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Main show · August 7, 2020

Top 10 RB Rankings + Best Ball Breakdown - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/7

RSSAug 7, 2020 · transcript indexed
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Top 10 RB Rankings + Best Ball Breakdown - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/7

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Inside the episode

142 passages
28:01 ↗

And my guess, if I were to presume upon my colleagues here, would be that the reason he doesn't fit in that top three tier is the injury risk. We saw it at the very end of the air. Yeah, that's correct. And so you know that you have a window here. It wasn't one week, two, week, three weeks. You have a 14-week window where he was the RB2 in that span. But he didn't help you in the fantasy playoffs. He has a history of not being able to finish seasons. And so...

28:26 ↗

that knocks him down a little bit. It raises that risk rating up. But at the same time, if you're comfortable with that risk, he is the player that, you know, we get the question of where do you want to draft? Like if you could pick your own draft spot, are you comfortable going down into the four, five, six range? If you look at Delvin Cook in the same lens as a Sequin or as a Zeke, then, you know, that gives you the opportunity to draft higher in the second round.

28:52 ↗

I think that this offense is built. I mean, we've seen it, around Dalvin Cook. This is also a team that I have a little bit more confidence in the stability of than somebody like the New York Giants or even Christian McCaffrey at the top. So, you know, you just have to take that injury risk if that's, if you're going to go Dalvin Cook.

29:12 ↗

Yeah, I would be curious if he didn't get injured at the end of the season, played through the playoffs, it was just completely healthy. Because like you said, the entirety of the season, he was the running back two. He averaged 20 points a game and half PPR. That was, you know, you think about Austin Echler was great. He was number five. He was down at 17 points per game. So he was dominant. And if he had stayed healthy, would he be?

29:38 ↗

you know, up in that conversation with the other three guys we mentioned. 100% I think he would. Yeah. But I mean, the reality is he has an injury that has a degree of needing surgery in the future. Like there's a percentage that is higher than 10% that he will need surgery in the future. And that is enough for me to worry about him. He's not my number four.

30:04 ↗

You know, but the workload if he plays 16, I think everyone would say he's going to be one of those rare elite backs that give you double production in one. Thirdmost goal line carries last year despite missing two games. That's hot. Second and fancy points per game. Fourth in evaded tackles and an offense entirely Zimmerified. He wants to run that football. And you get.

30:29 ↗

Gary Kubiak now. Coobes. Coobes is leading the charge. He is now the offensive coordinator. Coobes is, you know how we talk about Kyle Shanahan and about how his team has always been able to get the running game going the way that nobody else has. Well, not the way nobody else has. He got it from his daddy. And his daddy worked with Kubiak and their system.

30:55 ↗

is unbelievable. That was part of what made Dalvin Cook last year, but now Kubiak is totally in charge. So if you want to take a shot at health and you take him number four, I don't have any problem with it, but I, you know, we've talked about this before. My draft strategy in the first round is that everyone is great. Everyone has the chance to be top five at their position. So I avoid risk. I avoid things that are.

31:22 ↗

seeable coming. You know what I mean? Sure. If he gets injured, we're going to go, ah, dang it. I knew it. But that's not enough for you. I mean, I understand the risk aversion, but is that enough for you to go select a Michael Thomas over at Alvin Cook? Yeah. So you would, if you're sitting there, you would. I would not. But my answer to the question is that is enough to make that decision. If you are.

31:48 ↗

looking at, you know, and if I was in a three wide receiver PPR, I would take Michael Thomas over Dalvin Cook. So you have Alvin Camara ranked higher than Dalvin Cook? I do, yes. Okay, so you have Alvin, you're taking Alvin Camara at pick four? Correct. And then, so pick five, you would, you would at least consider going Michael Thomas over Dalvin Cook? If it was a three wide receiver full PPR, yeah.

