it. Watching young Elijah Moore, like he's, he separates. He's always open. He was targeted on 24% of his routes. That is an absolutely outrageous number for a wide receiver to hit, for a rookie wide receiver to hit. And I want to point people to to Amun Rae St. Brown, who. is a good wide receiver, had that massive breakout at the end of the year. Amun Ra was for fantasy purposes useless until the week 13 breakout where he had the six-week stretch, where he won people fantasy championships. I totally understand the context that the impact of that is much stronger. The Elijah Moore run was five weeks. Just not in the same. It wasn't at the exact same time. It was in the middle.

Well, and he's on that they're both on bad teams. What do you? Are you really that much more confident in Jared Goff than the combo of Joe Flacco and Zach Wilson? To me, these guys are in very similar situations. Both had very similar breakouts. And Elijah Moore is going two rounds after Amun Rae St. Brown. This is not a knock on St. Brown at his draft price. I'm saying it's crazy. What if it's in either or? If you have to pick between the two of them. Six round Amman Ra. Eighth round, early eighth Elijah Moore at draft clause. Are you making the Elijah Moore decision here? If it's if it is just a heads up situation, I'm going to go with Alman Ra. But I think that both of them are great draft picks. We want you want to target second year wide receivers because these are the guys who go later on in the draft.

You know, sixth round is not a really high draft pick. And eighth round is definitely not a high draft pick. And these are the guys who can really break out, make a huge impact on your roster and catapult your team. Because the reason that they go there is you're not 100% sure that they're truly that great. Can they really get things done? We make all these arguments of, well, here's why they probably can't do it. Here's why they did it last year. But second year players, like we said, That's when the breakout happens. Maybe it's not their true ceiling yet, but it is the breakout. And to get such a massive discount on that type of a player, I'm going in. What can go wrong? Jason, do you have any concerns about, like, how do you respond to the? I have great concerns. Well, the Corey Davis, Garrett Wilson involved. Obviously, those guys weren't on the field last year for at least some of this run for Elijah Moore. Do you just think talent's going to win out in a T. Higgins sort of situation?

You know, I think there's an argument to be made Joe Flacco, a quarterback, might be better. As a passer, I think for Elijah Moore. As a passer, I think it's an upgrade right this second for this team. It's not an upgrade for the team's future and their outlook as an organization. But getting off to a hot start, I think Flacco would help Elijah Moore and Elijah Moore's talent, given the fact that Garrett Wilson is a rookie. And Corey Davis is just a, you know, a solid wide receiver three. I like betting on the talent and the upside and what we saw in a short stretch when it doesn't cost you much in your fantasy draft. My only worry about the Jets quarterback situation right now is like Joe Flacco. If you could tell me Joe Flacco gets three seconds to stand there and then find somebody and pass it, he's 10 times the current quarterback Zach Wilson is. My concern is he's a statue.

Yeah. And they, I mean, you read the camp reports. Those boots on the ground watching Zach Wilson, who's very evasive. Yes. Who can get out of the pocket. Swallow it up on every play. Swallow it up on every. It's like Joe Flacco, you better have like a battalion in front of him to give him a chance to do the things that he's probably still capable of doing with his arm. But you get, you got a little Carson Palmer situation there in New York that you fix that up. That offensive line gives him some time. I'd feel so much safer about a consistent start of Moore or Corey Davis or any of those players. He should play barefoot, you know, his legs are too heavy. Those shoes are weighing them down. Oh, you think he's wearing steel-toed cleats? Yeah, I think he's got too heavy as shoes. I never have heard that theory with these cement mixer quarterbacks. Last year, the Jets, I mean, heavy, heavy target utilization to the wide receiver position.

The Zach Wilson individual numbers of him targeting running backs was very low, was 15% or so, which would rank among the bottom. So, like, concerns for Brees Hall, that is one of mine, is, is Zach Wilson the type of quarterback who is so elusive and scrambling that he feels like he can hit the big play and doesn't take the checkdown? Which, I mean, that's more targets for the wide receiver position. And so even if it's Flacco, if it's Zach Wilson, I'm going to bet on the talent that I saw of Elijah Moore breaking through, especially in the eighth round. Not an expensive bet. Yeah. All right. Give me a one sentence bonus breakout pick. Jason. I'm going with Rashad Bateman.

because he is a second year wide receiver. Second year wide receiver coming into enormous opportunity with a former MVP at quarterback. Pretty solid case. Mike? I'm going to go with Cole Comette, very late round tight end that should see more than 20% of the targets. All right. I'm going to go with Chris Oliva wide receiver for the New Orleans Saints. I think at the end of the year we'll be saying, oh yeah, he's the clear cut number one. He was my favorite. collegiate wide receiver to watch work out there in the secondary. Don't mind it. Let's do some mailbag. Mailbag. All right. Kalin in Zeeland, Michigan. Hello. That's not the new one? I was ready to bonjour it. It's old Zealand. Oh, man. Should I keep T. Higgins in the sixth or Antonio Gibson in the seventh round? T. Higgins. For sure. Instagram question. Is drafting Kyler Murray in the seventh round too early? No.

