Week 15 Buy or Sell + Playoff Strategy, Almost Football Time - Fantasy Football Podcast for 12/16

say, you know, I'm relying on Nelson Agilor in my semi-final matchup. But I think he should be a solid option. He should be a top 36 wide receiver. And he always has the upside to have a big finish because of the red zone work. Over the last four games, Nelson Aguilar has seen 22% of the targets. Like, that's good enough, man. Well, and Henry Rugg is now out. So it's just, you know, set up for success for Aguilar.

And Jason made a good point on Sunday live this past week, which nice job, by the way, filling in for Mike. And on Sunday live, you reminded people that, look, what do you want to do? You want to win the title? Or do you want your team to look good on paper? Sometimes you win with these players at the end of the year that don't look like they should be in your lineup. And you brought up Tim Hightower with the running back for the Norland's think.

Oh, no. The Hightower, yeah. Although Tim Patrick fits the bill too. Because, look, you just need to win. That's at the end of the day. And what better team to talk about? Just win, baby. Nelson Aguilar. So Hunter Henry, eight targets last week. Always a possibility at the tight-in position for a touchdown. Darren Waller, you play them each and every week. No questions asked. Oh, yeah.

All the way through to the end of the year. Yeah, and Hunter Henry, I mean, of the Chargers players who are hurt, Echler, Keenan Island Limited, Mike Williams is the one I'm most concerned about. I mean, he got knocked out of essentially the entire game. And if Mike Williams is out, I expect more downfield shots to Hunter. Yes, it's been a couple weeks since he's had a good week at the tight-in position.

He had three straight top 12 weeks before that against Buffalo, the Jets, and Miami. A reminder to take your Thursday night players out of your flex position. Make sure you have injury and COVID flexibility later in the week. Otherwise, I think we're ready to do some mailbag, Mike. The last one I would throw out is it's a bit of a desperation, but maybe you're in a PPR, but Hunter Renfro with Henry Ruggs being out, I think that you're going to see a,

a significant rise in targets for Henry. Yeah, and the Chargers have been... Or Hunter, sorry. Chargers have been pretty good against the tight-in position over the last six weeks, so maybe Waller doesn't get every one of those PPR type of targets. So I think that's a good point. The accountant can be out there managing the books for you if you're desperate. So let's do some mailbag. Mailbag. Mailbag, yeah. Not football time. Look, we've moved past that.

All right, 302464 TFFB. That's the voicemail hotline. If you have a question for the show, you can also go to the website, the Fantasy Footballers. Click the submit a question button. Let's kick this off with a voicemail question. Yo, yo, yo. Happy holidays. Four point league, would you start Justin Herbert or Tom Brady? Oh, man. Four point per touchdown league. Oh, Big Herb or the plant, man.

Yeah, I think I'm going to go with Tom Brady in this one. Tom Brady against the Atlanta Falcons. Yeah, who are, you know, on the year they're dead last against opposing fantasy quarterbacks. So there's opportunity there. It's funny because I feel like Brady has, I think genuinely this week, Brady has like a little bit higher ceiling and a lower floor. And I feel like Herbert is.

pretty safe to be at least in that middling tier. Like Brady can be outside the top 20. That's just he's shown us he can do that. He's done it twice in the last five weeks. But he's also had a number one overall finish. Yeah, I don't see Brady having a low floor personally. His low floor is, you know, when you've got a really good pass rush, when you've got the Saints, you know. Well, he's 20th last week against Minnesota, though. That was supposed to be a smash matchup for Brady. What do you think about that finish?

Well, if you remember the game, and I remember it closely because I was playing Brady. Brady was very good. He had a nice deep touchdown to Scotty Miller, had a nice one to Gronk, and then all of a sudden the game got out of control, and they didn't need to, they didn't need him at all anymore. And they just ran the clock, ran the ball out, and that was the game. However,

Because remember the first quarter was like deleted by the Vikings. So that was a little bit of a weird game script. I don't think it was Brady being bad. And against Atlanta, who's, we've talked about this recently, been great against running backs with a broken finger Ronald Jones who might miss the game. I just don't think they're going to be able to run the ball and they'll be able to pass. So I do like Brady. He's, I mean, we might be talking about it. I would go Brady. Yeah. Mike Ben. No.

The plant man knows how to win in the playoffs. I'm with you guys. I lean Brady here. All right. Here's an annual debate that comes up this time of year in the fantasy football community. And Justin wrote in about it, but I've seen it all over the place. And I also am in leagues where they go different directions on this. Justin asks, should non-playoff teams be participating in the waivers?

We had a non-playoff team drop Mike Davis last week. It changed the playoff landscape tremendously in our league, including a heated discussion in our chat group. And, you know, there's nuance to this question to me. Sure. I agree. There's redraft leagues, right, where you are, you know, complete, like, if you're not in the playoffs, the season's over, you're going to draft a brand new team next year.

How do you feel about this? I mean, I'm in leagues where if you're not in the playoffs, you are not eligible for pickups during waiver day. I'm in leagues like all of our leagues where you can participate week to week in the waiver pickups. But we play in at least multi-keeper leagues most often. So.

