The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs: Part 1 + Hitman & Hit Rates - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/1

conversations are so strange because the man has never, he has never fallen under a thousand receiving yards for a season. This year, 74, 135, he just made it, but 14, 14 receiving touchdowns. He had a consistency rate. He was number eight, which that lines up. He was the fantasy wide receiver number eight.

25% great, 63% good, and we will combo him. Let's talk about Chris Godwin, who in 14 games, 98 for 11005, finished as the wide receiver 17, missed, you know, three games there at the end with the enforcement torn ACL was consistently, was the consistency rank of number 12. How do we feel about these guys, how do you feel about their season?

So the truth. Where are you also then factoring in next year? Yeah, the truth backwards. The truth of 2021. There you go. The truth backwards. Was that they were very, very good. They were consistent, especially, you know, looked like it was going to be a three-headed monster with Antonio Brown. But the injury and shenanigans kept him off the field, as they say. I think they were very, very good.

going forward, it's a completely new world. And I believe you and I are going to disagree on Mike Evans. Chris Godwin, we can't even really talk about because we don't know where he's going to play football. I think he's gone. Yeah, I would agree. Their cap situation is bad. If Brady is gone, I think Godwin will be gone. Yeah. And so that's one of those where we couldn't prognosticate a future for Godwin. But we can for Mike Evans. Assuming Chris Godwin is not back and Brady is not back.

You've got him all alone. You've got him to where he could have 150 plus targets. You know, this year he only had 114 targets. He's only 28 years old, but he's 28 going on 45, it feels like. He's just been in the league forever. And so it's a question of, do you believe the talent of Mike Evans and the target market share that he'll have will overcome a bad quarterback? Or do you think 28-year-old Mike Evans just barely squeaking in the thousand with Brady?

Now getting a downgraded quarterback is probably going to be not a great fantasy asset. That's where I lean right now. I think that Mike Evans, I think he threw it out there. He's 28 years old. He's, is he really under contract for four more years? Yes. What? What did this, what contract did this man sign? That agent is awesome. I hope he got enough up front that it's not, whatever, it still compares.

I think if Mike Evans is the only showing down, and it's Kyle Trask, I think you're seeing more than 150 targets. I think you're talking about the 160 plus where, I guess, we're in 17 games now, so maybe even 170, where the offense will have to go through Mike Evans. They are going, Gronk is going to be gone. O.J. Howard is, he was on his fifth year option, right?

I'm just kind of... He's out. Yeah, he's going. Is he back? I do not know. Chris Godwin, likely gone. Antonio Brown? Super old. Antonio Brown gone. Yeah, it's Evans. It is just him. And while I prefer to have a Hall of Fame quarterback throwing it to my fantasy wide receiver, I think that Mike Evans, he's going to be very interesting to watch because he will, he's had this thing where he just, he has,

tumbled where there's almost a name fatigue with Mike Evans and you want to get excited about oh Chris Godwin he's the new hotness Chris Godwin's an excellent wide receiver but a thousand yards every single year and a player who's if he's in the right situation can easily surpass 10 plus touchdowns so the question is just where are you feeling about him like are you feeling him still on the top

10 or outside? Definitely outside. You say 10 plus touchdowns. He obviously has the ability to do that, but you've got to have a quarterback that can do that. And if you look here at the quarterbacks we've talked about, right? I mean, Tom Brady for these guys. Is James Winston a good quarterback? James Winston is a great fantasy quarterback. You will throw pick sixes. Is he a good quarterback?

Well, I think he is a, yeah, I mean, he was a number one draft pick overall. I would say James Winston is a good quarterback, not a great NFL quarterback, but he can certainly, I mean, he had 5,000 yards. Yeah, he's a good quarterback. He had 30 interceptions, but that's what helped him throw for 5,000 yards. But think about the wide receivers we talked about here so far. You had Tom Brady, you have thrown to these guys, you have.

Josh Allen throwing a digs. You got Patrick Mahomes. You got Joe Burrow. You've got Aaron Rogers. Matthew, like they've all got good quarterbacks other than Jimmy Garoppolo. But again, that's what gives me confidence in Debo. It's like you just can't tackle him. It's not Jimmy Garoppone. Because the play is Debo, do something. Yeah. Debo, now the light switch on the wall.

Quick, hit it. All right. Number nine was Deontay Johnson, who this is a massive wildcard. Big Ben did retire. He will not be coming back. As of right now, Deontay Johnson's quarterback is Mason Rudolph. Maybe Dwayne Haskins will, I don't know, but it could be somebody else. But right now, at the time of this recording,

It's Mason Rudolph. What do you make of Deonti Johnson do? 75% of his games were good. He never had any explosive games, but we understand that because Big Ben could not produce an explosive game anymore. His splits were fantastic. There's no outliers where he just smashed home games against bad defenses. How are you feeling about Deontay Johnson? I think.

when, I think his rookie year, that was the Mason Rudolph year, and he led the team in receptions, if I'm remembering that correctly. I'll vet that while you talk. Yeah, vet that while I talk. I will say this, Deonté Johnson, for you producers back there, he is Stefan Diggs, just not drafted as high. Like, he did the same thing. Where you drafted Deonti Johnson, you're like, oh, Deonti Johnson was great. I loved having them. It pretty much had the same thing. It just didn't cost as much. Deonti Johnson, I don't believe, can be.

extremely relevant without Big Ben. They're not going to allow a non-Big Ben quarterback unless obviously they're bringing in a Rogers. They're not going to allow him to throw the ball anywhere near the same rate as they were allowing Big Ben to throw the ball. And then you have Ben, who has quite the history of really hyper-targeting his number one. You know, he's got Antonio Brown. He's just going to keep going there. And that's what he did with Deonti Johnson, 170 targets.

