AFC East Breakdown + Best Draft Spot, Bragging Rights - Fantasy Football Podcast

I would rather have Jordan Reed on my roster right now, hoping he gets signed somewhere than one of those guys. Yeah, I guess it's Ozzy Ozzie, but he's a rookie tight end with under 800 collegiate receiving yards in his career. So, ew. And let's be honest. Thanks for the gross question, Mike. You're welcome. And let's be honest. A head of Jordan Reed would obviously be Dan Arnold, the postman who will dominate. Why are you bringing up Dan Arden? We're trying to talk about the Patriots. We're talking tight ends that don't matter.

How dare you say the postman doesn't matter? Just statistically, Mike, not in actuality. Thank you. Not in your life. All right. Before we get on to the Buffalo Bills, I want to thank today's sponsor Omaha Steaks. Omaha has been making me into a master chef. I am a chef. If you did not know that, I am now a chef thanks to Omaha Steaks. They're offering their Steakhouse grilling packages with an exclusive offer.

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Free to complete your Steakhouse experience. Visit Omaha steaks.com type footballers in the search bar. All right. Let's talk about the Buffalo Bills last year. They went 10 and 6 big additions. This offseason, Stefan Diggs, third round rookie running backs, Zach Moss. They lost Frank Gore, although Gore did not retire. Don't be silly. Of course. And, you know, Josh Allen last year made some strides.

This team was, you know, we talk a lot about it wanting to have an identity in terms of running the football, which I think is important for Josh Allen to have success at the NFL level. You need to be able to run the ball because he was a very successful play action quarterback. He was not a successful quarterback outside of the play action. But they didn't run the ball disproportionately last year. They were willing to put the ball in Josh Allen's hands.

especially over the back half of the season. And I think that there are a lot of high fantasy expectations for this team this year. A lot of players that are just likable in terms of, you know, Josh Allen being that later round quarterback that we all think could, you know, win you a week because of his rushing prowess or even end up top five on the year. Devin Singletary is interesting. There are question marks around his role in the offense. And this Stefan Diggs.

Diggs is so difficult. I found this out. Last year, he was the fourth player since 1992 to have 1100 yards on fewer than 100 targets. He's very good. He's very good. It's ridiculous. And honestly, I could see that exact recipe working for Stefan Diggs in this offense again this year where, no, the targets aren't what a number one wide receiver demands once should receive the kind of things that makes.

made Stefan Diggs unhappy in Minnesota, and yet the production could still end up there in terms of total yardage. He's been drafted at the wide receiver 26 right now. I think I'm just comfortable with him right there. Yeah, I think he's a value there. We've talked about this early in the off season a lot. I was much higher on Diggs than you two were. But when push came to shove, I didn't see him as a top 15 wide receiver.

But I do see him as a wide receiver too. I think he gets north of 125 targets when I look at how this team's going to break it up and how they're going to play. Their pace of play at the end of last season picked up dramatically. A lot of no huddle. A lot of no huddle. All of a sudden, they weren't this low volume team. They were a high volume team. And I think, look, getting Stefan Diggs.

only helps that. You've got personnel to stay out there on the field with three really good wide receivers and just keep the defense without being able to substitute. March down the field. I'm really excited for what this offense could do, and I do think Diggs will be efficient and have enough volume to be a locked and loaded wide receiver two for me. So at 26, I think it's a slight value, not a huge value. And when it comes to Josh Allen, look, he's not the best real-life quarterback.

But he is a very good fantasy quarterback. But it's going to be a tale of two halves, I worry, because you start the season. I like drafting him. The Jets, the Dolphins, the Rams, the Raiders, you know, it's not the worst schedule there. But on the course of the season, the Bills played the eighth easiest schedule of past defenses last year, and they played the eighth toughest in 2020. No offense faces tougher increase in caliber of past defenses.

According to Warren Sharp, who that's the one that I trust when it comes to actually looking at strength of schedule because it's not, it goes much, much deeper. It includes free agency and things like that. So on the course of the season, Josh Allen is, he's either going to take a major step forward as an NFL passer or is going to be in for some trouble. Mike, did you want to contribute any thoughts on the Stefan Diggs discussion? All my Stefan Diggs comments are always related to Josh Allen's

inaccuracy going down the field. He could throw the ball very, very far. We've not seen it be accurate last year. On deep passes, he was the 29th rated quarterback, which is one spot ahead of Mitchell Tribisky. It's also two spots behind David Blow. So, David Blow, more accurate going down the field than Josh Allen.

That's because when David Blount went down the field, Kenny Galladay was reaching up and grabbing these things. These are adjusted completion percentages. So it tosses out. Like if the receipts were dropped the ball, that gets knocked out of this. One of the problems that Devon Singletary may face as the running back here in Buffalo is the same situation we have with Sony Michelle, where vulturing goal line opportunities, very easy to have happened to you with Cam Newton with Josh Allen. Last year, Devon single. You may not even get them.

Yeah, that's it. I mean, he didn't get him last year. He didn't get him. Yeah, he may not be on the field to get them. Last year, Devon Singletary had three carries inside of the 10, and they all came in one game. Now, he scored. Like, I don't know why they decided to go away from him. Meanwhile, Frank Gore last year, 18 carries inside the 10 and produced two rushing touchdowns from there on those carries. But they just kept going to Frank Gore. So I think that's...

