Mock Draft! Top 12 Picks for 2025 - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/20

to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. Whoa. What's going on over there, coffee boy? You know, we three cups deep or what? It's funny because I was just thinking about what was going on right before the show began. And so I think my mind was distracted. So maybe the, the, ah, welcome. It just kept going because I'm looking at Deucer's Alley over here as we start the Fantasy Footballers podcast. It was a fun morning. Is that the word you'd use? For us. Yeah. I think it brought great entertainment. It's Thursday. It's February 20th. We're pre-recording this show a couple days early.

in light of the fact we are at the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association conference in Vegas. I am on an absolute heater right now. Mike, I don't want people to know. While you're listening, Mike is just. I have hit at least six points in a row on the craps table. Oh, okay. Hopefully you're there. Oh, you're going craps. Got $36 of winnings in his pocket. Well, well, I didn't say that I lost. Mike doesn't go that hard. I did. I lost thousands before the heater. Now look, I mean, Inducers Alley right now. By the way, we have a mock draft first round mock draft 2025. We're going to do on today's episode. But you'll notice there is a very conspicuous absence. The two. No, not for the reason that it normally is. No, this person is not using the restroom. In fact, they are not here because Al Borland, you know, he was doing what he does, always here, always available, always ready to go. Certainly eight to ten times more reliable than.

these guys yeah for sure goodness yes i'm just happy that executive producer that papa josh over there hit record on all the microphones are you recording yourself today yes okay because yesterday on the footcast he didn't even record himself um but al borland was involved in a uh like a parking lot hit and run this morning yeah was he was he was the one who went into an appointment yeah came out from said appointment and the car was not the same as when he went in. No, no, no, no. Whoever this person was, they decided they would hit a Tesla because he drives a Model Y. They would hit a Tesla, which is totally rigged up with tons of active cameras at all times. Yeah. They would get out of their vehicle. Yeah. They would look at the damage done, which was significant, and then get in their truck and drive away. Uh-huh. And just so you know, when you back into a car, your license plate is...

Like, that's the main show. That's the nose of the vehicle at that point. So it was so fun this morning to, you know, it's like he's showing the video and it's like, oh, okay, so we know exactly who this is. License plate. And then Andy, no, I'm just kidding. And then the best part was Andy's like, you know, genuinely there is a chance because I had like a, you know, a trailer hitch. There is a small percentage chance that the person maybe was unaware, despite the damage cause that. They backed into the vehicle. It just didn't feel it. It's a large truck. And then Jeremy proceeds to send a screenshot of later when the person gets out of the vehicle and looks at the damage and is like, yep, I did it. Yeah. So pro tip for you criminals out there, don't hit a car that's covered in cameras. Yeah. I mean, and drive away. And then don't get out. Don't get out and show your face on camera.

And then drive away. So surprised they didn't go up and like wave at the camera. You'll never catch me. I mean, I hit Jeremy's car once. Yeah. And I handled my business. It was a brand new car. It was Jeremy's brand new car. You left him a nice note. I left him a note. I said, I did it. Signed Papa Josh. Welcome in one and all. Come on people. Al Borland. You got to do better. Let's be better. You got to do better than that. Oh man, not what we expected. So no Al Borland this morning, but the other guys got it on lockdown. Just no bathroom breaks back there, please. We got a good quick question of the day. We've got a first round mock draft. Thought it'd be fun to just see where we have guys slot it in, you know, in February. Yeah. You know, so that that'll be fun. We'll do that. I'm not going to cover any news on today's show because like I said, we're pre-recording it.

by a few days. So we'll just cover any news we missed next Tuesday. I mean, there's just the one bit that we have right now is Clyde Edwards-Aler did resign with the Saints. So it would, dynasty-wise, if you are rostering him, I would presume he is like, he will be the backup for Alvin Camara. It's funny because he's not totally valueless is what I'm saying. So what you're saying is this is bad news if you're rostering Clyde Edwards-Alair. No. Because now. You have to keep rostering. I do not believe you have to keep rostering him. But I would look. Alvin Camara was over 1,400 all-purpose yards last year, despite turning 30 this year. He is going to be the focal point of the offense. Yeah, I'm not arguing that in the slightest. But I'm saying in a dynasty league, you want as many backup running backs on that roster as you can possibly handle. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, this is Mike. You got to understand, Mike is the man who drafted Clyde Edwards-Aler in a dynasty.

