Fantasy Football - Explain Yourself! Debates + UDK RELEASE DAY! - Podcast for 6/1

We looked up this stat. Wide receivers who have not hit 50 receptions through the first four years to go up to hit, say, 70 receptions. A bet you and I made. Yeah. Only one player has ever done it in the history of the NFL. That is Mike Williams, Big Mike, who was drafted as a top 10 pick, had multiple times with nine or more touchdowns, and still only hit wide receiver 17 or better once in his career. You have Alec Pierce as your wide receiver 17. Andy, sprain yourself! It was a fun year last year for Alec Pierce. I mean, certainly fun for him.

This is a player that, you know, basically capitalized on the opportunity, and that turned into a four-year, $115 million contract, 47 for 1,006 for Alec Pierce to finish as the wide receiver 23. He did miss two games due to a concussion. Sometimes we do this show and we get the things set up, and, you know, I have my ranking the way it is, and I start to dig into it, and I really want to dig in deep, and I want to be like, yes, I believe what I believe. And that's what happened. I prefer it that way. And that's what happened.

That's what happened here. I'm all the more convicted that the community at large has Alec Pierce far, far too low. Look, I know all the numbers around it, and you highlighted that it's rare for a player to go through, you know, the first four years, and then the reception totals go up, and that hasn't been, like, Alec Pierce's recipe for success in the NFL is the big play. He has had six-plus touchdowns and 20-plus yards per catch in back-to-back seasons. His average depth of target, 19 yards down the field. That's spicy. This one was crazy. 87% of his receptions were first downs.

87%. That's number one in the league with more than 75 targets. This is something you might not know about Alec Pierce as well, but he was tied for number one with the lowest drop rate in the NFL last year. 1.2%, lowest in the league, over 75 targets. But the case for Alec Pierce, look, there was a time, and it's, you know, it's not perfect apples to apples, but there was a time that we saw James Cook have high-efficiency performance numbers in Buffalo and get paid like a true bona fide number one running back. We were all like, is he that?

And then he went out and he basically delivered on what the team's investment was. This was a monstrous contract that Indianapolis chose to give to a guy with under 50 catches on the season. But I watched almost every single one of the connections between him and Daniel Jones. I had him on my fantasy team last year, and this is a player that's been great at the NFL level for a long period of time. Why will 2026 be different? Number one, the setup for Alec Pierce, dramatically better. Michael Pittman, he's gone. He leaves behind 80 catches, 784 yards, and seven touchdowns.

Will there be other beneficiaries of his departure? Of course. But with him traded away and the team investing, I mean, let's not, this was not just like, we want to keep you around. This is a paying you to be one of the highest paid receivers in the game of football contract, $115 million. They paid him like a true number one, not just a deep threat, like one of the top receivers. I think there's a chance I'm not bullish enough with my projections of Alec Pierce. I think that there's a chance that, you know, he had 1,000 yards on 84 targets.

That's a number that most top-tier receivers will take 120, 130, 150 to get to 1,000 yards. He missed two games, by the way. I mean, his numbers are a little bit, he's the perfect candidate for that, like, you played well, but you missed a couple games, so your fantasy finish was a little bit lower. Like, that just makes you a sneaky candidate to begin with. He doesn't have to become a 120-catch guy to dominate for fantasy. He needs to add two to three short to intermediate targets per game, which are all being abandoned by Michael Pittman. And so, to me, the difference is in our rankings, I'm looking at this, you guys have targets at about 90, 94, 16% target share.

I've got him at 105, 20% target share, seven touchdowns. Nothing about my projection is out of bounds. He can grow into a 20 to 21% target share. He just has to change the player he's been for the first four years of his career. Would you agree with that? I would say that they have to utilize him in more ways than they've used him in the first four years. Not just being a deep, because he has basically spent his entire career just being a deep threat. That is true, although there are, I mean, that's the stats in whole, like you summarize his career.

But when you go watch the games one by one, you also see him getting targets where, look, your yards per catch number is a reflection, not just of air yards. There were in routes. There were slant routes. There were plays that they were turning to him for first downs where he caught the ball and he ran with it. They weren't all isolated, you know, even though the averages were there, and that's what he's been as a majority. What I saw in film was a player able to prove that he could do other things. And to me, the numbers say that everybody else believes that.

You know, if you only believe he's a deep threat, you do not pay him this money, ever. You just can't do it. And so to me, he is like, I asked these guys before, I'm like, where is he actually sitting in terms of ADP? And it's wide receiver 40. Yeah, he's in the eighth round. For a player. That doesn't cost you anything. He already, I don't mind that at all. No, no, no. I mean, look, wide receiver 40 is outrageous to me. The efficiency numbers were probably outrageous last year, but they're pretty close to what you could do. His yards per catch is going to come down.

