Early QB Rankings: Top 10 Countdown + Rodgers Traded! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 4/25

Yeah, for sure. I mean, his talent is unquestioned. He's going to be one of the very few quarterbacks that could throw for nearly 5,000 yards. It's just a matter of do the passing touchdowns go. And this is where, and we talked about this last year with where he was at ADP, the risk of guys that don't run. If you don't have 35 passing touchdowns, you're going to be a disappointment if you have to pay up for that quarterback. Now, thankfully, Justin Herbert will fall a little bit this season, and I don't think you're going to have to pay up last year.

You were drafted him as the quarterback two, quarterback three, right near the top. And so I'm okay with where he's being drafted right now. And certainly his talent, we've seen him as the quarterback two. But he didn't rush for 150 yards last year. So the rushing baseline, not there with him. Look, I think that one thing I've been thinking about this in Dynasty, see if you agree with me. But I might just start taking the lower ranked Herbert or Burrow every year. Sure. Because I think those two guys. are much more similar than people think. I know that the weapons are a little bit better for Burrow. Herbert in a Dynasty League does not get nearly the respect Burrow gets right now. And Herbert's younger. And he's proven it with a huge season. So I think when you're a pocket passer, Burroughs going to have a couple years where he's in the 20s in the touchdowns. He just is. Yeah, I think that's true. Again, there's the difference here. You know, Burrow had five rushing touchdowns, 257 rushing yards. Not a massive.

rusher, but he's a little bit more mobile. And I don't understand why they don't use Justin Herbert. They did, though. Last year was specific, I mean, he was over 300 yards a year before. He's capable of doing that. Yeah, they need to get back to it. Well, my point is last year was an anomaly because he hurt himself. He was broken. during the year. So you saw a massive diminishment because of the injury. You remember him getting pummeled in the, it was a rib injury, right? And he's wearing a flack jacket. And you're not going to leave him susceptible to the hits. And he's not going to be willing to take off that I think they will get back to it. I guess my point. Yeah, I mean, look, that's fair. I don't know because of that injury if they really want to get back to it just because he's healthy. I think they want to avoid those injuries. So I don't think they'll get back to the rushing game.

Once he healed up from that, if you just look at the last eight games, he was much better. He was on pace for 4,800 yards and played some good ball, had most of his games where he was a quarterback one. Lamar Jackson comes in at six. We're assuming he's a Raven for these rankings. Jason's got him at four, Mike at six. I've got him at seven. Lamar Jackson's story is a complicated tale. uh because you have these this history with the MVP season uh he basically broke fantasy football for a year and you know you know what he's capable of and that's always in the back of your mind but you need to also recognize 2023 will be four seasons removed from that number one overall finish he hasn't completed a season and inside uh you know he's he was 10 in 2020 but

You know, 15 the year after playing 12 games, 14 last year playing 12 games. It's been a minute. 36 touchdowns that year through the year, 26, 16, and 17 the next three years. Yeah, I mean, it has been a minute. And I, you know, obviously after that year, he was the quarterback one drafted and he's not there anymore. So, you know, I think the fantasy community has adjusted. But if you take away his injured game where he played like 14% of the snaps and you look at the 11 games he played up to that point, I mean, he was on pace for 1,100 rushing yards. I mean, when you can rush for over 1,000 yards, you are going to be great for fantasy. He was pretty solid. The upside we know is there. And he lost Hollywood Brown, and he lost Rashad Bateman. He was throwing to nobodies. And Mark Andrews was banged up. So if Andrews is healthy, you add Odell Beckham.

We know that, you know, all the rumors are they're taking a first round wide receiver. We'll know in a couple days. But I think the situation around him is going to be better from a receiver standpoint. It can't be much worse than what it was last year. And the trouble was, you know, this run of games of one touchdown or no touchdowns. You know, one, one, one, zero, two one zero one zero. It's not, you're not going to be very happy regardless of the rushing. if you got a quarterback on a 13 touchdown pace, which is what he was doing. So you've got to fix that. If the offense can do anything, you know, if they sign a long-term deal with Lamar Jackson, your next objective is to do whatever you can to make him better. So you've got to hope they can do that and that he can succeed in that. And because he's going to have to make that transition at some point of, you know, he's not going to be able to run for 1,000, 1,300 yards a year. He is not going to be able to do that forever, but he will be able to do that as a 26-year-old, which is the age he'll play this year.

