Fantasy Football 2017 - Busts + NOT “My Guys”

My argument for my two bust, Blunt and Adams, is a perfect scenario type of situations for me. He still only had 75 receptions. He was still a wide receiver 1 or 2, only 43% of the time. That's 18th best from a consistency perspective. That's behind Taylor Gabriel, even in a perfect season. You had an unhealthy Randall Cobb that wasn't involved with the offense. Now you had Bennett, who you saw it in the preseason already.

Aaron Rogers can put the ball at a point where he can go up in high point and he scores. He's going to score some touchdowns. Even Mike admitted he's going to have some flashy games. And I keep hearing this name. Look, Aaron Rogers, he always sustains two wide receivers. And James Jones name gets brought up. Well, look, James Jones had his outlier touchdown season, 15. You know what he followed it up with? Three and then six. Okay? So it wasn't like that was consistent outside of Jordy Nelson, who, by the way, Jordan Nelson,

He had 15 touchdowns. He followed it up with an 8. I'm sorry, a 7. So it's not something that you can bank on. We have always talked about. You cannot bank on those touchdowns all of the time. Even the great Jordy Nelson goes from 15 to 7, then to 8 the year after. TDs are hard to predict. You have been it as a red zone factor. You have Randolph Cobb. And so, look, at the end of the day, I think you cannot bank on somebody with 75 receptions in an offense. Now, look.

You want to take a shot? If he repeats the touchdowns, he'll be fine. I just see so much turnover at that position, unless you're Odell-Bakom, Julio Jones, or one of the big guys. Yeah, one of the keys to fantasy football when you're in the draft portion of the season. When you're looking at season-long predictions and trying to get the order in the rankings and establish all of that, is that when it comes to predicting success, volume.

is more important than touchdowns usually at just projections. And so, you know, you're right in the sense that Devante Adams does not have the volume. He is not going to be that 90-plus reception guy. So the touchdowns will have to come to capitalize on his draft spot. Now, Aaron Rogers is the quarterback. So it's tough. I'm like, I'm amazed. Both of you took an Aaron Rogers option and said that they're going to bust because.

That's weighty. I mean, he can throw 40 touchdowns easy. In fact, I think of the Jordy Nelson era while he's had a full season with Jordy, he's averaged 40 touchdowns, which is unbelievable. So it's risky, but the touchdowns, I think the biggest guy that could make both of you right is Randall Cobb certainly could go back up on the touchdown. So I'm going to go with my next ageist comment. Yeah, you're basically, you don't like anybody over the age of,

22 playing in the NFL. Yes, 22 is my cutoff. My dynasty team is all rookies. No, my guy is someone that Andy earlier in the offseason you were starting to really get high on. The reports have been great about him from camp. But I'm not buying in to Adrian Peterson. I know if you listen to the My Guy episode, look, one of my guys was.

Mark Ingram. I mean, so obviously if I think Mark Ingram is going to succeed, I think that Adrian Peterson is probably overdrafted, considering he's going well ahead of Mark Ingram. Adrian Peterson right now is being drafted as a running back too. Similar to Brandon Marshall, he is an older guy who had a bad season, is changing teams, and now is supposed to be totally okay. And you might say, well, Jason, he didn't have a bad season. He got injured.

And I would say, kind of. I mean, yes, yes, he got injured. You're right. And yes, the sample size, I will grant you. It is extremely small. Like 30 carries, isn't it? He had 20 carries in game one, 19 carries in game one for 31 yards against the vaunted Tennessee Titan run defense last year. And then he followed that up. The next game, he had 12 carries. Now that last carry, let's say that doesn't count, he got injured. 11 carries. He had 19 yards against Green Bay's vaunted run defense last year. He was not good.

Then he tore his moniscus, he tore his meniscus and was quickly able to recover. And if you don't remember, he actually was back from that injury last year and played in week 15, their 14th game, where he got six carries before having knee and groin injuries reoccur. And now, now I realize Hall of Fame player, incredible, good offense, all of these good things.

