Biggest Draft Fallers + Super Bowl Reactions, Heart Punch! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/13

Where did he finish last year? I believe he was one. Yeah, okay, he was. So last, yes, last year, but quarterback four in 21. You're saying because of variability, you get locked into one guy. Yeah. Invest a high pick. In 2018, the breakout campaign where it was holy crap, Patrick Mahomes, 5,050, then he was the QB8, then he was four, then he was four, then he was one, then he was eight. This is where I'm saying, like I'd like to be able to be in the dynasty startup drafts under two quarterback. and click a toggle that says later round quarterbacks. Well, you can. You just sort by Mike. Okay. That's the toggle. The toggle is like. If you want that toggle, quick Mike. All right. So next question comes from Lab on IG. Who are the top five draft picks for 2024? I mean, McCaffrey. Jefferson. Jefferson. Lamb Chase. Are they all in there? Ham Hill. Bijon.

I don't think Bijon will be top five. I don't think he'll be top five. So you're four quarterbacks. So you just went exactly what the. Oh, with the best ball ADP is. That's what the best ball ADP is. But I think that there are going to be, there'll be discussions for Bijon, if you get excitement around Robinson, Zach Robinson coming in, maybe Breece Hall. I don't know. I don't know. You agree with that, Jay? Four wide receivers and a running back. I do think it'll be that. All right. Brandon writes in, keeper pick for 2024. Would you rather keep Gibbs or Mark Andrews? When you're looking at keeper selections, this is a good kind of overview opportunity, if this question does not have any round compensation stated. Generally, you want to look at keeper situations like this relative to where those players are going to go in the actual draft. Jamir Gibbs is going to go ahead of Mark Andrews. For sure. And because of that, you want to keep Jamir Gibbs.

Yeah, I mean, sometimes it's really simple. It's just math. You don't want to, if you really want Andrews, then draft them. You can still draft them, you know, ahead of. You can't, Gibbs will go, I think, a full round ahead of Andrews. I agree. I think Andrews has a chance to be undervalued in the upcoming draft because we didn't see him at the end of the year. And so. And the Leporta will grab a lot of headlines and Kelsey returning. So I think Andrews will be a third round pick. Yeah. He'll probably be the third drafted tight end. I think he goes behind Leporta and Kelsey. And if that is the case, then he'll be of a very good value so long as he could stay healthy. I mean, that's the knock with Andrews. When he's out there, he's been a problem. He's great. He just needs to stay out there.

All right, another question coming in from Max. He says, Keeper Pick. Would you take DJ Moore for a fifth rounder or Chris Olave for a second rounder? This is a pretty easy one for me. Is it DJ more? I think it's very easy. Again, if you look at it from the standpoint of draft a value and what you can do, like Olave will go in the second round or maybe even later than the second. You're not even getting a value. Probably third. Yeah, I think he'll probably be in the third. So DJ Moore won't get to the fifth round in any of your draft. So the value is just significantly on DJ Moore. You want DJ Moore and Jemir Gibbs? Because if you give that second back, you could use the second on Gibbs. And this is kind of the example of if you're someone that's like, I mean, obviously, we could be wrong, right? Olavi could be so worth it. And if you are looking at this player and you're like, but I love him, I believe in him, I want him.

You still don't keep him there because if he's going to go in the third round, just draft him with your second round, draft him ahead, just like you would keep him for a second. And then you have DJ Moore at a value. Who goes whale above the fifth? Yeah. I was questioning of, like, are you so sure just because of the variable of Caleb Williams. And I, while C.J. Stroud did what he did. And there was a little blurb of some, you know, like I think of what they were saying, Hall of Famers got together and said that. Stroud's rookie year, that was the best rookie quarterback year that they had seen. It was incredible. He broke every metric for fantasy football of rookie quarterbacks don't sustain top 15 fantasy wide receivers. He had essentially two of them in points per game with Tank and Nico. But I will still bet on rookie quarterbacks not sustaining a wide receiver, even as good as I think DJ Moore is. So that was my only hesitation there.

