Fantasy Wildcards + Stack Attack, Mysterious Upside - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/9

But Michael Pittman has been somewhat touchdown dependent, and you had a tale of two cities, two pity cities last year. Wide receiver 9 from weeks 1 through 9, wide receiver 30 from week 10 on. And there was no one to throw the ball to in Indianapolis. And I agree. I think on the other couple weeks ago, Mike, you said, look, I'm not really worried about the competition for Michael Pittman. That's totally fair. They should have a little bit more.

whether it would not challenge him for the number one role. He will be their number one receiver. I am just very interested and curious about what that will mean this year. Matt Ryan, he's an aging quarterback. This is a team that really saw success with Jonathan Taylor over the back half of the year, which I think coincided with wide receiver 30 for Michael Pittman over the back half of the year. And not that I expect them to have Paris Campbell for the whole year.

But they drafted Alec Pierce, and they have some other options. So I actually, my question about the wildcard nature of Michael Pittman is if you draft him at his ceiling at wide receiver 14, if that's his ceiling, you can't really, you don't have upside, but you only have downside. So that's my fear for him is that he's being overdrafted, is too touchdown dependent, and can't take a step forward. He may just be what he was. Yeah, I think he very well might.

be what he was. But if you draft a wide receiver at wide receiver 14 and they end up being the wide receiver 13, 14, 15, that's fine. That's great. You knew what you were drafting and I'm happy to take that. You have the hope of upside. And maybe that's where you don't see the ascension. But it's really a matter of what do you believe about the talent of Pittman? Because the opportunity is, Zach Pascal was their number two target last year. He's gone. Jack Doyle's retired. T. Y. Hilton is.

seemingly forcibly retired right now. So I mean, you've got Ashton Doolin who is like the next man up. He had 22 targets last year. So Pittman's going to have the opportunity. It's just a matter of do you think if he gets 145 targets he could be a top five guy or do you think he just doesn't have that in his not a chance ability? No, I don't think so. And, you know, six touchdowns last year. I think he could go north. Yeah. Yeah. And that's that's what makes him very interesting. I think he is a wild card. He only had, you know, three finishes.

on any week above where we have him ranked right now. So you didn't see a lot of ceiling. You did see the disappearing acts over the back half of the year. It's just hard for me to imagine him. 129 targets last year, 88 receptions last year. It's hard for me to imagine. You got a Carson Wentz handicapped those targets. Yeah, but 129 from Carson Wentz is like 89 from Matt Run. He threw what, 27 touchdowns was Matt Ryan didn't do? And Matt Ryan's career touchdown rate is known.

for being average. I mean, he just doesn't throw touchdowns. Julio never had him for years. That's a concern, too. Like if I'm, like, Matt Ryan throws interceptions in the end zone, but I'd be handing the ball off to Jonathan Taylor if I was Matt Ryan around the Reds. And so I just, I don't see, I don't, I think he's a wild card when it comes to upside, but I think a lot of people think he can be top five. So I understand. That makes him interesting. I do understand your argument. My main thing and why I'm kind of pro Pitman is not.

for his upside. It's actually, because I don't think he has, I don't think there's a world where he's not a top 24 wide receiver. It's just too many targets. He's too necessary to be just, just completely sucking me an outright bust other than getting injured. This next player is a guy I think could just be a complete bust that you're holding the bag and you go, whoopsie doozles. I shouldn't have drafted. I'm definitely going to say that. Adam Thielen.

Really? Who I love. I'm not hooked on a thing. Oh, is that the drop? That was the sad. That was the sad version of the drop. Then I won't hit the real one. I thought you were hitting the real drop here. You presented him as a bust. You did not present him as a wild card because he has some upside. I mean, this is a guy. Did you say upside? Yes. Whoopsie doozles.

So right now he's being drafted as the wide receiver 29. So it doesn't cost you a tremendous amount. What? He's going in the seventh round. And this is a guy in Adam Thielen who's just been great for pretty much his entire career. He's been awesome. Last year, he was, I think, great. Now, he only played 13 games. So he finishes the wide receiver 28, but obviously that was in only 13 games. He was great around the end zone. He had double digit touchdowns in 13 games.

Every time you got near the end zone, you watched Adam Thielen just make someone look like an idiot, torch him with a simple route, and somehow end up wide open for a touchdown in the end zone. Nothing on film said that Adam Thielen should be bad, should have lost a step. I mean, obviously, at some point the end comes. Adam Thielen played his age 31 season this last year, and he was very, very good.

And he's a touchdown machine on a good offense. So his upside, when you grab him in the seventh round, I mean, if he ends up with 14 touchdowns, you're going to be a wide receiver one. His upside is being a wide receiver one. But the downside, he's going to be 32. And I know that we always feel like, well, it'll never go away for people. But I just, I always have a hard time shaking the Jordy Nelson comp that he's received for a long time. When Jordy Nelson was 31 years old,

He had 1,257 yards, 13 touchdowns was awesome, 97 receptions. In his year 32, he played 15 games, only had 482 yards, six touchdowns. The career was over. It was done. It was kaput. It's one of those things where when you get to age 32...

