AFC West Breakdown + Hopkins, Jacobs, and Saquon - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/18

On today's show, we're breaking down the AFC West, a lot of very fantasy relevant players in this division. Where are we going to be drafting those Kansas City Chiefs? We're talking about a bunch of news, DeAndre Hopkins, Evan Engram, and more. Make sure you subscribe to this channel. Leave us a comment about your favorite AFC West team and enjoy. In the City of Angels, something monstrous lurks beyond the offseason. Can't believe summer's almost over. Man, this is going to be the best NFL season ever. I'm gonna live forever. This summer. What? Brace yourselves for an event of epic proportions. Something so colossal, so unthinkable. Welcome in. The show, Miss It. Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in.

That was a different frequency. Different pitch. You excited? I mean, yeah, no, we're good. It's higher than normal. I didn't notice. I thought I was farther away from the microphone. We're getting pretty close here, boys, to football being real. Does that mean that my pitch will continue to increase? Yes. So as we get closer and closer. It's like puberty or something? It's just going to go higher and higher. Reversely. Right. This will be a helium situation. Okay. Welcome into the show, Tuesday, July 18th, the fantasy footballers, excited to be back with you. And we are diving back into the divisional breakdowns, a very exciting AFC West edition today. We also have big news to talk about. We are recording this episode almost in conjunction with the Monday franchise player deadline. And so if breaking news happens, I've got my ear to the ground.

His ears on the literal ground. Yes. And if Saquan or Jacobs were to reach an agreement, if I get any vibrations, you'll let us know. I will. I'll jump in here. I'm going to let you know right now that you're not going to get any vibrations, Mike. No vibration. No, no. No good vibrations. This will only be sad news for running backs. The running backs will be playing on franchise tags and Evan Ingraham. Yeah. Yeah, we'll get there. Sorry, a little early here. We do have some big news. We'd like to invite everybody out there to the one and only live event for the fantasy footballers this year. I think we need mouth trumpets. Thank you. Well done. The Megalos show. It's just disturbing at this point. I don't know what it is.

But I don't think of a shark. We are live in Los Angeles, August 26th. You can learn more about how you can come. Join us. Ballerslive.com. Get tickets. Presented by Underdog Fantasy. But this is, you know, we've been doing live events since 19, 2019? I think maybe 18. 18, 19. When was the big tour, Bruxie? One of those. Oh, thank you. Thank you. It blends together. But this is the first time we've been at a venue this large. It'll be a thousand seats at the palace in L.A. It will be right before the season begins. We have a lot planned. So we would love to have you join us. It is always a great time in person with the Foot Clan, our one and only, ballerslive.com. So hopefully you can make it out. You can find us.

and more information about the Megalus show and everything we're doing here on Twitter at the FFBallers. The communities that join thefoot.com, the website's the fantasy footballers.com. Let's get into that news. News and notes from around the league. Well, DeAndre Hopkins has signed a two-year $26 million contract with Ryan Tannahill and the Tennessee Titans. He turned 31 years old in June, and we've got him ranked. He's on the website in our rankings, and he's on the ultimate draft kit. This, I think there was simultaneous, like, okay, we got some news on Hopkins. Mm-hmm. You can still play. I mean, great player. But a lot of excitement for Traylon Berks and Chigakon Quo, and both of those balloons, a little bit of error was let out of each of them. Certainly. Yeah, I mean, the excitement was twofold, right?

Primarily, the excitement was they get the whole pie to themselves. Trelin Berks and Chica Conquo were the two most talented receiving options for the Titans. And that's gone now. They are not the best. Like Traylon Burks and Chig, they aren't as good as DeAndre Hopkins. So Hopkins comes in and will be the number one. He will demand the most targets. He will get the most targets. And that really caps the upside case for Traylon Burks. But there is the talent aspect as well where, you know, both of those players showed flashes. And we've seen plenty of players be good for fantasy as a wide receiver too. This is just unfortunate because it's a running offense that you don't expect to throw a ton. I would feel better about that situation if several bullet points were fulfilled. One.

