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Main show · August 9, 2023

Top 10 Quarterbacks + Sneaky Good QB Values - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/9

RSSAug 9, 2023 · details onlyYOUTUBEAug 9, 2023 · transcript indexed
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Top 10 Quarterbacks + Sneaky Good QB Values | Fantasy Football 2023 - Ep. 1435

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Episode notes

Mike is branded the Fantasy Hitman, Jason's ritual head-nod and ignored Peloton milestone rides become production lore, and Anthony Richardson is described as a Greek-god/Cam Newton hybrid.

Inside the episode

69 passages
27:39 ↗

three years ago since we've seen Deshawn Watson playing at a truly high level and I mean a part of that is back then he wasn't he wasn't running like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen but you know he constantly racking up at least 400 rushing yards and a good pile of rushing touchdowns is that still part of his game now that he's you know that far removed from it he'll be turning 28 not saying like he's in the age range where it can still be there but is that part of how he wants to play the quarterback position. And so I just, I'm in the middle of you two guys, of I have him ranked at QB10, leaving the margin that could, he certainly could bounce back. But where he is going in drafts, which is, it's a bit of a discount for a quarterback who could do, who could be a top five quarterback, I'm still taking my, my fantasy bets and placing him on different quarterbacks.

28:35 ↗

In six games last year, he was on the exact same rushing pace he had been on for all of his previous seasons in Houston, which was about 500 yards rushing. I mean, with 551, 413, 444, and then last year he was on pace for about 500. And look. I do think it's a really tough situation for fantasy managers because we've always said this on the show. If you don't want to draft the guy, don't draft the guy. If you've got a personal vendetta against him, if you simply want to draft players you enjoy rooting for, like, go do it. I mean, that's always been the case. It's a hard thing to like, like, we're never going to draw that line for you because there's like a lot of players in the NFL with various histories and decisions they've made and things that have played out in the court of public opinion.

29:20 ↗

That's not my job is to tell you whether you should root for him. My job is to tell you what I think he's going to do on the football field. And that's what we're trying to break down. And I genuinely think Deshaun Watson might be the fantasy MVP this year. I mean, the Cleveland Browns. But you might not have them on your team because you might not want that. I mean, that's fine. The Cleveland Browns are certainly banking on it. They. gave him, what was it? Bank is the right word. Bank is the right word. They gave him $200 plus million, like the Deshaun Watson. They actually bought him a bank. They said you now are the owner of this banking system. I mean, that's part of the storyline here. That's part of why I'm very confident in Deshawn Watson's performance on the field. He's 27 years old. They weren't the only team pulling up the Brinks truck to Deshawn Watson. They were the only one pulling it up.

30:06 ↗

with like it was all in the in the actual they're the ones who almost completely destroyed the quarterback yeah i mean they guaranteed it all but there were lots of teams that it was really obvious that like the falcons yeah the falcons and other other teams are interested in like it's kind of a a known commodity in the game and so unless there is an aspect like jason brought up where like literally the mental uh impact of what is transpired has a on the field impact for the rest of his career, which, I mean, maybe that happens. Good camp so far from what I've read. I don't know if you've seen anything different. No, I have been coming around a little bit because of the reports from camp, that he has looked really good, that he's connected with these wide receivers. He's got a good connection with Elijah Moore out of the backfield. Camp reports have been positive. So I want to, that's where I say I want to see it in front of a crowd in preseason. And I will adjust my rankings up if he looks good in the preseason.

31:06 ↗

I guess we missed like a Green Gots joke with the bank situation for Voldemort. Or maybe we didn't. I mean, that comes from Kyle. I had no idea what you were talking about, but it's nerd stuff. Yeah, it's nerd stuff. Yeah. Please don't bring that up in front of me. Okay. I'm too cool. Yeah. No, I get to play any D&D this past week. No, we did some jackbox, though. All right. Daniel Jones at number eight. What? Well, he finished last year as... This is four point passing touchdown ranks. That is true. He finished last year as the quarterback nine. And do not draft Daniel Jones. Don't do it. I know he's here. I know he's our quarterback eight. But if I may just interject for a moment, you don't want this. Don't you ever want to like order something weird from the menu?

31:57 ↗

You know what I mean? You go to a place and you know that you know what they have is really good. But then you're like, what's that? Fried octopus? Yeah, let's give it a rip. Isn't Daniel Jones the weird thing on the menu? Yeah. And then next thing you know, you're eating. Well, look. Did you just take a bite of something? I had the salmon skin in my mouth, which is Daniel Jones. Oh, no. Salmon skin. That's what he is ordering the salmon skin off the menu? Absolutely. And if you haven't had salmon skin and I have, it's not good.