We, it's not always, it's not always great. The great ones, the absolute, Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, they defy the age, the, that measure of age 32. But the wheels have fallen off for plenty of others. Tori Holt, A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall. That age 32 year is awful. And the reality for Adam Thielen is,

If the touchdowns don't come, he doesn't seem like a possession guy anymore. You know, he was always this player with Kirk Cousins, who's 155 targets, 113 receptions, just unbelievable. Last year, 67 receptions, 726 yards. It was the touchdowns that really kept him afloat. And if those don't come, I think he will staying healthy, being still good.

will be a mediocre wide receiver that doesn't help you. And I think that there's a good chance that you just end up saying goodbye and saying, I've got your jersey on my wall. I thank you for the championships you've gotten me in the past, but I'm done. And this is where I'm very agist. I find myself bypassing him in every draft because I don't want to hold a bag when it's full of poop. No one wants that. I mean, it's a reasonable thing. I guarantee you.

that we could go back to the tape of last summer and find some of those quotes about Adam Thielen. And that's the interesting. From me. I was out. Yeah. That's the interesting thing about the age is you don't want to be caught holding the bag. But if you didn't want to be caught holding the bag last year, you would have maybe paid the price because you would have gotten it. What if the bag has a poop and a cinnamon roll in it? Hmm. Interesting. I'm not going to eat it, but I'm saying, are you still going to hold on? Is the cinnamon roll wrapped? Does it like overtake the scent? I think the scent of poop would win out there.

Over cinnamon? Over cinnamon, yeah. Yeah, I do. I mean, one way to find out, Mike. I don't know if there's a lot of cinnamon bun, like bathroom, like the things you plug in. Like a scented. Like a scented glade to cover over the bathroom smell. I haven't heard. I haven't done the cinnamon over. I feel like cinnamon could handle it. I still go back to is the cinnamon roll wrapped.

That is very important. In the turd? No, no. On whether I want to hold the bag. Oh, yeah, yeah. Okay. It's protected. Look, it's fair. Touchdowns are going to be a part of it. But I think that at this point in time, we've accepted that that's part of what you're getting with Adam Thielen is you're attempting to draft 10 touchdowns. Am I right? Yeah, that's what you're going after. It's pretty wild. You know he's not going to be a hundred reception guy anymore. This is Justin Jefferson's team. He's the...

Second option. And, you know, KJ Osborne looked good. You're getting Irv Smith back. There's... You do have a new, new offense. Yeah, you've got a new offense. Is that good for a 32-year-old? Well, I'd be like, let's change systems. I mean, I think you can still learn things at 32, Jason. I stopped learning things at 30. Mm-hmm. Mike, I'm glad you're bringing up this player to finish our wild card segment because we discussed...

Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson a little bit on the footcast. You have Elijah Moore as your final wild card. Yeah, so Elijah Moore of the New York Jets coming into his second year. He's, you know, in basketball right now, wide receiver 32, which is that's not too bad, finishes his rookie year with 77 targets, 43 for over 500. And five touchdowns only appeared in 11 games, was really exploding onto the scene.

and then unfortunately had the season-long injury. And what I believe is known about Elijah Moore is he is good. Like draft Twitter got, we got Elijah Moore correct where he fell, you know, into the second round, which that's not a huge deal. But the guy is electric. Like he can get open from weeks 9 through 13. He was, in fact, the wide receiver 2 in all of fantasy football. And that's a decent stretch.

That's a good stretch run to be putting up huge points. But Zach Wilson was only his quarterback for two of those games. And in one of those games, Elijah Moore was fantastic. And one of those, Elijah Moore was not so great. And even in that run, like Elijah Moore for some of those games was commanding over 30% of the targets. Like he was an absolute stud. Jason referenced Cadarius Tony on the targets for route run.

Elijah Moore is up there as well of the, that selection that Jason talked about, Elijah Moore 11th best in his targets per route runs. It's like, it's proven Elijah Moore is a good NFL wide receiver. But now we have introduced other question marks to this that like, well, I mean, just number one, like I said, his run was mostly not with Zach Wilson. Is Zach Wilson actually good?

It's still TBD. If you're going off of year one, the answer is a resounding no. He in 2021 had the worst completion rate over expectation in the NFL. There's already OTA, whisperings and rumblings that he's still struggling with his accuracy. And now the team spent a first round pick on Garrett Wilson.

It's also TBD. I mean, this is why this is such a wild card. We have so many unknowns. Is Garrett Wilson, will it translate to him being an elite NFL player? I think that the odds are good in his favor. And then, so now can Zach Wilson actually sustained fantasy value for two different wide receivers on a season long level? And in my heart, as much as I love Elijah Moore.

and Garrett Wilson. I don't think that Zach Wilson will be able to sustain both of them for any real consistent long-term stretch over the course of the season. But Elijah Moore is so good, and you want to bet on the talent, you want to bet on a guy who separates. A separator is truly a quarterback, a young quarterback's best friend, knowing that this player I'm going to see them actually be open. I don't just have to trust that it's a 50-50 ball.

I can see the path where this ball has to go. But if Garrett Wilson is the actual alpha wide receiver that the Jets believe he is when they took him, I don't remember where he went. Drake London went first and then Garrett Wilson went. Like very, very high in the NFL draft. So they're betting a huge amount that Garrett Wilson is truly a stud. And that type of stud does, he does take away from what Elijah Moore could actually be. Like I said, where in that run,

Elijah Moore seeing 30 plus percent of the targets per game. You aren't seeing 30 plus percent of the targets if Garrett Wilson is actually as good as the New York Jets hope he is. So for a sixth round pick in best ball, he'll probably be a six-seventh-round pick and redraft as well. Like that's like that's, there's a lot of variables and unknowns where in that range you can find a, a, a, a,

player who doesn't have all those concerns and yet has upside, except I don't know if they have the upside of, if Elijah Moore hits, he could be a true difference maker for your fantasy team, but I'm concerned that he won't. Well, you made a lot of the arguments that I think I agree with with this team. Garrett Wilson, six foot, 199, Elijah Moore's 510, 180.