They threw the ball more. They threw the ball of the third least of any team in football last year. They threw the ball literally 20 times less per game than Tampa did, who was number one. That's a concern. Number two, if he'd done it before, if we had seen a big touchdown season from Ceylon Burks or a longer sample size, that would give me more confidence. It wouldn't be, it would be looking at it more like a, well, maybe you can be a T. Higgins or he can be one of those complimentary guys. But it concerns me in an offense where you know is Derek Henry.

You know it's play action pass, and you know that Hopkins is vastly superior to Trelandberg. So when I look at both of those guys, and I'm the biggest Chigacomco fan in the world, I love the talent and the athleticism. I think I'm now the lowest in our rankings on it because both of those players, in my opinion, Traillenberg's Chigacomco, if they do not score a touchdown, it is a bad week for fantasy for both of them. That's what I think the outcome is going to be, whereas Hopkins, his volume will be more assured. But we don't have them super high. Jason's got them the highest at 21 right now. Yeah, I mean, a wide receiver too. I have Trelland Berks also the highest and that's only wide receiver 37. So obviously this isn't a huge upside case for really either of them with this offense. I think this is obviously very helpful for Ryan Tannehill and for. Yeah.

The Titans, I mean, you guys, we already did that division and you guys both picked the Titans to win the division. This has to be a massive help because there's questions. Can Traylon Burks be a wide receiver one for an NFL team? We haven't seen it yet. We think maybe he can. Well, he can be a wide receiver too. You know, it's one of those things when you bring a guy like Hopkins in, the rest of your depth chart, it looks really good now. Yeah, I mean, one injury was the problem too. Like if Berks went down, what do you have? If Hopkins goes down, now you have Burks.

There's upside in that respect because he's 31 years old. Hopkins is. He's been hurt like every season. So there is, I'm not saying don't draft burks. It's just far from an assured outcome at this point. He was somebody that we were focusing on as a sleeper in the ultimate draft kit. And, you know, it is what it is. The team needed it. And it is good for Tanahill. You talk about two quarterback super flex leagues. Ryan Tanahill in a productive offense in a division that's winnable, don't forget to look his way at the end of those drafts. Totally agree. And ironically, adding this wide receiver to a team, which is usually great for future dynasty quarterback prospects, I could see this being pretty bad for Banana Ramah. Just because if the Titans win and Ryan Tanahill has a good season. Go ahead.

Will Levis, by the way. Yeah, well, sure. I mean, we could call him by his given name. He's being. He's being beat out by Malik Willis. I was going to say, I've read that. I don't know where the blurb came from. So I was going to ask if you guys had heard any of that. I saw the same thing. That in camp right now, Malik Willis was outperforming. I guess there was a USA Today blurb on July 9th that said Malik Willis is currently outplaying Will Levis, which. And don't forget. Holy crap. If that's true. Malik Willis could not outperform Joshua Dobbs last year. There's a chance that Willis has improved drastically as well, but this is yikes. I think I'm the only person in the world that actually thinks Ryan Tannhill is like a good quarterback. No, no, not at all. He's good. The efficiency and the numbers have gone down. I mean, he keeps winning football games. He's very Joe Flacco at his best. I think if you put Ryan Tannahill on the 49ers.

He would be awesome. Yeah, but Nick Mullins was pretty awesome on the 49ers too. Yeah, I'm just saying he would be better than the other guys they've had. Completely agree. Are you a big Jimmy G fan? Nope. Okay. Yeah, I mean, it's, I agree with you. Tanna Hill can get the job done if the offense has the pieces. Last year they didn't. But, you know, Hopkins is going to help. Make them a winner. It will be interesting for Hopkins. Like, he looked like he still had it. last year. So that's the upside for Hopkins. As soon as he came back. Yeah, give me the numbers because it was nine games last season for Hopkins and he had almost 1,000 yards. Yeah, I mean, his target share was out of control after what seemed like a down year before that. J.J. Zacharisen, this status is credited to him. He said since 2011, the only wide outs passed their 10th year in the league to post a wide receiver 2 or better season.