He had the shiny Ferrari. He has now got a, you know, a weathered. I got Jeremy's car. He's got a weathered. It's pretty beat up. One wheels left. It does move a little bit. And he's finding a reason to keep him on. Brooks is with me. The roster. Brooks knows. You just stash as many backups. And then a week or two pops up. You're like, holy crap. I can't believe I have that guy in my roster. And I'm going to play. Okay. All right. Well, the Ultimate Draft Kit pre-orders available now. Ultimate DraftKit.com, get it by March 1st, and you'll be entered to win a listener league spot. You'll get the lowest price on the UDK, UDK Plus and some other perks and giveaways. You can check that out at Ultimate DraftKit.com. Our quick question of the day, did you hit Jeremy's? No. Tommy Reed. We don't have to ask. We know. Yeah, we know. And here's her picture.

We know who you are. Are Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen Worth second round draft capital next season? That is the question. And while you ponder it, we have a little bit of research on the situation. We've had 21 quarterbacks drafted somewhere in the first two rounds since 2011. So high draft capital costs for quarterbacks 21 times. Obviously, you're passing on other positions, right? We call the quarterback position a onesie spot along with the tight end unless you're in a super flex. You're playing one quarterback every week. You're playing two running backs at least. You're playing two wide receivers at least. So you really need them to pay off if you spin up. 11 of the 21. So 52% paid off on their average draft position. So you got a 50-50 shot historically over the last.

14 years that they're worth it. But lately over the last five years, if you just look, because we've gotten better at fantasy football as a community, as an entity, seven of the eight quarterbacks drafted in the first and second rounds have been relative hits. So it's gotten better, but just kind of what you need, if you're spending a first round pick, you need more than 24 fantasy points per game. You know, when you're looking at opportunity costs, if it's a second round pick, you need more than 22 and a half fantasy points per game as like the barometer for did it. Was it a good pick? And so that's when you're looking at Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, you go, do you expect them to have 22 and a half fantasy points per game in four point per passing touchdown leagues? Yes, I do. I expect that to happen for both of them. That doesn't mean I will pick them.

because there's another side of the equation. Yeah, the other side is what you're losing, right? If you are passing on a wide receiver in the second round and one that's more assured, one that's more consistent, one that provides, I don't know, it's called 17 fancy points a game or 16 fancy points a game. And then what I'm getting in return later on is 12 points a game. You know, and I have other quarterbacks that I'm fond of or think could enter that upper. stratosphere and maybe only end up a couple points behind Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. I still wouldn't make that decision. There is, I mean, there's an emotional piece that comes with knowing you have a starter slotted in every week. It is really nice when you have a top end quarterback that hits. If you knew for sure that they are above that threshold, I am totally happy to take that pick. For me, that is a pro Josh Allen.

and a little bit of an anti-Lamar Jackson going into 2025 at that cost. If you look at the last few years, I mean, Josh Allen clears that benchmark of 22 and a half fantasy points every year, like for the last six, seven years. It's just what he does over and over and over. Lamar Jackson was amazing this season, but that's not what he has done. Yes, number one most consistent. He threw for 41 passing touchdowns. Here is his passing touchdowns in the last five years. 41, amazing. Nice. 24, 17, 16, 26. One of those things ain't like the others. And I don't, I'm not going to say that I expect him to throw 8.6% of his passes for touchdowns next year. That seems like an outlier. And if he doesn't do that, all of those seasons I just read, he was under the 22.5 fantasy points benchmark. So obviously we know he can do it. He just did it.

I'm going to bet against it on the Lamar side. It's not just that. It's a, like, you need the other quarterbacks to be bad. I mean, to keep and maintain your advantage. This is just, we're giving the numbers of like, they got to hit this threshold so they are worth the pick. Well, now you've got to look at the field. Is the field, there are years where the field is subpar. And there's only the two guys at the very top. And if you have those quarterbacks, you have a big point advantage. on a weekly basis. But like last year, you know, Lamar was crazy with the, I'm looking at six point right now. Sorry to switch formats, but he's over 30. Burroughs at 27, Baker's at 26, Allen's at 25, Jaden's at 24, Goff is at 23. The discrepancy between Lamar and Goff is huge, but like there's a handful of guys who are keeping you competitive and then the opportunity cost of the other players.