If it's a rookie, I'm going to be. Yeah, I get what you're saying, but Justin Fields through for 2,500 yards. I mean, this is the, but his tendency was hyper-focused DJ Moore. That will be Caleb Williams tendency. It could be. I think it will be the tendency of the wide receiver core room when it's DJ Moore. Unless they take Roma Dunez. The bears are set up that they could go a rookie QB and a rookie wide receiver and just go all-out superpowered offense. Yeah, no, it's worth bringing up. Alavi in the second is too rich. And I love Chris Alavi. I personally am on the side where I believe that the percentage chance of rookie quarterbacks doing what Stroud and Herbert did is going to ever increase. Because that has been the evolution of the quarterback position and the offenses at the NFL level over time. We just went and looked at those old school pastoral ratings the other day. Oh, yeah. You know, where the.

Eight of the top ten passer ratings in football history are active quarterbacks today. But to go into that is those quarterbacks you named were not the first quarterback drafted. Well, I'm not saying you always get it right. I'm just saying that if you discount them all, it will be at the peril of the Nico Collins and Tankdale. Yes, you could have some big, you could end up with some big misses. It just comes down to what you believe about those players. And you have to be willing to go with that. All right, Mike. Carter wants to know what percentage of trades that you send get accepted. Ooh. A percentage of trades that I send get accepted. Andy's is 0.02%. Because Andy's not afraid to just fire off a bunch of trades at once. Not saying you don't put thought into it, but you're. No, you can say it however you want, man. You're, you are more likely to shoot a trade off. I.

When it comes, I really overthink even sending the trade offer. If you fire 100 golf balls at a green. Right. One of them goes in. Two might roll in. If you just cannon fire 100 golf balls at a green. Yeah. That's your secret because even though we talk about. Endurance? Yeah. I'm like, oh, you get 0.02% of your trades accepted. you still make the most total trades completed, which is incredible. Do you think about trades? Do you just strategically? Oh, 100%. I'm saying like, do you just open it up and go, this would be fun. No, no, I don't. I think, I think I sit down and I try to find two or three angles for every team and then I start there.

But then the like counters and stuff, they get ramped up. All jokes aside, what percentage of your trades? I'm curious all three of us. Yeah, I mean, I would say like 3%. I'd go 15 to 20-ish. Yeah, I'm probably about 10% I think of my offers. But it's... What do you think, Papa Josh? I said you go fishing. Yeah. Yeah, I mean... But it works. Got to have the right bait, man. Of Andy's strategy. And we talk about this a lot of... when you're making trades, hyper-targeting one player, like, because I'm going to get that guy, your leverage is zero, your chance of actually getting that, you're going to have to overpay more than likely to go get that player, where Andy's just trying to find this, this improves my team. Because this player will fill some statistical holes that I need, and it may not be the elite superstar, but it helps my team. It's moneyball. Yeah.

Oh, I know. Yes, very much moneyball. I'll tell you why I close trades sometimes more than other people in our league. I don't get bogged down with the peripheral, non-important parts of the deal. I'm willing to overpay. I'm willing to give an extra pick so that the trade just hits you in the face like, I can't pass on that. You know, when I went after C.D. Lamb, you know, it's just like, okay, you don't want to do it for a second. I'll give you two seconds. Just in two seconds, that's the decision I make is like, I'm just going to give you, I'm going to make it so that you feel dumb, not taking my trade, even though I want the best player out of the deal. And it doesn't always work, but it did this year. All right, would you trade AJ Brown straight up for a 2020, for the 2024 101 in a dynasty rookie draft? Would you trade AJ Brown away?

to basically get Marvin Harrison Jr. No, no, I wouldn't. I think Marvin Harrison Jr. is as good a prospect as we've seen since, probably since Megatron, just as far as like, wow, that high up? Yeah, I mean, I think so. But at the same time, he hasn't done it on the NFL field. We don't know his landing spot. I would be tempted. There are a lot of great, great looking wide receivers that don't hit the way we hope. AJ Brown already has hit. AJ Brown is a superstar. Yes. He's a top 10 wide receiver and fantasy next year in the draft. He's super young. He'll be turning 27. Yeah, that's not super young compared to the other guys at the top of our dynasty. Like he's the oldest of the top seven that we have by consensus at 26.6 years old. You have them the highest, Jason, at five right now in our dynasty rankings. I got him at seven, Mike, at six. So we all, I just think it's a gamble you could take. Yeah, yeah. I mean, so would you? I think I would.