But he is a year older, and he is much older than Brandon Marshall is when you talk positionally. Positionally, you know, 30 is usually that age at running back that you tend to fall off. And now he's going to be 32 years old. He's coming off an injury, and you say, well, look how good he did coming off of his ACL injury back in the day. Sure. So did Jamal Charles. When Jamal Charles had an ACL injury, the first time, man alive did he come back on fire? He was great.

But when he got injured later in his career, when he was a little bit older, he lost a step. And hopefully this weekend, when we finally see him back on the field in preseason, Jamal Charles is great. And, you know, maybe Adrian Peterson is going to be great. But what I see is this. I see that it's rare for an older player who loses a step to then come back at an old age and regain it all.

That's pretty much my crux. I think he's a high. I think he's a high risk for injury to reoccur. He's no longer the focal point of the offense. He's always been a guy who has benefited from carries better at the end of games than at the beginning because he wears a defense down type of runner. And that's probably not going to happen. Is his touchdown opportunity going to be up and high because of Drew Brees? Sure. But I think injuries and where he's being drafted, he's being drafted ahead of a bunch of starters.

Mike, do you want me to go? No, you go ahead and go. Here's all I want to say about that. I wanted to listen to your argument on the bust of Adrian Peterson. And I wanted to say this. I wanted to say, look, Jay, you know, I moved him down, which I did like a week ago. You know, we talked about Mark Ingram. Alvin Cameras looked good. A lot of running backs in the mix there. I wanted to say, you know what? I really agree with the arguments you're making. But I don't like your arguments. I don't like all of them. Some of them make sense to me. But I'm not erasing 2,381.

Adrian Peterson carries in his career because of 37 last year. I'm not saying a guy's lost a step because of 37 carries. We want to use the vaunted word. That was the bad offensive line in Minnesota, right? And you give a guy 37 carries and you erase a career of production at 4.9 to carry. I get some of the arguments. Some of the ones you made sense. But we've also talked a lot about on the last show, all the arguments you made for Mark Ingram, you still have to look at those and say,

Maybe the ceiling isn't there for Adrian Peterson like it has been over the last 10 years of his career. But he's never played a full season without double-digit touchdowns. You just talked about how productive the Saints were at the running back position. So bust only due to injury. That's the only way I think you get pure bust out of Adrian Peterson. And I want to hear what Mike says. I have no idea what side Mike's going on. But just to retort, if I have not been clear enough, because I think based on what you're saying, I wasn't.

I see Adrian Peterson as a very high injury risk. Inside injury sees him as an elevated injury risk. He came back from the knee issue last year and hurt his groin and his knee. That's my biggest issue is actually the injury risk for being drafted as a running back two. Yeah. Yeah. And we'll say this. All that might go. If Ingram or Peterson are injured or something happens, what a backfield to own? There was a...

a running back who he's not in the Hall of Fame yet, but I'm going to go out in the limb and declare that this running back will get into the Hall of Fame. He was coming off of eight straight years of a thousand plus rushing yards. And then he moved teams and everyone was very, very excited for this player. His name is Stephen Jackson. He went to the Falcons and he was older, changed teams, and his career.

was done it completely fell apart and this i'm just saying this reminds me very much it's a pretty good comparison peterson is done where huge career it's going to be in the hall of fame but the career is he's he's on the last fumes of of his professional it's funny because before you said stephen jackson i thought

Really? You think Matt Forte is going to get into the Hall of Fame? I wasn't going to say Forte. No, I know. But my point is he was another guy who had a prolific, long, great career, changes teams at an old age and had injury problems. What do you expect from Adrian Peterson is the problem? I mean, that's the question, too. I mean, you bring up Stephen Jackson. His career, it wasn't a case of Arian Foster switching teams. He played two seasons in Atlanta. He scored six touchdowns each of his seasons. Matt Forte was productive in New York. You're glossing over the yardage.