His targets are going to go up. He's going to score six to seven times, if not more, in this offense. And he's going to outpace the wide receiver 40. I just feel like that's a guarantee when you take the season that he had, the money he was paid, the departure of Pittman. The only thing that can really detour this in a significant way is Daniel Jones not being himself. If Daniel Jones is not there, you got a problem with Tyler Warren. You got a problem with Josh Downs. And guess what? Jonathan Taylor, you got a problem too, because this offense is not going to function without Daniel Jones.

That's where I'm at with Alec Pierce. I feel like he's a low investment, capital-wise, high reward with upside to play into the contract. I do not. I don't have my projection for Alec Pierce statted like you do. I really don't. I think he's going to continue to play the role that he has played so well. He's so good at stretching the field, opening things up, getting deep passes. So I think they'll keep him there. However, when you are in the eighth round, the back of the eighth, he's like on the 8-9 turn right now in ADP. The wide receiver 40, it costs you nothing.

And there is clearly an avenue and a money and an investment path towards he is like he's their alpha one. That's maybe what they want to do. That's what I think he'll be. I have zero problem. Like I love trying to dunk on you here and be like, you're so stupid. But the draft cost protects me. But the draft cost is like I will be taking a lot of Alec Pierce if he stays that low in drafts. Mediocre Signing of the Week. Oh, oh. Juju Smith-Schuster has been added to the Giants roster as well. Oh, man. What are you doing, baby?

Beckham? I mean, this is – now the red flags can fire off into the sky around Malik neighbors. I'll tell you what, man. Antonio Brown is somewhere. Like he is doing the Michael Keaton Batman gift right now. OBJ and Mooney. He doesn't know where he is. Juju, OBJ, and Mooney. This is not – I mean, that's not going to be the roster come start. No, I mean, look. Malachi Fields doesn't have to compete with much. Oh, my God. Darius Slayton is there. The vibes. The vibes are bad. But so back down to Alec Pierce. What do you think about Alec Pierce?

No, I'm – I just – while you were talking, I went in – I bumped him up a little bit. Oh, that's the highest compliment you can pay me. It's – I'm moving him down. To affect our consensus rankings? It's – he's a difficult player because you look just, you know, based off of career, projecting when huge jumps are going to happen, it can be difficult. Especially when a player is this established. But we're in weird territory of, like, historically all the comps, the Mike Williams stat. But, yeah, all of that exists. But also, he just got that contract. So, it's – and NFL teams screw up contracts.

You want to know who had 33 and 37 receptions his first two years in the NFL? Who's that? It's not three years, but it's two – What about four years? Nico Collins. Nico Collins didn't do anything. Oh, I like that counterpoint. I mean, there are players – Robert Woods is another one – where you just kind of – you're hiding in plain sight in the offensive system. I don't know. I've never seen a greater endorsement of a true wide receiver one than what they did this offseason. They shipped off the guy that was supposed to be their one and then paid him $115 million.

I think the only problem with that is that when they shipped off Pittman – I know that they paid Pierce, so their actions definitely said. This is a giant part of our team. But the GM and the head coach, they were just talking so much about Josh Downs and how he's the one that's going to step up. He's going to earn more targets. And, of course, you've got Tyler Warren there, who I still think that's their number one receiving option this year. It's just $84 million guaranteed. Yeah. To give a player that and then give him another 17% target share or so –

I will say this. – would be a criminal misuse of your resources. I believe, Kyle – I'm pretty sure this is right. He was an unrestricted free agent, right? He was like the bell of the ball on the free agent market. Yes, he was. So he's going to get a big contract. Right. He's going to. If you look at the Colts who just traded the future – Why? Why is he going to get a big contract? Because there were no wide receivers on the market. Oh, that's why. The free agent market for wide receivers was just garbage. Darnell Mooney's a deep threat.

He didn't get $115 million. But my point is you couldn't lose this player. If you're the Colts and you already traded Pittman, you can't lose Alec Pierce. So I do think there are some of that. I don't believe that was the order it happened. Yeah. It was the opposite order. They signed him and they traded him. They paid before they traded Pittman? Yes. Okay. Yeah. I'm going to lean into the contract. I mean that's – The highest paid free agent in the history of the NFL? Yeah. That'll affect things. That wide receiver? It – I mean and that's what you got to lean on, honestly, is the fact that they will change

things. They will get that target share up. He seems like a player that should thrive. If you can utilize him properly, he can take – I think he can have a higher target share and be a big piece of the offense. All right. That's it for me and Alec Pierce, Mike. All right. I think you get to set Jason up here. All right. Jason Moore over here. Dumb-dumb. Oh, I love this one. Oh, gosh. I love this one. You're the perfect guy to set this up. Absolute dumb-dumb because Jason – What a cool setup. Well, because look, Jason's over here.

