Championship Week Worries + Underdog Tips, TNF Preview - Fantasy Football Podcast for 12/28

You've got a gentleman by the name of Julius Chestnut. Hot Dog King. So you're not really looking at Tennessee. You're not looking at Tennessee. But the real question people are going to have is the running back replacement. It's two questions. The first question is who is it? Is it Hassan Haskins? Is it Julius Chestnut? They're both active last week. Hassan Haskins had the more snaps, had a few more carries. But I believe on the course of the season, I think he's at 18 carries. So these are two unknowns. Julius Chestnut did not take a snap last week. Right, but he was active, right? Yeah. Well, I mean, he's showing at 0%. I mean, he has a stat line, which is just all zeros. Hassan Haskins will get the majority of the work. Yes, I agree with that. He's a fourth round draft pick. He's 6228. And if you need to throw a dart, look, it's not.

it's not likely to land where you want it to land. I mean, Dallas's defense has been their top 10 on the year against running backs. They're top three in the last six weeks. And guess what? Malik Willis is not a threat in the passing game. They could put 11 men in the box. Yeah. They just, they don't, they will not even have a cornerback active. I mean, he, he's averaging Malik Willis eight completions and three starts. So they're, they are extremely limited. Like the options for that offense are limited. Hassan Haskins, you know, if he gets 15 carries, 12 carries to 15 carries, maybe you end up with, you know, 60, 70 yards, probably not a touchdown. Would you play Haskins alone, or would you play Zach Moss? I would probably play Zach Moss. Okay. But I would also seek.

a counselor to help me through. But I feel like if you're willing to put Zach Moss in over Haskins, there's not many options that you're. You could go Haskins because you don't know what he is yet compared to Moss. Exactly. I would personally go Haskins over Moss simply because both teams have a quarterback that shouldn't be starting, you know, as an NFL caliber starter at this point in their careers. And so low over unders for both teams. bad vibes. I'm going to take the guy that... You also hate Zach Moss. Well, that's what I'm saying. I'm going to take the guy who has a little bit of talent versus none. Cordero Patterson against Arizona. I'll take I'll take Patterson as well. I mean, I'm in this world where I'm bidding on Haskins right now and I would probably have to start him.

in my lineup. So, I mean, here's the question. Mike and I are thrilled that we're not in the title game and have to face this decision. Uh, what we have it in Dino Jr. literally. Oh, yeah. It's a dynasty team. We had Derek Henry and they drafted Haskins and we thought he's the clear backup. And here we are now. We have, we're like, okay, well, we've got the backup. Okay. So you play the backup. Let me ask this question. Would you start Hassan Haskins or Tyler Boyd? That is literally, yeah, yeah. That's my question of Tyler Boyd in a large over-under game on Monday night football, but he's been banged up, got a broken fingee, or Hassan Haskins, who is guaranteed to touch the ball more times. What a great question. What are the deucers think of this one? I think Tyler Boyd. I think Tyler Boyd. My waivers aren't set up for that. Oh, no. I'm freaking out.

I told you there was some theater to be had. I mean, this is tough. Yeah. Hassan Haskins will not get every single touch in the backfield. That will not happen. So I just don't, I mean, they're supposed to score 14.8 points. What's the implied point total for the Bengals? That game has a 49 total. And they're one and a half point underdogs from what I most recently saw at home. Right. And the Titans haven't hit their team implied total in five weeks. Yeah. So if you're looking at, you know, the likelihood of, you know, the goal line could go to Malik already, right? So you might not even have. What goal line? Okay, let me start the if. If goal line, then maybe Malik.

Whereas at least with the Bengals, they're probably got an implied point total of almost 23, 24 points. What sucks a lot is the matchup. Like if this happened to be a Thursday matchup where it's the Titans versus, you know, one of the worst teams against fantasy running backs, I would be more optimistic. At this point, it is you got to be in a... really desperate place, which I'm sure there are teams out there. So you could do worse because Haskins projects to get the volume, but it is really, really dicey. On the other side, things are looking interesting. Zeke, he has scored in over a million straight games. Oh, no, eight, top 16 running back in eight straight. I'm sure he scored in all eight of them. Tony Pollard didn't practice on Monday or Tuesday.

