Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early RB Rankings Part 1

He is the hardest working guy there. He sets the standard for work ethic. They love him there. And when you watch film, you can't bring the guy down. You know, he is so hard to wrap up and get on the ground. And he's so good at catching the ball. He caught 70 plus passes two years ago. I think his talent and the offense says.

Look, I mean, other than his rookie here where he wasn't the guy and he didn't even have the opportunity, the rest of the time, he's been a top six back. Sometimes you have to adjust your thinking about these other, these backfield tandems too. When he played with Kevin Coleman, he's better. He averaged 20 more rushing yards than without him. He averaged basically, you know, three times as high a chance of a touchdown without him. I mean, sorry, with him, then without him.

He was a better point per reception running back. I mean, everything on paper was better with Kevin Coleman in the lineup. Well, it makes sense, right? Because he's a smaller back. I mean, he's 5-8-206. And that's just one of those things where you can't go out and give the guy 30 carries. He's not going to be efficient. Well, I think it makes sense and it doesn't, right? Because if you think you get the ball handed to you every single play, you think better production. And it's what didn't equate to that. All right, any other thoughts in Devonterman? There's just, there's.

There are some concerns. I have some concerns. I still like Freeman this year, but I'm not as gung-ho as Jason. I mean, Kyle Shanahan is gone. Offensive genius who does spectacular things for quarterbacks and running backs. I mean, he does amazing things. Patrick DeMarco, one of the best run-blocking fullbacks is gone. He's up now with my man Shady in Buffalo. And just the increase of, I know he was better with Coleman.

But there's also, Coleman missed a few games over the course of a full season. They're going to want to get Coleman involved. We've seen that the goal line gets spread out. So it's not just to Freeman. It's not just to Coleman. He lost 20 receptions from two years ago to last year. He still had over 50, which is, I mean, that's a great number. But there are, there's concerns for me of him being a top five fantasy running back next year.

Jordan Howard comes in at number seven on our consensus top 10 running back rankings. He's 22 years old. He finished number 10 last year and 15 games played and was really just incredible, just an incredible rookie running back there. Earlier in this off season, it was easier for me to dismiss some of it. We saw Jeremy Hill have an incredible rookie year. I have come around a little bit. Now, I think Chicago is the second worst team in football.

I think New York, the Jets, will be the worst team in football. They're trying. I think that Chicago is not going to be very good. And I am happy to be wrong. I have no reason to want them to be bad at all. So if you're a Chicago fan, I'm sorry, somebody has to be. In your mind, somebody has to be worse. And I think they're going to be one of the worst. That being said, it is not a requirement for a running back to be.

A top-tier fantasy running back does not have to be on a winning team. It certainly helps. It does. It does help. And it would help Jordan Howard if they were in the red zone more often. I think this team will have inconsistency as kind of the backbone of the team on offense. Mike Glennon comes in. But I really like Jordan Howard. I think the volume is going to be there. I think he's going to become the face of that franchise now, much like David Johnson took it over in Arizona.

It's going to be his backfield. I think he can do enough to be a top 10 back. Now, I don't think he's going to pass. I like him at this spot. I like him at 7-8. That's my take on Jordan Howard. What are your pros and cons of Jordan Howard? Is he a value? Is he more risky? What is your take? He is concerning because.

I'm with you. I like Jordan Howard. Watching him play last year, the guy was an absolute mannimal out there. I mean, he just destroying people. It was second in the league in rushing. He didn't start. He wasn't the starter for the first few games. He was still. Week four is really when he became the starter. Then that's outrageous to be second in the league in rushing. And with 25% of the season, you weren't even the starter. There's concerns, though. The touchdown count.

I know it was at 6, which, you know, maybe it could be higher, but he only actually scored rushing touchdowns in three games because three of those touchdowns were when they annihilated San Francisco, who was basically the worst rush defense in the league last year. But then you go back, there's positives. After those two really down games where it looked like Jordan Howard, oh, well, he's... Oh, you mean where I traded him? Yeah, a lot of people moved on from him. You're like, oh, it was a mirage. And then he went on a tear of 100 plus...

yards from scrimmage for the final nine games. And I fudged it a little bit because one of those games was 99 yards. How dare you, Michael. I rounded him out. But then you look at his snap counts. During that time, he was only averaging 68% of the snaps. So, I mean, he's not even a full-time guy. Yeah, he was hashtag good. That's what I mean. He was- 5.2 a carry. But he was not touchdown dependent. He was so good that they're just.

