Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - The Overreaction Episode w/Special Guest Chris Harris

Langford, I feel like you're sitting very nicely with a guy with a starting opportunity for a team that's decent. From what I've seen, an early, early average opposition, Langford does not seem to be fading. For what I've seen. He's very high on the board. For redraft. I'm just speaking specifically to the dynasty guys I'm following on Twitter. And maybe they know something I don't, but I don't see a reason why you wouldn't like him.

right now for your dynasty team. All right, so the big man, the big free agent running back, Doug Martin. Doug Martin's never been called the big man. Well, I had to give him, look, if there's ever a time, it's when you're going to command $7 million annually as a running back in the NFL. The big bank man. And look, the big bank man. I like that. Number two in the NFL and rushing, going to hit the open market, and it's going to cost somebody, maybe the bucks, maybe not, a lot of money. That's a lot of cheesh.

this is another one of those situations where if he went somewhere else, it would have to be the right destination, obviously, but they're going to be spending a bunch for him. You know, similar to the trade for LaShawn McCoy where you kind of knew the workload was there, this is not a situation where you spend a bunch of money on Doug Martin and give him a time share. So projecting him forward, he seems like a lock for one of those, you know, in the top five, six consideration at running back. For attempts, or you're saying for fantasy? Both.

So you love him. No matter where he goes, you feel like you really like Doug Martin? I can't see a scenario where he goes someplace on that kind of money and ends up having no impact. See, I feel like, and there's been a lot of... I mean, you could tell, you could say Oakland, right? That's where I was just going to say. But are they going to spend $7 million when they have Latavius Murray to share it? I don't think there's too much money. But they were fully in the DeMarco Murray sweepstakes last year. They...

And I don't think... So that would be one place that I... Yeah, you'd have to question the value. I don't think that this year has solidified Latavius Murray. We saw him get dog housed multiple times over the year. Not that I'm not trying to crush Murray, just what I believe... They have an opinion about him. They have an opinion about it. Yeah, the truth is most of the teams that would be willing to pay that kind of money for a running back free agent to come to them are really not the...

better franchise is not where I want my running backs to be located. However, I think he's going to stay with the bucks because the bucks aren't in a terrible cap position. I mean, look at it this way. I mean, they have said so far that I don't think they're going to cut Vincent Jackson. But if they let the muscle hamster go and keep Vincent Jackson on his huge contract, I would just do a swapsie's there.

You know, they didn't have Benson Jackson for half of this year. So, if Doug Martin leaves, Charles Sims. Charles Sims. Yes. Under, probably will be automatically underdrafted. Even if, if Doug Martin stays. Too many consonants. Then, that's not why. If he stays, Martin in Tampa Bay, Charles Sims is going to be underdrafted. That's what I mean. Oh, I thought you were saying if Martin leaves.

Oh, you see, either way. Either way. I think Charles Sims is going to be underdrafted. If I'm recalling right off the top of my head, Sims was an RB2 and was fantastic in the passing game, which is not necessarily Martin's strength. We were talking over the weekend break, and I had brought up, we had already talked about Houston, but Houston as a destination for Doug Martin.

I think that there's a high percentage chance that they cut Foster, they move on. They're already talking about. They need the running game going. They don't seem to have a solution on the roster right now. And Doug Martin would be a very big lift for a team that appears close because their defense is so good. All right. I want to get into the overreaction segment of the show. Real quick.

I've read this a few different times. You know, the idea here in Indianapolis is that they won't be able to keep both tight ends. Yep. And so the thought is they'll resign Fleener and let Dwayne Allen go. So we'll have to see where he lands, if that is indeed the case. And so you guys ready to get into, you got your picks? Do you have your overreaction picks? I've got them. Best picks ever. You're going to have to bring those up against Chris Harris here pretty soon. Let's do it. I'm not going to do.

What you all think I'm going to do, which is just flip out. Really like that drop, Mike. I like it. Thank you. All right, so overreaction. You could call this a number of things, the pendulum episode, the rubber band episode. Whatever it is, we all do it. Everybody does it every single year, and you kind of have to. Because you're always trying to project forward a guy. However, I think in these cases, we're saying...

The reaction is just plain too strong, and these guys are going too high or too low, and here's why, right? And so I'm going to let Mike kick us off and give me a name of somebody that is your overreaction pick. All right, we're going to start it at the tight end position. Now, I'll preface this for all of us when we say, just because we're over, say,

people might be overreacting in a positive manner to these players. That doesn't mean that we think they will be bad or terrible for fantasy. We just think that where they are being drafted or will be drafted might be too early because there's some certain flags that are standing out. So I'm going with Tyler Eiffert. So a lot of fantasy owners that will be sad to hear you say that. And he is going, I believe, is the third tight end right now.

because he's young, had a monster breakout year. Fifth round, fourth round tied in. Right now he's being drafted at the top of the fifth round. Here's the problem with Tyler Eifford. Touchdown regression. We see it from nearly every player in the NFL when you come out and you have a huge touchdown year. You can't sustain that kind of pace. There are a couple guys that can't. So I'm not saying it's impossible. But I just don't.