We still have the team saying he's playing in this football game. So the short week and the team saying that, are you afraid of Tony Pollard? Because, you know, the team has said he's going to play. We also got word yesterday that Tony Pollard was going to practice. And then they're a practice report. And then he did not. So I'm not listening to the team at this point. If he is, if Tony Pollard is active, I am probably playing him. Oh, I'm definitely playing him. This is a brutal matchup for Tony Pollard. You've got a chance at a real down game. The Cowboys are kind of playing for something here. Like technically, if they win this game, they have a better shot at the number one seat. But it's pretty much a really long odds path for any change. So you guys seem much more concerned about Pollard? I do. I just feel injured short week. And this is, I mean, who's the last running back who had?

I know Tony Pollard is a different class of running back, especially for fantasy, but the Tennessee Titans have just, they've been dominant against fantasy running backs, fifth on the season for schedule adjusted, seventh in the past six weeks. The last time, it's not an exploitable matchup. The last time that a running back had, let's say, more than one point greater than their average, as far as team, team running backs average, the last time they outscored their average by a point was week one. Man. So almost every week they are below their average, and usually by a significant margin. That being said, I still really like Zeke in this matchup because of Tony Pollard's injury. If, you know, four or five carries go from him to Zeke, the 10 point, you know, favored matchup here, the fact that short fields from Malik Willis will.

almost undoubtedly result in a touchdown. Yeah, that's fair. I don't see Zeke getting out of this game without a touchdown. So he's got to be in your lineup. Yeah, I mean, I guess the question to me is if you're bringing up concerns about Pollard, this is the seventh best running back on the year. Yeah, no, it's, I'm saying I'm playing him. So it's like if he's active, are you playing it? Yes. Okay. I think that's all that matters, really. Yeah, that's fair. Just adjusting my expectations of where I would rank him. C.D. Lamb has been on fire. He's 91 for 1,2008 on the season. You're playing him. For sure. Dalton Schultz has been, he's had some struggles recently in production. You know, this team, they obviously have two dynamic running backs. The last two weeks, four targets, two catches, three catches, hasn't been in the end zone since week 12.

He's actually only scored in two games this year. He is the tight end 18 on the year. I know we spent some time without Dak, but it seems like he's a boom-buss type of tight-end right now, not a consistent threat. Yeah, he was for a stretch of games when Dak came back, you know, seven targets, eight targets, had a game with 10 targets in there. Now Gallup is healthier and... The offense is clicking in ways where Dalton Schultz is simply a can-be-used piece, not a necessary piece for the offense. You're still going to play him. He's a much better option than, you know, the back half-tight-end ones because you're in a great offense. And the matchup is very good against Tennessee who really can't guard any receiving option. So I like the matchup for Dalton Schultz this week, but you're just kind of hoping that, you know, that he ends up with...

seven or eight targets. And if you have to really bet on that, you're betting that they're going to be up and not have to throw the ball a ton in this game. Are you, you're a Dalton Schultz manager. Are you considering a player like Tyler Higby after last week's performance, the aforementioned situation with. I have not personally considered that. But are you now? So I did, I did pause and think. Or Dawson Knox or. Dawson Knox isn't available. Not in our league. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I'm just, yeah. We need to pause so I can check my waivers. I would say that if I had Dawson Knox and Dalton Schultz on my roster, I would take Dawson Knox. I think that that's a game where you could have 60. What about Dalton Knox? Whoa. But in that that Bill Sincey game, I want pieces. I think you could have 60 points scored in that matchup. And Knox has been on fire. But you're not dipping down to Conklin?

No, I'm not dipping down to Fant or Dulcich. No, I'm going to stick with the great offense and the better quarterback and the better talent in Schultz. You're not dipping down to Trimble. Tommy Trimble. Oh, definitely. Michael Pruitt. Now we're talking. Now we're talking. Ian Thomas. Oh, never Ian Thomas. That was too far. Dak, are you concerned about upside for Dak in this game? Are you confident playing him against the? I'd play him. Okay. The match is juicy. All right. All the rankings, they're up on the site. The Fantasy Footballers.com, the starts it tools up there week 17. Here we come. It's going to be very, very nerve-wracking for many of you, but we're here to help as much as we can. Mailbag. Mailbag, yes. So, Al, I did want to ask you, after that big discussion, we had about integrity and tanking.

You know, trying to position your team for an advantage in the rookie draft and trying to be integrous with your league mates, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Any changes to the way you approached your final matchup that may or may not have taken Bijon Robinson out of your hands? Yeah, I got major regrets. Okay, all right. Yeah. I wasn't sure where the line was, and I didn't want to cross it on the wrong side. So I played it safe, but I wish as the manager who had. the pick that became the 101 thanks to your victory, I would just like to say from the bottom of my heart, thank you for your integrity. Yeah. And it means a lot. It means a lot to the league. And you're a great man of honor. And I am publicly giving you praise on one of the largest sports podcasts in the world because of your great, awesome integrity and just real stand up honorable actions. Thank you. Thank you.

