The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs: Part 1 + Hitman & Hit Rates - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/1

of a new quarterback coming into one of these locations unless they are an Aaron Rogers type. Does that count Russ? That counts Russ and it even counts because this is my line. The bottom of that line is Kirk Cousins. Okay. Kirk Cousins counts. Jimmy Garoppolo does not count. Jimmy Garoppolo goes to Carolina. I'm not going to be like, oh, DJ Moore, he's going to finally have a competent quarterback. Not going to happen because as good as DJ Moore is, they can tackle him.

unlike Debo Sammy. Right. You can't tackle that man. Jimmy Garoppolo carries a cap hit of nearly $27 million, but he can be cut for $1.4 million. That will be very interesting to see if they're able to pull off another Alex Smith type of a trade. I think they got like two twos for Alex Smith. They'll definitely get something for Jimmy, but I'm saying can they with that money or?

Yeah, they can because I think whoever trades for him will restructure, sign a new deal, spread that out a little bit. I mean, you look at Kirk Cousins right now. He's on the cap for like $40 million or something. So I think they'll get something for Jimmy G. And if not, he'll sign in free agency. News and notes from around the league. All right. Tom Brady. Oh, man. To be or not to be, that is the question. Adam Schaefter.

Just smashing the door open a few days ago, tweeting out that Adam Schefter and Jeff Darlington are reporting, Tom Brady is retiring this thing. Of course, instantly viral. It is immediately everywhere. But then we start getting some pushback, including Tom Brady's agents, who has said that the decision has not yet been made.

Ian Rappaport tweeted. He's saying Brady will retire, but there's some pushback because of the timing. I would, I mean, this is a tough situation because, number one, Tom Brady, I think clearly respects the game of football. And he's like, I'm out. The Bengals, the Rams, they're going to the Super Bowl. Let's make the Super Bowl about them. And then as soon as that game is done,

then I can steal all the headlines and I can just be Tom Brady for a month. Unfortunately, the news got out there. So how are you, how are you feeling about this? Well, any, any chance he doesn't retire? There's enough chance that is he a spiteful enough man? No, I think that, you know, even if he does retire, I'm not dropping him in a Dynasty League yet, you know, that itch or any kind of, any kind of.

hope to come back. I would hold him for a little while to see if maybe injuries or something going into next season would happen. We're recording this the afternoon before it releases. A few hours from now is Tom Brady's live show on Sirius XM. And I think that there's a good chance he comes out and officially establishes it himself. So maybe last night he did come out and officially retire. But I do think he's retiring.

It was shocking, and honestly, I was really, really surprised, because we all know it's going to happen at some point. I was really surprised how, like, sad I was. I was like, whoa, that, wait, no more Tom Brady. Is that because you had Tom Brady is your Dino QB1? No, but I've got, you know, Godwin and Mike Evans a couple places. It certainly factors into it. The selfishness.

definitely factors into fantasy goodness from Tom Brady, fantasy goodness from his receivers. But also, I don't know football without Tom Brady. Like I was never. Right. I wasn't a football fan 25 years ago when the NFL didn't have Tom Brady or at least not serious enough to care. So it's just going to be wild to not have him a part of the NFL. We'll be talking about Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

a little bit later in the truth. We'll jump into some dino value of them. But that, if it is true, which I'm assuming Tom Brady, I think it's true that he's going to retire, what in the world happens there? Tampa Bay, you got your Super Bowl, but I can tell you as a team that had Bruce Ariens as our head coach, when Bruce knows that things are going to go south, Bruce, Bruce, Bruce, Bruce, Bruce, Bruce,

He will also retire at the drop of a half. I think he's going to give it one more a year, but I think I will be shocked. Like I will be blown away if he's here two years from now. And like Leonard Fournett, where it felt like, holy crap, dynasty value from the garbage up to he's probably a top 15 guy right now because he's going to be, he'll likely resign.

But even now if he does, what's his value? It's going to be crazy. My favorite landing spot for Brees Hall was Tampa because he is it still. No, of course not. Because without Tom Brady, that offense is not going to be clicking. I like Kyle Trask. I like to the college tape of Kyle Trask, but he's a non-first round NFL rookie pick this last year. Like he's he's not expected to be anything great and certainly not someone I would bank on for the fantasy value of ancillary weapons.

The Giants have named former Bill's offensive coordinator Brian Dable as their new head coach. I think it's a good hire. The Raiders hired Patriots O.C. Josh McDaniels. Now, this one is interesting. We weren't sure when if Josh McDaniels would take the leap again after a bit of a debacle in the Denver Broncos. And then after that, the Patriots were still willing to take him back.