Yeah. Yeah, I don't like some of what happened last year in Philly with A.J. Brown. And so I do worry a little bit about the unraveling potential there. So it is funny. Another way to think about the exact same thing is if this is a startup draft and you can draft your picks, you know, you could draft the 101, you know, wherever. It's a matter of saying, okay, I think Marvin Harrison then is. Well, like a top five, six, seven, eight. Like he's clearly a first round, not just rookie first round, but you're saying a first round startup pick. I mean, if he's Kyler Murray's number one, and you guys are both very bullish on Kyler long term, I think it's a decision to be made. Mike, what would you do? Would you do it or not? I, at this point right now, I don't think I would. Okay. I'm, if you tell me, like, if you lock in Marvin to the Arizona Cardinals.

Okay, now the conversation is even more interesting. But the NFL draft can be very painful to those who have really high rookie picks. Like, remember how excited everyone was. And situation is not everything. I will say that. We say that all the time. But when JSN went to the Seattle Seahawks and everyone with the 102 went, ugh. I guess I still take him or maybe I take Gibbs now. So with all the rumors abound, we got it, the Patriots at three? Yeah. Just. Yeah. That's why I really like to know the team first. If you want to let me know that? I am not projecting that the Patriots are taking Marvin Harrison. I think that they should take a quarterback. But imagine a world where draft that happens. And the Patriots take Harrison at number three. How?

You're going to... You're going to feel like you got punched in the heart. Seriously. That doesn't sound fun. I don't think I've ever been punched in my heart. No, I think it could stop it. Or if you... It's a death punch. If you do have the bears not take Caleb Williams, that they turn back to spots, and now he's the number two for Justin Fields, there's ways it can go wrong. That's where... Yeah, no, that's fair. That's why it makes sense. to keep what you know. It's tantalizing, though. Oh, for sure. Instagram question, what is the worst reason that you have passed on a guy in a fantasy draft? The word. Okay. I think I know that I probably have passed on players because I almost don't want your takes to be right about them. Okay.

And the tree. I mean, oh, don't get me that. I'm not alone. I'm not alone there probably. Okay. I mean, I, does that make sense? Oh, yeah. 100%. That is hilarious. I'm sure I've been sitting there with Michael Pittman at a value in a draft before. Yeah. Naji Harris, you think I've probably made some wrong decisions before. That's funny. I don't know. That's the best thing I can come up with. I think it's when you've been burned by a player. Oh, yeah. When you've got the scars from a previous season and you're like, that. Mike didn't have a lot of DeAndre Swift. Right. Exactly. Mike wouldn't have drafted DeAndre Swift in the undrafted ranks. He wouldn't put him on the roster even if he's a value last year because of the scars from the year prior. I think that's the most common poor reason to.

miss out on a pick, but it's going to keep happening. Do you have any must have players already for next year's draft? Regardless of value, this is a question from Irish Boy 8 on Instagram. Man. Do you already have any must have players for next season? Yes. Kyron Williams. I mean, obviously he's going to be a first, but he's like a must to me. I think he's The second best running back. So then that top five discussion? Yeah, he was the name. We moved on so I didn't go back to it, but I was going to bring Kyron up because I think he's right there. That's, I mean, that's a profound statement. No one's on the must draft list, but the short list of I'm really intrigued would be like Anthony Richardson, assuming his shoulder is okay because it was a tough surgery to come back from. We'll see if he's all right.

But I think that he will be still a higher draft pick in the middle rounds, but what he can do fantasy-wise, I think he's going to be a really sought-after guy the following year. I think Tank Dell is the name coming to mind. Okay. Did you see C.J. Stroud talk about his super team? He was on a Michael Parsons podcast, and he was asked to, like, build your perfect offensive lineup. So his wide receiver is always interesting when you ask a quarterback of an actual team to pick a team. So his wide receivers were Devante Adams on one side. Oh gosh. Why am I forgetting the other side of the field? It was another big time wide receiver. And Tank Del? Tank was his slot guy. Oh, baby. And all the officers. Not Nico. No, no, no. And the offense of linemen were, you know, from other teams. And, you know, it's like.

