Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early RB Rankings Part 1

What can you say about Ezekiel Elliott rounding out these top three guys? So I took a look at, I went back to 2010 at running backs who have finished with over 1,600 yards, which was a feat that Ezekiel Elliott was able to do. And what I saw is no one really came close to matching.

the a repeat performance in most of these guys so in 2010 foster over sixteen hundred he dropped to the twelve hundreds mj d did it and then he his body fell apart uh alfred morris dropped to the twelve hundreds peterson his uh near career or near record setting season of over two thousand he dropped down at twelve hundred uh so it's not that i don't think elliot will have a spectacular season

But just if you're looking at historical data, guys who have been over 1,600 yards, there's going to be regression there. It's like quarterbacks who go out and throw the 40 plus numbers? Right. You just, you come out and, I don't know, I mean, it's his, none of these guys were in their rookie year. So you're not comparing apples to apples, of course. So sure, Elliot could come out and do it. I'm just, I'm not expecting 1,600 yards, but I am expecting another.

monster season for Elliott. I believe he's, in fact, my number one running back in standard formats. He loses a little bit because he's not going to get the 80 receptions like DJ and Lev Bell if you're in a half or a full point PPR. But for standard, he's my number one guy. Yeah, I, despite the fact that David Johnson had more touchdowns than Zeke, going into 2017, I think Zeke would be the guy I would expect.

to have the most touchdowns between these guys, at least rushing touchdowns for sure. His receiving is, I think, an issue when it comes to what's your upside? And even though he was the most consistent running back this last year, if you were in a half-point format, he never once.

in the entire season did not have double digits, which is incredible. But yeah, I mean, if he regresses on the rushing yards, is he going to make that up? He only had 32 receptions. Is he going to make that up in the passing game? It doesn't seem like what they want to do. However, he was great in the passing game. I mean, he was among the league leaders, if I'm not remembering, right, he might have been the league leader at yards per reception from the running back position. Correct.

Does, you know, for all three of these big running backs, you have a situation where you know that they are locked and loaded as the main guy. They signed Darren McFadden. Dallas did to a contract. There's been talk of maybe Alfred Morris is the odd man out in that situation. McFadden only played two games with Ezekiel Elliott at all last year. He wasn't available. There were only two games in...

You know, the numbers are very similar, pretty much only two receptions a game in or out of the split with Darren McFadden on the field. Slightly more receiving yards without McFadden. But does it concern you at all having McFadden in the mix there? Is there any reason that they would take him off the field? No concerns. No, just like Jason was talking about, in the passing game, does the team want to use him in that three-down roll? And it didn't appear that way.

Okay. All right. Number four. Number four on our rankings ends up with the slippery fish himself. Shady McCoy, LeCoyne McCoy. Look, he's been doing it for a long time, guys. He's been doing it for a long time. He was number four in 2010, number two in 2011, dropped to 18 in 2012, then back up to number two in 2013, 12 in 2014, 16 and 2015. And last year, number four.

All right. Number four. And really, for a guy that we joke about being injury prone, because every time he goes down, it looks like he's torn, like five or six ACLs. He sells his injuries. The Paul Pierce of the NFL. Despite that, I mean, look at games played. He's 15, 15, 12, 16, 16, 12, 15. So it's not been something you should be really...

desperately afraid of yeah when you talk about consistency over a career for running backs it's very hard to find someone as good as shady his eight seasons you just you just laid them out there but here's the way to look at those eight seasons five of the eight he was an rb one he was a top running back the other three seasons right the one of them was his rookie season where i think he had like a hundred touches right he was not very involved yet so that's throw that away the other two

He was still an RB2, so he was valuable, and he only played 12 games in each of those seasons. So he's never been a bad running back. You've got the down years where he goes from 17 touchdowns to, you know, four touchdowns, and so you throw him away because of your expectations, but he's always been good. And when you watch film this last year, I mean, there's a reason we called him the slippery fish, he looks like he still got it. He does, he's got a lot of mileage, but it's not, it's not, so he's got 18.

198 carries, 382 receptions. So that's 2,280 touches, which is a large amount, but running backs don't start to have their rapid decline to after 2,500 touches historically. That's like, that's the red flag area. So that's like this last season, I think we're going to have a good season from Shady.

I believe Shady and DeMarco Murray are the two oldest running backs on our top 10 consensus rankings. I'm curious, did you happen to look at the total carries and touches for DeMarco Murray? Looks like he's at 1,420 attempts and only 268 reception. So neither of those guys, based on what you just said, even less with DeMarco Murray. They're not to that cliff yet. Yeah, that's good to know.

Yeah, exactly, because I think that our perception is a little bit wrong on that. I think about the years that Shady had so many carries, and I worry maybe this is the year he breaks down, but I don't think that the data backs that up. Yeah, and those are the type of things that would push an owner to draft maybe Devante Freeman or Jordan Howard or...

you know, a younger Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon over a DeMarco Murray or LaShaul McCoy simply because they want the new hotness, so to speak, and thinking that they're older than they are. And the point I wanted to bring up is, like Jason said, LaShawn McCoy's touchdowns do bounce all over the place. And last year, if you were LaShawn McCoy owner, such as myself, it felt like Mike Gillisley was stealing every goal line opportunity.

