Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - The Overreaction Episode w/Special Guest Chris Harris

in keeper leagues for the cheap because his value was down. And just a reminder for when we talked about Aaron Rogers, because we're talking about the Green Bay offense as a whole. This is the first year, the first year where Aaron Rogers has played the full year, that he was not a quarterback one, or the overall quarterback number one or number two. That's how... Sounds like his career is over.

The only time he didn't do that was when he broke the collarbone, missed time. So I fully expect Aaron Rogers to be back, and that just helps a guy like Eddie Lacey. All right, I'm going to give you a name of a guy who's being drafted too high, in my opinion, and will be drafted too high throughout the off-season and into draft season. And unfortunately, for all the BB fans out there, it's a guy.

named Blake Bortles, who's being drafted right now ahead of Russell Wilson, ahead of Carson Palmer, ahead of Drew Brees. He's the fifth quarterback off the board right now. He's going in the fifth round, and it's just playing too high for a guy who, listen, led the league in interceptions and fumbles. Okay? He is mistake prone still. He is growing, and I am by no means saying he's not going to become...

a great fantasy quarterback. I think he'll be a good fantasy quarterback next year. I do not think he will be in the same position where he is second in the league in passing touchdowns. I don't see all of these mental errors going away next season. And so I think that means regression from a total fantasy point standpoint, especially with the inefficiency we saw in the goal line for Jacksonville and the running game in the red zone. If you improve some of those things...

And he just takes a step back on a very hard to predict number. We've seen this so many times from quarterbacks. You could be, whether it's Peyton Manning throwing 50 or your Blake Bortles or Matt Stafford or whoever it is, it's hard to sustain league leading, essentially passing touchdown numbers. So I just think he's a prime candidate for overdrafting. And people are just going to take him too soon. I'd rather go ahead and draft Drew Brees four or five rounds later. Yeah. Or, okay, that's probably not going to happen.

Well, there's a lot of guys that are going to go very late in the draft at the quarterback position that I'm going to be fine with, whether that's Andy Dalton or Carr, Eli Manning, Tony Romo. Those guys give me them and a nice fifth rounder over Blake Bortles, who is really should be a streaming option. He's dependent upon who he's playing. I'll go back on the next player because it's directly tied to Blake Bortle. Yeah.

This was one of my favorite players this year. He led me to a championship this year in our league of record. We touted him from preseason on. So please do not think that I am a hater of this next man. But Alan Robinson is a guy that I think is going to be. Overreaction. Yes, overreaction. He's 22 years old. He came into his second year and he exploded for 16 touchdowns. He was the fourth best wide receiver this year.

So you could say when he's being drafted as the fifth wide receiver off the board, you could say, well, but Jason, he did it last year. Why wouldn't you think he gets better in his third year? Look, public opinion. You're wrong on this. Here's some stats about. Who's he going ahead of right now?

He's going ahead of guys like Des, Des Bryant, Alshan Jeffrey, Demarius Thomas, the guys that get targets and volume and have done it for years and are still on their prime. I would take all of those guys over Alan Robinson personally. D.T. is a little questionable based on quarterback. But look, J.J. Zacharison, great friend of the show, he posted this on Twitter about Blake Bortles since 1980. Okay.

except this year because we don't have data for the coming year. 27 quarterbacks have thrown 35 or more touchdown passes and only two have ever increased their touchdown percentage in the following year. There's that Blake Bortles number you were talking about. Yes. Look, Blake Bortals is not going to increase. And in addition to that, you want another reason why he's not going to? The Jaguars were the third worst in the league in percentage of touchdowns going to running back. They only had 13%.

of their touchdowns go to the running back position, which is an aberrition. The NFL average is 30%. So some of those touchdowns are going to go away from the defense getting better. Some of those touchdowns are going to go away from a game plan change and the running back getting in. And not all of them are going to go to Alan Robinson, who had only 80 catches and got 16 touchdowns, had a crazy yards per catch. There's just a lot of opportunity for regression. I think he's going too high because of his age.

I would take a couple other guys ahead of them. That stat you gave about the percentage going to running backs is incredible. Because if you, I remember looking at Tampa last year. I don't know where they ended. There was a point in the season where they were like 78% of their touchdowns. I think they finished because of passes and runs. Yeah, I think they finished at like 60%. That's incredible. So that's a good point. And we like Alan Ronson. We love him. You've been one of our guys. And that's the question is. But you can't overreact.

is so where are you okay taking Alan Robinson? If you don't want people to overreact, what is a, okay, this is fair. This is a good place to take him in the draft. Yeah, well, that's important because I think he's going to be good. I don't think he's going to completely poop your team. Right now, I see him probably as like the eighth, ninth, or tenth wide receiver off the board. But what that does from an overall draft position is that pushes you back.

a whole entire round. You don't get Alan Robinson's what that means. Right. That's what it means. I'm not getting Alan Robinson because Alan Robinson right now is going at the back end of the first round. I'm not taking Alan Robinson there. All right, Mike, your next overreaction candidate. So I'm going to go with a quarterback here because I want to remind some people. His name is Philip Rivers. Now, Philip Rivers was having a monster.

A monster season, depending on your scoring format, was a top three quarterback for a lot of the season. And then... I remember that. Yeah, he was fantastic. He was the guy that I was trying to get on every single one of my teams because his playoff schedule looked so great. And then, Keenan Allen, did he last rate his kidney as well?