It's usually too late if you're just saying my ADP, hope he gets there. We have not discussed Cliff Kingsbury handing play calling duties to Kyla Murray in the preseason. I love it. One of my biggest concerns for Kyler Murray throughout the course of his career is it seems like he relies more on his physical tools than the actual play or the coaching decisions. I had all those thoughts. Then you have what study gate where. Yeah, where they have to bake in some study time. The clause was written into his contract. You have to have these dedicated hours. And because you have the quotes of Kyler Murray being like, well, I just kind of go out there and ball. That's, I mean, that's not the exact quote. But the quote is I don't sit there for 24 hours and break down this team and that team. Yeah. And watch every game because in my head.

I see so much. Yeah. Okay. I mean, that quote is, I have always been successful. Therefore, I will always be successful. Yes. So my concern for him has been like, get, dig into the offense. I'm going to use that for fantasy analysis. I am going to the well with that. I see so much in my head, guys. That is the worst quote imaginable. The fact that you're on the side. Sure. Seeing everything happen, getting to really call the place. The best quarterbacks in the league are the ones who are at the line of scrimmage taking over the offense because they know it so well and they know what's going to work. Well, my biggest concern for Kyler has been Cliff. So the less you get Cliff doing, the better. Yeah. All right. Here's a question from Instagram. Corey writes in, how does your board change if your league is standard and not PPR? Well, I would say the biggest shift is between which positions to take.

In a standard league versus a PPR, running backs are going to be so much more valuable than wide receivers. When you're talking about the, you know, 12 through 24, the second players, the flex options, those are going to be running backs outscoring wide receivers that are those middle tier wide receivers. You know. Within each position, there's a couple of guys that are more touchdown dependent and less volume. That's going to be better. But I would say the biggest change is just taking running backs over wide receivers in similar tiers. Agreed. Instagram question from MCO-8 says what Colts wide receiver other than Michael Pittman has a shot to be great for fantasy? I'll let you guys talk about Mr. France over there. Paris Campbell? Yeah. No, I mean, the.

Awful Tower is not necessarily who I'm going to go. Oh, yes. To the well. Why are you got to do them like that? The awful tower. Why are you going to do them like that? I didn't want to. It was like pun versus belief. I just, I didn't know what to go with. I actually like Paris Campbell, but Alec Pierce is the answer. I'm going to go with youth, upside physicality, not injury history. kind of more of a Jack of All Trades, Curtis Samuel type of player. Paris Campbell's career being stolen from all of us is a travesty. It is a travesty. Many a career have been stolen in such ways. I might be my favorite nickname of all time. I'm sorry because I know Jason will never not use it. A lot of people when they see the Eiffel Tower, they say, oh, I didn't know it was that small. And then this, so this fits with the awful tower. It's like, oh, a little, little guy. Are you guys, do you guys agree it's Alec Pierce? Yes. That would be my answer for sure. I mean, if you are a hardcore fantasy football degenerate.

who plays in a ton of dynasty leagues. And you were with us the entire offseason and pre-NFL draft. Alec Pierce doesn't get enough buzz because he didn't prior to the NFL draft. He wasn't one of these guys that was touted as like, oh, he's going to be a first or second round pick. No, he just showed up in the second round. But he was a second round pick. So we've got to change the presuppositions and the, you know, don't have confirmation bias. This team invested highly in him. Which if you listen to how Frank Reich talks about him, so similar to when they draft the Michael Pittman. Because Pittman was a second rounder, too. Yeah, he was. And it was like they went up and they got Pittman and what they believed they could scout. They took Pittman before Taylor, right? They did, yeah. Yes. So to me, it was, it's a very similar language they use around Alec Pierce. They clearly need him. That would be the other case, right? You guys have made a lot of pro- Matt Ryan arguments this off season. Yep. Or at least leaning toward. Matt Ryan greater than Carson wins. Thank you. Those arguments.

Which is really, I mean, that's, that's a low bar. Yeah, it's, it doesn't really share how I feel about mine, because I think he's good. To say someone's better than Carson Wentz at the quarterback position. They could still be bad. Is not saying a lot. Yeah. All right. That's going to do it for today's show. We're going to be not good back with sleepers. A reminder, ultimate draft kit.com, all of our tier based rankings, premium staff projections, 100 plus video player profiles, the brand new custom cheat sheet creator. We got custom player marking so you can follow along in your draft. We have Sleepers Breakouts, Bust, and Values that we all agree on inside the Ultimate Draft Kit. Oh, thank you, Al. For the people. Yeah, this is what they want. That's when you hope they're listening on a lower fidelity system somehow. All right, that is going to do it. Check that out at Ultimate DraftKit.com. We'll be back with Sleeper Picks tomorrow.

It's a good show, guys. You did a great job today. Oh, you did too, Andy. Thank you. You're looking very handsome. Oh, well. You know. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.