So good with a limited amount of work and snaps, because, I mean, he had over 250 carries. I don't know. It just, it freaks me out, I guess, maybe because of my, in my past, when I was so ready to anoint Jeremy Hill.

on a limited workload, a two-down guy. Here's one of the things I'm working on in tandem with Brooks, and we're going to get this data and we're going to put it out there. I want to go back and look historically at rookie running backs when they finish as a top 12 and as a top 24 in their rookie year. What do they do they do they do they come out hot because they're great and stay there or do they have that sophomore slump because people are no longer surprised? We're going to get that data. We'll put it out there. Make sure you're following.

uh the show at least at at the f f ballers and we'll get that data to you because i think that's something we you know we need to know every single year and we always forget so we'll have that out there i'm going to serve as an example to our listeners right now number eight on our list is mark ingram on our consensus top 10 my feelings towards mark ingram are so frustrated okay understandably so i'm going to tell you right now i am shocked

I pay attention. I had no idea he was the number nine running back last year. That's because he was one of the most inconsistent. I had him. You dealt with the Tim Hightower effect during last season. Kind of the unpredictable, incredible, incredible.

unknown situation where you didn't know who was getting carries there was a span where he fumbled and then it seemed like he was angry and the team wanted to punish him and it cost him on the field do you not find yourself concerned with that happening you don't have that situation as a possible situation with the top five or six guys on this list and yet mark ingram got in the doghouse last year

yet ended up number nine when it was all set and done. You had that insanely monster game towards the end of the year where he just broke out to give him one carry finally and he took it to the house. Layout, fix me, man. Fix me about Mark Ingram. Tell me what to think. I could say a couple of things. One, New Orleans is a shockingly, like it's so surprising.

how good of a team they are for running backs because you think Drew Brees, you think the passing attack, you don't usually think, oh, that's the running game I want. But as a team, I believe football outsiders rank them as one of the best run blocking, if not, I think it might be the number one run blocking offensive line.

They had the seventh most yards. Year after year after year after year after year, they are almost always leading the league in running back targets in the passing game. And so, yeah, you did have the frustration because Tim Hightower was there. And there were a couple games where it was bizarre. Mark Ingram was running great, looked good on film, looked good statistically. And then it's like, but let's give it to Tim Hightower who looks all right.

He's producing pretty okay. Not even pretty okay. But Tim Hightower currently is not there. He has not signed. I don't expect him to resign. That's not to say he's gone, but I don't think he's going to be back. So Ingram, to me, is a guy that they're paying for, that they're going to use, that has been productive, been efficient. And if Tim Hightower's out of the way, I like him quite a lot.

Yeah, we 46 receptions last year, 50 the year before. That was when everything really changed for the fantasy outlook of Mark Ingram was when he became that caliber, or was used in that caliber of the passing roll. But, I mean, last year, 205 carries over 1,000 yards, ran for over 5 yards a clip. I mean, it's, I'm with you, Andy, that is baffling what Sean Peyton chooses to do.

with Mark Ingram when he chooses to make statements about players. So you're going to have to kind of deal with that. But for me, you're looking at, I say what you're looking at in these tiers of guys, starting really with Jordan Howard, Freeman, I laid out a couple of concerns, but I still feel confident in him. But starting from Jordan Howard down now, for me, all of these guys come with more awards.

Yes, higher question marks, but Mark Ingram being on the Saints offense has tremendous upside. Fantasy points. And he really didn't struggle. I mean, he had a couple games that really punched you in the faces. Yes. And really bad. You're talking knockout. A negative one point two game. That's hard to do. Three for five with a fumble. And then he had a three point game against Tampa, which was unexplainable.

And seven. And still finishes the number nine? I know. I know. And the carry counts in these games. 3-7-7.

I mean, five games under 10. That's not what you hope for from a top 10 running back is five games with under 10 carries. But during those games, it was the Tim Hightower show. And I don't think it was because they hate Mark Ingraham. I think it's because they loved Tim Hightower. I don't get it, but they do. But I mean, look at Atlanta, right? Atlanta had one of the highest powered offenses in the league and as long as we can remember. And they had the crazy running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tavin Coleman.

And so, of course, they scored the most team fantasy points. They had 464.8 fantasy points to the running backs. New Orleans was a hair behind them at 463.8. One point behind them for fantasy points to the running back position. I mean, they're just a great location. All right. Let's talk number nine. He made it in. He made it in. Look, Phook, Lance. You tried your best. I tried my best to keep him out of the top 10, but I could not persevere. Look.

Todd Gurley. Todd Gurley is number nine. Whoa, everybody, you know, you talk about a mental impact that a player can make. Look, Todd Gurley is number nine in the ranks. And you looked back and you saw years from Shady McCoy. He was 16th ranked, 18th ranked last year. We have him down as 17. Todd Gilley was 17 after finishing number seven in 2015 and 13 games. It was a struggle last year. There's no two ways about it.

He basically had more a higher percentage of snaps and participation in that offense than almost anybody in football. And the production, fantasy-wise, NFL-wise, wasn't there. No, not even close. You have, so the top five running backs in total touches, right? There's Todd. There's, there's, you have Lev Bell, David Johnson. I'm forgetting now. Zeke. Todd Gurley's.

Todd Gurley's in there, and DeMarco Murray. Four of those guys were in the top five for fantasy running backs. One of them was 17th. He was top five in total touches. And I mean, that's how bad it was. But that's what you want. Yes. You want top five in total touches. We talk about opportunity is king. But I just, you need to understand contextually just how bad. Todd Gurley was last year. Seven running backs had.