The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs in 2018, Part 2

no matter how inefficient he is. Yeah, that's the thing. When he had his big breakout week, I couldn't wait for this episode to talk about Derek Henry to talk about how don't buy into his end of season rankings. But then it kept going. But then it kept going. And what matters to Derek Henry is volume. He's a volume back. He's one of those wear you down big body backs. He's not going to ever be valuable for fantasy when he's, I mean, listen to these carry accounts through the middle of the year. Eight.

Eight carries, 11, 7, 12, 6, 11, 9, 8, 10. You can't do, a Derek Henry for fantasy, that can't work. That cannot work. Derek Henry for the NFL, that can't work. Yeah, true. But the Titans figured something out after his breakout game, and they didn't go away from him, ever. And his carry counts on the season. He had 215 carries on the season. But over that stretch from that breakout game on, they were giving him carries that were.

a 16-game pace of 350 carries. So look, if he can be a... And maybe that's what he is. Maybe he needs it. He does. Dionne Lewis disrupted his ability to do anything because they paid Dionne too much money, which meant they had to give him too many carries. If I knew that Derek Henry gets 300 carries. And, you know, I don't know what he does with him. I don't know if he stinks. He's inefficient. If he doesn't get touchdown opportunities. But I know he's getting 300 carries on a season.

I will draft him very high. You're going to sign up. I will sign up. And 305 was like the lead of this past season. Because 300 is a lot of carries. I would not be surprised that Derek Henry was in that category next year. Yeah, I wouldn't either. Him and Mark Ingram will have to compete for carries in that backfield. They got to the play. Oh, goodness. This is not going away, guys. Oh, it better. Mark Ingram needs to resign with the Saints immediately so this can go away. Oh.

We'll move on. Chris Carson at number 15. Consistency rank of 14. That's exactly how he felt. He felt like the 15th best running back each and every week. He was out there kind of giving you a reliable perspective. You felt like he was the number one guy in Seattle. Now, you didn't know when or if Rashad Penny was going to take the mantle from him. But the eye test.

The fact that in 71% of his games, fantasy-wise, he gave you a good 10-plus point performance. Best yards after contact percentage of running backs over 200 attempts. He was, I feel like he was for Seattle, what he was for fantasy owners. Yes. Which was just, solid, right? A solid running back. I want him as my two. Like, that would be outstanding.

Yeah, I mean, you know, the truth, even if you look at, okay, he was the 15th ranked running back by our truth consistency score. One of the things that doesn't. Oh, he was 15th. He was consistency ranked 14. 14. One of the things that doesn't consider is the games that he got injured and left. And so some of his bad games were that. Now, his running style says, like, I really want to get hurt. I mean, he goes hard in the paint. Every single play, it looks like he's just.

He's kamikaze. But man, you're on a team that can run the ball that wants to run the ball and did so at a rate higher than most teams in the league. And I don't think he's going to cede that first spot. He felt very consistent so long as he wasn't injured. And since you can't really predict injuries, I think you have to lean with him being a consistent back. Now, he has.

what I'll call the Alex Collins effect going for him to a degree as well. They invested a first-round draft pick than Rashad Penny. Rashad Penny was banged up for a large portion of the year, and he will bring pause to any potential Chris Carson drafter. And if he's drafted anywhere inside the top 20, that might be too much risk for me. The top 20 at the position? At the position. Like, if Chris Carson...

falls in my draft. I bet Chris Carson. Where he's outside that range. He's going to go. He's going to go in that fourth round. I'll probably choose. I'll choose somebody else. I'll choose somebody else. Mike Davis is a unrestricted free agent. I expect him to depart and try to get money somewhere else. That'll help with the, okay, maybe Rashad Penny gets more carries because there's so much.