32:28 ↗

It's bad. Just like Daniel Jones for fantasy. So explain to somebody who would be confused by what you're saying and your number nine ranking of Daniel Jones. So on the course of the season, Daniel Jones has a very unique ability to score a lot of fantasy points in bunches. He had 700 rushing yards last year. And if you could do that in fantasy, you're going to end up with a ton of fantasy points. He finished last year as the quarterback nine. You go, well, that's fantastic. He has an F. The quarterback 9 has an F grade in our consistency, not like a C where it's like, oh, he was disappointing. You don't pass the class with an F. No, only 29% of his games were games you were happy with last year. Now, when those happened, they were awesome. I mean, he win you a week. He can, you know, rip off a 70-yard touchdown run and have a great game.

33:21 ↗

Daniel Jones is a wonderful streamer. Daniel Jones is great in best ball. If you want to take that upside magma game ability that he does have and you don't have to make the start-sit decisions and or if he got off to a nice opening to the schedule. But week one, he plays against the Dallas Cowboys. So you're starting him week one. Last year, two games against the Cowboys. He was a quarterback 20 and the quarterback 20. I don't want to start that week once. That's almost a do not draft then. He is a do not draft. I mean, if you're in a two quarterback league where you're looking at the lower tier guys that are going to be your quarterback two, okay, maybe you want that volatility and upside that he has and you have to draft, you know, worse quarterback. So Daniel Jones is in the conversation. So maybe we call him streaming Daniel Jones because maybe that's what he is. Yeah, that is what he is. He's a streamer. Daniel Jones is a really good streamer. Which is also where you find.

34:13 ↗

salmon, salmon skin, in the stream. Ah, yes, very nice. He was a lot better fantasy-wise over the second half of the season. He was, I mean, you've got to remember everything that happened for the New York Giants. This was a brand new coaching staff. You had Brian Dable come in who has received a good amount of credit for turning Josh Allen or helping to mold Josh Allen from the really raw quarterback prospect who was bad at football into. an elite quarterback, one of the best in the league. So you get the second year of that for Daniel Jones learning in this system. I'm more optimistic on what Daniel Jones could do this year. Darren Waller's going to help. Darren Waller, and that was the next point of the weapons, the passing weapons for the giants. It was an absolute disaster last year. Everyone kept getting hurt. You had Sterling Shepard was the de facto number one. He.

35:07 ↗

He tears his ACL. You have Wondale Robinson, who was the second round pick and you were waiting and waiting, had one game breakout, and then he was out for the year. The addition of Darren Waller, I think, is huge for what Daniel Jones can get done in the passing game. And then if you're still getting 5 to 600 rushing yards with Daniel Jones with rushing touchdown upside, I think that there is a world where Daniel Jones takes that F. and turns it into maybe like a B minus. I do want to give, like we've made some jokes about the little giants. Right. Because they have a lot of small slot receivers on this roster. However, Darren Waller is humongous. Isaiah Hodgins is 6'4 and was a part of the run that Mike is talking about. Yes. Who has been lauded in camp. Darius Slayton.

35:59 ↗

He's a bigger downfield threat. Jalen Hyatt, six foot. They do have a bunch of guys that can run down the field and make big plays. And Daniel Jones, you know, his connection with Darius Slayton historically, you know, he pops on certain weeks, like you said. So I think it's a streaming consideration. I wouldn't want to draft him and then bench him because, oh gosh, I got to hold him through the Dallas game. Yeah, that part is unfortunate. But let's look at the Justins. Let's move on. I love the Justin's this year. Justin Fields. Justin Herbert coming in at 7 and 6 on our quarterback rankings being drafted one spot apart in fantasy drafts right now. And we've got them ranked right around here. These guys are going to win you your league. These are the two best picks, in my opinion, for 2023.

36:48 ↗

At the quarterback position? Yes, at the quarterback position. So you're fully in on Justin Fields. They add DJ more to the roster another year in the system. Darnell Mooney is being added back to the roster as well. Chase Claypool might be added to the roster. You know, honestly, I think I think Claypool, like I would never, I would never even touch him with a thousand foot pole in fantasy. But having him there does help. Yes, it does. Justin Fields because we all know what this is going to be. Chase Claypool is going to have like 35 targets this year. And 31 are going to be inside the five-yard line on some sort of like jump ball, screen pass, fade. And he's athletic enough to make a few of those plays. And look, let's not, you know, Colcomette, big contract. Yeah, Colcombeau got paid. Saxon turnovers have been a huge issue for Justin Fields. More money has been placed on Justin Fields.