Piss off. Yeah, because I got Bisham, baby! Also, the league not really happy. Like, Jason's team is good. Adding, and that's a whole other layer now of, like, should the original manager of that pick still had it? That team's garbage. Yeah. That team could really use someone like Bijon. Owl's team. It's rebuilding. It could also use Bejohn. But adding Bejohn to Jason's team, like takes if, I mean, assuming that he is anything like we're projecting, it takes Jason's team from a, you know, playoff contending team to a championship contending team. I love that you're in that. Like it's, it's wild that swing. Like your team doesn't deserve him. Yeah, I mean, and now you get Roy Freeman with the number one pick.

All right, into the mailbag we go. Instagram question. I'm a big underdog. This is from Jay Minnis. I'm a big underdog. Should I maximize the stacks? So basically this question is another way to put it would be, what can I do to give myself the opportunity to overcome being an underdog through big performances, such as stacking a quarterback wide receiver, playing high upside players? Yeah. At the end of the day, right, if you play the quarterback that scores more fantasy points, it's just better for you, right? So that is true. But if you know you're the underdog, we did a great, and by we, I mean Matt DeSorbo, one of our awesome writers who does a lot of data work. Yeah, we did. Yes, we did that study because we made him do it. And thank you. But looking at the variance and is stacking matter? Does stacking only matter in baseball? Can it help in?

redraft leagues. And it did actually show that if you want to maximize output, stacking is valuable. You obviously are taking on more risk. But if you're an underdog and you've got to go up against the big dog, you snuck into the playoffs and you've lost a player or two and now you're going up against the number one seed, I would be looking at a stack. Mike, you exited the playoffs to a team that was. Brock Purdy and George Kittle. Yeah, I mean, I mean. You had all the, you know, the betting odds were certainly in your favor. The projection from the platform is I was like a 30 point favorite. Exactly. But then it just so happened that he played Brock Purdy and George Kittle in a two touchdown George Kittle week that turned into massive points for, you know, he doubled up on all those plays, put you out. So I would be doing this if I'm an underdog. And I'll be looking at for your, for your DST.

you need to go with an upside dst because there are there's upside ones and then there's safe ones like so for example last week the the uh i don't remember where people ended up but like the saints and the browns knowing that there would not going to be much scoring in that game it was going to be a run heavy script because of the weather both dsts coming into the weekend were safe for their floor But their upside was not great because you knew there wouldn't be dropbacks. There wouldn't be a lot of potential for quarterback sacks, for a sack fumble or an interception turning into a score. So you need to find the Giants. Yeah, sure. Like the Giants, their sack upside is tremendous. Their interception upside. Nick Bowles took, what, seven last week. Yeah, their interception upside is tremendous. Their touchdown upside is tremendous. The Giants are certainly the.

defensive choice. I mean, when you think about what Foles did last week, there were 10 plays that were huge for the defense, 10 separate plays that were point scoring plays for the defense. That's huge. That article you spoke of by Matt DeSorbo is on the website, the fancy footballers.com. It's called Stick to Stacking, exploring the classic boom-bust strategy. And you can read that. When you think about what you need to overcome as an underdog, you do look at your lineup and you say, wow, I really need a George Kittle to hit two touchdowns. And then you think to yourself, well, if I need that, well, he's going to get it from, it's going to come from Brock Purdy, right? Sometimes it feels like it's a better strategy to say, well, if I'm going to hit it here, let me just get the automatic correlation versus saying, well, now I need Baker to hit two and then I need Kittle to hit two in a separate event. That is the way you should look at it.

Just don't, you know, don't overplay this underdog idea. Sure. There's real underdog and then there's like margin for error underdog. Exactly. And just be careful. Sometimes Stefan Diggs, Devante Adams combined for like seven points in a week or something like that. Yeah. And then you would be killing yourself if you played too many Marquis Goodwin type of players. Agreed. All right. Into the voicemail questions. Hey, ball. Oh, man. So Tyler Algier, Brian Robinson, full point PPR. This one's really close. Alger plays Arizona. This is a, you know, Alger's workload has been massive. So has Brian Robinson's. Little bit of a question with the switch back to Carson Wins, I think, on game plan. Game is super important to the commanders. This is really, really close. I love Brian Robinson this week, but I love Tyler Alger this week.