Lashon McCoy had touchdowns from one yard, five, four, and two from three yards out. You get 13 rushing touchdowns. What I'm saying is, Gilly didn't take everything. He took eight of them, though. Well, and that needs to be. I want shady with 21 rushing touchdowns. That has to be factored in. And I say, while I say he didn't take everything, Lashon McCoy only had 31% of the team's rushes from inside the five. And if you want context,

Levy on Bell was at 53%. I mean, he missed some games, but Ezekiel Elliott, you know, the man, he was at 64.7%. So it can be much higher. And I don't know if that will go up. They tendered Mike Gillisley. They're going to bring him back. And Gillisley was great. There is touchdown concerns, but the offensive line, they were best in yards before contact at 2.88 yards. Second place was the Titans at 2.37. So there was a big gap.

between how good Buffalo's line and their scheme was. I think there are several other things to consider. You know, I read an article about LaShawn McCoy and his basically having his touch percentages, you know, going down three years. Rex Ryan is gone. That system is gone. I think it is a, you know, we've been doing the show for a little while now. A little while. A few years.

And I remember when LaShawn McCoy went to Buffalo and the first thing out of, the first giant concern, because I was actually in the fan boy camp for McCoy. And I remember you were in the, you were in the, that offensive line is atrocious camp. And I think it should be a small case, and this is not me saying I was right, but it should teach us that these lines can change quicker than we think they can too.

Because McCoy has been very good for three years in Buffalo. So we need to move on. Let's talk about another 29-year-old elder statesman. DeMarco Murray, another guy who perception isn't reality when it comes to the injury concerns for DeMarco Murray. Now, in the beginning of his career, yeah, he was 13 games, 10 games. Last four years, 14, 16, 15, 16. Last four years, this is overwhelming. I mean, number six in 2013, number two in 2014.

Number 17 in 2015. That was Philadelphia. That was the Eagles year. And then back to number five last year in a power running offense in Tennessee. Exactly what Tennessee wanted from DeMarco Murray they got. Exactly what fantasy owners could have dreamed about they got. I see no reason for this to change, much to the chagrin of any. But Andy? Uh-huh. Gonna take everything over. He's going to have to be patient. He's going to have to be patient because this time has not come. He's a great player.

But his time has not yet come. That's, what's weird about them, I mean, can you imagine in this day and age sitting on a second round running back pick that many years? I mean, that's, when you're the Titans, Aaron Rogers of the, that's madness. When you accumulate as many picks, they're like, whatever, whatever. I guess that's a fair point. You know, big workload.

293 carries 1287 yards and nine touchdowns last year caught 53 passes that was huge was on the field when it was important he is all the time he is an excellent i mean a top pass catching running back we we don't always think of him that way because he's a little bit larger and that's not like he's a bruiser yeah but he is great and always has been since college uh the the entire time in the NFL he has been great which

That leads me to feeling so much more confident in running backs because their game plan proof, when the Titans get down, they need DeMarco Murray out there catching passes. When they're up, they need him killing the clock. I like guys like that. That's my preference. When I'm talking about spending a first or a second round draft pick on a running back, I want them to catch the ball. It's important to me. To speak to that is the fun stat nugget about to Marco Murray. He had...

Merley? Merley. We're on fire today, fellas. He had nearly 23% of the team's red zone targets. I mean, that's outrageous. That was tops for market share for running backs. Wouldn't you think that that will come down, assuming that they put some capital into the wide receiver position, whether it could in the draft. Most of the, most of the free agents have already signed. It just says to me that, you know, if Mario is in trouble in the red zone, he's looking for Murray. Fair.

Devanta Freeman comes in at number six on our consensus running back rankings. He put doubters to shame in 2016. He was the number one fantasy running back. I think the natural and appropriate reaction to that was, hey, the regression has to happen a little bit. This season was off the hook, off the chain. Whatever the young folks said. Whatever the 32 and undercrow says. Number six last year played 16 games.

despite the jersey on the back of a wall here, which has been changed from Antonio Brown to what? Kevin. Kevin Coleman. You've got his theme song already. You changed your pitch, too. You were going high. You were going to compliment Mike, weren't you? Yeah, I mean. But then you took over the lead. So despite Tavon Coleman's involvement in that offense, it seems like keeping Devonta Freeman fresh so that he can then explode has been a.

Pretty nice recipe for the Atlanta Falcons. And look, he's 25 years old. He's been absolutely dominant. We talked earlier in the offseason. They don't have a lot of money wrapped up into those running backs right now. Not yet. Look, he's at number six on our rankings. His ADP right now is around the end of the first round. Is he the best value out of these top six guys? He is my fourth ranked running back ahead of the elder statement.

combo of LaShawn McCoy and DeMarco Murray, you know, when it was his rookie year, there were things on film we just did not like. And I think, Mike, you famously said that DeVant Freeman stinks. Yes. You were wrong. We have issued that apology because. Yeah, that's a famous one. The reality is when you watch film now, what he's done since his rookie year. And when you talk to people in Atlanta,