32:11 ↗

Well, we'll talk about Alvin Kamara shortly, but I mean, he has similar injury concerns. And then the final thing. So the, because Jason and I have both been pretty vocal about if I'm willing to take the risk on Dalvin Cook, I am drafting the insurance running back, the backup running back, Alexander Madison, who has, if you looked at the ADP, you know, early in the off season with all the, the hullabaloo about a possible holdout, Madison.

32:37 ↗

was jumped up to, you know, seventh, even the sixth round. He has since plummeted. Jason, where are you targeting that you draft Cook? Now you're going to target Madison. I think you're going to make sure you get him. So which round are you willing to go? I think you'll get him every ninth round. I think he'll be there because the holdout is over. Nobody who doesn't have Cook is going to draft Alexander Madison. Not nobody, but the vast majority of leagues. He'll be there for you in the ninth round. And if I.

33:06 ↗

Take Cook. My ninth round pick is auto locked in. And if I'm super late in the ninth, then maybe you consider it. All right. Let's move on to number five on our consensus list. And we start to get some more diversion between us at this point. But it is amazingly. Clyde, Edwards, Allaire, the Kansas City Chiefs. We talked about Damien Williams' opt out, the hype around Clyde, first round draft pick, hand selected.

33:35 ↗

by Patrick Mahomes. And I have them at 7, Jason at 6, Mike at 5, and he ends up 5 in our consensus rankings because of some differences of opinion on the players after in my rankings. So 10 touchdowns. Is that a safe projection for Clyde Edwards-Aler? Yes, to me that is safe. You're talking about the number one scoring offense, or at least...

34:03 ↗

Whatever, top three. If Kansas City has a bad year, they're third. So you're talking about a huge opportunity for touchdowns. The fact that he was a first round running back, I get it. You know, maybe you're nervous about drafting a rookie running back in the first round. But he was drafted in the first round, and we see time and time again, these players get opportunity immediately.

34:32 ↗

There was a little bit of concern with Damian Williams being the presumed starter. But now that he has opted out for his family, Clyde Edwards is the unquestioned starter of this team. He's going to get first round draft capital opportunity on a very high scoring offense. And on an offense that the running back doesn't just score rushing touchdowns. Like we saw, you know, Kareem Hunt and Damien Williams both having.

34:59 ↗

major success of scoring reception or receiving touchdowns, which not all running backs have that in their repertoire. But all the chiefs running backs do. And that's the kind of interesting point with Clyde Andrew Zillard is the other two significant players in the backfield were drafted to be the same thing or picked up as well. DeAndre Washington at Texas Tech with Patrick Mahomes. Another guy he had an influence in bringing in can catch the ball. Darwin Thompson. He can catch the football.

35:28 ↗

started to progress a little bit in that respect towards the end of the year. So you may see, I mean, I don't disagree with anything you're saying. I think Clyde gets the majority work. But I think those two guys will be worked in as well. Yeah, to me, this is the opportunity to have Edwards Aller come in in game one be the guy. That's how I see it happening. Now, that's not to say that the other players won't be utilized, but I think they want.

35:56 ↗

him involved getting the experience in his rookie season. And it's kind of, you know, Damien Williams forced the issue. And if he is involved in, you know, being more of a workhorse, more of a old school LaShawn McCoy role that Andy Reed had, not last year's LaShawn McCoy, that Andy Reed had. Who still had success on the field. Yeah, I mean, I just can't fathom, you know, with the lanes. I talked a lot of

36:26 ↗

trash talk about Damien Williams. I did not think he was a great running back. I thought he was an average running back. He's fast, but he's not something special. And I believe... You would point to LaShawn McCoy's stats last year as evidence of Damien Williams being in a good situation, productive, but not... Yeah, and I would point even more to the Damian Williams stats in the sense that... It's a good thing to point to. He was great for fantasy, but I don't think he was a great running back. Clyde Edwards Aller is more talented.

