Dynasty Trade Targets, Draft Strategy, Saquon Value Check - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/13

Okay. I like it. All right. I'm jumping in with a lower tier player that you are trading for in the hopes that he becomes something. I like it. Have I a man? This is mind-blowing stuff here. I'm talking about Adam Troutman, tied in from the New Orleans Saints. And here is my argument. It's important. You say that. Yes. Yeah, you may not realize who Adam Troutman is. He was a rookie last year. He didn't really do much.

But here's what we know about Adam Trowman. With very, very little draft capital in the 2020 draft, the Norland Saints selected Adam Troutman in the back of the third. They had four draft picks that year. Four players, and one of them was a, they prioritized Adam Trowman. Jared Kuk, Josh Hill, the veteran tight ends from that team, they were both waived. They didn't.

They weren't out of contract. They were waived. They were removed. That's 70 tight-in targets that were vacated, the third most in the NFL, and 32% of the total targets in New Orleans have been vacated. They need to be replaced. Who's going to replace those targets? Is it going to be Treyquan Smith, who is the second best option? He's the second best wide receiver on the team. He's going into year four. He has played every single season of his career with a first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback.

and he has never managed to surpass 450 yards. Sure, Treyquant Smith could have a late season breakout, be the Devante Parker of this year. But the odds are against him. This is what Adam Troutman was able to do as a rookie. He graded out as pro football focuses, highest graded run blocking tight end. As a rookie, he came in and was an outstanding player, a full three-down skill set.

And that's important. You want your players to be able to be on the field to run block so that you know they're not just on and off the field. They can be on for every single down. And then when they're not run blocking, he's getting out there for a pass. And his college profile is incredible. He went to a small school. He went to Dayton. That's fine. But he had a 38% dominator score. To put that in context.

Travis Kelsey in college, a 27% dominator. Darren Waller, 32%. Zach Gertz, 32%. Adam Troutman has an elite breakout age. To me, he seems primed to be the next guy for this team. I'm not going to sit over here and say Adam Troutman in 2021, the full breakout of him being a, he's going to take over and then we're going to draft him as an elite tight end. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying I think over the course of the next two years,

Adam Troutman is going to become a, he will become a top five tight end by then. But the window to trade for him will be slammed shut as we all in 2020, the offseason of 2022 are going, Adam Troutman is the next big up and coming tight end. Yeah, the window to trade for him is absolutely now. And it's important when you decide, if you decide like, hey, I could use a young tight end to go after. I'm going to try to trade for him. It's important that you say,

I'm going fishing. Like that's, when you go to make these offers, I'm going fishing. Right. I don't even, he's on the, he's on the waiver wire in leagues. Foo, you can fish, there's no question. Get that trout, man. I mean, I, you've, I told you this in the studio yesterday. I came with my arguments against troutman. And they're easy, look, it is easy to make arguments. And I've got them. They're bullet points. They, they sound like this. Doyle, Higby, and Joku, Burton, Reed.

Seals Jones, O.J. Howard, Austin Savorian Jenkins, Vance McDonald. There are a lot of hype tight ends from year to year. And that could be the direction. And if they don't build the offense around him, if Sean Payton doesn't want to do it, then you're not going to get what you want out of him. But you make a lot of compelling arguments. And this was also an offense where you saw Dan Arnold flash for the first time, where you took advantage of physical ability in the passing game. And here was Dan Arnold breaking out towards the end of the year with Breeze and then moving on to Arizona and now Carolina.

and the vacated targets. I mean, that's a huge part of this offense. They've always used the tight-in, Jimmy Graham, Jared Cook, Kobe Fleener, and who could also be an argument against. But the thing is, is you're looking for, I like the dynasty angle more than I even like the redraft, and then I like the cost. I mean, the cost is nothing. The cost might be waiver wire, or it is, just go trade somebody a backup for them. You know, go find somebody who needs...

Their backup. Or sneak him as a Trojan horse. Have him be a throw. He'd be like, throw in Adam Troutman and we'll seal this deal. Yeah. How do you even pronounce that last? Trutman. Trout. Who is he? I'm going fishing. No, I like it. I think he's a sneaky target in Dynasty League. So you persuaded me. And then I don't have to make him my vendetta the rest of the offseason. So it's good for everybody. All right. Less fun. Tradeaway targets.

Less fun. This is fun. I'm going to go with Zeke. Oh, Jason, how's that taste? And I'm not. We'll find out when a little bit after June 1st. And I'm not, I'm not taking the shot at Jason on purpose here who just acquired him in a dynasty league. But when you look at it, I mean, the facts of the facts is yards per attempt, his efficiency has descended for three consecutive years in Dallas. He has become less efficient. He's become more touchdown dependent.

And the team has seemed less obligated to give him every snap the way that they used to. He will be 26 this year. We talked about that 27 wall that is coming. So this year, this year should be fine. Like, don't freak out. And it's probably not Rahim Moster either. It's not one year and done for Zieg. But efficiency, top five performances, top five play, this might be the last year you can get Zik value for him before a decline is evident.

That or, you know, or feared because of signs that you've seen on the field. Right now you can excuse last year a little bit the efficiency because DAC wasn't there. So if you want to go get Zieg value, I don't know, like Brooks did, go get it. Because this is an opportunity to do it before he gets too old. Yeah. And Tony Pollard's good. I mean, he at least has somebody there that can take the load off and that might just reduce Zeke to a back end RB1 instead of a front-in RB1 in a dynasty league.

