Early Breakouts & Sleepers + The Panderbear: LIVE in Detroit - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/21

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Oh, oh. Hey, hey, Detroit. We're playing fantasy football here. I'm not a pander bear. I'm staying in the same position. But my breakout pick this year, I've talked about them on the show quite a bit, it's A.J. Dillon. Yes. Do you know off the... That's okay. That's okay. I see the Vikings fan. Also, not happy with that. Makes sense. Look, they're booing, and they're going to be drafting him. Yeah, yeah. I mean, just...

Put your head down, make the pick. Do you know off the top of your head about where AJ Dillon is going, ADP-wise? Do you have a guess? Off the top of my head, I would say seventh or eighth round? Yeah, I mean, you're right. He's basically 29 right now at the running back position. And the worry with A.J. Dylan, you look at this season, they lose Devante Adams. We've done a lot of research. Kyle in particular looking at vacated targets. Who benefits in an offense? You always want to take Sammy Watkins.

or whoever else they bring in and say, hey, Alan Lazard, the incumbent wide receiver is going to get all those targets. It's generally been the running back that benefits the most in terms of vacated targets and volume. Now, this is not me saying that A.J. Dillon is going to be the pass-catching running back on this team. That's Aaron Jones. So the worry for people and why you're going to see his average draft position lower and stay lower even into draft season.

is because of the worry of the shared workload. And I talked about it earlier with Melvin Gordon, Giovante Williams. What does it mean when you have two really talented backs get a lot of touches? And we looked back over the last decade, running back teammates, they have 200 plus touches each, and we wanted to see what was the result. Because last year, 223 touches for Aaron Jones, 221 touches for A.J. Dylan. Whenever two running backs get that many touches,

Both of them have always been top 24 running backs over the last decade. That has never not happened. Even last year with A.J. Dillon. So right there, you have a built-in value drafting A.J. Dillon. And, you know, it's been well said. Jason is a Kareem Hunt fan. And part of that compelling argument for Kareem Hunt is the, what happens if Aaron Jones goes down? What happens in that offense? We call it a flex with benefits.

Oh, I like that a lot. Do we, do we call it that? We do now. If you're nasty. Last year they split the goal line carries, and A.J. Dillon has become a part of this offense where they want to put both guys on the field at the same time. And then he caught more passes last year than he did in all of college. So we saw, I mean, I think we were maybe a little surprised.

but he looked like he was acclimated to the receiving game, able to do it, able to be a checkdown in important situations. You had AJ Dylan drives, you had Aaron Jones drives. So I think you look at that situation, the upside of if Aaron Jones goes down, the necessity to center the offense on the players that you know, and it's not going to be Randall Cobb that you center the offense on, Dylan, Aaron Jones, and company. So to me, this is an opportunity where you know, historically,

RB 24 are better. That's what these guys do with 200 plus touches with a lot of upside. Yeah, I really do like the insurance aspect of A.J. Dillon. Five years in Aaron Jones has played 16 games or a full season, one of those years. So it's pretty likely that Aaron Jones gets a couple, if not a handful of games, where he gets to be the dude. He can be.

a good flex option on a normal week with both running backs active, but it's rare that when you grab that running back 29, that you can be confident you get a couple monstrous must-start weeks. You get that if you draft AJ Day. He actually averaged more yards per touch than DeAndre Swift did than Joe Mixon did than Giovante Williams. Have you seen his legs? I mean, he's a big guy. Yes.

So, and you were so in on AJ Dillon last year. I'm sure you don't disagree. Oh, I'm 100% in on A.J. Dylan. The guy, he's fantastic. His, like, his actual athletic measurables are, like, comparable to, you know, Stephen Jackson. You can even whisper the name Derek Henry when you're talking about a 250-pound guy that can run a 4-5. Derek Henry. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for. You said I could do it. I know, but then it was, like, an S&MR podcast. Yeah, it was a little bit weird. A little too.

Flex with benefits. Yeah, let's take flex with benefits. All right, I'm going to jump in here. I also have a running back that I like to be a breakout pick, and we're dancing with the devil a little bit here. You're really in here. We're talking about running backs that are generally, that's considered the running back dead zone of that, you know, range three to six or seven. But I want, no, that's not David Montgomery. I want to talk about Miles Sanders from the Philadelphia Eagles.

Oh, yeah, go ahead, boo the Eagles. It fuels me to boo the Eagles as well. Well, I mean, I think Miles Sanders in particular has left some wounds, some burns, right? There's some scars. Absolutely. We're talking about going into year four. Unfortunately, last year had some injuries, and he finished as the running back 45. But the biggest problem for Miles Sanders was not opportunity. It was just...

