Bounce Back Players + Jason’s Soap Box, Dynasty Download - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/6

you're getting a bigger explosion player in George Kittle than you are Darren Waller. But he is not Travis Kelsey. That is the other message, the tempering of the hype or potential bounce back. He just isn't. I mean, you look at the last three seasons for George Kittle. He is averaging 6 for 75 and 0.4 touchdowns, 5.586.3 touchdowns, 6 for 79.3 touchdowns.

Those are not Travis Kelsey's numbers. They're just below. But they're just below consistently, if that makes sense. So you're getting far better guarantee at health, far better guarantee of production with Travis Kelsey. That's not a shock or surprise. But here's who should target George Kittle, the people that drafts at the top of your draft. Oh, you're talking like the two, three turn. The two, three turn people. The Dalvin Cook Christian McCaffrey people. You get to go two, three turn.

take Kittle with one of those two picks and then fill in your blanks from there. I think that's who should be targeting them. Kittle is in his prime. He's healthy. I mean, he's no Kyle Pitts. You know, Kyle Pitts clearly. Not genetically speaking. Yeah, I mean, yeah, they're different humans. Yeah, right. But they're literally different. But I just think that, again, that short memory of fantasy players.

If it's me, you know, I think Kittle is, Kittle can offer your team more if everything goes right than even Darren Waller can because he can offer you double-digit touchdowns. He can offer you number one tight-end overall production. You remember he broke the record at the tight-end position in terms of receiving yardage back in, what was it, 18? Yeah, didn't he have it for like an hour?

was one of them. I think Kelsey had it for an hour and then Kittle took it. Okay, that's the direction. Yeah, that was the direction. That was crazy. So, and you want, you want the tight end that you pick at the first or second round to be able to go out you and win you a week, go out there and win you a week. Number one overall tight in multiple times. Saw that in 2019 where he finished number one at the position, you know, three different times and in that top five a lot. So, you know, it's one of those things where you have to throw, you have to choose to throw the injury risk out. If you don't want the injury risk,

If you think George Kittle, it's inevitable that he's going to miss three or four games with injury, then you go Waller. I mean, you don't have to take that ride if you don't want to. And that's a pretty silly, you know, there are a handful of players that I do avoid because of injury risks. Ironically, a teammate Debo Samuel, who's been injured just about every year of his entire life back to high school. But George Kittle has, you know, he's.

He played 15 games, 16 games, 14 games. This was really the first season that was completely derailed by injury. And he tried to play through. Like, there are also players who will play through anything possible to play through. Those are, like Travis Kelsey has been injured more than you think. He's just willing to fight through those things. And that is, like, the heart of George Kittle. If George Kittle, you know, can be out there.

He will be. So I do. He's the man. A couple of other points out there. San Francisco has the fourth easiest schedule, I believe, or the easiest strength of schedule in the league? Is that the fourth easiest? It's the easiest in the league because they were fourth in their division last year. So they do have the easiest overall schedule, according to Warren Sharp at least. And then he averages the same. This is interesting. He averages the same yards per target as Tyreek Hill 10.01.

So that's that explosiveness that you see in the offense with George Kittles. So you know Kyle Shanahan is a genius play caller. He's not going to not use this weapon in George Kittle consistently. So barring injury, he's a guarantee top three at the position. Yes. So that's a big deal. I've got some other names. Okay. Let's hear them. This is from Twitter, bouncebacks? Yeah, Zeke. I believe in a Zeke bounceback. You do not. Is that correct?

Yeah, I can see it. I mean, I can see it happening. I mean, all of these we can paint a picture. Calling for it. Calling whether we believe it's going to happen or not. I believe it will happen. You believe? I believe he belongs in the back half of the first. Okay. So, Joe Mixon. I believe Joe Mixen bounces back. It has a great season. I do too. Carson wins. So I was talking to Mike about this. I don't know if you heard this. It must have been a great conversation.

I believe he'll be okay for fantasy, but I think I've come to the standpoint where I don't believe he's a really good quarterback. So I do not believe he'll bounce back. So I leave for a day, and Mike Wright convinces you. This actually had nothing to do with any conversation with Mike. I was just letting him know the conclusion I came to on my own. I don't believe he's a good quarterback. Cooper Cup. I mean, you just talked about Matthew Stafford.

His pathway to that season has to come through Cooper Cup and Robert Woods. Yeah, 100%. I think Cooper Cup is a value right now. I do too. There's too much worry about Woods and Cup, not knowing who it's going to be. And so they've both kind of fallen a little bit in drafts to a good value. What about OBJ? Nope. He will bounce back to exactly what he's been since leaving Eli Manning, which is worthless.

Yes, by the end of the season. Darnold? That's not a bounce back. You can't bounce back from what? A number of people put Sam Darnold in. From his college days to now? I mean, is he bouncing back to college? I think, yeah, I mean, you're talking about like draft capital, you know, will he bounce back to what the thoughts of him were going to be? Bounce back to the dream? Yeah. No, no, I don't think so.

I so desperately want to say yes. I believe in the Carolina offense. But it's just so hard because he's never been good. No, he hasn't. But the Adam Gase thing is real, man. You're with Adam Gase and you look bad. And then all of a sudden you get a good, because he's going from a bad coordinator to, I believe a very good coordinator. So I'm like, I mean, I am excited to see if Sam Donald can be like, oh, yeah, look. The, the.

skill set and the tools that we all saw are there. And he's still so young. You know, it's not like he's cemented into what he's has to be forever. What were the, what was the Panthers record last year? Below 500. I, I don't know what to declare of Matt Ruhle quite yet. I feel like he gets, he gets a pass in the fact that like Christian McCaffrey wasn't there, right? But.

