The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs in 2018, Part 2

in those first eight weeks, three games over the 20 point threshold for Adrian Peterson. It got, it was up against, under 10 points. It was up against Adrian Peterson with, with the offensive line injuries, with your, with your franchise quarterback going down, your backup quarterback going down. So it's, I'll be very interested to see. He will come back.

And play football next year. Do you think so? You feel stronger about it? Where? For the Saints, they're going to lose Parker. Yeah. For Washington. It will be Geis Peterson, Chris Thompson next year. Have you guys seen the Geist tapes coming out lately, him working out? He's looking. He's going to be great. He's looking really good. They still need insurance for him. Sure. Adrian Peterson will be back, in my opinion, with the Washington Redskins. Part of why I have confidence in that is the fact that...

Jay Gruden is back as the head coach once again and what Adrian Peterson provided for them at a position in which Jay Gruden has never had anybody stay healthy for more than five minutes. You need an insurance policy for Darius guys and a mentor for him. And that is what Adrian Peterson can provide. Maybe he lands somewhere else. I think Peterson said he wants to play another 13 years. But would you want? I mean, let's. If I were them.

Let's just look at this last year, right? The truth of Adrian Peterson. Would you, he finishes the number 18 running back. But if you had Adrian Peterson and were starting him, you probably didn't even make the playoffs. He was so, there were so many games where he was complete and utter trash. I feel like he was very boom-bust this season. I don't think people were happy with the number 18 running back this year. That sounds pretty good, especially because you drafted him late. That might have been why you were happy, though.

Yeah, I'm saying even with that, I think people that owned Adrian Peterson did not do well in fantasy this year. Yeah, I don't share that opinion with you. I think you're a lot happier with Adrian Peterson drafted late doing what he did. Yeah, you got Peterson very late. But I don't think it's a, he doesn't have a clear path to this again. I mean, there's just no, there's no clear path to him doing this again outside of. The clear path is you sit around. Dept chart assassin. You don't sign with anybody.

And then someone gets hit with a devastating injury and you go clean up the pieces. All right. Let's look at, and props to him, 4.15 a carry in his age 72 season. Tevin Coleman comes in at number 19. More question marks. I mean, these names, as they pop up and you get a chance to dive in, I can just see what our offseason is going to be made of. And Tevin Coleman, number 19 on the season. This was really...

21 by consistency in a disappointment to all. It was very, very disappointing because Kevin Coleman, the allure of the early draft pick of Kevin Coleman was maybe something, maybe he gets an opportunity because Devonto Freeman goes down. Freeman went down pretty early, very early on the season, early enough that in weeks 11 through 13, you should not be seeing a carry total of 24 carries in that time period.

clearly there was just never enough shown by Tevin Coleman to the Falcons that they're going to ride him out. And especially to me, and this is just going down a narrative of this is how I would be coaching the team. But you know that Tevin Coleman's not coming back to the team. I would rather wear him out trying to get my team into the playoffs.

then try and get Edo Smith involved. Unless you legitimately don't think he's the key to getting you to the playoffs. Exactly. So that was extremely troubling. Only 167 carries on a year where we figured the path was open. Big time. Which makes you wonder about, I mean, I don't want to disparage him in speculation, but everything that took place from a workload perspective, it made you question was there problems on the practice field?

Why do they have more confidence in Edo Smith? Why weren't they giving him more of a workload? I don't know the answer to those questions, and I don't know where he's going to land. But all of the excitement, and he's going to be out there looking for $20, $30 million guarantee. I mean, that's what he's going to be out there looking for. And he's not going to end up back in Atlanta.

Do you agree with that? Yes. Yeah, I don't think they're going to. I mean, maybe his poor performance will make it to where they can afford him and he'll be back. But the expectation has been for a while that because they paid Devante Freeman, that Kevin Coleman would not be able to return. Does he get a deal as good as Derek McKinnon? Because that's where I... No.

I think it's possible that he gets a deal in that range because of his age, explosive nature. He trailed only Saquan Barkley and breakaway rate among running backs with 150 plus attempts. So he's always done the big play thing. You wonder if there's a team that latches on to that as the untapped potential of Tevin Coleman because think about how we treat fantasy. We go, oh man, we've seen a little bit of it from them. Let's go buy low. Do you think there's a team out there that goes, wow, 800 yards, didn't get enough carries, explosive player?

Young? It could happen. I mean, that was what we thought was going in Dynasty going into this previous season. People thought, oh, Kevin Coleman's going to be a star in 2019. Right. Because he's going to go sign somewhere a la Jerk McKinnon and be the guy. And I think GMs this year have to give pause to give him big money based on the opportunity laid in front of him and his performance this season. I think he played himself out of that happening.

It'll be, yeah, that'll be very interesting to see who takes a chance on him. You've got a different group of running backs last year. It was, you know, McKinnon, is Earl where they're going to end up? You know, this year you got Ingram. Does he come back? Does he not? Coleman moving on potentially. Jordan Howard. Interesting season for Jordan Howard. So weird. Number 20 on the list. 21st by consistency. Strong, stable finish to the year. I won't say.

abnormally strong. He only had one game in this year that qualified in our great category by consistency. He busted in a quarter of his games and then 56% in that good category. However, much like Adrian Peterson, in my opinion, you kind of didn't know when you could play him and when you couldn't. We never had a real smile on our face up until maybe the last couple weeks of the season when you put him into your lineup. The very end of the season was, aside from the beginning,

where he was catching, like I said, four to five passes a week. And the first three weeks of the season, you thought you had something special in Jordan Howard. So you kept forcing him in. Then weeks four and week six, he was awful for your team. And you could have played him, but you probably didn't until you finally had those confidence. All right, Jordan Howard, you're going back in weeks 10 through 12. And he torched you again.