Laine Jackson was his right tackle and his running back. I don't remember who was running. Oh, Jumeer Gibbs was his running back. You know what I mean? So he built this super team out, but Tankdale was a slot guy. And I just think he's so talented. Like if you remember years ago when we kind of like saw Stefan Biggs in Minnesota and it was like, oh, well, that guy's going to be a superstar. I don't care where he's drafted. Like Tank Dell's on that path. So all right, quick break back on some more questions. Well, before we answer a couple more questions, I did want to throw a little shout out because we had Candice, who was, she's a huge fan of the show. She was on Wheel of Fortune last week. That's so awesome. For NFL Superfan week. And she wanted, she said she wanted to pimp the show, but they wouldn't let her. Yeah. What's that all about? What's that about? Yeah. Don't mention the name of that show. Is Seajax? Oh, yeah. Yeah, we're not talking about their show. Yeah. It's the one with the.

The big wheel. You can make a fortune. You can make a lot of money. What? But shout out to Candice, who went to the bonus round. If you could go on any game show, which one would you go on? I'll tell you right now, I don't know the answer, but it will be the one with the least embarrassment possible to me. Okay, you want to go most stakes. I do not, like, I think it's, um, Price is right. It's not millionaire. No, I think it's price is right where like the worst thing that happens to me is I don't get a treadmill. You know what I mean? Right. But and you lose and then it's now someone else is up. Yeah, I don't. We move on real fast. I can't be there. I can't be there and do the like the Wheel of Fortune when they misread the answer. Oh, that's. Oh, yeah. Some of those videos can be brutal. I can't be in that position because when I'm in the pressure's on, I'm afraid I'm going to shrink.

Yeah. And I don't know. Maybe I come through big time. Our own Al Borland was on a game show on a cruise ship this past week. Wait, what? In front of 2,000 people and won. What? What? What game? It was with his son. It was called What's Age got to do with it? And it's a parent child competition. But he won it. Wow. So that's a man that doesn't shrink, at least in international waters. I had the, I had one time where. one of the Disney's and I think it was basically it was like who wants to be a millionaire but everyone gets to play and did you win it no no but the uh you as as the person is playing everyone in the audience is also playing but time is a massive factor in it so I mean you got to you got to get it in be right and then there was about the halfway point before the next person comes up and so they show you know who's leading I was leading

And I went into a full panic. Oh, yeah. Because it was, you're like, the knowledge of the fact you were winning. All you want is, oh, dude, I want to go do it. And then I'm actually staring down. And I'm just, you know, in front of 50 people or whatever. And the fact that I almost got to go up there, I just start sweating. My hands are all shaking. My heart starts going like 150. So you got, you have a game show, Jason? Yeah. I mean, it's not, it's not as big of. end to win, but man, I would love to do the family feud. That's just fun. That game is fun. They must drive it home to every person on that show that they have to clap and say good answer. They have to. Yes. Like if you don't do it, they will, the big hook will come and grab it. You're not allowed on the show. You don't say good answer. Yeah. All right. Noah wants to know what Tyree kills dynasty value is. Is it a good time to trade them away? You know, try them to me.

My team could use them. I was going to say, Tyreek is one of those assets in Dynasty where he's very, very, very valuable to a contender. And he is not the right piece for a rebuild. I think he has two more seasons under contract. And he whether or not he follows through, he told us. Yes. He told the public when he was going to retire. I think it was. He was going to finish out this contract and then walk away. That was what he said. Obviously, things change. Plenty of players. walk away when they don't expect and stay longer than they thought. But right now, that's kind of how I'm mentally valuing Tyree Kill is I'm seeing him as two more awesome seasons than zero, than nothing. Not like... Two more? That's super valuable. Yeah, and I agree. I agree. That's why I've got... We have them at 5, 9 and 8 as a teaser for the Dynasty rankings here. I have them at 5. Mike 8, Jason 9.