37:46 ↗

in terms of winning MVP than any other quarterback. He took this many sacks last year. That's going to. Look, you can't take that many sacks and not end up. He needs to rip it. On an IR. Like, you're going to get hurt. Because he happened last year. Remember, he basically was like, oh gosh, he's out. And then he'd like limp onto the field, like barely alive and then play another play and then limp back to the huddle. Like, They have to protect them. They're trying to do that. They're trying to invest in the offensive line a little bit. They did, yeah. So can he take a step forward as a passer? This is what you've been talking about. He can. Right now, the camp reports have been back and forth. He'll have a good day. He'll have a bad day. And he needs to take that progression forward as a pastor in order to really elevate up into the tier of a Jalen Hertz style quarterback, do what Josh Allen did.

38:44 ↗

Because he has that rushing baseline, that otherworldly baseline, not like, oh, he's got, you know, where he's going to run. It's not from this world. 400. Yeah, it's from another world. It's from other worlds. You know, he can rush for a thousand yards. He can rush for well more than that. When he came on. 1700. I got to tell you this. Yeah. There's an eight game strides in the middle of the season, six or 15. He's on pace for 1,712 rushing year. I did. It's not a thousand. He said, I'm going to do it myself. It's almost double that. So sorry, go on. So when you have that level of a baseline, you can do things that other people can't. You add DJ more, you get Darnel Mooney back. And all of a sudden, if you add passing to his.

39:29 ↗

galaxy you know how just his rushing is out of this galaxy oh boy keep going um got anything else for us there i left digress i left last season i left last season saying i have to remember that justin fields is like my my guy that justin fields is the most important welcome aboard And somehow I've kind of forgotten that. We statted these guys out. I was a little disappointed with where he landed in my stats. But all that being said, remember, when they made that change to really use him as a mobile quarterback, he was the quarterback three, that rest of the way. And that was a long stretch. He was scoring more than Jalen Hertz scored, more than Josh Allen scored during that point. So the fact that you're not grabbing him in the second round or the third round,

40:24 ↗

he could be the quarterback one on the season and be someone you draft a little bit later. Now, in order for him to do that, he does have to take that step forward, passing the ball. I am less confident he will do it than I was last year in Jalen Hertz. Jalen Hertz, I had full confidence he was going to do it. With fields, I'm like, he might. But the nice thing is he doesn't have to to still be a good pick where he's going. He just has to if you want him to be the number one quarterback overall. Yeah, I mean, he's sitting there. 46 overall, 44 overall, 48 overall on different platforms right now. So I think everybody sees the value there. Look, it's been bad before with Justin Fields, but we had a good long stretch where the rushing baseline was enough to give you a guarantee every week, and that's what you need. So Justin Herbert, the other Justin, you know,

41:24 ↗

Last year looked like it was going to be wheels up for him. So, I mean, like he's his own case against himself is that everything can look really great for a player. And then some injuries and, you know, Brandon Staley, right? I mean, I got that name right, right? Yeah, Coach Staley. Like, this is a hot seat coach. Like, they don't win this year. He's gone. They don't win the beginning of the year. He could be gone. The kind of public opinion right now out of Los Angeles is like great roster, great team. Bad coach. And so that could be something that holds them back because they should be a winning football team. They should be competing for a Super Bowl. They added Quentin Johnson, huge help for Justin Herbert. Keenan Allen. Keenan Allen is a great player that will hit an age cliff. So if you want to find some potential problems, like if he gets hurt again, if he's not the guy that he has been historically, that could be a problem. But right now.

42:22 ↗

You know, Justin Herbert has everything he needs, and then you add in Kellanmore, offensive coordinator, and you don't really find flaws there. Now, he's a pocket passer. So could you get into a game, and he throws one touchdown, and Echler rushes two in, and they win the ball game, but you don't win your fantasy week? Yeah, that can happen. Yeah, the pocket passers are tough, but he did have 300 rushing yards two years ago. And then last year... broke his ribs. And through the ball, you know, he would take the snap and then it's out of his hand. Take the snap out of his hand. I don't know how much of that was the lack of weapons when Mike Williams was injured when they lost Jalen Guyton when Keenan wasn't there. And it was just like, and they also had offensive line problems. How much of it was the broken ribs? How much of it was Lombardi's terrible offensive system? But I see all of that changing.