the wide receivers, the running backs, the higher probability of the second round pick hitting. Second round is too much for me. If you want to get into a third round discussion, okay, I can see it. I think we're going to always end up here on this show because there's also. It's because it's supplied demand. This is market. And the last 14 years, you've got a 50-50 shot of them delivering anyways. And maybe some of the good fortune in recent history has just been, you know, if an injury happens, right? Where do you need depth more if an injury happens? At positions that you have to start multiples? Correct. Or at the onesie positions? I mean, I also think it's easier to identify later round quarterbacks personally that I think, you know, could deliver higher end totals like a Jaden Daniels who was called out early, early, early, early, early. You could have drafted Derek Henry in the second round instead of Josh Allen last year and then gone and got a Jaden Daniels or a Joe Burrow.

later on. Or pounced on Baker off of the waiver wire. Right. If you want to compare the onesie position, you want to lock down one of your onesie positions, it seems pretty clear that just like, you know, you go Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, maybe Jaden Daniels, they're going to be great. Well, at the tight end position, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers are going to be great. Maybe you want to throw George Kittle in there, maybe not, but that's kind of it. Now you look at like round eight, nine, ten. Yeah, you've got rookies coming in that run like Jaden Daniels and all those guys that were, what late round tight end is going to become elite? I'm not saying like, yeah, exactly. You're grabbing your, you know, you're, unless one of the rookie tight ends. Sure, but even, you know, Brock wasn't a ninth-th round pick this last year. I think he was like tight-end eight or nine. He was around there. Then to answer the question succinctly, no. Yeah, not a second. Yeah.

I don't, I say no. I, yeah, I agree. Okay. All right. So, we'll, we'll jump right into it. We're going to do a- We could answer that real quick. Yeah, but we didn't. We just didn't. This is the data. This is why. I'm going to illustrate the point, you know, remind people why we, we wait on quarterbacks unless we're, you know, unless we want to year off of that stress. You just want to. That is true, like some leagues, leagues I don't care about. I'll be real honest. Oh, do you draft early quarterbacks? 100% I draft early quarterbacks and early tight-ins and leagues I don't care about. Less maintenance. Less maintenance. I'm like, I don't want to scour the waiver. But if I care about the league, if I'm like this, I'm like, this is my passion. This is who I am, you know, the league of record. I'm not, I'm not doing, I'm not playing the lazy man game. No. No, and that's not to say you won't be.

tempted when you're in the middle of the draft and you see that name there and you're like oh i could you know sometimes it's harder to draft a um you know i don't know what the name might be maybe it's uh brian thomas or maybe it's maybe even go down maybe you say bucky irving right like but then you got josh allen the MVP sitting there that can be a tough decision uh to go to go away from the star i was going to bring that up so right before coming into the studio i mentioned a mic i was like man

Maybe we should have done a two-round mock because when I was coming up with my list of the players were drafting in the first round, there were a lot of players that felt like kind of that first round bubble that were the Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Neighbors and Drake London and, you know, does A.J. Brown sneak in. There's these second round or is, you know, the Bowers and Trey McBride and all these names. Spoilers. Well, those, I mean, I doubt they're in the first, but my point was going back to. Do you take that opportunity to cause it to the quarterback? There are so many good players in the second this year. Well, let's jump right in. The fantasy footballers mock draft. All right, a little early bird first round 2025 mock draft. Jason, I guess you won the prize. You got the first pick. Woo-hoo. So what are we doing here? That was a real Pillsbury doughboy. Yeah, it was. You happy about that? Self-evaluating? Yeah. No, I'm...

Pretty happy with that. He does some great work. Who's in consideration of number one? Yeah, the doughboy does great consider. Does great work. Is that the pick? I think that was the pitch. So in consideration is between two players to me. It's just a matter of do I want a wide receiver? Do I want a running back? Because both of these players were exceptional this last year and project to be more of the same next year, which is Jamar Chase and Saquan Barkley. That's my number one wide receiver, my number one running back. It's very difficult for people to repeat exactly what they did last year. But if I look at the variables around it, we don't know if T. Higgins is going to be on this team. He might leave. Saquan is older. Jamar Chase is in his prime. And when you talk about the difference that they made, Seekwon was great. But Jamar Chase lapped the field. Second place in half PPR leagues, you know, the second best wide receiver was.

