Bounce Back Players + Jason’s Soap Box, Dynasty Download - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/6

Look, last year's 17 game pace, which you did that with Thomas, take the injuries out of it. He's still 92 for 11, 90, and 10 on 1119 targets last year with Tom Brady. Brought it up again on the show many times, but year two in the Bruce Arian's offense is always better for the quarterback. And unless you're doubting Brady on age, I think we're going to see a well-oiled machine in this offense. And Brady loves him. His quarterback rating when targeting.

Chris Godwin's 131.7. Fifth highest in the NFL. This is his guy, and he could very much be his number one throughout the year. Mike's brought up Antonio Brown and him being in the offense. Obviously, Mike Evans is there. But from a talent perspective, he wins at every single level on the field. And there were pretty much, you know, no differences in where he was targeted on the field between the number two overall fantasy finish and the number, you know, 32 injury riddled year last year. So I do think that in the fourth round,

You know, we have short memories, fantasy players that just want to chase. I mean, you forget how long or how far Stefan Diggs went last year's draft. Mm-hmm. So Godwin in the fourth round to me, he's got top 10 upside. He could have top, you know, eight, top seven. What are your concerns with a bounce back from Chris Godwin? That year that you brought up, Michael Thomas number one, Godwin was number two that year.

Yeah, I mean, I don't have any problems with the Chris Godwin balance back. I see it. I think this is going to be an outstanding offense. And Brady, you know, the second half of last year, starting the week that they signed and activated Antonio Brown. They had Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin, healthy. And what I want to say, narrative-wise...

is I worry about consistency because you've got three legit options. That's not even to talk about gronk or Brady's tendency to throw to the running back. And with that many miles to feed, it's going to be difficult to be consistent. But it's just probably not true. We saw it last year. They were all very consistent for wide receiver metrics.

during that run up to the Super Bowl. So I think it's just a great offense. It's so long as the, you know, minor knee surgeries on old man Brady aren't a problem. I only see two outcomes. I see Brady collapse and it's the end. And because someday it will happen. Or Brady is an MVP candidate because he's got these weapons and those weapons are great for fantasy. And that's the one I'm betting on. And I saw you took Brady in the mock draft.

Oh, yeah. I mean, Brady's my quarterback five. You must have been happy that I wasn't there to fight for him. I was. It was very nice to have to drop to me comfortably. And let's be realistic with Godwin. Bounceback doesn't mean he has to go back to the number two fantasy finish necessarily. Last year on a per game basis, his touchdown per game average was the same as his 2019 number two overall finished. I like seeing that. Point six touchdowns per game on a per game basis. His yardage, it was five for 70.

per game as opposed to six for 95 and then number two overall finish. But playing through injury, acclamation, not there, some of the season. I think, you know, he's 80Ps, wide receiver 16, top 10. I think he can finish as a top 10 guy, which would be a steal in that range. So only two wide receivers, by the way, last year finished at 90 plus at every single level of the field. Godwin and one more.

And I doubt you'd guess it. I don't know if you saw it in our showdown. I didn't see it, but there's no way I'd guess it. Because I saw, I saw Kyle post this on Twitter, and I know that nobody got it. Yeah. I'll say the behind the line of scrimmage is the key. Oh, so is it like Debo or? Getting closer. Ayuk. Ayuk. All right. That makes sense. Yeah. Only Godwin and I. You graded at 90 plus at every single level of the field. So.

Okay. That was a good hint there, Brooks. All right. You want to hit your second bounce back player? Yeah, my second bounce back player. This is one I am not as confident in as Michael Thomas, but I want to paint the path for a true massive bounce back. Yeah, I'd call it bounce back. Well, it's certainly a bounce back, but almost a breakout, a re-breakout, if you will. It's Matthew Stafford.

Quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams, a re-break bounce back. Matthew Stafford has an opportunity to go nuts this year. It's a matter of what kind of team, what kind of system, you know, over the last couple years, we have seen the Los Angeles Rams be a great otherworldly offense with Jared Goff at the helm, Todd Gurley being healthy, and their...

You know, their system has actually been a very good system for running backs, especially around the goal line, the touchdown rate for running backs. Once they get in there, they're going to run the ball in for a score. Sean McVeigh has a great system to do that. The offensive line has been capable of doing that. Whether Matthew Stafford has a great season versus a good season is entirely on the back of touchdowns. And you can argue. Which have.

plummeted in recent years for him compared to what he used to be. Well, yeah. The bounce back is talking about 2011 through 2017, where Matthew Stafford was six out of seven years in a row. He was a top 10 fantasy quarterback. This is a guy who can get it done for fantasy for sure. Now he's on a much better team, much better offense with better weapons. Maybe not the elite. Like Kenny Goliday might have been better. Obviously Calvin Johnson was better. But it was always them and nobody.

And even when it was him and Marvin Jones, they were not always healthy together. This last year, he finishes the quarterback 15 for a bad team while being injured and having pretty much no Kenny Goliday. But I circle back to the touchdowns because the way that I've projected it, and we know Cam Acres very high in my rankings, I am projecting more of the same from the Rams. But I want to paint the picture because we have to look at all angles in fantasy and say, okay, okay.

It could be more of the same as what we've seen. We've got the historic evidence for it. Or let me ask this question. When they got near the goal line, did they run the ball so much because they had Jared Goff and Todd Gurley? Like whose hands did you want to put the ball in at the five? Trust Jared Goff to make a play happen or give it to your world-class high first-round pick running back. Like...