Justin Fields is 24 and he comes in at number five ahead of Lamar Jackson. Mike at four, Jason at five, me at six. I mean, he was, I like this phrasing here, a wrecking ball for fantasy. Yeah. From week six on when they unlocked him. It was the dream for fantasy players where a team finally just adjusts the offense and does whatever they can do to make a player better. That's what happened. So he went up to. 5.3 designed runs per game. The first six weeks, he was about two design runs a game. The difference in those three runs a game, it was game breaking speed on display. There aren't, it's not like there aren't concerns with Justin Fields. And this is one of the areas where fantasy and reality, I think, kind of divert a little bit. Yeah, for sure. Because Justin Fields, the fantasy player is elite.

And Justin feels the NFL player is on his way, I would say. He's on his way, but he took too many sacks, too many turnovers, too many mistakes, none of which mattered for fantasy. Yeah, I'm not even as bullish that he will ever develop into a great NFL quarterback. But you're right. For fantasy, he is, he's absolutely elite. He had 10 games from that week six on until he was injured near the end of the season. And in that stretch, One week where he wasn't a quarterback one. He had weeks of the quarterback five, the quarterback five, the quarterback five, three different times. The quarterback won, two different times. He was absolutely on fire. What we've seen with these mobile quarterbacks is that their passing weapons still really matter. It doesn't take away from their rushing volume. But when you can have a rusher who has weapons to throw the ball to, you know, you add.

AJ Brown and Devonza Smith for Jalen Hertz. It's great. You add Stefan Diggs for Josh Allen. It's great. DJ Moore isn't in that level, but he's easily far and away their best wide receiver. And they added him to the group. You add darnel Mooney back because he was also injured. So let me ask you this one. And you put him where he should be. He should be the wide receiver two on a team. Where was Jalen Hertz drafted last year? What was his ADP? He was in the sixth round at least. Sixth. Okay. You probably not. going to get Justin Fields in the six. You aren't going to get Justin Fields in the six. What last year taught the fantasy community is that these mobile rushing quarterbacks are too valuable. I've been seeing Justin Fields usually going like the third round. It's tough, but he is usually... He's the quarterback four in basketball as well.

So he's a little bit higher than where we have him ranked. So people are going for what they would view as the league winning option. Basketball might be tailored a little bit more of that direction. Whereas I think I'll see Lamar go ahead. Once he gets a contract, Lamar is going to go ahead of Fields in lots of leagues. Yeah, I believe that Justin Fields will be the last drafted super high potential dual threat quarterback available. What is that again? The last drafted. Super high potential dual threat quarterbacks. Yeah, that classic, we'll figure the... Yeah. Working on the... Anagram out for that one. Working on the title there. Joe Burrow at four. Joe Burrow was the quarterback for last year. 26 years old. I got him at three. Ooh. Yeah, a little spicy. Jason at six, Mike at five. I guess I pushed him up in our rankings. 4,400 yards, 35 touchdowns, 12 interceptions. Only quarterback last year to finish number one overall.

three times during the year. I did it in back-to-back weeks. Did it without Jamar Chase for part of the year last year. So he's an elite talent. They have a great offense, great wide receivers. We'll see what the quarterback or the running back room looks like after the draft, but I don't really care that much. Yeah, I mean, they've had a good running back. Six hundred and six passing attempts. He was outstanding. He finished last season as the quarterback four. Remember, he didn't play week 17. Yeah. So, I mean, he was absolutely outstanding. If you want to talk about a week winning type of guy, you brought it up, three number one finishes. He had a number five, a number six, a number two, number six, a number three. You're talking about those weeks where.

You just got to win because you had Burrow. He can do that. The issue with if Burrow is being drafted this high, if he is costing you a ton, is what we saw last year with Herbert. It's just you have to, you have to be north of 35 passing touchdowns. Yeah, you hope that he's got very high odds of that when you have the talent he has, but it's still difficult to predict how that goes. and whereas the rushing volume of some of the guys that we're about to talk about, it's guaranteed. It doesn't matter if your defense has a nice day. It's just baked in. I have wondered, and I don't even like talking about it, but I've wondered about maybe, you know, we've talked in Dynasty leagues. I like to cash in on the running back right at the right time, the way I did with Todd Gurley, and we've discussed, you know, going and getting that younger guy you believe in.