I'm not sure that Tyler Eifford will be able to continue that success with touchdowns because in games where he is not scoring a touchdown, he's averaging in standard leagues three and a half points a game. This was last year. And that's the boom bust you can get from a waiver wire tied end. Now Eifford clearly was putting up touchdowns regularly, so he was fantastic for you. But he only had two games over five catches. One of those games was an overtime game.

He has the room to improve, but if he doesn't score, he's going to suck. And for a guy who you're taking in the fifth round that early, especially at the tight-end position, I want a floor.

of production that I know I can count on. That's not a touchdown. You want to make sure that they're involved enough in the game where if they don't get a touchdown, they're not going to crap your team if you're taking someone in the fifth. And so I can see that with Tyler Eifer, obviously with his touchdown opportunity, if they keep that up, you know, like a Julius Thomas a couple years ago, wasn't too involved in the past game, but was... That's a perfect comp. The red zone target. It's just not that common.

So he could do it again, but we here are kind of projecting odds, and odds of a player doing that are less common than normal. One thing to consider, too, is that...

He has a certain level of variables here. He's done it for one season. Hugh Jackson is left as offensive coordinator. Marvin Jones is likely to leave. We don't know what the running proportions will be, but we know Hugh Jackson always led the top five in the league. In rushing attempts, does that change the other direction? We don't know, but what we do know is this, is that touchdown sustainability at that level is very, very difficult for non-gronk.

When you break down games played in yards and everything, he averaged four for 47 over the course of the season. That's just... And had some injury concern. So that's very low. Jason, who's the guy that you want to kick us off with? Yeah, I'm going to go, since Mike went with someone that we might overreact to and go too high on, I'm going to go the other direction to talk about a guy that kind of soured in our mouth this year. And we... He was not in my mouth.

He did not sour in my mouth. That could be taken the wrong way. He's made of milk. He is... Expired milk. All these food analogies are perfect for my guy here. And it is Eddie Lacey. I want you to read the five words you put at the beginning of your write-up. My five words were potential value thanks to fatness.

And the truth is, he came in as Fat Eddie this year, was extremely overweight, looked it, played like it, and you've got that bad taste. Now the team has affirmed it. Yeah, the team has affirmed it. Everybody saw it on the field. He ruined a lot of people's fantasy options because he was a top three pick. And so what we do with guys like that is we hate them.

We become emotionally against them. And the truth is, here's some things that happen. One, and I think this matters. Not because they're fat, but because you spent so much of a pick on it. Yeah, because you spent so much of a pick. Keep in mind. So he had eight games last year with five or less fantasy points. That is crapping the team. That's eight weeks where we came in on Monday disparaging. Teddy Lacey to the world. He was in the pooped in his extremely big boy pants segment.

In several of those games, it wasn't just because he played bad. It wasn't because he played bad. It was because he got five or less carries. Wow. He wasn't involved in those games, and you couldn't trust them. Why? Because the coaching staff couldn't trust him. He was overweight. All of that. In addition, you lost Jordy Nelson. So that changed the whole Green Bay offense. You could see it with Randall Cobb. Aaron Rogers. Apparently, way more than we could have ever thought. Right. And even with all of that considered, keep in mind, he was the 25th running back.

He wasn't disappearing from the scene. He still had big weeks and big games because he is a good NFL running back for a team that should be much improved next year on offense when they get Jordi back. So what I'm saying is this. I think it's a big deal he's in a contract year. Huge deal. Because...

He is at the age where he realizes he's got one more chance at that next big contract at a running back. He's going to lose weight in the offseason. The Packers have demanded it. And so if he comes in, if he comes in having shed some weight and he looks good in this contract year with a bounce back candidate, he's being drafted in the third round. He was, you know, a top five fantasy player two years ago. I think we're getting too, we're overreacting on.

How fat Eddie Lacey was here. Listen, we're scared. We're scared. That's what it is. And I'm in the camp where most everybody on this list of the guys we mentioned today, I completely agree with. Eddie Lacey's the one name on here that I have hesitation with. Why is that? Because of what the team thought of his effort and what we saw, yes, money talks, okay? I get that. But not to everybody. Not everybody can hear it.

Because some people are a little too lost, right? There are a lot of players that have thrown away careers due to lack of effort, lack of making the commitment. I'm not in any way right now predicting Eddie Lacey will do that. But I'm also not taking a contract year and this hope to lose weight as a guarantee that it will take place. Well, the nice thing about this call is that you don't have to draft before you see how he comes into training camp. There's going to be reports.

All over. When he comes in a training camp, people are going to say he has lost weight if he's lost weight. But if you're a keeper or dynasty owner, you're then saying, it'll be all right. Perfect, perfect example here is you cannot trade Andy Lacey right now. You're not going to get value for him. People are so down on him that I think if you're a keeper or a dynasty option, you hold him. Because the potential for him to bounce back and provide you with value.

Is there? Otherwise, you're selling him at a low point. So here's one quick question. I'll move on. I'll give you one of my names. Today, you have to write a name down on your team for a keeper running back. Is it Doug Martin or is it Eddie Lacey? Ooh. If it's between those two and it has to be today, I'm going to take Eddie Lacey because of the chance that Doug Martin could go to the Raiders. Bold. It would be Eddie Lacey for me as well. I would be looking to acquire him.