Really, really bad touchdown variance and bad touchdown luck. To begin the year, he was looking at 13 opportunities. Anybody watching an Eagles game was screaming at the top of their lungs at the television. They would boo. The people on the stands would boo every time they'd pass the ball. Give the ball to Miles Sanders because every time he was touching the ball, he was just gouging the defense. Unfortunately, he gets hurt, but right when he gets back from his injury, 17 opportunities per game.

But here's where the bad luck comes in. Since the year 2000, running backs with 130 carries in the 700 rushing yard range with no rushing touchdowns. Okay? So 130 carries, 700 yards. Like, that's not awful for a running back. But since 2000, only five times has a running back hit those numbers and not scored a rushing touchdown. With fun trivia fact, one of those running backs was Michael Pittman Sr. What?

Yeah. Oh, neat. I'm the Cardinals. I remember Michael Pittman. And also, Michael Pittman, senior, super yoked. Like, this dude is ridiculous. But we can't draft him anymore. You couldn't draft his. We built this. Yeah, baby. So, like I said, really unfortunate, Miles Sanders had zero touchdowns. Running backs last year in that 700 to 800-yard range, they were averaging five rushing touchdowns. You give him just five.

Miles Sanders' outlook is completely different, and he's not being drafted as the running back 27 on underdog and bestball tournaments right now. In four healthy games when he came back, he had two games over 15 points with no touchdowns. That is absolutely ludicrous to get in that point range if you cannot score. Is Miles Sanders good? I would say yes. Since the year 2000, through three years of their careers, running backs like Miles Sanders,

who are averaging over five a carry with 400 carries, there's only 10 guys, which, another trivia effect, one of those other players, Gus Edwards. So like we were whispering at the top of the show, Gus Edwards also good. And then I'll give you one more factoid here from Miles Sanders, because I'm giving you a lot of hardcore data right now. It's delicious data, as the front row says. When running backs hit the 700-yard mark, and they repeat that,

That second year, they're averaging eight rushing touchdowns. Miles Sanders is going to bounce back in a big way, assuming he still has success on the field. The rushing touchdowns are absolutely going to come to Miles Sanders and the Philadelphia Eagles. They were the most rush-heavy team in the NFL, which will dip absolutely a little bit with AJ Brown, but it's not going to completely change the DNA of this team that made it to the playoffs with Jalen Hertz.

I've been in, I've been out on Miles Sanders. It's scary. But that market price of, on Underdog, like I said, in the seventh, on Sleeper right now in the sixth, Miles Sanders to me is a running back too that you're getting in the dead zone. So, Jason, I am curious, and we're not going to put your breakout pick up to a vote because we know we'll win. But Miles Sanders and A.J. Dillon, they're going in very similar places in basketball. So I'm just curious, like, maybe I'll ask the audience.

I thought we were asking Jason. Well, I... He's very easily swayed. Someone said put it to a vote. And he was like, well, that guy did say that. We'll ask Jason's opinion after we hear whether he panders to the crowd opinion. Okay. And if you're on the Miles Sanders size, let me hear from you. Okay. Okay. And I know the divisional rival here, but if you're on the AJ Dillon side, let me hear from you. Wow. So Jason. I wish you let me go first.

Because it is AJ Dillon for me. I worry about the rushing touchdowns of Jalen Hertz. That's the big scare. Now, Boston Scott had plenty of touchdowns. And I don't expect him to be, you know, the main rushing touchdown leader. I like Miles Sanders. I think he is very talented. But I do worry about, you know, it's like if next year Miles Sanders has four touchdowns.

That won't surprise me at all, and you'll be a little disappointed. Now, if he has eight rushing touchdowns, he's going to be a home run pick, and I will say this, going back to that pro football focus, you know, where the Lions have the top three offensive line, the number one line. No, you don't say. Is the Eagles. Yes, sir. Okay, all right. You agreed with the audience. I hear you. Sleepers. Everybody's favorites. Jason.

Yo. What lion have you selected? Wait, wait, wait. It sounded like you said Jason's everybody's favorite. Well, I mean. Tonight. I guess in this room that's, yeah, that's fine. Oh, my goodness. There's nothing. There's nothing, just like his soul. This is water, of course. It's one of those four-shot cappuccinos from Dan Campbell, right? So which lion did you pick is your sleeper? Yeah.