The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs: Part 1 + Hitman & Hit Rates - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/1

Right. You know, I remember people, you know, the halfway point, like, do you drop T. Higgins? Because Higgins started the season bad. Yeah. And then Higgins was great at the second half of the season where Chase let people down most of those weeks until the nuclear playoff weeks. And so there is a question of can they both do it at the same time. And I think they absolutely can. Going forward.

Burrow going into year three, being fully removed from the beginning of the year where he was dealing with the knee injury. I was thinking about this. The comp to me for these two guys is the 2008 Larry Fitzgerald and Quan Bolden. Anquam Bolden was the reliable third down guy like the possession receiver. He finished that year as the wide receiver seven. He was not the flashy guy though. No, no, the big play guy, the playmaker was Larry Fitzgerald.

who finished that year as the wide receiver won. And so I think this, you know, look, they got to the Super Bowl. They're not going to come out next year and be more run heavy and less dependent on Burrow. They are going to continue the transition to it being Burroughs team, and not that they will abandon the run by any means, but when they allow him to throw the ball five, ten more times a game, I think Jamar Chase and T. Higgins are both going to be great.

Higgins will probably be the better value in drafts. That will be interesting, yeah. You know, I could easily see both of these guys being top 12 wide receivers next year. Their target share was very close. We're talking 23.9 to 23.7. Higgins just edging out Jamar Chase. But Chase, you know, it's the second most fantasy points by a rookie wide receiver behind only Randy Moss, third most 20-plus yard targets. I mean, he's not 22.

Jamar Chase is not 22 years old. He can barely drink. And this is what he has done on a professional football field. And the stupid thing is, like, kind of like Debo, where you just feel like, I don't understand it. Like with him, you get these little screen passes or just, you better not miss a step, man.

You just can't miss a step with Chase because any play, there's all these plays where he catches the ball either a screen or maybe it's just 10 yards, 12, 15 yards across the middle. And there's guys around him. He's not wide open. It's not like Justice Jefferson where he's just out there in no man's land and he just disappeared. But if you don't get him immediately, those jets, he's gone. He's just so fast.

Speaking of fast, the number six wide receiver on the year was Tyreek Hill with a consistency rank of 25. Oh, 29% of his games were great. That's fantastic. That's a good number. That's what I want. But he busted 41% of the time, including a stretch run from weeks 13 through 18, where he was a top 40, a top 40 wide receiver.

Once. Now he was number two on the week against the Los Angeles Chargers in week 15. But other than that, during that run, he, I mean, he went full Beastie Boys and sabotaged your team. It was, it was horrific. You're talking about on the season. What do you make of it? Because wasn't he like?

the most consistent what was his consistency last year so here's i thought it was great yeah it was i remember right it was pretty good last year the year prior if i'm if i'm remembering this right was bad um he he was one of those guys where um you've got a lot of variance because he's always been oh yeah we got it thank you kyle points it out tyreek was the number two wide receiver last year on the year but number one inconsistency yeah and but the year prior yeah

He was bad at consistency because he hasn't been a volume guy. This super weird thing that I can't wrap my head around that makes no sense whatsoever is that his previous career high was 87 receptions. And this year he had 111. He dominated. Far more consistent this year, right? What? How does that make any sense? It's like I can't wrap my head around how he was more targeted.

More receptions and so much less consistent. The second half of the year would just have destroyed you. So, and you saw it in the playoff game, you see these little disappearing stretches. And Pringle and McCle Hall-Hardman, they're stepping up a little bit more. But Kelsey's getting older. So what is the truth about Tyree Kill? Should we be in on him and just assume, look, that's a bad stretch. He's had bad stretches before. But like last year, he was the most consistent.

an absolute dominator. He's got Patrick Mahomes. He's currently only 27 years old. He's not lost speed or talent. So what is the truth about Tyrico? The name I want to comp, since we're, of the guys we've already talked about next year, Debo or Tyreek Hill? I think that is a very fair conversation to have. And I'm not sure. I think at this point, I would probably go Tyreek Hill because I'll just.

I'll let the tiebreaker be betting on the quarterback, where as much as I'm very excited to watch Trey Lance play football and be a fantasy football quarterback, he'll still essentially be a rookie quarterback out there. So I'll let Mahomes break that tie for me, but it's, I don't feel a strong, strong conviction about that. Where are you at if you're staring it down, Tyree Kill or Debo?

I'm the exact same. It's really hard and it will feel stupid if he ends up kind of doing what he did at the end of this year. Early in the season, people were counting out the chiefs a little bit saying they had been figured out. Their offense was sputtering. Because they had. Right. But then they fixed that part of it. They really did. And I'm going to trust Andy Reed. I'm going to trust Patrick Mahomes. You know what's interesting, though? Let me pull up their game logs to make sure I.

I'm quoting this right, but like in that group of games where it feels like, it felt like they had been figured out, Tyre Kiel was still thriving for fantasy purposes, because it was right in the middle of the season. And Tyreek Hill, you know, through week 11, from games like week four through week 11, he was solid. He wasn't.

elite, elite Tyree Kill, but there's only like one terrible game in there. And then they figured things out after the buy week where they're scoring 30 plus points a game, the Kansas City Chiefs. And yet Tyreek Hill was not part of that production except for the one game. Yeah. And so that's where you question. Very bizarre. Are they?