Larry Fitzgerald, Julian Edelman, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and Anquan Bolden. So, like, historically, Hopkins was already going to be up against it, staying with the Arizona Cardinals as, you know, in a more pass-friendly offense, at least it was with Cliff, and getting the huge targets here. Now it goes to a lower pie, but the question will be, does he get back to the DeAndre Hopkins 30% targets here? Because if he is there, he's fine. He'll show up. He'll be a wide receiver too. If that comes down to like 26%, then, which is, that's where I kind of happen. I don't have him skyrocketing back up to being the only show in town. So he's, he is an interesting pick and I think a high risk with a decent amount of ceiling built in there, but a risky pick. A 30% target sharing that offense would be 7.8 targets a game. From the numbers last year?

from the numbers last year. I mean, but that's been kind of their situation. And that's not too exciting. And I have them at 28, Mike at 29. Definitely some better situations you could have gone to. Now, if you spent the off-season drafting Traylon Burks early in baseball, you're bummed down. But if you spent the off-season drafting Joe Mixing in baseball, you're excited because he agreed to a restructure. Yep. He's going to stay in Cincinnati. This is what we, I mean, it was trending this direction. We didn't see a path for this not to happen because they didn't have the requisite pieces that they would have needed to make it happen for him to depart. But they still. They took a pay. He took a pay. Like when you're telling a guy, hey, we don't want to pay you this much money. They still have to come back and agree that they will pay or they will play for less than you already told them you're going to play for. So it's a big deal to restructure because he'll be there. He was leveraged.

Oh, yeah, I'm sure he was. He took a pretty substantial pay cut, you know, about $4.6 million for two pay cut in 2024 as part of the New Deal as well. Yeah, that's what I was going to bring up. It's not just like now we know he's playing this season. You can draft him. confidently. I love this. You've had a great value on him. And honestly, he will be a good value come draft season because the ADP has been so well established as a low ADP for him that it will, when we're when we're at draft season, it's just going to be behind the times a little bit. And it'll be rising from now until then. But he'll be a good value. Oh, I love him.

But next year, so in Dynasty leagues, it seems like he will be playing for the Bengals for two years now with what he did financially. And I know it was a down year for him from a yards per carry standpoint last season, didn't score a ton of touchdowns. But the first 10 weeks, before he got hurt last year, Joe Mixin was still on pace for 70 receptions. Samajai Rine is gone. We've talked about the trust that we, I mean, you got Chase Brown, right? And then you've got Trayvian Williams. So Joe Mixen is a guarantee for volume. Yes, he is. Another interesting piece of news. Evan Ingram right before the deadline, three-year $42.5 million contract. We did it. We did it, everybody. Congratulations, Mike. That's pretty big for you. I feel great about it. Fourth round pick for you in that last draft. It was funny. I took Mixin in that draft. I took Ingram for you in that draft. Both got good news. But Ingram under a contract.

Mike's got him the highest at tight end six. So there you go. He's been drafted at tight end eight. Plenty of upside. He had stretches last year that were weak winning performances. And then we don't know, but we do know. Josh Jacobs, Saquan Barkley, unlikely to get any sort of deal before the tag deadline hits at 1 p.m. today, which as of this moment, it's about 30 minutes away. So by the end of the show, we'll note definitively, Josh Jacobs is likely to hold that at training camp. Saquan potentially have availability in Week 1 against Dallas in question. At this point, hearing that from ESPN, is Saquan going to get a downgrade in your rankings? He'll certainly get an upgrade in the risk rating because you need to know that there's a chance he could miss that game. Obviously, when you're at the place where Saquan's going and maybe you're looking at two great options, you're saying, okay, do I want Seekwan or do I want?

Bijon or do I want Nick Chob? Well, if you think there's a good legitimate chance at that point when you're making a draft that Saquan's threatened to miss the opening week of the season, yeah, I would rather have the other guy, so it would move the needle. Let me throw some more names out there to both of you, and you guys just let me know where the line is. Joe Mixon, aforementioned. No, I would stick with Stakely. I'd still go Barclay. Jonathan Taylor. I would stick with Saquan. Oh, does Taylor or Barclay? I'll go Barclay, yeah. Breece Hall. Sequin. Yeah. Naji. Sequin. Barclay, yeah. Pollard. I have Pollard ranked higher anyways. And Pollard has already, he signed his franchise. So, like, he's good to go. We would prefer for the man to get a long-term extension. Seems unlikely at this point, but he's already going to be playing. One more for Jason because he has, Sequin very highly ranked. And you're the lowest on Derek Henry. With this news, change your Derek Henry. Flip.

