Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Early RB Rankings, Sleepers, Mailbag

signs that it's improving, right? Travis Kelsey's going to be on the field more. He's actually healthy coming into this year. You've got, like you said, Jeremy Macklin coming to stretch the field to make sure people aren't stacking the box. And we've seen Andy Reid with LaShawn McCoy give a running back plenty of carries. So while I do think it's a little disconcerting to, I mean, I was a Jamal Charles owner last year. It was very frustrating watching this guy go for 20 yards and then not get the ball again. It's like, what are you doing?

But I don't get scared off on that all the way. His talent is just too elite. Yeah, Jamal Charles is a top five running back next year. He's still in that category with me that you just spoke of with Bell and Lacey, where your odds of him being in that top tier are pretty well guaranteed. Even if you project him, even if you keep him at the same carry numbers, you're still giving him.

And he stays healthy. You're in the 2.32.40 range and carries, averaging 5 a carry again and catching the ball and scoring touchdowns. He has been scoring touchdowns. Even last year, he had 9 on the ground. He had more through the air. Yeah. And so I think that he is definitely a bounceback to elite candidate. He's our number three consensus-wise, which is kind of crazy with me having him at 5 and Mike at 8. But did you have something you wanted to add? Yeah, when you were talking about when Reed was in Philadelphia, so I'm just...

Just some interesting numbers to think about. Here's Lashon's carries. His rookie year, 155. That's understandable to his rookie year. Second year, 207. 2011, the big anomaly, 273 carries. That was the 17 touchdown year? Yeah, that was the Shady McCoy year. And then the year after that, 200. Now, Shady missed four games, but...

He just doesn't... Those aren't quantity numbers. Yeah, he just doesn't give those numbers. No, I mean, if you miss four games at a clip of 200, that is good carries. I mean, you can't just say... 230. 230, 240 again. I mean, he's not going to give his running back. We can all agree. He's not going to give him 276. Right, he's not getting those... 285. What did you project Jamal Charles with, carry-wise? I have him at 230 around there, 236. Yeah. Which puts him at about...

1,200 yards. I still give him 10 touchdowns on the ground and 45 catches. Yeah, I've got him at 225 carries. So these are reasonable. I mean, we're not sitting here saying, oh, he's going to get 300 carries next year because Andy Reid's going to change. No, no. He's going to get 225 carries, and he's going to be awesome. Yeah, yeah. Fair enough. So before we get to our number 4 and 5 out of our consensus, I want to ask you guys a question, is there somebody from the running back?

crop right now that you're super excited about going into i mean we have a lot of time we're going to get to see what the preseason in camp and all those things look like but who are you excited about right now that nobody else is excited about well i am or i am definitely much more excited about frank gore than

Definitely than the average person and that I think the most analysts are right now. And it's for a similar reason that I've been, you know, echoing already. I want to get some dominating... Offenses. Wide receivers. You know, I want to have some elite wide receivers, which is going to push some of my running backs down. Well, I can get Frank Gore. Right now, Frank Gore is, you know, going as the 22nd. And this is obviously way too early. Over the last week, people that are...

playing around with drafts. It's post him going to the Colts. He's still being taken as the 22nd running back off the board, which means if I spend one of my early picks on a...

top in, you know, like I was talking about gronk. If I spin that, normally you have to sacrifice a running back. You have to sacrifice a position to take a position. But from where Frank Gore is getting drafted, he is on a high power offense that clearly wants to use him as a bell cow, as a three-down back. They, they...

took him, I mean, that's the words coming out of their mouth right now. They promised him something. During hype season. I'll give you that. But they also promised him something before hype season to get him to go away from the Philadelphia Eagles. They have been talking him up for a long time. There was rumors the year prior that they wanted Frank Gore, and now they have him. So on that offense, with Andrew Luck, with the ability to put up points, I just think, what is his

floor. Am I really going to draft a guy, you know, that I can get later, get better, you know, high-end guys on my roster and other positions? And, you know, for the 22nd running back, I've actually got him finishing in my top 13 right now, and I just don't see him falling off. If you compare the guys around where he's going. Careful. I will attempt to be careful for you, Mike.

Let me show you some of the names that he's going around. He's going around Isaiah Crowell, Rashad Jennings, Andre Ellington, who I'm really Sauron, Joach Bell. I mean, the floor of those guys. You know, maybe someone that I just named finishes higher, but I could see all of them finishing in a way that hurts my fantasy team and doesn't get in my roster. And I don't see that with Frank Gore. So I really like Frank Gore from a value.

All right, so we'll see who Mike's guy is right now. I'm not going to disagree with any of that. I like Frank Gore-a-law. But the one piece to the puzzle that we do have in his situation is the fact he's going to a new team. And so the variable of just not seeing him play out in that offense and what they want to do with Boom-Haron and what they want to do with Vic Ballard coming back and what they want to do from that perspective. So that would be the only thing that would temper me a little bit is just not knowing.

And not just trusting the hype train of the offseason. But I like that take. Mike, who is on your list right now that you're kind of excited about that nobody else is? Well, some other people might be excited about him if they were in a time machine. And they could see the future. No, if they went back in time, actually. It almost pains me a little bit to say it. But I am really intrigued this year by Jonathan Stewart.

The Daily Show, he burst on the scene with two fantastic years and then was completely derailed. And then his ankles burst and his knees burst. He was derailed by injuries. He was hurt by a crowded backfield. The Carolina Panthers made a decision this year. DeAngelo Williams is gone. Jonathan Stewart is the guy. So let me get you some numbers.