You have a smaller passing total and then probably less of a inclination to only force feed one guy. And I think Deontay Johnson's good, but he is not someone I think that's going to have a great fantasy season with a Mason Rudolph. So rookie year Deontay Johnson, he did lead the team with 59 receptions. Second was Jalen Samuels at 47. That was the Mason Rudolph year.

That was the Mason Rudolph. Yes. But again, 59 receptions. So you could say led the team, but who cares? 92 targets is nice. Wish that turned into more risk. Like a guy like Deontay who's getting 92 targets, that should be. Yeah, but they were Mason Rudolph targets. Right. So that'll be a big question mark. The whole Pittsburgh situation is very up in the air of, have you heard?

Like, do you have any rumors from the bushes of a quarterback going there? No. Just, just Mason Rudolph, just sadness. It really is. Everything at least out of, out of Pittsburgh that, you know, that I've seen or read has all been that they're going to go forward with Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins, maybe look in the draft. Please don't.

They said, I remember, and this is probably why two years ago or whenever it was a year and a half ago, you said you think Aaron Rogers was going to go to Pittsburgh because they said they have a plan. Didn't they say that? They said, like, we have a plan for after Big Ben. If your plan was Mason Rudolph, then you have a bad plan. No, they have a plan to rebuild. Yeah. I mean, Mason Rudolph is the worst.

is the worst in every conceivable way, not just football. I just, oh man, that guy, I can't look at him without getting the hebi-jeebies. Okay, your radar. My radar just goes, I don't like that guy. I mean, you see his smug little face? Just, oh, yeah. And I say little face because I've seen him next to Big Ben, you know. Oh, yeah, of course. Real Phil's the helmet. Of course. He's got a lot of helmet to fill.

Pittsburgh, please. Deonti Johnson, Chase Claypool, Naji Harris. That's a trifecta of fantasy goodness that needs to thrive. And the muth. Oh, no. It's going to be so tight with Mason Rudolph. How does a muth get luth when it's Mason Rudolph? I wanted to find like a Ruth doll. There's got to be something between a, you know, a Rudolph.

The red nose reindeer and a mute. All right. We got to put that in the workshop. We'll get to that later, Buckland. We're going to, we're going to dive deep on that. All right. Let's close out the show with these two wide receivers. Mike Williams, Keenan Allen of the Los Angeles Chargers. Mike Williams somehow, is he really number 10? Yeah. Somehow finishes the season as the number 10 wide receiver with 44% of his games being a bust.

But the beginning of that season was just so magical and created such disappointment for the rest of it as you saw what he could possibly be. Finishes the year with 129 targets 76 for 11, 46, and 9, which still a tremendous return on fantasy draft position because he was in the 11th round, the wide receiver 48, even with dealing with all of those games. You had to have been...

Super stoked that you drafted him. And then Keenan Allen, just doing his thing, man, wide receiver 14, but a consistency rank of seven, really turned it on in the second half. It felt like he was always just short, though, just short, and that is measured in his metrics of zero percent of his games were great. Zero percent. You didn't get that explosive game. He only busted 19 percent of the time, but...

He was good 69% of the time. He is Keenan Allen. Nice. He's fantastic. Thank you. So what do you make of these two guys moving forward? I guess Mike Williams, we don't even know if he's going to be on the team. Do we hope he leaves so that Keenan Allen can be elite again? No, I don't think so. I think you want the offense to continue to grow, and I think you want Mike Williams back. He'll test the free agent market, but I'll bet Mike Williams comes back. You could get franchised.

Yeah, I mean, the inconsistency of Mike Williams was devastating. This was, if you remember back in the day, you know, the first month of the season and this was like a tip to remember from last year was when those, when the first month has nuclear wide receivers, maybe move them for that prime value. Now, obviously, if you did that with Cooper Cup, you're sad. You're sad because he kept going the rest of the year. But for the most part, a lot of these guys who did go.

nuclear at the beginning of the year. Um, hopefully you did, DJ Moore was the wide receiver four. Mike Williams was the wide receiver five. Tara McLaurin was the wide receiver six. Even Tyreek was the wide receiver too. Like the inconsistency of wide receivers, which we've talked about a lot, says that if they are really consistent at the beginning of the year, odds are that that will be their best stretch. Now Cooper Cup broke everything. Um, but I, you know,

As far as going forward, Keenan Allen is someone I will always draft. I will always be confident in. He just gets too many targets. It's too good at football, too good at routes. And I'll never expect him to be a top five wide receiver. He is the best wide receiver two for your team. The Chargers do have the second most cap space. So they could, it can easily franchise Mike Williams and absorb.

that large of a contract. They could make a splash. I don't, there's no good. No, there's no free age. I mean, it's like it's Chris Godwin, but he's coming out for torn ACL. Who knows when he's going to be ready to go? Oh, you got juju. Oh, wait, he's coming off of a massive injury as well. But he played, right? That's true. He did get back at the end of the year. But he, we don't, you don't, you don't, you do not need juju and Keenan Allen existing in the same space. That would be, that'd be the Spider-Man gift.