It wasn't pretty. It was a bad internal. He had a major injury. It was an internal organ related injury, and he went down and he was out for the season. All of their wide receivers. They had wide receivers apocalypse. That was the top of the domino. The domino? Right on the top of the domino. Right up top. I have no idea what I'm trying to say. I'm hungry now. I'm hungry now.

So then they just continued to fall until you were left with Dantrell Inman as kind of your main as your go-to guy. And it was just a disaster from then on out. Here are some fascinating numbers with Philip Rivers. If you take a look at what he did this season with Keenan Allen. And without Keenan Allen, his fantasy points went down about eight points a game.

He averaged nearly a full touchdown less and almost 100 yards less per game without Keenan Allen. So you put Keenan Allen back in that situation. You get Ken Wisen on the team who is a bad head coach, is a great offensive. Wide receiver. It's a great offensive coordinator. You get maybe some growth from Melvin Gordon. You improve the run game a little bit.

And I just think that Philip Rivers is primed to be a late round quarterback target who could turn into a potential every single week plug and play quarterback. Yeah, I like that. I like that the split on Keenan Allen and not Keenan Allen is a good sample size. It was exactly half the season. Eight games with him, eight games without, and it was a drastic difference. Huge difference. I agree. I agree. All right, I'm going to give you my next name. This one might be a little controversial. I feel like it could be because of where he's going. But I actually believe...

that people are going to overreact to the negative about Dionne Lewis. There are a lot of reasons why. One, obviously, injury, recovering from injury. Two, the Patriots, okay? The running game is a quagmire, all right? Three, Lewis hadn't done it over a long period of time by any stretch of the imagination. Right now he's going as a fifth round running back.

I actually think that's probably where he's going to go. I mean, I don't see that changing unless we get some incredible reports, some huge commitment from the coaches. That being said, I believe that Dionne Lewis is undervalued at that draft position, and the overreaction to the injury and the questions are, is not warranted, okay? He's going to be ready for training camp.

The film, your eyeballs, told you how much better he was than white, but in case you wanted something else, they didn't hand the bowl to white because you couldn't. He was 2.5 a carry. Do you know what Dionne Lewis was? 4.8 a carry on the ground. He was running at that kind of a clip. And listen, here's the real, real meat of this argument. When he was healthy, his points per game put him as the fourth best running back in half-point PPR. Right now where he's going,

is borderline RB3 in the draft. That's gnarly. For a guy that was fourth when he was healthy, he signed it to your contract. I see a lot of reasons why you should hesitate on not keeping him in your keeper league. You should think about what he could be if he comes back and gets that role again, which I think he will. He's under contract. You don't need to keep him in a keeper league because you can draft him at a good value. Well, there you go. You're right. So I do like that. I will say this.

I worry about his injury history, going back to college, and whether or not he can stay on the field. But I'm fine with that in the fifth round. Yeah, fifth round is spectacular. And speaking to the contract, it just, it strikes when it happened. I thought this seems very unpatriotic. It did. It did. To give a running back at contract extension, it's right in the middle of the season, a guy who has done it for a couple games. But to me, that just says Bill Belichick found it.

He knows when he finds the talent. He says, okay, this guy's going to stick around for a couple more years because our team is spectacular when he's at the back position. And we know the fantasy numbers of everybody else trickled down in the splits between those two. Yeah. When he was out and what Brady could do. The offense really fell apart. Dionne Lewis in the fifth round would be...

Just spectacular. I would love that. So I'm going to piggyback that and stick on the same team with the guy that I think is. So your third name? My third and final name. Did you guys like hold hands through a meadow skipping and singing songs while you're making your picks? Well, here's the thing. This one is actually a little bit, is very different in the sense that it's not in actually. It's not in sync with Andy's take on Dionne Lewis because I believe that Thomas Brady, Tom Brady,

We are going to overreact and draft him too high. It's simple. He's a great quarterback. Obviously, I think, the best quarterback of all time from a fantasy option. He's not always the best fantasy quarterback. He's not even in the top half of the quarterback ones, just looking back a couple of years. In 2013, he was the 14th fantasy quarterback. In 2014, he was the ninth best fantasy quarterback. And so,

Look, I think he is going to be good. But where you have to take him right now is in the third round. For a guy that the Patriots could just become a running team or a defensive team or anything with Bill Belichick there, they've done it in years past. So why would we put so much value in our draft to say, hey, I got to have Tom Brady in the third that's too high. For me, I'd much rather have a Dalton.

a car, an Eli, a Romo late in the draft. What kind of car? Sitting in the car. He's more of a tourist guy. But wouldn't you rather have them and pair him with a Julian Edelman or an Amari Cooper or a Latavius Murray or an Eddie Lacey that those are the guys going in the third round? Give me those guys with still a capable quarterback because if you do the other way, you're going to take Tom Brady in the third and you're going to end up with...

I don't know, a running back backup for a team that you hope somebody gets injured. I mean, I don't know. Give me Tom Brady and, you know, Amir Abdullah. No, no, thank you. Yeah, I love the take. I pretty much took that stance last year. And how'd that work out for you? It blew up in my face, won't lie. But to me, the history says that unless they get another elite.