That will be a problem for Devin Singletary and his ceiling because Zach Moss, he can play that role. A lot is being said of the Bills want Zach Moss to play the Frank Gore role. And the way I read into that more is that Zach Moss will be the goal line running back. Singletary is he's one of those players that might be really annoying to own. He's going to be like Philip Lindsay.

Yeah, there's a category of players where they're on the field, and it's like first and 10 from the 18. And you know, if Singletary doesn't score on this next run, he may be off the field. And unfortunately, that is just, you know, he's a fourth round pick right now. He's RB23. They say they'll want to involve him in the passing game more. But that can be a really annoying fantasy player. Yeah, look, if they gave him the opportunities, he would score. I remember scouting him in college, and I wrote down.

that I think he would be an awesome goal line back, which is so weird because he's a tiny undersized 200-pound guy. But I wrote down, man, I'm going to draft him super high if he goes to the Saints or the Patriots, a team that will see that and utilize him there. I think if he gets the opportunity, he'll crush. So there is upside there. But I think all three of us project him to not get the opportunity. And so if you're not.

really a pass catching back and you're not getting goal line. It doesn't matter how good you are. He's going to be great between the 20s and at the end of the day, going to disappoint your fantasy roster unless they give him the goal line he deserves. And I don't think Zach Moss is good enough to have that role. And if you're in on Zach Moss, just so you have context, games with Devon Singletary, Frank Gore averaged about 11 opportunities per game. So if he is in that role,

Like that's maybe if you throw in the goal line that maybe Zach Moss has value, but I think he's going to be a running back that if you don't get a touchdown, you got a really bad fantasy day. The tough part about Buffalo is I think they're going to be a really good team. I think they're a top 10 NFL team. And here you have their number, you know, the highest running back in fantasy drafts going at RB23. And so there is, to Jason's point, there is upside. If things go the right way, if they do involve Singletary in the passing game or if he gets

To split those goal line opportunities with the Zach Moss to keep defenses on their toes, that would be, you know, you're going to have a guy that finishes above RB23, but there's just more risk. I like running backs on great teams. I like running backs on teams that are going to move the football. Now, are we? New Jersey, I'm sorry, New York, Miami, the Rams in Las Vegas to start the year as well. Are we overlooking John Brown, who was the number one wide receiver?

on this team last year. It was pretty solid for fantasy football. I know that Stefan Diggs is there, but in the range of outcomes, do you see no positive signs for John Brown? Jay, Stefan Diggs is there and has eliminated him? Yeah, best ball.

Best ball, sure. He'll catch a deep pass, take it through a touchdown. That's fine. But the volume is going to shift over to Diggs. You didn't trade the world, pay the man as much as you did. He's been working with Josh Allen already. I mean, this is Diggs. Dig will have a target market share of the team that renders the other guys pretty much useless if you are trying to predict which weeks to start them. I mean, Cole Beasley and John Brown, they'll be on the field. They'll get...

receptions, they'll have some touchdowns. So there'll be a couple games that are fine, but you're not going to be able to start them on a regular basis. There was only four games last year that John Brown ended up inside the top 24. And that was without Stefan Diggs. Beasley demands a lot of targets. I don't think it'll be easy. He's a player that you could roll out there and hope. That's no question about that, but I think he is a complimentary type of wide receiver. Yeah.

All right, let's talk about the New York Jets somehow shocking to me. I know that we watched football, but it was still a surprise to see them at 7 and 9. Couldn't believe it myself. I mean, they came off, I believe a 4 and 12 year with Todd Bowles. Wait, what the Jets were 7 and 9? This is what I'm saying. There is a certain, there's a certain state. No. I know.

I know they really were, Mike. I'm quadruple checking this. You can quadruple check it. Please do because all three of us we saw in your mind, Mike. The Jets won seven. The Jets are 0 and 16, I believe. No, no, I don't figure with three and 13. They were seven and nine. They had to start the season with what, Luke Falk at quarterback for three games. Was that the hand that Adam Gaze was dealt? And yet, this team did not show signs statistically of being an improved offense at all. They just.

weaseled their way to seven and nine. It's a make or break year for Sam Darnold, yet he is 23 years old, which is younger than Joe Burrow. Is he younger? I think Joe Burrow turns 23 later this year. I believe that Sam Donald is younger than Joe Burrow. I will fact check myself. Oh, Joe Burrow is 23 right now. Yeah. December 10th. So yeah, regardless, the point is we know. Donald just turned 23. There you go. So he is younger.

And so Darnold is in a position where we knew that coming out, how young he was. Hasn't been great, but this is a player that last year was under pressure. 42% of the time he was dropping back and he had Jameson Crowder to throw the football too. Chris Herndon wasn't there. Not a lot of options. Robbie Anderson up and down. These are my excuses for what's transpired for Sam Darnold. He was seven and six, man. He was above 500 with that team.

With that offensive line. 31st in rushing yards per game. 31st and rushing touchdowns. 29th and passing yards per game. 27th in passing touchdowns. Their defense was pretty good. I have wrongly when I've been looking at other players and saying, you know, oh, they've got this team, this team, and the Jets out there that they're playing. The Jets defense was pretty legit. So I think they deserve a lot of the credit. And the offensive line changes this year.