Are they saying, okay, defenses are locking in on hill? We're going to go elsewhere, and they were fine doing that. I mean, because here's the downside. Let's say you take Tyreek over Debo. The downside, from the last seven weeks of the year, guess where Tyreek was wide receiver, what? Over last seven weeks? Yeah, that's almost half the season. You know. I mean, he had to have been outside the top 12.

He was wide receiver 45. Oh, what? During that stretch. Oh, no. He was bad. He was literally, he had one awesome game and the rest were all duds. And so there feels like there's risk there. And when I was here's what's so funny. So this is how fickle we are. I'm watching this game this last weekend. And Tyreek has let all the Tyreek managers down. They all felt it. If you had him, you were like, oh, man, you're maybe a little bit more worried.

And when I watched the first half of that playoff game, I thought to myself, I'm going to go trade for Tyreek in any dynasty league I can because the dude still has it. He's still got Mahomes. And the managers are going to have felt that wide receiver 45 type of finish. Sure. And maybe I can actually acquire Tyree Kill because you usually can't. You can't just go out and get one of those top three type of dynasty wide receivers. And then the second half happened and I go, I don't know. Should I acquire him?

But again, usually that's when you should. Yeah, 27 years old, still fast, still great. Andy Reed, Patrick Holmes. I'm still in on Tyreek Hill. Number seven wide receiver on the year was Stefan Diggs. This year for Stefan Diggs, very strange, very strange. So let's work through this together of how to truly feel about his season. Because let's go, we'll play the game, Jason. Stefan Diggs.

had a what year for fantasy football? I would say Stefan Diggs had a good year for fantasy football. Good, okay. But that's because... How many teams did you have Stefan Diggs on? I had him in zero. If you drafted Stefan Diggs, you feel like he had a horrific year because he was not what you hoped. Like, it's all a matter... He was the third wide receiver off the board. It's all a matter of draft capital, right? If he had gone...

where he went last year in drafts. You know, if you, if you were getting him in the fifth round and he did what he did, you'd be like, league winner, but obviously you had to pay up for him this year. And even though he had the same, I think he was within one target of his numbers the previous season, you know, it was, yeah, he had 165 targets this year, 166 last year, still was a top 10 wide receiver, but he just didn't have the big monster blowup dominating games.

I don't think you should be disappointed. And I know that the two producers back there right now, Kyle and Brooks, I think they hate Stefan Diggs. I think that they are so mad at Stefan Diggs and they're so disappointed. Am I correct that you guys are very down on his season? So mad. Okay, that's Kyle Brooks. Yeah, pretty mad. Yeah, and I don't think you should be.

I don't, I mean. Jason's going to tell you how you're supposed to feel. The, the truth is the rest of your roster is what really let you down. I mean, a hundred receptions, 1,200 yards, 10 touchdowns, pretty consistent. He just didn't have the monstrous blowup games. Yeah, some numbers to highlight that. This year, he had 6% of his games were great. Last year, 31%.

This year, 53% of his games were good. Last year, 81%. Like he was, not only was he rock solid, but he also gave you some boom games. Of his 165 targets that you talked about, though, only 118 were deemed catchable, which that's not great. Stop throwing the ball away towards Diggs. So there was a, there was a bit of a disconnect there between Diggs and Josh Allen compared to last year.

So, okay, Jason, you're on the side of Stefan Diggs had a good fantasy football season. Are you drafting him? Let's go through the, okay, I won't start at Cooper Cup. Diggs or Debo? Debo. DeVante Adams with no Adams. Oh, oh, oh. Say that again. With no Aaron Rogers. I would take Stefan Diggs for sure. Jefferson with Kirk Cousins. Jefferson.

And that's where you follow up and say Jefferson without Kirk Couss. No, this is my game and I will run it how I see fit. This is your show. Jamar Chase. Oh, Chase for sure. And Tyreek? That's the question. So I was going to put this back to the producers. Tyreek Hill scored more fantasy points than Stefan Diggs did this year. Who would you have rather had this season? Tyreek Hill.

Or Stefan Diggs. You had the, you know, it's like if you're just disappointed that Stefan Diggs didn't have the great games. Well, Tyree Kill, a third of his games were great. So would you rather have had a Tyree kill than a Stefan Diggs this last year? For me, Hill was too, he had too much bust in the second half.

Yeah, exactly. I would go for digs in that case. That's my point is, like, I don't think people should be disappointed in digs because if you score that exact amount, I mean, they almost had the same amount of fantasy points. So it's either you got to, it's user choice. You know, it's like when you do that roster construction, you make a character and you have a certain amount of points to put in different categories. You have that many fantasy points. You can divvy them up to the games, however you see fit. I think in the end, you would probably.

divvy it up like Stefan Diggs had and not like Tyreek had, where it was all really good games and really bad games. It was consistent, just didn't win you weeks by himself. I would divvy them up all into the first six weeks and then trade him. That's genius. That's great. All right. At number eight, Mike Evans, just, Mike Evans, he just keeps getting it done. No matter. Like, I mean, the Mike Evans.