There is a lot to go around there. rushing attempts there that I think both Penny and Carson could have successful seasons next season. Well, yeah, and maybe that problem, perceived problem isn't a problem, and maybe that makes him a value. Yeah. Where would you draft Rashad Penny hypothetically? Because if Chris Carson shows you what he can do in that system, the investment on Richard Penny, how far is that gap between him? And do you want, you know, much like Henry and Lewis, where he had to choose between best value, best player?

Are you undoubtedly taking Carson? Yeah, right now, Penny is, you don't wait for him. He's like ninth, tenth round for me. Yeah, I love Penny. I think he's hyper talented. I hope he wins that job at some point, but it's definitely Chris Carson right now. I'm be wanting to see where Penny tips the scales in training camp. Yeah. That all matter to me. Nick Chubb, number six. Oh, yeah. Number 16.

By total points, which you can almost throw out the window because of the fact he started the year with 2, 1, and 0. Did we count those? No. Okay. So if you take out the games that he was behind Carlos Hayden got like a handful of carries. And which means we also took out one of his big games where he had the two monster, 300 yards on three touches or whatever. Because we wanted, when we're doing this, these are proprietary metrics that we're.

you know, grinding on and wanting to make sure they're... Yeah, wanted to make sense. Yeah, wanted to be predictive for the future and telling of the past. And he had 16 total rushes in weeks one through six. So those are the ones we pulled out? Exactly. One through six, we just said he was, that's not who he was. Once he got the start in week seven, we went from the rest of the season. And that's why he is a top 10 in our consistency score. Number nine. So number 16 finished, number nine in consistency. You need to look at him.

much more in the 8-9 range at the running back position than you do the 16 going into next year. In those games that we ranked him, only 10%, which is one game. Did he qualify as a bus? The rest, 80% good, 20% great. There are only a handful of players in the NFL. That was week 17. Right. And there are only a handful of players in the NFL that can, they have the potential of a 60, 70, 80-yard run. Nick Chubb was in that category this year.

The big red flag for Nick Chubb is his defensive splits because he beat the crap out of bad teams. Seven games against bottom 16 averaged over 17 points a game. His nine games against top 16 rushing defenses, 7.2, which is just above our threshold of.

Yeah, the only problem with those metrics is those do not take into account those first few weeks. So some of the matchups he had, New Orleans Saints, for instance, are a top defense. He did nothing against him because he literally had, you know, it looks like he had three snaps that game. That's fair. But he's one of the brightest young fantasy slash NFL football stars.

in the game. I mean, he has an opportunity on an offense that took huge strides forward with a consistent running, with a consistent quarterback, and a real commitment to him as a workhorse type back, and he's built to be that. That's what I love about Nick Chub. I mean, Nick Chubb proved enough this year to have me put him in the category that I would have put Joe Mixen in coming into this season. Yeah, and I love that Freddie Kitchens is back. Like, that's humongous for Nick Chub. And for projecting any...

Cleveland Brown offense and player. In the office, but I'm saying specifically to Nick Chubb, Freddie Kitchens was part of the staff that said, Nick Chubb, you're the carry us there. So he's back. He's calling the shots. I'm very excited for Nick Chubb. He's going to be one of those guys where when you're making your top 10 running backs, there might be too many people that you're like, man, they all deserve to be in the top 10. Because Chub does belong in that top 10 conversation, especially, you know, I didn't think he was going to be used in the receiving game hardly at all.

He projected from. Duke Johnson didn't think he would either. Yeah, as a starter. He was real disappointed in those games, you know. 20 receptions in his time, you know, over the course of the season. So as a started projected for 32 receptions, that great. We would be complaining if that was Zeke, you know, saying, man, I want him to get up. I don't think it's going to go much higher than that either. I don't think there's any. If you can give me Nick Chubbs carry count, though, and get him to that 40 reception territory, me, then you're talking.

that dare I bring up the name, but that's like that Eddie Lacey category of work. I'm still very interested. He was pro football focus's highest elusive rating for players with 60 plus attempts. So he didn't just perform for fantasy. He was legitimately a quality running back. What's funny to me, and I've brought this up already, but I'm a big Sony Michelle fan for 2019. I just have a real conviction that Sony Michelle, you saw it in the first playoff game.