I've wondered if this is the opportunity to take a Josh Allen in a Dynasty League and go get Joe Burrow and. Sure, absolutely. And I've kind of played around with that a little bit because, you know, I don't think maybe a little bit because of the rumors of Josh Allen, maybe not running as much as he's run in the past. You know, it's easy to say that. But when you need it, it's there. And I don't think it happens right away. But I've thought a little bit about, you know, if somebody really likes Josh Allen, And I can get Joe Burrow. I think he's just, who has a more stable situation at the quarterback position? Joe Burrow has endless stability and longevity. There is a shelf life with these mobile rushing quarterbacks that we've seen, even the best of the best, the most dominated Cam Newton. You know, Cam Newton's not that old right now. By quarterback age standards.

But he's been done for three years because he was a mobile rushing quarterback. Joe Burrow will have a much longer shelf life and dynasty than Josh Allen will. But Josh Allen's peak right now is more guaranteed and going to be higher. That's an interesting debate on what you'd want to, because you're not going to, I mean, if you try to make that trade when the transition's happening, it's not, that's not the time to do it. No, you have to do it right now. Well, you know, my startup. Dynasty rankings, I have Josh Allen ahead of Joe Burrow. So I did look at that. I did see that. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I might have been looking on purpose there. Yeah. To speak to the passing touchdowns from pocket passers, I pulled up Aaron Rogers. I was just curious what his, you know, because he's a touchdown throwing machine. And you just look at his years back and forth. And it's like 38 touchdowns. Great. The next year, 31.

That's going to be disappointing if you draft a mile. The next year, 40, the next year he was injured, but then it was 25, 26, then 48. Touchdowns are not a sticky stat as much as other stats, so you've got to be careful with the pocket passers. Yeah, yeah, I agree. You might be right that the right approach is take Herbert or Burrow, whichever one this year, is lower. Yeah, because you're drafting the same player. You're drafting the same player with the same amount of touchdown ability. And so whoever threw fewer touchdowns last year is probably who you should draft this year. Let me give you the last three names and then we'll talk about them all together. It's the upper echelon here. Jalen Hertz at three. And then I didn't realize this until this moment, but apparently Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes were tied at one. Is that accurate? Yes, sir. It's because Jason has Patrick Mahomes at three. Yes. The disrespect. That's whatever. It's fine.

It's almost the same thing you're talking about. Now, Patrick Mahomes is ridiculous. I mean, he threw for over 50, 200 yards at 41 touchdowns. Yeah, he don't count as a pocket pass. So there's another tier there where you're willing to, you know, we don't need to run the ball in the red zone ever. We'll just have Patrick Mahomes do it. All three of these players, absolutely elite. Jalen Hertz last year finished to quarterback three. I mean, these are in order here. Quarterback three for Hertz, quarterback two for Allen, quarterback one from Holmes last year. You know, the best of the best. Jalen Hertz secured a new bag, brand new, fresh bag of cash. The actual fabric was woven out of gold. Can they do? They weave gold. They weave gold. That's new, huh? Yeah. Rumpel Stilts can figure that one out. Huh. Okay. All right. What's, give me.

Give me a reason why you can make a mistake with any of these three. What's the mistake you can make? The mistake you could make is drafting them too high. First round. First round is too high. It's a matter of opportunity cost. What type of running back or wide receiver are you sacrificing to draft the quarterback? That's all it is because outside of injury, which is unpredictable, you know that these three guys are going to be weekly dominators for fantasy. I would prefer, obviously I've got my home's. Third, he finished first last year. I would prefer the guys that have the rushing baseline of north of 500, 600 rushing yards. That's why he's behind Hertz and Allen for you. Exactly. Now, last year, Mahomes actually ran for north of 350, four rushing touchdowns. So we did add a little bit of that to his game. Breaking news. That was a little rude, but there are certain players I break in with, and it's, you know. It's a little bit of a tease. Oh, no.

But Breeze Hall did, he did tweet. Oh, we're breaking news for tweets now. Yes. And he said, quote, my knee feel a little healthier now. What? Oh, freeze. You got to, you got to just double check that tweet, my man. Read that again. What are your thoughts? My knee and knee is capitalized for some reason. Well, it's, it's a, it's a proper name. Yeah, it's a proper knee. Uh, my knee feel a little. healthier now. Okay. Well, I mean, I guess that's better than... That must be related to Mr. Rogers being there. Yeah. I just want you to know his knee is encouraged by the Rogers news. Well, that's great. Rogers go give him like a, you know, a thigh massage, get those, get, you know, stretch out those muscles and let his knee perform at his best. He also changed his profile picture to a picture of Aaron Rogers. Oh, nice. So Breece Hall is feeling really good. When you've been with...