I think what we know is that Jordan Howard is what he is, right? He's not going to be a past-getting weapon. No. He's going to be a Adrian Peterson-type performer, fantasy-wise, this past year on your team. Like, do you rank him above or below 18 going into next season? Just off the top of your head. That's a great threshold. Yeah, it is. I would probably rank him just below that threshold. Yeah, I would as well. It's probably what I would do, too, just because...

You know, there are games he's going to disappear. He did have nine touchdowns. 250 for 935 and 9. Do you think 9 is about where he belongs? Yeah. Or is that, you know. That's 7 to 9 range is fine by me. Marlon Mack at 21. Consistency rank of 18. His season was difficult because you, you know, he missed the majority of the first five games. Also missed week 9. Had some monster games in there. 25% of his games.

that he played. 25% were great. That's the highest percentage from our finishers from number 11, all the way to now 21. So you got some boom games, some weak winning games from Arlen Mac. The offensive line in Indianapolis changed. That's honestly everything for me. You got a picture of it up on the wall in your house? I mean, it was pretty. I got them to lock it. 2017, it was one of the biggest problems for the Colts.

along with the fact that, you know, Andrew Luck was missing. You get both of those rectified and that's starting running back who is a good, I mean, he can make guys miss. He's got some juice and he torched difficult defenses. Yeah, it was a lot of times. I remember there was the game where it was like, man.

Dallas. Yeah, Dallas has just been so good, and he destroyed them. So, yeah, I think Marlon Mack, assuming they don't do anything drastic in free agency, and I don't think they do, considering they've got two rookies. Yeah, Jordan Wilkins, Naeem Hines. Right. So firmly behind Mac, in my opinion, too. Yeah, so Marlon Mack, he's probably going to be too high in my racing. He's going to be near. I see him as an RB1 if they don't change things. Whoa, that's hot. So you take them over Jordan Howard.

I would definitely take him over Jordan Howard. My powered offense, great quarterback, great offensive line. Mack or Chubb? Chub. Okay. Mac has that sweet. That's close. Sweet. Pass kitchen capability. Off the top of my head, that's very close. But I doubt they end up very different on the year. Yeah, the big difference is, is that I do still have worries that Chubb.

could have those games where he's kind of game scripted out. Right. Like we kind of saw that in Week 17 against Baltimore. They were throwing a lot and Chubb had a very low snap percentage. All right. I want to highlight some more names just at an overview level since we broke down all the data, the truth, the consistency of these players, where they finished and then where they were consistent. I want to give a shout out to Lamar Miller, who this year, despite finishing at 22, was the 15th most consistent player, also made his first Pro Bowl.

He was very good. He was very good. Yeah, he was. He was weird, man. Yes, he was. No player looked worse and better at different times of the year. I think you said it well, Jason. He was very good. Yeah. Yeah, he fits in that category. It's good. Aaron Jones, 23 and 23. Again, competing, injured, dealing with some different things. What do you think about Aaron Jones next year? He... So much potential. Yes, so much potential. This is the...

The same argument for Philip Lindsay that he, if you're watching them play, at least from our perspective, we can't see any of the practices, any of the behind-the-scenes stuff. He's the best running back on the team. But it took for, why did it take so long for Aaron Jones to become the guy for the Green Bay Packers? And now you have a new coaching staff. So that's the variables on him when I think that he will be drafted very high. He's going to be.

riding shotgun in that hype train this off season. It actually matters a ton to me how that season begins depth chart-wise. I mean, it's like this new coaching staff has to form their opinion on these guys through all of training camp preceded and practicing. I mean, if Jamal Williams runs out there week one, that's the sound of the alarms. That'll be one of those things. Remember a couple years ago, Burkhead? Oh, yeah. Who was it in the beginning of the season? It was Burkhead or?

Oh, I've got it. Why can't I think of his name? No. No, it was the guy went to the Saints. Oh, Gillisley. Yeah. Oh, Gilly. Where you were looking for that first snap? That'll be interesting. Austin Echler at 24, consistency rate of 30. There's one guy we absolutely have to talk about. I know we're getting near the end, but you guys need to talk me off the ledge because as a Dalvin Cook owner. Sure. 31, by the way. He destroyed me.

And he destroyed anybody that drafted him because the first half of the year he was pretty much injured. But he came back for a couple games where he sucked and he'd give you two points or he'd give you half a point. He would destroy your team. But in the games he played, including the half a point game, including the two point game. Darwin Cook has a great feature ahead of him. He was great. He was our number 13 and consistency ranking because at the end of the year, 15, 14, 16, 28, 12. Look at weeks 12.

through the end of the season, and then realized that they made an offensive coordinator switch right around that time when they said, we got to stop being so pass-heavy, we got to get it to the running back. I mean, it all was correlated with the returning health of Dalvin Cook. I think he is, I completely agree with Andy. His future is extremely bright.

for the NFL and for famous. And he catches the ball. I mean, in limited work this year, 11 games, 40 receptions. That's a lot. That's a 60-something reception season. Latavius Murray is an unrestricted free agent as well. All right. You want the devil you know or the devil you don't know there? I'll probably hop back in the kitchen and grab up. I mean, when Mark Ingram signs with Minnesota behind Dalvin Cook, here's the thing. They do have to bring in a