He's just like at any moment, Kevin White – oh, no. I'm sorry. Not Kevin White. Oh, no. He's like Michael Floyd. Oh, no. I'm so sorry. I'm so sorry, everyone. I'll get it right. Corey Davis. Oh, just at any moment, any moment, Roma Dunze made the top 10 pick. Cool. Roma Dunze is already being destroyed by his depth chart. Colston Loveland. Kevin White. Corey Davis. I mean, it is. Those are literally the only – in the history of what we've done, those are the only people he can come up with who are drafted that high who weren't great for fantasy.

So he brings us. Darius Hayward Bay. Devontae Parker. Le'Veon Treadwell. Devontae Parker? Yes, he was. No, you just said Darius Hayward Bay. Oh, he was a top 10 pick. Was he really? Yeah, brother. Oh, my God. You should pick up a history book because NFL players bust all the time in the first round. I'm just saying, there's already better players on this team right now. The coach, Ben Johnson, has already said, quote, I am buying Luther Burden stock right now. Last year, Roma Dunze ran 120 routes with Luther Burden on the field. In those routes, Roma Dunze was putting up a spectacular .81 yards per route run.

And if you want context for that, that's what Tyler Lockett was putting up on the Raiders. And yes, ladies and gentlemen, before you go and check, Tyler Lockett was, in fact, on the Raiders last year for part of this season, outproducing Roma Dunze. Adam Thielen on the Steelers, outproducing Roma Dunze. That was the one I forgot. I was like, he was on the Steelers. Yeah, he was. You don't have to look. He was there putting up more production than Roma Dunze on a per route basis. Jason, sway yourself. That was quite the introduction. This is so easy to explain. First of all, the yards per route run when they were on the field together, the beginning

of the year, Luther Burden didn't play that much. It was towards the end of the year when Luther Burden got on the field more because he was a rookie. That makes sense. It was also during the end of the year that Roma Dunze was injured. He was very injured. He literally didn't play the last five weeks of the season after trying to tough it out. I went back week by week by week, and I looked at the injury report, and I watched the film, and I remember having him. Let me remind people. Now, yes, you can talk about the busts at the top 10 drafted in the NFL, but there are

also really good players drafted in the top 10 at wide receiver for a reason. We never really laid out what you're explaining, just in the sense that Jason has him at 19. Mike has him at 31. You do have to explain what you're explaining. Yeah, I'm explaining why I have Roman Dunze. We have him 10 spots ahead of Mike. 10 spots ahead of Mike. 10 spots ahead of ADP. Right now, he's being drafted as the wide receiver 30 in the seventh round. Luther Burden is being drafted as the wide receiver 17 in the fourth round. So you're spinning up a lot to know that Burden is better.

But I want to remind people, and especially you, Mike, what happened last year. Because when Burden started the season not involved and Rome was healthy, Rome was the wide receiver three through the first month of the season. And it wasn't all touchdowns. We're talking 153 target pace. He was awesome. He got injured after week eight. So half the season is over. During that time, he was already on pace for 136 targets, 1148 yards, 12 touchdowns. He was really awesome. How awesome? Because, you know, busts is what you're throwing out. He's not good. Yeah. Except he was the wide receiver seven in points per game through the first half of the year.

That's not a bust. That's a top 10 drafted pick who was alpha man, who was doing everything for fantasy you wanted. And then he got injured. What happened after that? Well, he never had a full practice week the rest of the season, including once he came back into the playoffs. He was resting every Wednesday, resting every Thursday, barely practicing on Friday, going out there and playing like trash. I mean, after he was injured, 38% catch rate. He was on pace for 639 yards and three touchdowns. He also didn't play as many snaps. He was usually out there for 93% of the snaps when he was healthy.

And then all of a sudden, they're trying to monitor him, trying to relax this heel foot injury. And he's playing 70% of the snaps. Yeah, he wasn't that good because he was injured. Now, if he's healthy, if you're telling me I have to take a bet on whether Roma Doonze, who they did spin the number nine pick in the draft for, and for a reason. Everybody believed that this was a guy who was a top 10 NFL draft pick. It wasn't like they reached. It wasn't a shock in the draft where we're like, oh my God. Like, Darius Hayward Bay, that was like, oh, he's the fast speedster guy that got overdrafted.

Rome was expected to be a great wide receiver. However, my Felix score that, you know, I've talked about a lot and that has been so far looking really good for judging prospects has Rome as a 90th percentile prospect. He's not a bad prospect. He's not a bus player. And what he did in his sophomore year was dominate for fantasy until he injured his foot. And then he sucked. And then you get excited about other people. If you're telling me in the seventh round I get to take a guy who's being drafted at wide receiver 30, who has the ability to come out and truly dominate, I know Rome's going to be on the field.

Two wide receiver sets, he's going to be on the field. He is their alpha one. Now, I'm not saying anything against Luther Burden that he's not good. I love the film. He moves different. He's great. He is not as good a complete wide receiver as Rome right now. They're still talking about how, like, in that comment, you know, oh, I'm buying stock. That's great. Except if you listen to the whole thing, he's talking about how he's really worked on his route tree and we're starting to see some routes that we can add to it. That's great. But he's got to do that.