Maybe the reason they ran in so many touchdowns is entirely because of the personnel, not the scheme. So I could see a world where now they're saying, do we want to put it in the inexperienced Cam Acres hands? Or Matthew Stafford, let him scramble around and find someone for a touchdown. If Matthew Stafford comes out and throws 35 plus touchdowns, he will be a top five quarterback because the yards will be there. You know, he's a very, very capable quarterback, and they paid...

a lot to go and get their guy. He's also still young enough to get it done. 33. Yeah, I mean, this is not like over the hill for Stafford. So with the offense, with a capable offensive coordinator, probably the best core of receiving weapons he's ever had. If the touchdowns come, he's a great late-round pick. Certainly with the best play caller he's ever been with.

Oh, yeah. I do want to, like, if you just look at career finishes, the last three years have been rough, right? 20, 29 with the injuries and 15. But I want, I do want people to remember what 2019 was like in those eight games. The eight game pace is awesome. The eight game pace was 5,300 yards and 40 touchdowns. So the eight games, the eight games that he played, he had five top six finishes at the quarterback position. Pretty much undrafted that season.

So if you picked him up late, you streamed him, you played him, you lived in a very happy place for those eight games before he went down. So I don't think he's being drafted or talked about very much. It would be a bounce back to kind of those big time years he had seasons ago. But, you know, if people have been making the compelling case for Jared Goff and fantasy off seasons for three years.

I don't really understand how Matthew Stafford, other than a complete lack of seeing it with your eyeballs, because you've never seen them in this jersey, you've never seen them with this scheme, you've never seen them with these wideouts. And so I think that that kind of ambiguity has caused him to be ignored. So I think that that's fair. I mean, it's still a scary proposition and far from a guarantee. Yeah, when I look at the late round quarterbacks, what you're...

which is, you know, where we as a show are usually drafting from. I'm wanting to find someone who can get off to a hot start who could become a, you know, a top eight quarterback of the course of the season that just takes that leap. And there are enough markers here with Stafford being given a great receiving court, great offensive play caller, and, you know, the opportunity to truly...

you know, scorch the earth. And I think they're going to let him because they knew what their hole was on offense. And it was Jared Goff. Like, nobody in the world thought Jared Goff is this great quarterback. He was just good enough to run the system. And they're like, yeah, it was good enough to get us to a Super Bowl, but we want to win one. And we've got to have a guy that can make plays on his own. Yeah, and in the red zone when you need him. It's amazing how many similarities there are to the...

Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo situations. Because both guys got their teams to a Super Bowl. Yeah. And it just wasn't enough. Couldn't finish it. You have Stafford ahead of Wience, Ryan, Burrow, Cousins. So you're putting your rankings where your mouth is, as they say. I don't know if I like that. But apparently, I am. All right. George Kettle.

49ers tight end. You brought him up as a potential bounce back. I agree with you. We've talked a lot this offseason about the value of securing an elite tight end at the position. I'm interrupting. Go for it. I want Travis Kelsey. And I'm willing to pay a first for Travis Kelsey when I do these drafts. I want Darren Waller. And I'm willing to pay like the back of the second.

Yeah. For Darren Waller. I want them bad. Like, I want to leave my draft with one of those two guys. I'm happy, especially if I can get Kittle in the second. I have drafted, or Kelsey in the second. I have drafted George Kittle in zero mock drafts, zero real drafts. So I had the opportunity. I pass him by. This is a, are you repenting? No. I'm saying that I want to be shown the error of my ways with what you're about to say, and you need to win me over here because.

I want to know if he could be better than those guys or will be, or is it foolish of me to be looking to Darren Waller over Kittle? Like, win this argument for me. Yeah, I mean, I think that's the debate. When I dug into this, the bounce back case for George Kittle, look, obviously his bounce back is not, or maybe not obviously, but it should be illustrated on the show. It's not a case of decline of performance or reduction of like involvement in the offense or a down. It's injury.

Like his people, they know he finished at three and two at the position, the preceding two years. But last year, his 17 game pace was ridiculous. It was 102 for 13, 47, and 13. Say that again. 102 catches. That's absurd. 1347 yards. That's a great wide receiver. 13 touchdowns. Okay. Well, I'm in. So that, I mean, you could kind of just hit the gavel and in the conversation with that.

But I think what it is is people look at Waller and they now see consistency over a couple of years and you look at Kittle and it was a really painful, literally, figuratively ride with George Kittle last year. He was 48 for 634 and 2. You didn't get 102, 13, 47, and 13. Now, when I look back at his game logs, I see that in the games he did not score touchdown, you know, you weren't really happy. He had a couple of, you know, tighten, 18, 15, 20.

Very not kiddle-esque or even Waller-esque. Yeah, you didn't have the consistency. And you were dealing with injuries last season, even in his return. He was playing through it until he couldn't do it again. Then he came back for the last couple games of the year. That's where you saw some yardage return even without the touchdowns, 92 yards on four catches or four targets, no, four catches for 92 and then seven for 68. And so. And he was consistent in 2019. Oh, very consistent.

Very consistent. And he, you know, you put up a big year, dealt with injuries right in the middle of it. So I think that there are two kind of headlines for the balance back for George Kittle. One, I think he's totally fair and appropriate to draft him ahead of Darren Waller. Like I don't think that you're committing a crime just because Waller had a big year last year. Like George Kittles' target share is going to be through the roof. There's 24% last year during an injury riddled season. He's still number one in yards are out per run at the tight-in position.