The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs: Part 2 + Jason’s Promises - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/3

penalty per missed game, or should we leave it as it's been? I think you leave it as is for consistency, because we're trying to find out the truth when someone is on the field. I mean, availability is an ability, you know, as the coaching saying goes. So maybe there's a way to, you know, factor that in. But I think that would be a different way to look at how a player performed.

feel like it should be added in? I'm on the fence. I've gone back and forth. Producers, what do you guys think way in here? I think we need it the way it is, but then also we could maybe have a separate number to see, like what their rank would be if you were to count injuries or something. That's too much. I don't like it. I don't like it. Kyle, what do you got? They need to be penalized. Oh, man. Kyle's so angry. He's just a real mean. If, Fook, Clan, if you, you know, Kyle's new to being on the show if you're not aware of.

personality-wise, one of the meanest spirit of people. Just hate in his heart. So hateful. Yeah. That's Kyle. And the writers know that because he's been the editor and he's just iron fist. Well, thank you guys for weighing in. I appreciate that. There are definitely people listening to this show who now believe that that is the truth. Look, he's the most hateful and Brooks is the richest man on the planet. These are just truths we can't. We can't. We're a real extreme show. Thank you, computer.

So wide receiver 11 on the season, Hunter Renfro coming in, a consistency rank of nine. He was much better in the second half where he was on the dot, the consistent wide receiver number nine, number 18 over the first half. Now he certainly had some correlation of once Darren Waller was missing time, Hunter Renfro became the go-to guy. You also had the Henry Ruggs situation where he was removed from the team.

But if you look at what he did, only 6% of his games were great. But, I mean, that's not, when you're playing Hunter Renfro, that's not really what your goal is, a great game. You're not hoping for the, you don't, you don't slot him in as your wide receiver too. And you're like, yep, that's the guy. That's the nitro that my fantasy team needs. But you know that he's going to help you. 53% of the time he was a good game. Only 18% of his games. He busted. His splits between top and bottom defenses are,

are fine, nothing egregious there. His home road splits. He's slightly better on the road, maybe due to an uptick in passing. But, I mean, he was, once week nine hit, he was great for your fantasy team. I think that the truth that fantasy managers need to get to the bottom of for next year is, was this?

Yes. Due to being without Darren Waller. Is that the reason why, you know, going into next year, we're going to presume Waller is healthy and active. And I also assume they will bring in another wide receiver, right? They lost Henry Ruggs. They found out through enough time that Brian Edwards can't play football. And so they need to bring in another wide receiver. And so.

The question will be going into drafts next year was just a mirage created by Darren Waller's absence. And the answer is that while he did have a higher points per game in the games without Waller than he did with Waller this season slightly, his breakout, you brought it up. It was in week nine. It was when that was basically when Ruggs was gone over there by week time. From...

Darren Waller wasn't out until week 13. So you had a stretch where Renfro really caught the most fire of the season. That was when Waller was still there. So I believe next year coming into the season, I mean, it'll be.

different if they go and make a massive change at wide receiver, a big splashy acquisition. I don't know that really there's any. Could be Zay Jones, who they had Zay Jones on a one year and him also in the second half, not nearly as much as Renfro, but he started to really turn things on and become the go-to wide receiver two in the system. You have all new pieces around in management, new head coach, new GM.

Derek Carr is in the final year of his contracts where he will be turning 31. He's going to make, you know, about $20 million. He could also be cut for zero dead cap. Like, I don't, I'm not going to project that that will be the move. I think that even the new, with the new management and everything coming in and taking over, you'll go one year.

with Carr and then find a replacement quarterback, but just throwing it out there in the ether for, like, dynasty situation. If you're, I'm going after Hunter Renfro, Derek Carr is a variable that may or may not be there. I agree with that. Looking more redraft focus, though, I think Hunter Renfro has a really good season. Mike, who, when I say, who's the best slot-wide receiver over the last decade? Who are the first guys that coming in mind? Like, the last 10?

years or so. I mean, you think of the like the Brady slot water. Exactly. You think of Wes Welker. Yeah. You think of Julian Edelman. And who's the new head coach? McDaniels. The Las Vegas Raiders, it's McDaniels coming in. So the breakout that we saw from, uh, from Renfro.

Combined with the system that really has been productive for the slot wide receiver and his talent, I think I'm going to be into Renfro next year because he's not going to be someone that, you know, he's not going to be drafted like he was the wide receiver 11. No, he will not. He'll be, he'll be interesting to see his ADP. He was just to, you know.

illustrate how great he was. The second player in NFL history with an 80 plus percent catch rate on 100 or more targets. He joined Michael Thomas into that statistic. He was fantastic. His 80 people will be, you know, very interesting to watch. The next wide receivers, wide receiver 12 and 13, it's the boys from Seattle, D.K. Metcalfe, Tyler Lockett, they ran.