It should be said, right, that Teddy Bridgewater was selected, right? Mm-hmm. And then he was played. Mm-hmm. And then you can make fantasy arguments for Teddy Bridgewater. But they were 5 and 11, and he's gone. Right. Like, so we have done this. Right. Is that fair? I mean, we've done this one time. Matt Rule has picked the quarterback, brought him in, been wrong, and left, he left town.

Yeah. Has anybody ever talked about that? No, no. In the projection for Sam Darnold? Oh, I think, I think a lot. I mean, I think when you look, all of our projections of Sam Darnold are more the Teddy Bridgewater than the break-out. I don't think we're calling for that. You know, I go back to Matt Jha Rule's college resume, and maybe this is too much narrative leaking in, but I remember last year not wanting to forget this, the fact that.

Program after program after program, and that rule would go in, and he completely turned around these terrible programs. But the first year there for each and every one of them was trash. He just comes in and it looks just like it was, and then the second year, everything turns around. And the way they drafted last year, entirely on the defensive side, super youth movement to the defense.

I do believe in the Carolina Panthers this year. I do believe in Matt Jaw Rule, and I think... Well, they're not better than Tampa. No. They're not better than New Orleans. No, it's a tough division to be in right now. They might be better than Atlanta. Yeah, I could see that. I could see that. Yeah. It's going to be interesting. And look, I'd love to see Donald succeed. I mean, if you're plunged into the hellscape of Adam Gaze, I'd like to see you emerge with a life like Ryan Tannehill managed to do. So it'll be...

Be good for Robbie. Be good for DJ Moore and company. It's a good team for fantasy options, too. All right, we're going to do a dynasty download. Dynasty Download. For those of you listening and not watching, today's Dynasty Download visuals were Mike on Powerline's body. And I believe that that is a heartbreak for Mike, not being able to be a part of that. I'm so happy he didn't see that. He would have been way too happy. Way too excited, but Jay Grau's got to peek at it.

All right, topic for today's dynasty download, Jason, is a, it's a subject that we've brought up in the studio recently because part of the draft analyzer that we are, you know, a feature we're adding to it is if you have a dynasty team, we want to give you an age breakdown of your team by player and position and show you plot out on a map, peak production of players, and then when the wheels start following off, which I think right now in our.

draft analyzer that's called the old busted years yeah and so we're looking at running backs because we know how valuable they are to the season that you're in you need them to win and yet their shelf life in dynasty leagues is very very short and we had an article that went up on the website great article yeah Marvin put it up there the life cycle of a dynasty running back and he looked at every running back season since 2000

looking at fantasy production and age, 57.4% of all RB1 seasons since 2000 fall within the age ranges of 23 to 26. So the likelihood of a running back being an impact starter for fantasy declines heavily at age 28. That would be the old busted age. Well, that's not the old busted age, but that is starting to. So for the purposes of dynasty, right, you know, last season.

Getting something for Todd Gurley and Dynasty was pretty much impossible. The season prior to that, you could get a haul for Todd. Now, Todd Gurley's out of the league. I mean, maybe he'll come back and be a backup somewhere. I expect he'll sign and be still irrelevant. And this happens over and over and over and over. It happens with every single running back, not named Emmett Smith, basically, that, you know, eventually the game is over. And it happens quick. It happens suddenly.

for the purpose of dynasty fantasy, you don't want to be caught holding the back. Yeah, the bag has got no value. That's the problem, right? Once you are holding that empty bag, you don't get any value for it. Right. And what you can do is if you time it right, and obviously we don't have a crystal ball. We don't know the future. So there's obviously, we look at a lot of historical precedent and we try to get lucky, which is trading

great fantasy running backs one year before the end. And that means they'll have a good season this year. But it means at the end of next season, the wheels will start falling off and the value will go way down. People won't pay up. Andy, we've brought this up before. You've done it time and time again. You traded Todd Gurley at peak for Dalvin Cook.

who was not yet broken out and a bunch of other stuff. And immediately from there, Dalvin Cook was just the better player. You got the better player in the deal and then you had multiple firsts or something like that. So maybe there's a couple things to remember. And I'm going to bring up four players that are at that year 26 or beyond. And we can say whether we believe you should make that move now. But I think the thing that is important.

is if you get real value for them today, it doesn't matter if they have a great season, right? You've brought that up a bunch. So I think maybe keeping your mind when we're bringing up these names, trading them for a Cam Acres, a J.K. Dobbins, a DeAndre Swift, somebody in that young running back category entering that early peak and whether or not you'd make that move. Does that make sense? It makes complete sense. I think that's the right way to look at it because, like you said,

Let's say the wheels don't fall off. Yes. Well, so what? You got fair value. And so you traded good wheels for good wheels. You're trying to trade one good year for four good years. Right. Math checks out. All right. Alvin Camara is 26 years old. These are all running backs on their second contract. Do you trade Alvin Camara now? So Alvin Camara is one of those guys that is real. I think the opinions on him is very wide.

There are some leagues that still believe Alvin Camara is a star stud. He was, you know, in a lot of scoring formats, he was the number one running back last year. If you can get a haul for Alvin Camara, I would trade. I would trade Alvin Camer for, you know, like Camacres or Jonathan Taylor plus picks. If you can get the youth for Alvin Camara, I would do that. He's one I wouldn't. And part of that is because of who he is.