Right. And obviously, if you are in any kind of a keeper league situation where something you do this year can still have an effect on next year, then of course you should be making transactions. You should be picking up possible, you know, rookie guys that could have a veteran injury or a free agent signing away that you could keep next year. But in those redraft-only leagues,

The way that I view it is if your league doesn't want these transactions to make, that just needs to be the official stance of the league. Without that, I always encourage everybody to play through, play on.

Keep making your best decisions and waiver wire pickups. And that's going to help you next year. You know, we talk about, oh, well, your team will be better next year in a keeper league. If you do pick up the, you know, the undrafted free agent who ends up becoming a thing next year and you can have them be your keeper, well, you don't want to know the truth. Your team will be better next year for you paying attention and playing through to the end of the season because you will be better as.

the general manager. So I am in favor of it. Now, specific to this question, dropping Mike Davis. That's a problem. That's a problem. That's not helping your team in any, I mean, we don't know the context of who he picked up or whatnot, but it seems like that's just bad. That's just, that's stupid. So I would, uh, I would say you can't have things that ruin the integrity of the league. Mike, did you want to.

way in here. I will say this. If you play through, you're going to reduce the odds of this Mike Davis situation happening. Because, you know, if that's like the precedent of your league to keep going, you know, people do consolation brackets, people do points-based week. Like Mike's in a league where they give a reward every week for the total highest points. I think it's a really strategic smart way if you're in a money league to have a little bit of a weekly bonus because then if you play through.

The integrity of your league stays strong and there's something to play for even if you're not in the playoffs. Yeah, I'm with Jason that play through. I want to win. I don't want to be last place. I don't want to be second to last place if I didn't make the playoffs. I still want to finish as high as I possibly can. And, okay, I don't understand why you need to shrink the pool of fantasy managers who get access to these players.

I mean, you're still going to have then people complaining of like, well, this person had the waiver priority. And it's like, no, just keep playing all the way through. I get that you're in a much higher stakes situation than me if you're in the playoffs and I am not. But I'm still going to play through. And I'm trying to be a bit of a realist in the fact that, look, if you're eliminated from a redraft league playoffs, you really.

You need, that's why I like the whole weekly reward type of situation set up at the beginning of the year because we're human too. Like Jason's right. And if you want to be a better player, you're going to pay attention at the end of the year because so much happens that defines the next year. But you're also probably, if you just miss the playoffs or you're burned or you're feeling the competitive juices aren't there, that's why it's nice to set up the format of your league to incentivize that a little bit. Or set up the format of your league to outlaw it.

You know, if the league majority says, we're a redraft league, it's Bush League when you do that, which I completely disagree with. But if that's how you feel, then put it to a vote. And if the majority of your league feels that way, that should be the rule. But if that's not the rule, then you're playing by the rules. Yep, agreed. And obviously it should go without saying, but you're not, don't solicit other owners to sign players or do anything to benefit you. Let's go to another voicemail question.

Hey, ballers. Who did you start at Flex this week between Cam Acres against the Jets or T.Y. Houston? Thanks, well, so. Oh, man. Oh, I'm playing Camemakers in that situation. I'm going Camacres. Yeah. I mean, you still have two years of hoping T.Y. Hilton was good and two weeks where he was.

That's my argument. And you have 29 carries for Cam Acres last week. Excuse me. Three weeks where he's been good. That's true. But Jonathan Taylor could have 29 carries this week and you never see Tyoy Hilton. That is a possibility. That is a possibility. It was funny because when he said Cam Acres or.

Like, I felt like I'm like, well, I'm done. It's Cam Acres. But then he said to Y. Houston, I was like, oh, dang, he's going to be good. I would still take the volume. Whenever you've got that razor thin decision between two really good options, I think they both have great weeks, then you take whoever has the more guaranteed volume, and that would be Cam Acres. And it's not just the volume. He's playing the Jets.

Like this is Cam Acres is in a smash spot. All right. Twitter question from Claire. Claire says, is it worth hanging on to Alexander Madison as the cook manager? What is your line for dropping him? Is it worth it to stash a DST and or to block my opponent? I love this question. I love the way you're thinking.

I am in leagues right now where I'm, I was in the studio yesterday and talking to Jason. And I have a matchup, CBS league that I'm in. It's a charity league for St. Jude that I won last year. You hear that Jamie Eisenberg? Oh, he's coming for you. Oh, we're in a semi-final matchup, him and I. And I thought about, like I have Josh Allen and I don't need Tayson Hill. And Tayson Hill might not start for more than one more week.

And I'm sitting there going, well, I need to pick somebody up. Can I drop Taysam Hill? Which kind of feels like this Madison decision, right? It's a gamble to drop somebody that someone else could pick up. And I looked at my opponent's roster and I said, he might pick up Tassam Hill and play him against me. I have to hang on to him. So I didn't let him go. Those are the type of gambles that you're making here. Now, if Cook goes down, well, it would have to happen right this week. So having Madison this week isn't going to help you.

So you would be holding on to Madison for a one week potential cook injury, and then you have to weigh that out against the benefit of stashing a DST or blocking your opponent. It comes down to what other running backs do you have? And so, like, where is that line of, you know, heading into the next week and your...