I mean, it is outrageous the crossfade that these two put together for my audio nerds out there. But the first half, I mean, you had the first two games, Tyler Lockett was great. But then it was DK Metcalf for that first half. Then the buy week hits. And then it was Tyler Lockett. You have the first half, DK Metcalf was the wide receiver three inconsistency, the second half wide receiver 41.

Lockett, first half, 33, second half, 12. Lockett did have a higher percentage of his games as great. But Lockett also had more bus games at 38% compared to 24. What do you make of these two? And how do we look at the future of, you know, D.K. Metcalf, who this is now, this is two years in a row. So it's pretty easy this year to go, well, Russell Wilson had the thumb problem.

You know, his deep ball looked off track. He kind of maybe got it going towards the end of it. But also during that stretch, Tyler Lockett over the second half was still performing with a busted Russell Wilson. And D.K. has now done this two years in a row where he got off to a really hot start and then fades over the second half of the season. Was that hard to say? Busted Russell Wilson.

That was really... Did I get it out? You nailed it. But it was really impressive to me. I'm very articulate. Busted Russell Wilson. Yeah, I mean, so that's the question, right? What is the truth of these guys? Well, we know what the truth is with Tyler Lockett. We've seen it long enough. He's awesome. He is great. He is a great real world wide receiver. And he is inconsistent for fantasy. He'll have his games where he ends up being the dude in these games where he's not. So the question with Metcalf is, look, the first half of the year, he was

It was unbelievable. Then the injury came to Russell Wilson. Russ sucked. D.K. Metcalf sucked. Is that the truth? Or if you really look, you're talking about the crossfade between Metcalfe and Lockett. If you really look at the games, like the first two weeks when Russ was healthy.

Lockett was unbelievable. The wide receiver six, the wide receiver two, Metcalf not as much. Right. Like they really only had one single week, week eight, where both guys were really good for fantasy. And I think that that was against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Right. I think that's more of the truth. I think the truth is that both of these guys are great wide receivers. Russ is going to be better next year because he is not going to presumably have a broken hand for half of it. Is he a Seahawk?

Russell Wilson will be a Seahawk, yes. I think Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalfe, Tyler Lockett, those guys will be the same situation going into next year's draft. I'm going to take whoever the bigger discount is, which will be Tyler Lockett. That's what I was going to ask. So this year's ADP, DK was the wide receiver 5 going in the second round. Meanwhile, Lockett was in the fifth round as the wide receiver 20. It's not that D.K. Metcalfe was a...

catastrophic bust on that draft A value going from the wide receiver 5 but finishing his 12 like that's not terrible but Lockett outperformed his and I have to imagine that while Metcalf won't likely be the wide receiver 5 he'll still be in that third round he's going to be a top 10 wide receiver drafted he will be and then Lockett

Probably goes in the fifth round again, if not the back of the fourth. Oh, he'll go. Fifth is the highest that Lockett will go. Do you think so? 100%. We'll still fade him a bit? Because you've got burnout with Lockett. You have, he's not the new hotness, and he's been inconsistent. So fifth round is the highest he'll go. I love Tyler Lockett there. If you drafted DK Metcalf at the end of the season, assuming you did not trade him halfway through, then you were disappointed. If you drafted Tyler Lockett, then...

In the fifth round, you were not disappointed. I think you're going to have more of the same of that. So you have, D.K. Metcalf had the third most, or the most unrealized air yards, which I like talking about air yards. It's fun. It's fun. And then on the other side, Lockett, players with 100 plus targets, a thousand plus receiving yards, and eight touchdowns in each of the last three years, Mike Evans and Tyler Lockett. Lockett has been so.

good. He is so good. The problem is it just comes in bursts. So he's not going to be consistent for your team, know what you're getting. And when you're drafting in the fifth round, that is often your third wide receiver. So if you go running back, running back, wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver, now you're talking about a guy who can win you a week and dominate for fantasy who you don't have to rely on to be your consistent wide receiver one. So I do like the value there. At this point,

If you went running back, running back, are you good? Would you be good with Metcalf as your wide receiver one? No, because I think you're going to have inconsistencies when Lockett has his big games. I mean, the truth is pretty obvious. When one of these two guys gets a 60-yard bomb touchdown, the drive is over for the other one. Sure. The yards can't be accumulated. So it's very difficult for both guys to have good games, and they're both great players.

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