As someone who literally just acquired Zeke in a Dynasty League, I don't disagree with anything you're saying. In general, you know, all this advice is kind of in a vacuum. I think Zeke is someone, you look to move on from these running backs in their second contract who are, you know, there might be riding on the wall. And that is Zeke. My situation was a little different. I wasn't trying to get Zeke. I needed a running back and I was trying to get rid of.

capitalize on Devante Adams. But maybe that's stupid. Time will tell. Brooks, you and I are going to have a great season with these two players. I hope Aaron Rogers. I can't believe you traded away Devante Adams because there are rumors. We shall see. And I got a first rounder out of it as well. But anyways, my tradeaway target. Oh, brother Jason. And I love this. I am very happy with this. I'm going to get.

I'm going to get a lot of flack for this. A lot of people are going to be upset. But you don't want to trade away players once it's clear that you should move on from them. That is when you no longer have value. Then you just get rejections the way I'm getting for James Robinson. You want to trade a player that can net you a haul, a ton. Andy, when you traded Todd Gurley, it was before the falloff and you got a haul. You got Dalvin Cook plus others.

Now is the time to trade. Multiple first. Now is the time to trade away Derek Henry. It is now. Oh, brother. And that's not to say he's going to be terrible or that I don't think Derek Henry has an awesome season. But there are so many reasons to capitalize now. Over the last eight years, only one running back inside the top 10 of Dynasty ADP over the age of 27 has maintained that top 10 status the next year. It was Adrian Peterson. Maybe Derek Henry can do it.

Maybe, maybe not. But he is 27 years old, and he is coming off a massive, massive workload. 378 rush attempts. That's the most. Holy crap. What? Rushing, not touches. Rushing attempts. It's crazy how you forget that stuff. And there is, if you don't remember it, because, you know, we haven't had a lot of players getting that kind of workload in the modern day era. But even going back all time.

370. There's a 370 carry curse as coined from. Is that the Larry Johnson curse? That's what I was thinking of. Research from Gary Davenport that kind of looked at all of these players. And the only time that a player has ever improved his yardage total after a 370 carry season was 1984 when good friend of the show, Hall of Famer Eric Dickerson did it.

Once outside of that single time, it's never happened. And now here's a thing. You might think to yourself, well, of course. I mean, they had 370 carries. So, you know, chances are they have fewer yards the next year, maybe fewer carries. The average of every player who got 370 carries the following season was a reduction of average, 40% fewer total yards.

I'm not saying that's going to happen. I'm just saying that is in the realm of outcomes. And nobody on this list, nobody in history got 370 plus carries without being a dominant running back. You know what I mean? Like these were all great Sean Alexander's and Larry Johnson. That's why I was just going to look at it. It's really hard with Henry to make that determination. Oh, I know. It later starts. And then you look at a player like Marshaun Lynch, who had two absolutely massive dominating years.

Year 27, year 28. And you're like, well, do I want two years? Two more from Derek Henry. Is that worth it to me? And the thing is, is if you trade him right now before anything bad could possibly happen and you get a haul, then if he's good, it doesn't matter. You got value for it. But if it turns out...

that he ends up, you know, I mean, look, one injury to, you know, a key player on the Titans who have one of the most shallow offenses in the NFL, he's not going to produce the way he has this, the last two years. So he's one where I think I want to capitalize, acquire youth, go after Cam Acres, plus other stuff, and all of a sudden you're retooling your team, getting a bunch of draft picks or extra stuff, and you might end up with the better running back.

That's what I'm lucky to do if I've got Derek Henry. Well, I will complete the trifecter then that we are all trying to advise tradeaway these running backs. That's interesting. I didn't even know who your guys is tradeaway were and they're all running back. Wow. The value is still at a plate. And I echo the same thing that Jason was saying. This player's going to have a productive year. But I think you're at peak value right now. And I think that it's only going to go down over time. I would trade away Miles Sanders if I had him.

And you, because you can paint. Because you hate him. That's why, because I don't like him. Because you can, the picture you can paint for Miles Sanders is, it can still look like an excellent painting for fantasy value. He's only 24. He's heading into the third year of his career. He's going to be a productive player. And you look at dynasty startups. He's still going in the third, high in the third round ahead of players like Michael Thomas and Joe Mixon.

But here, follow the money. Follow the actions of the Philadelphia Eagles. Kenneth Gainwell was drafted in the fifth round. Kenneth Gainwell was drafted to do one thing in the NFL. And that's be a running back that catches passes. He is the best pass catcher in this draft. And they got him at a draft day discount. Looking at Miles Sanders last year, pro football focus graded out the receiving game of these running backs.

Miles Sanders ranked 148 out of 154 eligible running backs. It was awful. It was putrid. Carry on Johnson, who they just picked up off of the waiver wire, he has past catching ability. So I believe the way I'm projecting it, Miles Sanders is still the starting running back for the Philadelphia Eagles. He's still going to be a fine fantasy player. But I think that this team is trying to move him a wood.

more away from being a three-down player, which when he was drafted in the second round with that profile coming out of Penn, that's who we thought we were getting. And I don't think that's the case anymore. But there are still going to be people in your Dynasty League that believe that Miles Sanders can be a true three-down player, but he is not for me anymore. So I would try and trade a two-down player for a three-down player price. I'm going to have to think about Miles a little bit.

I just don't know. If I wasn't worried about Carillon in Detroit with DeAndre Swift, am I worried about Carri-on in Philadelphia? It's not that I'm necessarily worried about Carion Johnson as a player, which I think Carri-on is a fine player who's just been hurt. It's just following the actions of the team that saying we are not satisfied with what is happening on this team. I agree with.