like four and a half points per game worse. This was, to me, if I've got the first pick, it's Jamar Chase. And when I say I was considering, I wasn't really considering. It would be between those two people, but it was easy. It was like immediately it was Jamar Chase. Yeah, that's the right pick, I think. Because you can make an argument, Sequin shouldn't even be the first running back. Yeah, he won't be. Oh, okay, there you go. So, but you, how could you make the argument like? for someone else over Jamar Chase after what he just did. Yeah, if the season that he had lapping the field, like if we can pretend for a moment that it was Jefferson that put those numbers up and Chase put the Jefferson numbers up, I think you have an argument at that point to say, hey, you know, you like Joe Borough, you like Joe Burrow more, he could be the MVP, he could throw for 45 touchdowns, and Chase just kind of had a down year and Chase could.

surpass him. Like if those roles were reversed, but in this situation, because of Joe Burroughs performance last year, which was MVP caliber, and because of a change of quarterback in. Yeah, expecting a rookie. In Minnesota, because of a lot of mouths to feed with an Amman Ra because of quarterback problems for neighbors. Like there isn't really, you know, C.D. Lamb. Yeah, he could do it again. But you're going to have to have a return for Dak Prescott and success on the offense. So. I think Chase would have been my pick at one, but I will go with Bijon Robinson at pick number two. I like it. I will go with Bijon. This was a very special year for Sequin Barclay, and while his variables haven't changed tremendously, and I don't want to discount his season in any way, it was just a very special 2,000-yard season with a ton of dependency on big, long touchdown runs. Those are...

It's hard to repeat those at the volume that Saquan did. I think what we saw from Bejohn in the second half, his youth, Michael Pinnock's taken over. I'm going to slightly go with Bejohn Robinson here. He led all running backs in percentage of carries that went five plus yards. He kind of did it quietly. The beginning of the season wasn't all roses for him. Yeah, I mean, Sequin is coming off a tremendous season that, you know, maybe a lot of people will just reward that with the number one overall pick, which I think is fine. But he does have an injury history. He is older, which increases the odds of those injuries. I love that the offensive line and the team is going to be the same. So I think it's splitting hairs there as opposed to chase. That part's good. You could also make the argument. You know, he's not.

I mean, he can be a prolific pass catcher, but that's not what this system is. No. And he wasn't, even though he was the number one running back. It was on the basis of total yardage and touchdowns. And we just saw, you know, he almost broke the record. He almost broke the probably could have broken the all-time rushing record. Last year, the season before, there was a wide receiver that almost broke the receiving yards record, but he was a little older. And then he played 17 games this year and got about half of that in Tyree Kill. So it's trying to forecast, yeah, the variability there. Only two running back since 2007 had 17 plus fantasy points in 10 of the final 11 games. It was McCaffrey in the fantasy breaking season in 2019. And it was this past year's Bijan Robinson. So I'm looking at it from that last 10, 11 games and what we're projecting into the future. So I slightly lean Bijan Robinson and we'll take him with the number two pick.

Cool. I'll take Saquan Barclay. Ah. Ah. That, it's, it's interesting of that Bijan is the preferred, because either the argument to me is not Bijan at number. It's, it's, it's Jimere Gibbs or Saquan Barkley. That, that's how, that's how I lean and I, and I, and I'm looking at things. Yeah, the long touchdowns are hard to repeat, but if anybody's going to repeat them, it's, Sequin Barclay, who frequently has his longest carry of the season is, is 40 plus, where Bijon is just, no, I don't know, what was Bijon's longest? Let me hold it up. 37 and 38 as a rookie, like, and which is, that's still great. I mean, home runs at the running back position are not frequent. We can get too wrapped up in, well, this guy was all, he's only getting 25 is his longest run.

If you're getting 15-yard carries all the time, then that's fine. I don't care if you're not getting 50-yard runs. But Saquan-Barkley, I'm still confident despite him being 28 years old. I get it. I get the discussion around Gibbs as well, and we'll move on to pick number. Most yards before contact since 2016, which I... That's a heck of a performance by the offensive line. It's like, look at last year with D'Andre Swift. I mean... Yeah, they were doing the same stuff, but Swift is not. He looked like a good player for a second. The Eagles really. He got a lot of money because the Eagles owe line. The Eagles really aren't fair. Like I was just going to say, hey, Cardinals, as a Cardinal fan, build the trenches. You know what I mean? Like, they're, they're offensive and defensive lines. It is boring on draft day. But then I was like, wait, but you know, they've got the best defensive line maybe in the league and they've got maybe the best offensive line in the league. And it's like, okay, that's boring.