It will be fascinating to see how he does for the Las Vegas Raiders. More coaching news. Everything is still kind of shifting. The landscape has not fully settled. We do a coaching changes show that's sometime at the beginning of March. I know that Flores, Brian Flores, was interviewing with the Texans very soon. By the time you hear this, maybe something has happened. Not sure. And that will be fascinating to watch.

what happens then with Deshaun Watson as well. Yeah, we'll break into how that's going to affect the fantasy outlooks of all these teams because these are massive changes. When you bring in a coach, you go from a defensive guy to an offensive guy or vice versa, they have major impacts. You know what I didn't realize until just now is that McDaniels will be going back to the division where he failed so hard at. But they also, they brought in his.

best friend from the Patriots to run as the GM. So at least we know that there's going to be some congruent thought from the top down there. McDaniels at least gave us Tebow time. That's, was that McDaniels? Oh, man. Yeah, where he like. So he won playoff games. Kind of got duped. But the story goes that he was led to believe by Belichick that Tim Tebow was going to be a.

hot draft pick. I don't know. I don't know if it's true or not. It's just that's a fun story to tell. I think that does for the news. Do you got anything else that we didn't cover yet? No, we'll get into so much more news here on the next episode. I'm sure we'll have more coaching information. You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers. I want the truth. You can't handle the truth. I haven't said hello to the cardboard bear extraordinaire, Jay Gris, but he's holding the down over there.

Doing great work. Yeah, I mean, he's, he is as steady as they come. Yeah, don't move. He doesn't move. He doesn't move. He's just a real still presence for our studio. All right, up on the way. Yeah, you can't make him flinch. There's nothing. Up on the article, the website right now, a 25 wide receiver statistics from Aaron Larson. These are really fun articles. I encourage you. Go check it out, the fantasy football bars.com.

This is a fascinating group of wide receivers because the truth we talked about last year, we prognosticate a little bit into next year. But a lot of these guys in this list have massive, massive variables that could go either way of continue their dominance or like, what the heck do you do with...

Justin Jefferson if Kirk Cousins does in fact leave. And it's just they tear this thing down to the nubs and you have a rookie QB. Not that Jefferson goes to nothing, but it's. Can Adams? Does he maintain being a top five guy? So let's get into it. We alluded to it at the top of the show. Cooper cup a cup of coffee. Holy crap. He was very good. 59% of the time, 59% of the time he was great.

94% of his games were at least good or better. He had one finish, one finish outside the top 24. Yeah, and, you know, and in that game, you know, it was like nine half PPR fantasy points. So it wasn't, he didn't crush you. It wasn't a bust. And he was, I mean, he was so good. Look, the consistency metrics on him, he was the most consistent wide receiver. No.

No surprise. But if you look at just the first half of the year, he was the most consistent in the first half, but in the second half, he was also the most consistent. He was as rock solid as it comes. And then, I don't know if you have followed in the playoffs. I have. He's been very good. He has been very good. He is the fourth wide receiver ever to win the Triple Crown, which means most receptions, most yards, most touchdowns, joining Jerry Rice, Sterling Sharp and Steve Smith.

His splits against top defenses, against bottom defenses, it's within a fraction of a point. His home is road splits within an even smaller fraction. Like he was just so outrageously good that if you took away all of his touchdowns, all 16 of his touchdowns, all 16s of his touchdowns, he would still be the wide receiver five because. What?

Because he finished the season with 145 catches, nearly 2,000 yards. So I put out a tweet, you know, several weeks ago about he is my clear number one. Next year, like, Cooper Cup is the number one wide receiver. And I was blown away by the amount of people that thought I was crazy or that that was hot take. He just had the best wide receiver season.

Of the modern era, like, you know, I don't know. Maybe Jerry Rice had a couple better seasons, but... He had the best season in the history of our truth metrics. Yes. I mean, he was unbelievable, and it's the connection with Matthew Stafford that gets that done. Matthew Stafford's not going anywhere. Cooper Cups not going anywhere. He will be my number one pick next year at the wide receiver position. I don't blame you. He...

As we go through these names, you'll see it. That his situation next year is status quo. I mean, you can, oh, Robert Woods is coming back. Right. Come on. So what? He was fantastic what Robert Woods was on the field. Yes, he was. Like, does Beckham come back? I don't know. And I don't, I don't care. Who cares? I don't care for Cooper Cup. Matthew Stafford has these connections with.

wide receivers and they are the go-to guys, 191 targets. I don't blame you for a Cooper Cup being your number one guy. I don't, I mean, I'm probably there because I'm just off of the top of the dome here. But he was so fantastic and so consistent. Boom games just never hurt you.

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