Yeah. So, I mean, he's still a very valuable asset. Yeah. Oh, if you're going for it. But if you are truly in a rebuild looking at your roster going, this, I'm so far away from the playoffs, then I'd probably trade them away. If you're looking at your team with the rookie picks you have saying, hey, if some things bounce right, I could get in the tournament. And that's what, that's all you got to do is have players like Tyree Kill once you're in the playoff situation. hope that they go nuclear in those couple weeks. Otherwise, I'd move it. This question from Game Over says, are you all dropping a fantasy baseballer podcast? What are you saying about my DMVACs? Oh, you do have a DEVAC. And that's funny because all the, all the baseball teams yesterday, the second of the Super Bowl ended, they had their, it's baseball season tweets going out. So Jason, are you going to host that one for us?

Yeah, man. Pitchers and catchers report on wins. Ryan, okay, that's who you need to draft. He's so good at throwing the baseball. I mean, you must have a few other suggestions. Yeah. Oh, for sure. Hold on. Babe Ruth. Oh, man. I really thought you could get. Gonzo? I can't remember his. That's just the Muppet. Yeah. Yeah. This is where you're at in baseball names now. Uh, Mariano Rivera. Uh, Mike, you want to throw a few more in there? Um, Kent Herbeck. Yes. Um, we get some Craig DeGio up in here. I know we have a, a good player on the deep backs. And all, the only name that's coming to my head is Corbyn Dallas, which is that is that is the action star from, uh, fifth element. It's Corbyn Carol. It's Corbyn Carol. Okay. Corby Dallas from fifth element.

So what do you think? You answer the question for yourself out there. Do you want to listen to it? They would. The whole show is us naming players who are from the 90s. They're 80 years older. They're deceased already. Jeff Bagwell. Oh, he was one of the killer bees, right? Yeah, with Bizio. Yeah. Yeah. Great job, Mike. I wonder if you locked me in a room. And you said like you have to name 50 baseball players. And then they'll release your family from the hostage situation. Exactly. I don't get out of the room until I literally sit down and come up with 50. Right. I wonder if I could do it. Like at all time. Yeah. Starts naming characters from Field of Dreams. Right. That, that's. Hey, those were real players. Yeah. At some point. All right. Alex Tabor says.

or asks, how do I convince my redraft league to switch to a keeper? Hmm. Well, keepers are my most... Come on. Yeah, you hit him with a... Come on. Keeper leagues are an absolute blast. That's my favorite format. Our league of record is a keeper where we basically get to take three players over to the next year. It gives us assets in draft picks to be able to trade. It allows the draft... to still be extremely important and matter just like a redraft, but it keeps it, you know, completely going. Like there's no real offseason. Now we're in a part of our Keeper League that can be fun again. Convincing other people to do it, that's the argument. That's the story. I think what you, if you have one league that you're very close with, that's great, you know, and you're wanting to convert.

You either will get the support naturally. People would be like, heck yeah, that sounds great. Let's do it. And if they don't and you're needing to convince them, then what I would try is creating just a second league with that set. You know, let's keep that league going, but let's also add a keeper league. That would be my only advice of being able to try to convince people who aren't already in it. Yeah, the part that I like about the keeper leagues is this changes strategy a bit. then I've become more invested in certain players because you end up, it's not all the time, but sometimes you'll have a guy kept for three or four years, which I actually think is more of a rarity now. But when you find that one player and you hit when they're in. Antonio Brown is yours. Like Antonio Brown is a, is. Yeah, we know, we know him as Mike's. Yeah. And you guys, you didn't get to the.

experience. No, it was a torture chamber. The greatness that wasn't Tony O'Brien. Yeah, and that's why I'm really hoping I'm beginning that the CD Lamb lineage here. Hey, you and me, Broth, brother. You and me broth. All right, we're going to, we're going to wrap it up. That's going to be it. Thank you for joining us today. We'll be back with another show on Thursday, a rookie review episode. So for those of you, like us, utterly obsessed with fantasy football, we don't go away. We kick it into gear. Right here right now. Ultimate draft kit.com. If you want to pick up the UDK and the UDK Plus, it's available right now at the lowest possible price, it is a pre-order discount. UDK Plus gives you access to all those dynasty rankings we referenced today. So you can set the table for a great 2024, bring home that Foot Clan title. Until next time for Kent Herbeck, Jeff Bagwell and Nolan Ryan. This is the fantasy footballers. Take care. Goodbye.

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