No, I'm not. No, no. He was 500 and he was 700. I know what it was. I'm just saying if you got that from Adrian Peterson this year, six touchdowns and 700 yards. You'd be so disappointed for the fact that he has drafted right now as an RB2. Yeah, it would. That's my point. If you got 500 yards. Well, that's within the realm of possibility for sure. Yeah. So I'm. I hope not, but it is definitely possible. I am likely.

staying away from Adrian Peterson. Yeah, it's an interesting comparison. It's a good debate because plenty of people out there obviously love them disagree with us wholeheartedly. There's a lot to gain and lose. If there's a guy with a chip on a shoulder who wants to prove us wrong. The problem with doubting it is it's Adrian Peterson. You don't want to doubt Adrian Peterson. Yeah. But at some point, his body will be done. Just so you know, I have Adrian Peterson. Age never loses. Father time is undefeated right now.

Frank Gore is trying to change that, but we'll see. Yeah. Even Fred Jackson couldn't do that. I have Adrian Peterson down for 710 rushing yards and 7.5 touchdowns right now. Where does that put him on your ranking? He is running back. Because that's reasonable. In a half point PPR, it puts him 32. And he's being drafted. Where? 22, I think, as an RB2. All right. Compelling arguments. Mike, close us out on the bus, baby. We'll get into some mailbag today. Let's answer some listener questions from the folklore. But first.

But first for me, to shut it down. He's bringing more hate. All right. DeAndre Hopkins, I am sorry to tell you, Foot Clan, fantasy football players, I don't understand why people think that Tom Savage or Deshawn Watson is the solution. It rectifies everything for DeAndre Hopkins, incredible wide receiver, incredible talent being drafted as the 14th.

wide receiver in PPR. How did he finish last year? Do you know? I don't have it right in front of you, but I believe it was somewhere in the 30s. Jason, you can block the exact number. But here's the problem with DeAndre Hopkins. 14th wide receiver. Last year, he was a wide receiver won 12.5% of his games. Last year, he was a wide receiver one or two in 37.5% of his games, which that's not the worst. Here's the worst.

56% of the time he was a wide receiver 4 or worse. That's atrocious. And you had to play DeAndre Hopkins every single week. Did you have the intestinal fortitude to bench DeAndre Hopkins? No way. There's no way you did. He finished last year as the wide receiver 36. Thank you. Wide receiver 36. You know what this is? This situation. This is when you have to take your kid.

to the dentist because you know it's better. It's best for them, but the whole experience is painful because I love DeAndre Hopkins. Like you compare, for some reason, him and Alan Robinson, they come to my mind together because of their situation. I think DeAndre Hopkins is a better receiver than Alan Robinson by far. I think he's amazing. But what's best for fantasy owners is to listen to Mike, and I hate it. Here's the thing. Last year, Kenny Britt on the Cleveland, or I'm sorry, not on the Browns, on the ramps.

Jared Goff. It was a wide receiver one or two. It's a very, very similar, no, very similar percentage. And he busted less than Hopkins. You on a week to week basis, you would have been better off playing Kenny Britt with Case Keenham, with Jared Goff throwing in the ball. Now, it's, it should be better. I will give you this. It should be better than last year because Brock Osweiler, my goodness.

The worst. The worst. So Tom Savage, Deshaun Watts. At least there is a new hope, right? We're going Star Wars here. There's a hope. You realize that Kenny Britt might have been this close. And you're talking a millimeter from going golf to Osweiler? No. That's not something you want to hear, especially if you've just consumed food. Yeah. But here's the deal. It's just it's, I think it'll be better for Hopkins. But.

Why did he receive a 14? No, that's a problem. I wish you would have told me he's being drafted at 20. Yeah. At 20, I'm palatable. I'm cozy. But I think there is... Let me ask Jason a question on it. Is there upside for DeAndre Hopkins? No. Gosh, dang it. Well, here's the thing. If you're in a PPR league, there's a little bit more hope, right? Because he will... Because his mom wrote me a letter and asked what the chances are that her son could return to glory. Yeah, the problem is, so last year no one had...