Boring. Top quarterback, top wide receivers. But then they've got two stud wide receivers, a great quarterback. It's like, wait. They rebuilt their entire cornerback, you know, secondary in one year. I think they won the Super Bowl. I think you're right. We'll take a break. We'll be right back. Jamar Chase at one, Bijon at two, Sequin at three. Jason is now on the clock in our early, early 2025 first round mock draft talking through some of these names. Yeah, I'm in an interesting spot, very similar to the first time I picked when I was deciding between Jamar Chase and Saquan Barkley, a wide receiver or a running back. My number two wide receiver is available. My number two running back is available. I have Gibbs at number two as well. However... Is your number one Bark? Oh, you said that. Yeah, yeah. And Bijon's my third.

I didn't know you both hated Bijon. All so much. I just think he's number three. Absolutely. Bronze medal Bejohn Robinson. Just love three backs. Not on the same team. Please only use one running back on a team, offensive coordinators for fantasy football purposes. And yet you both have Gibbs ahead of Bejohn. That sentence is why I have him at three. Yeah, I mean, it's ironic. Mike's. you know, reason for the lack of explosive plays, Bijon having 36 yards as his longest run. When someone breaks fantasy, it's the season, you know, CJ 2K, it's the season where it's just like they can have four or five 60 yard rushing or receiving touchdowns. That's what Jamar Chase just did. It's what Sequin Barkley just did. Jamir Gibbs can do that. I don't know that Bejohn has it. He doesn't have that pull away long speed that sticks.

He's, you know, constantly breaking tackles. But I'm going to take C.D. Lamb here. Oh. C.D. Lamb is my number two wide receiver. This last year in the first 17 weeks of the season, because he didn't play in week 18 and week 18 doesn't matter, he was the wide receiver five. And he didn't have a quarterback and he didn't have a shoulder. That's coming off of being the number one wide receiver two seasons ago. And going into next year healthy with DAC there, You know, we can mock Schottenheimer, but it's continuity. It's the offensive coordinator that was just running things where C.D. Lamb is as good a wide receiver as anyone in the National Football League. He is an alpha for the team. His target market share is great. And I think that the Dallas Cowboys with Dak Prescott are a top 10 offense easily. So the scoring opportunities go up. We already know he can be the wide receiver one. So I've got him as.

I mean, I just don't want to forget about him because of what a really lost season it was for the Cowboys. Yeah, I mean, I think the fact he was the wide receiver one two years ago is pretty compelling. Kyle just gave us some pretty interesting information for the three running backs, because we're talking about length of run. So percentage of carries that went for five or more yards. Barkley was at 39%. Bejon's at 44. and Jamir Gibbs is at 41%. So that's what we were talking about, where Bijan is consistently getting the smaller chunks, which like those add up. Then 10 plus yards, the percentage of carries that have done that, Barkley was at 13, Gibbs at 17%, which is wild, and Bijan's down at 11. And then the big boy carries, the 15 or more rushing yards per touch. Barkley was at 7%.

Gibbs at 10%, Bijon down at 4%. You guys know I love Jamir Gibbs. Yeah, yeah. But I mean, when I look at Bijan and Gibbs, and if you take the three games away where he played by himself without Montgomery, and you look at the fancy points per game between Bijon and Gibbs, Bijon is at 18.3, Gibbs is at 17.6. So they're neck and neck. I don't want my guy to ever come off the field. I know I'll get 50 more carries from Bijon than I will, Jamir Gibbs. And I will be slightly less stressed when I see a quarter where I don't see my player. So that split the difference. I get it. You went CD Lamb. I had them at six on my rankings. Overall or at wide receiver? Overall. Okay. That makes sense. I'm going to go with, it's between Jefferson and Gibbs. I'm going to go Justin Jefferson at four. You know, tried and true, reliable, consistent.

I'm going to take the shot on Jefferson knowing exactly what I'm going to get. It will be a risk. It was a risk last year. Sam Darnold was supposed to be the sacrificial baby. Didn't really matter to Justin Jefferson. He was still excellent. Became the prodigal son. Yeah. And now we're going to have a new quarterback most likely in Mr. McCarthy. So I'll go Jefferson at five. Cool. I'll take Jemir Gibbs. Mike's just getting the leftovers. So I mean, these are fun exercises because the weight of the first round pick is massive. Yet if you're, I mean, if you're a season fantasy football player, you know you don't win in the first round, not very often, but you certainly can set your team way back if you, if you whiff on the first rounder. So being where we are of getting Gibbs.