Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early RB Rankings Part 1

say I tweeted out a meme immediately of a person laughing because that's insanity. Yeah. I mean, without, San's a time machine. Adrian Peterson is not getting paid that kind of money. No, yeah, I agree. But I do think it's worth talking about Adrian Peterson right on the heels of the theoretic news because the Detroit Lions look to me like a possibility of a landing spot for him. They have had him trash their team.

for many, many years on the field. And so I think that is a possible location for him to land, but it certainly will not be frightened. Would you say that Detroit might shoot him? No, shoot at him. Shoot at him? Is that what the, take a shot at him? Take a shot for him. Out of context. That is...

Well, this show, you're with us. You've got the context. And if it's your first time, go listen to the last episode. There you go. Dallas Cowboys tied in. Youngster Jason Witten has signed a four-year extension through 2021. How was that possible? It seems like it was to get his cap number down this year. But this would put him under contract until his year 39. To be honest, I already thought he was 39. So, surprise, he's not.

Also, Josh McCown just received a seven-year contract to play into his 50s. Did you see the report yesterday about Tom Brady saying he could play until his late 40s? I did see that. Right now, it's like, I'm not going to argue against it. I mean, I know Father Time's going to win, but. And Kraft said that Belichick could go into his 80s. Goodness. Let it.

I don't know if I want it to be so or not. At what point do they both go back to the locker room after a game and enter cryo chambers? Is that the side by side? They just enter in, going to hibernation. I imagine they already do. You have to. Tom Brady does whatever it takes to stay fit. He certainly could play. I mean, if you think back to names that played into their 40s, Brett Farve had very productive years in his 40s.

Well, his year 40 season. Vinnie Tessa Verdi was on a roster and playing as a backup at 44. Not a starter. But Brady keeps himself an insane condition. And his, and the passing game there is not, you know, as dependent on, it's a pick apart offense. Right. But it, when it falls apart, it falls apart. It does. Look at Peyton Manning. That's what I was going to say. Peyton Manning is the best example because he was two years removed from.

50 touchdowns and you don't know if an injury could change everything. An injury can make him hang it up tomorrow. And you're at an age where once you get that injury, oh no, my body never bounced back. At what point do defensive ends feel bad about the age of the person that they're hitting? They just come and push them. They're not tackling anymore. They just give them a good two-hand shove.

Gotcha. If you don't know Tom Brady, you don't know ARP. All right. All right. Hey, but we're going to talk right now, early running back rankings. We're going to get into it. Before we do that, I do want to thank our sponsor, pristineauction.com. We were actually over at their place yesterday. Mike was pulling out these sweet team guitars that they sometimes have up on auction where you can grab a guitar. What a cool thing to display.

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All right, guys. Are you ready? I am certainly ready. Running bags. Are you absolutely ready? Yeah. I've been looking forward to these shows. That was the correct. Yeah. Are you absolute ready? As I would say. Yeah, no. You know, these are shows that I think everybody enjoys because you're just going through the players. What's the pros? What's the cons? What's the outlook? You know.

all of these players are going to be fantasy relevant, whether they're good or bad next year. They're going to make an impact. So this is where we start the 2017 season succeeding right here. That works for me. Couldn't have said it better myself. I think what's great about this is our job on this podcast isn't to tell you what to do. It's to equip you to make good decisions. And so when we give you the information on the top three, for example, the Lev Bell, David Johnson, Zeke.

uh guys we're giving you all the information jason broke it down the pros and the cons that that might help you make a pick and then you can apply that to your league settings your league format how your team is made up if it's a keeper or dynasty league those type of things so let's start with number one on our consensus rankings and again we have our early our early rankings up on the fantasy footballers dot com on the website this is a consensus

rank. So this is all three of ours put together, and then this is the order that they ended up in. Levion Bell. Levion Bell ended up as our consensus number one running back. Let me run back his last three years. He was the number one running back in 2014. In 2015, he had the injuries, okay? I only played six games. And then last year, 2016, he ended up number three despite playing 12 games.

That's correct? That is correct. That's incredible. Yeah, he was just barely behind 0.3 fantasy points per game behind David Johnson, despite 11 fewer touchdowns on the season than David Johnson. So, I mean, look, Leveon Bell is, he's the goat when it comes to running backs. He's done it for years. He had more yards on the ground than David Johnson despite, you know,

four less games. He only had five less catches. That was eye-opening to me, by the way. Right? The on-the-ground numbers despite the three less games. But I think the main issue that you have to have here, if you're talking about Levi-on-Bell, when we talk about these top three, we're nitpicking a little bit, but you have to worry about how many games is he going to play. He's only played a full 16 games once, and over four years, he's averaged 11.75 games per year. That stinks.