43:13 ↗

this season. The fact that you're going into the year with Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston, and Palmer, Palmer is good for being a wide receiver 3-4. He isn't the dude that's going to step up, but they've got a really nice receiving core. Add Gerald Everett in the red zone, add Parham. Like, this is a super offense, and we have to remember how last season started for Herbert. I mean, he came out. First game, he was a top five quarterback, second game, breaks his ribs, has a hard time, loses Keenan Allen. It wasn't a good season. It was week two that that happened? Yeah, I believe it was in the Kansas City Chiefs game on Thursday night football, if my memory holds up. Yeah, September 16th. So, you know, and so you look at what he did in his career, comes out 31 passing touchdowns as a rookie that's outrageous. The next year, 38.

44:10 ↗

just goes north. And then last year, injuries to his core, both his receiving core and his core, has a down year, only throws 25 touchdowns. It's not happening this year. He's awesome. It does show you, though, that you can go out and throw for 699 pass attempts for 4,700 yards, and you can still end up the quarterback 11 and hurt people. Like that is the, that is touchdowns. It's all touchdowns. It's a pocket passer predicament, as they say. Yeah, I mean, you look, this last year, 4,700 yards. That's absolutely fine. It's just, did he throw 35 or 25 touchdowns? And this year, I think with the receiving core, he's throwing 35 plus touchdowns. So you had fields rushing baseline. You have Herbert. They're going back to back. Now you have two more quarterbacks, maybe a tier above, also going back to back, also with that disparity in what they provide on the field, potentially. Joe Burrow at 5 and Lamar Jackson at 4.

45:11 ↗

So, you know, pocket passer and Joe Burrow, great weapons, throws the ball a ton. Jamar Chase is an elite touchdown score. Lamar Jackson, you know the rushing baseline is going to be there. We're wanting him to take a step forward as a passer. He has not had a wide receiver room this strong in a while. How strong is it? That is a really fair question to ask. Like, unfortunately. You can go into the season and say, hey, man, they gave him O'Dell Beckham, and they gave him Zayflowers, and Rasha Bateman's going to be back. But I think it's more fragile than it appears right now. Like, Bateman's still dealing with injury. Thankfully, the latest report running on the sideline, hopefully back soon. But it is pretty fragile. Like, you've got a rookie that's a smaller rookie in Zayflowers. We like him. He's not going to be able to do it alone. If Beckham's over the hill and Bateman's hurt, you're thin again at wide receiver, like right away. Yeah, you, I mean.

46:07 ↗

But you also can't discount. Mark Andrews is the number one. So it's we need for Lamar Jackson, we need one of those wide receivers to hit. I don't need the full trio to be absolutely top tier wide receivers for Lamar Jackson to finally bounce back to what he was. But he's been essentially working with, you know, Mark Andrews. And then the wide receivers out there lately for the four Baltimore's, they haven't been able to get it done. If just Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews can get it done with the changes that I'm projecting for the offense for bringing Todd Monkin in, then I think Lamar Jackson is going to be in an absolute incredible fantasy pick. He's still going to run a ton. Like that's not going to go away when you, if you're like, oh, well, he's just, he's going to be throwing more. More throws turns into more scrambles for, for Lamar Jackson. We don't want, we don't want them doing the ground and pound.

47:06 ↗

And I think they're going to completely move away for that. So I'm very, very excited for Lamar Jackson. And then back to Joe Burrow, they have turned this into Joe Burrough's team. And back in 2021, it's, it's, it's pretty wild that the ride that the Bengals have gone on with this offense of 2021. It was kind of like they were testing it out of like. Well, we want to be a running team, but we also have Joe Burrow and these elite wide receivers. Let's just kind of dip our toes into the pool and we'll see if it works. And then they did a full cannonball into that water. And they said, Joe Burrow, this is your team. He went from 520 passing attempts in 16 games to over 600 in the same amount, 16 games. So Joe Burrow, calf withstanding.

47:55 ↗

Looks like he is of the pocket passers. He will be actually one of the safe ones. Finished it for last year, busted 18% of games. Yeah, he was great. He was phenomenal last year. But he's probably the quarterback I want the least at cost. I would love to have Joe Burrow in general. But he's a third round pick right now. And he's a third round pick because. the big three are going in the second round. He's pushed up to a level that is above where you were drafting Herbert last year, and Herbert was a disappointment because he didn't happen to throw 35 touchdowns. It's like you're chasing the big three quarterbacks. I didn't get one. Well, I'll just take Joe Burrow instead of waiting. And when you look at the players that are on, you know, on the clock, when you're on the clock and the players around where Joe Burroughs going, those are much more valuable than the players you're replacing when you grab Herbert.