I don't think so. I think I would keep Saquan there. I think on a per game basis, I would still take the one game absence and like Saquan a ton. The only guys, it's Bejohn and Nick Chub, Josh Jacobs. Those three guys, I think it might flip the needle. And obviously, we've got to wait and see what Jacobs does because maybe this is infectious. And he's like, well, I'm going to miss week one if I'm not on a fridge. Are these two guys going to go? Oh, maybe they go fro, yo. Yeah, like just go bro down, do some kind of, you know, running backs who are on the franchise tag vacation. Yeah, they go on surfing. Oh, surfing? For sure. They're both huge surf dudes. Are gigantic quads kind of a thing for surfing? They can't hurt. They squat down there and you can't get them off that board. Josh Jacobs is 25, Sequin's 26.

Both of them won't have a birthday until after this season. And so you've got two really young players, very talented, still in their prime windows. And the franchise tags $10.1 million for running backs. That's what Tony Pollard is going to play on. He's not missing camp. He's going to be there. But when you think about the investment that you have to make to lock up, like it probably costs you $12 million. Like Josh Jacobs would cost you $12 million a year for like two or three years to avoid this situation. And they're still. As of this moment, not doing it. But that's the perfect off-season script for Josh Jacobs. Last year, he was playing in the Hall of Fame game. So if you're playing in the Hall of Fame game, you could probably miss some camp and still be good. We'll find out. Maybe we'll get some breaking news. Maybe. Al Brooks, let us know. And then we had some minor injury news. Tyquan Thornton dealing with soft tissue issue. I want it to be said, Devante Parker is a sleeper to me.

because you don't have Jacoby Myers who was the tried and true option there. Parker has always been impressive on the big catches that touchdowns. Thornton dealing with a soft tissue issue and Hopkins didn't sign there, which is one of the things depressing his value. So I just don't want his name to be forgotten. I think that there's a decent chance, it's not guaranteed, that he's their best receiver this year. And that's got to be worth something in a draft. Sure. I don't hate it. I don't mind being out on there by myself. No, no. You're like the Taekwon Thornton was already.

up against it. He was, you know, he was a pretty highly drafted player. Kyle was the, was Thornton a second rounder? Okay, he was a second rounder. But he, you know, historically you can look at players who have, have hit a, like just a, a threshold of like a yards per route run or target per route run that you have a pretty. strong correlation or hit rate that these players have to hit this threshold, and then you see their career kind of blossom. Thornton did not. His utilization was all gadgetry. It was all like a big play here or utilization in a screen. So I never saw him get out there and be like an alpha type of. But I'm saying that's part of the issue is if you come out here as a rookie and you're used that way, the team might be just telling the public, this is how we see this player. He can help us on a football field, but.

for fantasy football, the odds are really stacked against him. All right, quick break, and we'll get into the divisional breakdown. Did you have anything to add there with Taekwon, Jason? I know you've talked about him a little bit. Juju is in New England as well. I had some hopes for Thornton. I've got him. a decent exposure rate on my best ball teams. I'm really sad to see the soft tissue issue for a guy that's a speedster because those things can linger. You remember, he was a 4-28 player. And I think that the gadgetry that was, you know, the way he was used last year, you got Matt Patricia trying to run an offense. It's just not going into a year with Bill O'Brien, I was kind of hopeful that.

some of the athleticism and features that he has, you know, they could show up this year. But, yeah, he's a, he's a slender man. Yes. 185, 62, but very fast. Let's get divisional. Well, I'm excited to talk about the AFC West today with you fine gentlemen. I can't wait. The Kansas City Chiefs defending champions. Can't wait to shock you guys with my divisional pick at the end. Oh, boy. Stay tuned, everybody. Yeah, nice tease. Stay tuned. Looking at offseason changes between 2022 and 2023, how these offenses could function, and then we will. We'll predict who's going to win. Stay tuned. Kansas City last year was 14 and 3. The Chargers were 10 and 7. Raiders were 6 and 11, Broncos 5 and 12. And, you know, this division is very, very interesting.