Zach Wilson. Yeah. The world beyond Zach Wilson must feel like you've gotten out of like a dungeon cell. I mean, like the fact that Zach Wilson's teammates who are still his teammates are changing their profile pictures and be like. Hallelujah. I mean, obviously, that's fair. You know, First Battle Hall of Famer, but they have no, they do not care whatsoever about Zach Wilson's feelings. They're like, yeah, they're done with them. Very, I mean, New York will be a fun story all year long, lover, hate Aaron Rogers. It is fun. It is super fun. I'm, I'm thrilled for fantasy purposes to see what Breeze Hall and Garrett Wilson and these weapons that they have can do. I don't agree with the.

you know, the media that's like, oh, they're a Super Bowl contender now. I realize they had a very difficult schedule last year, and their schedule is way easier if you look at, you know, Vegas projected wins and the, you know, the actual schedule in how it lines up. Super Bowl contender is. That division is brutal. I think Miami is going to take a step forward with the acquisitions they've made on the defensive side. Yeah, I mean, they're good. Buffalo is as elite as any team in the NFL. Six games. And then New England and New England always fights no matter what. New England might be right at the bottom of that division. Aaron Rogers didn't get the Packers to the playoffs in a weak NFC. So I don't think he's just this cure-all. But the Jets' defense is. It could happen, though. They could win the division. They could win the division. They could win the division, yes. I don't believe they will. I just think it's going to be a lot of fun. And you've got what? You've got three wildcars now, right? And their win totals at nine and a half. So.

They're kind of projected to hit the playoffs. It's just barely, though. Is that an updated line? That's what they, they laid that line before the news. They knew. They knew that Aaron was on a plane. Okay, here we go. It is, it is our, I mean, Brett Farv going from Green Bay to New York and then Aaron Rogers going from Green Bay to New York. That's something special. Just unbelievable. Get ready, Vikings fans. Aaron Rogers coming your way soon. So Hertz, Allen, Mahomes. Look, there's not a ton to talk about at the top. We know how good these guys are. We kind of discuss some of Alan's future in the, in the borough discussion. Jalen Hertz, you know, does he have another year in store with 13 rushing touchdowns? I don't know. That's a fair question. 13 rushing touchdowns is a ton. You talk about predictability. That's one of those areas. I mean, if Jayland Hertz has eight, that's a great season on the ground and it's still not 13. So, you know, he only threw 22.

passing touchdowns. So I could see some areas. It's hard to throw as many passing touchdowns when you're rushing for 13. I think if his rushing touchdowns go down, it's going to be, you know, propped up by his passing touchdowns going up. You could have some more success in the running game outside of Janet Hertz as well. That's true. We know they have Bijan. You're not good. I mean, he had 43 red zone carries. It's the most of all time. So when you hit most of all time numbers, those are areas that can ebb and flow from season to season. I would agree with you, but the one place where it is sticky, extremely sticky, is when they have one yard to go. So if they're on the one yard line, every human in the world that follows football knows the play that's going to run.

and they are at a 90% hit rate with that play. Because when you push from behind a quarterback who can squat umpteen cajillion pounds, they cannot stop that one yard rugby scrum pile forward. And so it's just a guarantee like you're on the one. He gets a rushing touchdown. Right? I mean, about 90% of the time that's going to be true. So I do think that that is a little bit more predictive. Remember, Jalen Hurtz was far and away the quarterback won. He ended up getting injured, missed week 16, 17. But up until that point, he was ahead of Mahomes, ahead of Josh Allen in a per game basis. The ultimate draft week. One more reminder here, chance to win some big prizes, signed Jaylon Mado jersey, signed D.K. Metcalf jersey, and a listener league spot.

You just have to go to ultimate draft kit.com. Pick up your UDK. It releases in about a month, and you're going to get it at the lowest possible price. We're adding some new features this year. The UDK Plus. The UDK Plus has a ton of content that's out right now. All the dynasty information. We've got so much coming right after the draft. So, you know, if you want to see how that changes, dynasty rankings, rookie rankings, rookie recaps and reviews, all sorts of stuff, a new mock draft. Everything is going to be in the UDK Plus at Ultimate DraftKit.com. That'll do it for today's show. Thanks for tuning in. We'll have Mike back for the next episode. I'll take Jason's cigarettes away, and then we'll be back with some draft predictions. Don't miss it. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.