That's not good. You've got injuries. You've got suspensions. You know, if you're talking about draft capital of the 101, the first pick in the draft, I like being risk averse. And that's why on my personal rankings, Love Bell is not number one. He's our consensus. But I do have David Johnson number one right now. Yeah, Levy on Bell, his pace, just so you can get a context of what he had, what he was doing last year. He was on pace for.

Just under 1,700 rushing yards and over 800 receiving yards. I mean, that is just, that's not sustainable. In my opinion, I'm not expecting that to happen next year. But what I like about Levi-on-Bell and of these big three is just the reliability of when he's actually on the field, but he doesn't have to have these outrageous touchdown numbers to give you.

monster production every single week. He doesn't even have to have outrageous rushing numbers every single week because his reception totals are so high. Yeah, and his usage, it will remain the same if he's out there. Mike Tomlin, the way we've seen how he likes to use the running back when it wasn't Levi-on-Bell. It was DeAngelo Williams, and despite DeAngelo Williams' age, Mike Tomlin still funneled everything through him. So that's just how the offense is going to run. Levy on Bell is...

is a stud, but he has his concerns. If he plays 16 games, he's the number one running back. He'll be number one. Look at the context of this. If you look at his 2016 season, okay, he averaged 161.6 yards from scrimmage per game. From 1932 until now, that is the second best in history. Not sustainable. Who's in history? You have number one over there? Yes.

Priest Holmes averaged 163.4 yards from scrimmage per game in 2002. That was a good year. Right after him is O.J. Simpson. Then you've got a couple Marshall Falk years, a Jim Brown year, another Marshall Falk year. That was, see, it's always hard to say it's not sustainable because that could be the reason to take what's the ceiling? It's second best yards from scrimmage per game ever. So I think we've laid out.

the decisions to be made there with Libyan Bell, the difference making impact, but the games he misses. The games he misses might not matter. Number two on our consensus running back rankings is David Johnson. David Johnson. He is 25 years old. Last year, the number one running back. Played a full 16 games. Got injured in the last week of the season. Scared everybody to death. It's totally fine.

In 2015, he was the eighth overall. That was his rookie year. What more can you say about the Kekog in the Arizona offense? He can catch the ball. He can run the ball. And he scores. And those numbers, the touchdown numbers, they're high. They could come down a little bit. But he's in a position in that offense to keep it going.

Yeah, I mean, with the way he takes care of his body and his age and his workload on his tires, so to speak, I'm not worried about... So to speak. I'm not worried about him breaking down as much as other top running backs. I feel like he is the safest. He's matchup proof. If they're down, he is probably... I mean, I guess Larry Fitzgerald might be better, but keep in mind, pro football focus. Their number one wide receiver...

rated this last year was David Johnson, who is a running back. I mean, this is a guy that, yes, he had 20 touchdowns, which is both a pro and a con, right? He's got a nose for the end zone, but that's almost certainly going to regress a little bit. But whether you were playing against a good defense, a bad defense, you're up, you're down, no matter what, he is going to.

score. He, I mean, he would have had 16 games of over 100 scrimmage yards and set the record last year if he didn't get injured in the opening. He tied the record. Is that correct? Yes. Do you make a decision with David Johnson in Lev Bell in a dynasty league that is impacted by the contractual situation of Levian Bell at all? Does that affect you? Because I think they're the same age. Yeah. And so does it affect you knowing that David Johnson will be in Arizona, you know,

for the next couple of years at least, versus Levi-on-Bel being franchised and not having a long-term deal. I don't think, man, that's an excellent question. Because I feel like Bell will be back.

with the Steelers personally. But we don't know. Yeah, and it's not a given. Both situations have quarterback issues, right, where Carson Palmer's not going to be, this will probably be his last year. But Ben Rothlisberger, how many years is he going to be playing? I don't know. He thought about retiring this year. Did you hear that? Yes. They're the same age, but obviously Levy on Bell has a lot more usage in the NFL. So I lean more towards David Johnson if we're talking Dynasty. Do you know that David Johnson? How much money is Levyon Bell making this year?

He was 12? Eight, I think. I think it's 12 million. I don't know. But very high, yes. Eight to 12. It's in that eight to 12 million range. Give or take a couple million dollars. What's a couple million dollars? You know what David Johnson is going to make this year? Oh, man. I'm guessing $600,000. $639,000. Yeah. Well, third round pick. Yeah. Yeah. He's under contract in 2017 and 2018 becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2019 if they don't have it.

an extension, which I assume they will work on, and hopefully get him paid a little bit earlier than that. So let's move to number three. You know his name, Ezekiel Elliott. What a rookie year for Ezekiel Elliott. It ended up number two in 15 games played, was an absolute beast and really got it going after the first few weeks of the season. Dominant.