It is littered with fantasy football options throughout, starting with obviously the Chiefs. They have a 11 and a half win total this year. It was 11 last year. So, I mean, they are on the top of the mountain. Mahomes, Kelsey. You could stop after Mahomes. Really? Oh, really? Why do I have to stop after Mahomes? That's really disrespectful. No, no, no. I'm saying they're on top of the world. Oh. They have Mahomes. That's good enough. You can do anything else on that roster and they will be one of the best teams in the NFL. He's just a freak of nature. Yeah, I mean, it was funny because you had made that comment about Aaron Rogers and losing Devante and look what Mahomes did. But we do forget, or maybe didn't mention, like Kelsey is the linchpin of that offense in a lot of ways. So does help. It does help him to have Travis Kelsey. But those are your two.

absolute fantasy stalwarts heading into the season. Andy Reed is the magic that unlocks the creativity, the goal line passing, which you love to see. I mean, if you are, the running back room in that situation in Kansas City is very unpredictable. There's not going to be maybe as much of a, I guess. excitement around one specific guy in that backfield. But everybody's going to have Mahomes on those rosters and Kelsey. And the fact they throw the ball around the end zone so much that they're the highest scoring team in all of football. It just brings a lot of excitement. They got rid of Juju. I don't think any of us say, look at that and go, Mahomes is in trouble. And then they brought in Richie James, who was very, very productive in New York last year. And they drafted Rashi Rice. So.

Let's break it down a little bit. Mahomes set a record last year, 15 weeks is the quarterback one as a quarterback one, not the. It's very tough because he's being drafted essentially at the beginning of the second round. I think that's, it's too rich for me for an ADP of I think I can make up some ground at the quarterback position and bypass him there. Do you guys... Are you in on the early second round or? It doesn't hurt you. Okay. So you're okay with it. I'm not going to do it because I, like you said, you know, like if you're choosing Allen and Hertz, like if you like those three in the same category and Mahomes is going ahead of them, I'm not going to do it. But I genuinely think you aren't going to get burned by it. Like I don't think your potential of being burned by drafting any of those three early is there. I really don't.

I don't think that there's an opportunity to be. Like last year, Herbert burned you, right? Is there a world where Burrow could burn you? Maybe. I just don't think that the homes can burn you. But the burn comes in the fact that those, the big three of last year were so far ahead. Like the rest of the quarterback scoring was down so far. And you saw it. I mean, I think we highlighted some Warren Sharp stats about just the, just offense in general was down. If that. has a positive regression and more quarterbacks are and more offenses are healthy and functional. And those three guys aren't, you know, points and points and points ahead of the QB4. That's how you get burned. It's not that those three guys are going to be fantastic, but are they that much better? I think it's kind of the Jason's Travis Kelsey argument, too. Right. No, it is actually very, very similar to that. And I think if I could.

meet you guys in the middle of what you're both saying, because I think you're both right that getting Mahomes in the second round is not going to burn you. It's not going to crush your team and cripple it. But it's also not the optimal way to build a lineup should a Herbert, a Lamar Jackson, a Justin Fields, or even worse, all three of them leap up into elite. production this year. And now all of a sudden, while there's rosters that they drafted one of those guys and they got a second round running back, or second round wide receiver. So Patrick Mahomes, you can still win with them, obviously. He's Patrick Freaking Mahomes. But your lineup wasn't built as optimally as someone who got someone in the fifth round that leveled up. You're playing a different game, though. When you do that strategy, you're playing a scratchers. Because just because there was a gap last year between them and the other ones, and maybe that goes away.

well who is it you just name three names what if it's one of the three you've got to identify it so that is the game that you're having to play later could you thread the needle and be perfectly right yeah but with my homes you won't have a bust in fact he threw 41 touchdowns less here he could throw 50 because he's done it before so like he can actually have an ascending year not just um you know a regression year 50 Had the 26 missed three games, then 38, 37, 41. I just want to make the bull case for him. And the fact that you don't have to do the gamble. Like you put us through that mock draft the other day, and we didn't have to think about quarterback the rest of the draft. So that is an advantage sometimes, being able to focus on, you know, there's a lot of inputs in your draft. And if trying to figure out when you're going to get the one guy, you might be taking the, you know, taking the shot on the scratches on.