His ability. I just think it's funny. Nick Chubb, Sonny Michelle, Georgia running backs, both emerging. I think they're going to be in similar discussions of a tier and where they're drafted next year or deserve to be. Who do you think you'd take out of those two next year? I think I would take Nick Chub. Because of the variables that exist that we talked about before the season with who's playing running back in New England. That could get clearer over the course of the season, but that's where I'd lean right now. All right, number 17. Kenyon Drake.

Consistency rank of 28. Adam Gaze's least favorite player outside of, you know. Devante Parker. Jay Jai. All of his. Jarvis Landry. Any of his players that are good. Yeah, he's not a big fan of that. Well, he sacrificed statistics to win games. I like that you're calling Devante Parker good. He's better than what he's shown. I think he had a chance to be good until he was just in doghouse and you don't get to play football.

Yeah, so over the course of the season, Kenyon Drake, the anomaly himself, 120 for 535 and 4 on the ground. There's nothing impressive about that. 53 for 477 and 5 through the air. Now we're getting somewhere. But not enough of the workload, not enough consistency in terms of the carry counts, reception totals. His occasional good game towards the end of the season came on, you know.

Okay, one of his targets ended up in as a touchdown. One of his was a walkoff. He had that fluke play against the Patriots. Seven games underneath. Five games under 55 total yards. So not even just on the ground, just everything he had an opportunity to do. Seven games under 55, scored a total of one touchdown in those seven games. He left you with the, what, going back in time here, the bitter beer face more often than not when you put him in your lineup.

Yeah, he was not consistent. No Damien Williams is what I'm saying, Jason. He was not a great fantasy asset at all this year. And usually you got it wrong on the weeks where he did explode. He was probably on your bench. And the weeks where you thought you could put him in, he disappointed you. And part of that's going to be Adam Gay's. Part of that was Frank Gore. And honestly, with Adam Gay's leaving, Frank Gore says he wants to come back. We'll have to see. But I don't think that. Don't forget the Bellagio.

Oh, Kaelin Belas. High Roller. Yeah, I'm not too worried about the Bellagio. I think that the Belagio and Kenyon and Drake can both coexist. But, yeah, I would not be surprised if that's who coexists there. I don't know if anybody but Adam Gaze wants to bring Frank Gore back for another three-headed monster, but we'll see. It'll be, this will be interesting to see what is the coaching staff finalized at in Miami? Right. And maybe it's final by the time you're hearing this recording. We just, we don't have.

They have enough holes to fill right now. I mean, you know, a lot of drafts have them picking a quarterback and I don't think you want to bring up holes around that cozy staff. Well, they lost one. They did lose one. So they got to replace. They've got to replace. How do you lose a hole? They got to replace some holes on their lineup. But my point is, I don't think that they have the room to spend draft capital. That's a puzzle. How do you lose a hole? Yeah.

Can't find a hole. That's a stop. Moving along. Move it along. I just don't think they can put draft capital on a running back. So I think you're right. It could very well be Drake and Belage next season. But I'm going to pretty much stay away. Could also be Belage and Drake. Oh, that's a solid point. That's the way I'd lean, by the way. Number 18, Adrian Peterson. He was the 18th best running back in football. Good for you, Peterson. Firmly in the running back two, finish. And then a consistency rank of 31.

16 games played, 251 yards, over 1,000 yards, seven touchdowns on the ground. And, I mean, you just kind of tip your cap to a guy who, not a great offensive situation. Alex Smith didn't work out. That was a tough. That's not what I meant. You know what I mean? The offense was not impressive even with him. That's rough. It wasn't impressive. Sure, but he was. But they were winning games early. And he was actually solid. I mean.