So I'm going to go Robinson by a little bit. I really wish I could grab one of those guys from you. If you got extra, I'll take them. I agree with you. No, we would, but league integrity. Right. Yeah, okay. For the game. For the league. Yeah, that is really, really close. I find myself leaning the Algiers side. Oh, boy. Man. Is that just because you do the opposite of me? No. No, I rode with you, remember? Oh, you did? You switched. Yeah, no, the reason is because, you know, last week you had Algier going up against Baltimore. He finished as a running back one, and he did that without a touchdown. Now he gets Arizona. It just seems. It is super close. It really is. Yeah. I mean, he's a back-to-back RB one, Alger is. The only...

Here's where my hesitation went. Gibson's hurt. Cordero Patterson has had games where he gets going, and he's active. So my only thought there was, well, what if Patterson takes a few more snaps where Brian Robinson won't lose any? But the matchup, I mean, and it's also really, really good against the Browns on the ground. Yeah. Both matchups are great. It's really, the answer is both players are very much worth playing to me. Where do we have Robinson right now? I have Robinson a bit higher. Currently. But like you said, we all have him a bit higher right now. It's really, really tough. Very close. Tyler Algier on the season, you know, you had five targets last week. That's attractive. Four catches. It was a full PPR league, too. Yeah. So that's where it's like Robinson really doesn't get that work. Might get more of this game if Gibson's hurt. Yeah. I mean, Williams.

We'll still factor in. Where do you lean, Mike? Because Jason's saying he's slightly on the Alger side. I was leaning towards Brian Robinson, but then I forgot to the PPR aspect. So I think I'll go Alger there. All right. There was a follow-up, a couple follow-up questions related to Alger. Instagram question from Breezy. Alger or Judy? I would go Algeria there. Yeah, likewise. Luis wants to know, Mike, Tyler, Alger, Kenneth Walker. Oh, my goodness. The Kenneth Walker matchup is... The Jets. More challenging. But it's Kenneth Walker. He was the 20th running back last week, 31st the week before. It's been tougher sledding for him, but he had 26 attempts. He hasn't been in the end zone for a while. That's the problem. I lean Kenneth Walker there. I do as well. Really? I didn't know where you'd go there. I hate the matchup.

And I think Tyler Alger is... That a talent choice then? Yeah, I think Alger is better than where he was selected in the draft. But Kenneth Walker is, looks like a legit superstar. And you'd go Kenneth Walker over like a Miles Sanders then, too. Yeah, yeah. All right, voicemail. Hey, ballers, Chad Johnson, the Rio Ocho Cinco from St. Claude, Minnesota. Quick question in my championship game, do I start Gino Smith or Brock? Oh, man. So Brock Purdy or Gino Smith? The nasty boys. Yes. Here we go. Well. So Gino's against the Jets. I'm not playing Gino over Brock Purdy this week. No. I didn't like what I saw last week from Gino. Tyler Lockett is such a linchpin for the offense. He is the first down maker. What if he's back? Because there's a chance he plays. If he's back, then I will go Gino. If he's not back, I'm going Mike's

Stream of the week, Brock Purdy. Against Vegas. I have them back to back in my rankings, and I will conclude inside with Andy there that Tyler Lockett's the deal breaker here. The matchup is much worse for Gino Smith. If he doesn't have Tyler Lockett, then you didn't see anybody step up in his absence. You have an injury to Goodwin. I would go Brock Purdy. All right. We're going to wrap this thing up right now. A reminder, check those waiver wires. See if anybody. Important was dropped. A lot of people fighting for roster spots. I mean, your opponent, you know, if you're in a title game. And pay attention. If you're not in a title game, but you're in a keeper or dynasty league, look at who's getting dropped right now. People that are in the title game have one concern, in one concern only, that is to win this week. There's a chance a player of dynasty type of value could get dropped that you could pick up. If you're in a keeper, don't just disappear from your platform. This is why we're here.

A lot of discussion over the next few months is going to be related to Dynasty Leagues. It's going to be related to players with bright future. So make sure you check that out. Don't miss out on it. And then join us for our final party room today at 3 p.m. Pacific. 6 p.m. Eastern. That is on Spotify Live. You can listen right in the Spotify app. And if you want to participate, you can get the Spotify Live app. And Fantasychamps.com promo code free ring. Because you're going to need it. Get that trophy of the belt for the league. Be a hero for your league and get yourself a free ring while you're at it. Thanks for tuning in, everybody. We'll see you next time. Or we'll see you tonight. And pray for Jason. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.