48:47 ↗

at the back of the fourth. Yeah, I mean, if you're in the third round and you're taking Joe Burrow, you're passing on Jemir Gibbs. Yeah, you're passing. You're making decisions like that. Would you rather have Gibbs and Herbert? Or would you rather have, where's Herbert going right now? 410. So, or do you want Herbert and Dobbins? I'm sorry, or Burrow and Dobbins. Like, I'd rather have the Herbert Gibbs combination there. That's the gamble. You know, Lamar Jackson, it has been. It's been a while. It's been a while. I remind people, and I don't want people to think I hate Lamar Jackson. I don't. Lamar Jackson is a D&R consistency rankings. He's been 35% of the time in his last 17 played football games, 35% of the time that he gave you a usable metric at quarterback. So it is a projection for Todd Monkin.

49:39 ↗

For the change of pace, like they're, they're like snapping the ball with 25 seconds left on the clock right now in camp. Like they are beautiful. They're moving quick. But it is still a projection. Zay Flowers is a projection. Todd Monkin is a projection. Yeah. So like I'm just. You know what isn't a projection though, Andy? DeMarcus Robinson's not very good. Devin Duvernay is not that great. The number three target on the team last year was. Isaiah likely like they just didn't have any weapons and so yeah it's a protection that that Odell will be okay or that flowers will be okay or that but they're all better than what they had like I mean I you think back I mean Beckham might not be better than to Marcus Robinson we don't know that Beckham had a I would see the it's also finished it 15 the year before

50:29 ↗

Yeah, with injury too. Yeah, the injury. It's, to me, for Lamar Jackson. He's got a longer run of not being a top 10 quarterback. Yes. By a whole season than Deshawn Watson. Okay? Yeah. We're talking about, oh, he's missed all this time and not being a contributor. He's got three straight ears of not finishing as it inside the top 10. That is a very fair. And he's expensive now. Like he's getting, you just made the whole argument about the Herbert situation. Like Lamar Jackson is going directly next to Joe Burrough. So you, you were paying for the premium when you could take Herbert Lawrence Fields later. Yeah, I lean, I would, if I'm in a draft ADP wise, I'll probably go with Justin Fields. But the case for Lamar Jackson is the first three weeks of the season when he had Rashad Bateman.

51:22 ↗

healthy. He was the quarterback eight, quarterback one, quarterback one. In that time period, in three games, he threw 10 touchdowns because they desperately need someone else who is not Mark Andrews to do something for this team. The three weeks were magical. Rashad Bateman gets hurt in that game against Buffalo and then it's pretty much just a downward spiral from there. So you get, I think the baseline is 700 plus rushing yards for Lamar Jackson. Of course, an outlier season of plus over 1,000 rushing yards, that's certainly possible if they really are speeding up the pace of play. Pace of play is cannot be understated. Yes, understated. Because when you're looking, like, if a team is getting, I don't know, 8 to 10 more plays than other teams, like over the course of the season, that's a really, that's a big deal.

52:17 ↗

That's 10 plus opportunities compared to other people. So I think that the ceiling is still there. The ADP is not my favorite when there's, because I'm in on Herbert and Justin Fields with both of you guys. But I don't think Lamar Jackson is a bad pick at all. I think that this is the year that he does return to being a top five guy. He's going to have every opportunity this year with the offensive system and the fact they're trying to equip him. It's not like Isaiah likely win anywhere, another weapon in the offense. Three, two, one. Who is it? Jalen Hertz at three, Patrick Mahomes at two, Josh Allen at number one in our rankings. We got the stallion out there anywhere. Oh, excellent. Yeah, and you can put those three guys in any order you like. I don't have any problem. If you want to say Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback on the planet, he should be the number one. Great. If you want to say Josh Allen was before the elbow injury, lapping the field and should absolutely be the number one quarterback.

53:18 ↗

Great. Jalen Hertz has the best weapons imaginable is the youngest and still progressing could be better than he's ever been. And maybe, maybe he does, has to do something in the fourth quarter for a couple games. Let me say this, though. I do believe that Allen and Hertz moderately safer than Patrick Mahomes. Alan and Hertz have the rushing capability. I love. love. Like you can say what you want about James Cook, whether you think he'll be consistent or not in the offense. He helps. I mean, his pass catching is why he's part of this office. Yeah, he's a good pass. He's going to help Josh Allen. Dalton Kincaid, another report. I mean, it took him like, I don't know, 10 practices to drop a pass. This morning, the report is that he is the full trust of Josh Allen. They're going to run two tight-in sets where he's the pass catcher. You've got Diggs and Babe Davis. So like Josh Allen is being equipped.

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