36:54 ↗

than either of those guys, Lashon at last year or Damian Williams now. And so when he gets the full opportunity, he will be outstanding. I mean, you know, this. What is the ceiling for Clyde Edwards-Aler? Before we move on to the number six on our rankings, what is the actual possibility? Where could he finish? I think the ceiling is number three. I don't think he's going to get the workload to be the number one. But it's, I mean, as high as it gets. Sealing is top three for me. All right. Let's go to number six on our list.

37:23 ↗

Oh, oh, Alvin, Camara. Star Power was not what it usually is for him last year. I think he would have ended up on our consensus ranks ahead of Clyde-Rus-Layer if it wasn't for me. I haven't at eight. Jason has him at four. Mike at six. Last year, just five touchdowns on the ground in 14 games, dealt with injuries, dealt with coming back from injury.

37:48 ↗

81 receptions, which is his required total for three consecutive years on 97 targets. I, the reason I have Alvin Camara lower than, you know, in a different tier than some of the other running backs is simple. It is the same exact reason, although inverse in play style, as why Nick Chubb has a bump down comparatively to these guys. You have two competent, not just a backup situation running backs.

38:17 ↗

in the fold. Alvin Camara is going to catch 80 plus passes. I do not think it is a guarantee that he positively regresses with the touchdown totals on the ground. Latavius Murray will be used, just like Kareem Hunt will be used in Cleveland. And that takes a little bit of the upside away from these players. When you combine that with an injury history where he gets a little bit banged up, he's been concussed. You've dealt with that each and every year with Alvin Camara.

38:44 ↗

not in some great degree where it submarines your whole season, but where, you know, last year it was tough. You saw him come back from injury, and all of a sudden Alvin Camara was giving you a... Yeah, that would be his fantasy finish, not fantasy points. Oh, no. In week 14. And, you know, Latavius Murray was a compliment to this office. This team was great last year. He is a piece of it. So it just takes a little bit of the upside away from Alvin Camara for me.

39:11 ↗

Clearly not for Jason with him at four ahead of Clyde Edwards O'Lear. So I'll hand you the baton. Yeah, I mean, yes, he had a week where he was 55. That was his one week. Interesting to point that out where he was bad after the after he got back from injury. But the other games, you know, 15th, 7th, 8th, 23rd, 5th, 12th, he was always a valuable back. And that was while he wasn't scoring touchdowns. That was while he wasn't scoring touchdowns. He just read everyone off except for the 29.

39:40 ↗

That was while he wasn't scoring touchdowns. The continuity for the Saints is incredible. I don't know that there is a team in the league that has as much continuity, same head coach, same quarterback, same system, the offensive line intact. And this is a guy who's been great forever since he came into the league. And you know, you might worry, oh, the injury, he's missed three games in three years.

40:06 ↗

He's drafted at the same time as Dalvin Cook, who's missed 19 games in three years. Camara is, you know, there is no guarantee that the touchdowns regress to the mean, but the statistical probability says it does. And, you know, he's always been great at scoring touchdown. So I do expect his touchdowns to go up. He is healthy. There's no injury report to read on him, unlike Dalvin Cook's.

40:32 ↗

shoulder injury, which has a frequency of needing another surgery, Dalvin Cook had a high ankle sprain. Once that is fully healed, that's just a thing of the past. So I like the offense. I like the continuity. I like what we've seen his entire career. I would be happy to take him number four. Going into this offseason, I wasn't sure, because we had a bad taste in our mouth, right? Once he got back from injury, he was the running back eight, which is good. But it wasn't like.

41:00 ↗

You know, we're talking about him at the beginning of the first round. Do you want running back eight there? No, you want someone who's top three. But I believe that, one, he was struggling coming back from that injury, same that, you know, happened to Sequin. And the touchdowns just didn't happen to go his way. I don't think that's going to stay that way for Kamara. And for me, it's, I'm not worried about Latavius Murray. Like Alvin Kamara had all of his.

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