From week 13 on, here's his numbers. 12 for 85, 20 for 155, 22 for 75, 24 for 122. He had a stinker to finish the year, 13 for 49. Go to the playoff games against Arizona and Seattle. Two of the best run defenses in the league. Against Arizona, 24 for 123. Against Seattle, 13 for 70. Maybe if you ran the ball a little bit more, you would have won against Seattle. But we won't get into that.

Those are great. Jonathan Stewart's talent has really never been the question. It's always been about health and opportunity. I think the opportunity has opened up. The new regime in Carolina understands that Mike Tolbert should not be taking carries away from a talented guy like Jonathan Stewart because when Mike Tolbert came back, he really was a non-factor. If you give him the opportunity to be featured, I think he's going to thrive.

let's say with our early ADP, he's the 21st running back off the board. He's going the late fourth round. That's a guy in the late fourth round who, to me, can potentially finish as an RB1. Yeah, I think that if the only thing I'd say about him, if he stays alive, yeah, you just got to keep him alive. I mean, all I keep thinking when you're saying, I'm like, oh boy, I love 20 carries, I love 22 carries, 24 carries, 24 in the playoffs. And then I'm like, wow, I need to draft his backup.

Because he has, does not have, I mean, maybe he pulls it to Marco Murray and has a healthy-ish season, but I think he has all the potential in the world. They love to run the ball. When you see carry numbers that size, you know, with Cam running as well, they love to move the offense that way. I think he's a upside play for sure. I just hope he stays healthy. Yeah, if you've got an injured reserve spot in your fantasy league.

He's really great because then, you know, when he's in, I agree when he's in, he's going to be a beast, but that really scares me. You know, we try to assume health here in the preseason, but assuming health on Jonathan Stewart is lunacy. Here's the thing. Last week, I started a Kickstarter for one of those cry of sleep chambers. For Jay Stu? For Jonathan Stewart.

And this is a gift from the fantasy community to you, as long as you promised to sleep in it every night. Are you now speaking to, Jonathan? Yes, yes, Mr. Stu. I want you to sleep in the chamber. I want you to eat plenty of vegetables. Find those Chip Kelly Power smoothies. And no skydiving, no skateboarding, no shark fighting. And then he'll just get appendicitis. Right, right. His legs will be fine, but then it'll be like...

Pops the spleen or something. Oh, the tonsils. All right. So my guy this year right now is, I think when I signed on to, when we were chatting this morning, your reaction to this was holy Arian Foster. Yeah. Because you saw him at, he's my number two on my board. So take a second to, take a second to pause. Where do you guys think he finished last year? Don't look. He was in the top 10. Okay. For sure. I'm going to go with.

Eighth, eighth is my guess. Okay. Yeah, I think without being swayed, I probably would have said 12. Okay, he's number five. He was the number five running back last year. He had 10 games of more than 20 carries. Caries, okay? And he was involved in the passing game again. Arian Foster was a workhorse when he was healthy last year. He played 13 games last year. And...

Again, he's a little bit like Jonathan Stewart where he's had. He's been banged up. He's soft tissues. You want to get in on my Kickstarter? Yeah, maybe a little bit. So we'll sit some stretch goals that there'll be one for Aaron Foster, too. Sure, sure. Cecil Shorts can be on there. We'll include Stephen Jackson from five years ago. But, yeah, the concern would be injury a little bit with Aaron Foster. A little bit? A little bit? A little bit. You're talking about a guy who, since he took over, has had two complete seasons.

Yeah. Two seasons of over 13 games. And during that time, 327 carries, 278 carries, 351 carries. Listen, this isn't about you guys. This is about my take on Arian Foster. Again, assuming health and what I've seen from that coaching staff and what they want to do with that position, you guys already dogged on Alfred Blue today. Okay, that backfield is Arian Foster's through and through. They love to run the ball. They love to give them the ball a lot, and they love the workhorse position. And he caught, he had...

A very, very good season last year in terms of catching the ball again, being involved in that role. I have him projected for a lot of touchdowns. I think he was leading my board in touchdowns on the ground. His yards per carry back up again for the past two seasons have been back up after the decline of Aryan Foster has been predicted. And he's kind of a health nut. He's a guy who takes a little different approach to keeping himself in shape. Reminds me a little of Steve Nash in the NBA world where he...

tried to, or Kobe Bryant, where he tries to do everything he can to keep himself in tip-top shape. I just think he's going to be overlooked. That's all I want to say. Yeah, I think he's going to be overlooked because he's not sexy enough because he's Aaron Foster and he's, he was, but I think he is still Aaron Foster. Yeah, I like it. He's clearly an incredibly talented runner on the field and he's got the situation. So let me ask you this, though. Let's say Houston spends a third round pick on a running back.

What do you think about the prospects for Arian Foster? How much does that scare you? It doesn't scare me at all. It doesn't scare me. That would scare me. Just because they take them, I think that'd be smart of them. Their backfield looks like it needs depth, but it wouldn't scare me from a this year production standpoint. I might draft the guy as a handcuff, but it doesn't scare me too much. So let's get back into our list here. Number four for us is a household name, a double-digit touchdown monster every single season. Double-digit.

Crotch grabber. Double, yeah. Double digit millions. And the most unfortunate man at the end of the Super Bowl, Marshawn Lynch is number four on our board. Jason, you have them the highest. Why do you have them the highest? Is it the same argument where you know what you're going to get from that position? Yeah, it is. I think that. He got paid, by the way. If I had a sound effect for like piles of money dropping, it would be.