Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Breakouts, Arian Foster, FNTSY Network's Chris Meaney, News, Mailbag

especially all the people that are really, really new to DFS. We have a month or so to go over the rules, the pricing, matchups we like week one to get you all set. So I suggest maybe checking out the faddle show on Fantasy Sports Network. All right, great stuff, Chris. Thank you. Thanks for having me.

All right, thanks to Chris Meaney for joining us today. And before we get to the breakout section, we've got to take a minute and talk about Audible. Right now, you can get a free audiobook on Audible, a 30-day trial right now. Sign up on audible.com slash ballers. We love Audible.

Every single one of us here at the studio has actually used it. I used it for last like four years. You can get Fantasy Life by Matthew Barry is on there. That's a good read. And there's a lot of cool features on Audible. You can actually speed up the books, get through them faster. That's what I did.

It was basically my commute saver for many, many years. Unfortunately, this show doesn't run 24 hours a day. It should. I mean, you have a backup time when you need to listen to something. It's a spectacular service, especially for long road trips, commutes like Andy was talking about. You can take that time. You can catch up on nearly any kind of book that you've ever wanted to listen to. You want to catch up on Game of Thrones because the series is caught up to the books and you say, hey.

I want to go back, and now I can do it spoiler-free. Guess what? All the Game of Thrones books are available. If you're like me, you're a big sci-fi dork. Philip K. Dick, he's all a big dork. Everyone knows it. I didn't try and emphasize that point. But Philip K. Dick, he's all over there. You know what, Blade Runner, Howard, do...

Well, I can't even remember the real title. Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? Spectacular Read will make you question reality. I know that you guys haven't read it because your minds are not below. That explains the abdula thing. So, yeah, and any of these ones, Mike's mentioning the ones we've listened to before, you can get them for free. You can get on there and just go to audible.com slash ballers. That's audible.com slash ballers. Get your free audiobook download. Do it right now. That's audible.com slash.

B-A-L-E-R-S. All right, you guys want to talk some breakouts? Yeah. Someone tell me what a breakout is. A breakout is a guy who performed last year, not some guy that was not to be seen, who did a decent job, but is going to take a leap forward this year and be a fantasy difference maker bringing you championship glory. We're looking for you. I thought that was coming. No, I was about to explode, so I stopped. I'm hoping Jason breaks out next year.

Thank you. Because he's kind of, you know, he's performing this year, but next year's, I'm projecting good things. He's on the sleeper list this year. He is. No, no, no. I'm, come on. I'm high enough to be on breakouts. He's at least an eighth rounder.

Thank you. He's like Malcolm. He's Malcolm Floyd. That is really generous. That is really kind of you guys. All right. Let's talk wide receivers. Alan Robinson, he's a guy we've been talking about, but some people have been asking, hey, why are you high on Alan Robinson? Mike, what are you telling you? Here's why I love Alan Robinson, and I call him the target monster. Jacksonville, Jaguars. Yeah. This is no problem with the Jaguars? No, I'm letting people know who out there. There might be people out there that don't know. Okay, so he's on the Jaguars.

And so last year, this is including week one. He did nothing in week one. But after that, 81 targets. He was on pace for 130 targets over the year. In games, he had, so of 10 games, five or more catches and six of them, 60 or more yards in six of them, seven or more targets in eight of ten games. He was just, he was ready to bust out. And his player comps are spectacular.

He's big. He actually was one of the wide receivers. Because that draft class was so deep, that's why he got pushed down to where he was drafted by the Jaguars in the second round. Cecil Shorts, 110 targets, gone. Alan Robinson is now the numeral uno on that team.

They brought in Julius Thomas. I think he actually helps Alan Robinson because Julius Thomas' job is to spread the field. Also, reports at a camp are that he's just humiliating people. He is dominating the training camp right now, making one-handed grabs over people, just showing up. So let me ask you a question, then. What makes Alan Robinson different in statistical difference than Jarvis Landry of Miami? I think the fact that...

I think that... Because neither of them scored touchdowns, really. I mean, five or six, seven touchdowns.

Right. But the physicality of those two guys, the physicality of those two guys, you've got Alan Robinson, I think, is much more capable of actually breaking free of having yards after contact. That would be, and also in how they utilize the players, I think Jarvis Landry is going to be utilized this year going forward, still how he was, which is a shorter, you know, yards per reception, whereas I don't assume that that's how Alan Robinson's going to be used this year. And I'm just making.

sure. So are you both drafting Alan Robinson ahead of Jarvis Landry? Yes, I am. For sure. Jarvis Landry, I'm confirming right now. I believe he didn't have a catch over 20 yards. 25. That was his longest catch. So Jarvis Landry is, he's the short stuff. Alan Robinson. I'm not debating the size. I know the difference between the two guys' size. What I'm saying is that Alan Robinson didn't get in the end zone.

What makes you think he's getting in the end zone? He scored two touchdowns last year. I think the Jaguars team has improved. They've put a lot of effort improving the offensive line. Blake Bortles was just getting hit nonstop last year, and he was a rookie. He wasn't ready for it. So you improve the line, you give him some more time, and Alan Robinson's going to eat. Where's his ADP right now? Where's Alan Robinson's average draft position? So when we throw out that number there, I'm curious. Wait.

Oh, you're talking about ADP? Yeah, that means average draft position. Hold on. Are you efforting that? He's searching. I'm just curious, is he still a great value? Yeah, he's at the very back of the sixth round. Who are some guys going ahead of him? I feel like I have to be on something just so incorrect right now, but I'm not. But you're in standard, though. Yeah, I'm in standard, but it says Victor Cruz is going ahead of him. That's ridiculous.

What? Ridiculous. This is, and this is, so give me some other name. This is fantasy football calculator.

For, well, people do, like, where do you get your ADP? Fantasy Football calculator. Other guys going, Jarvis Landry is going ahead of him. Jeremy Macklin's going ahead of him. In a PPR. And this is standard. Do you still take, you're still taking Robinson ahead of Landry into PPR? In PPR? Yes, correct. Okay. All right, let's move on to another breakout candidate. A guy you guys both have talked up that I'm on the fence on, so we'll debate this. Jordan Matthews, wide receiver for the Philadelphia Eagles. He's coming off a 67 catch.

872 and 8 year on 103 targets. He played on 67% of the snaps last year. And the headline here is goodbye, Macklin. Exactly. Hello Nelson Aguilar and DeMarco Murray and Ryan Matthews and some other guys. Well, they had LaShawn McCoy last year, so I don't think Murray is pretty much awash. When you're talking about workload. Okay.

Well, I was just giving names of guys that have joined the team. Don't worry, you can argue with me in a minute. But Jordan Matthews is a breakout candidate. So first, tell me where you think his numbers will be compared to last year, because that would define the breakout, right? Like, if he's at the same numbers as last year, which I think he'll be closer to those, that's why I'm on the fence. I have Jordan Matthews with 90 receptions, 1150 yards, and nine touchdowns. Okay, I actually don't think that's very unreasonable. Yep.

Well, that's a breakout, my friend. Well, same amount of touchdowns almost. He just, he basically erases the rookie break-in period of his career, and he puts up 90 catches. It puts Jordan Matthews for my ranks at 13 in every format. So he is literally just outside wide receiver 1. 13's great. I'll go with those numbers. And that is a great breakout. And we did these projections separately. I have my numbers almost identical to what Jason had. And for me, he's finishing.

because I stat a little bit different. He's between 10 and 12. Depends on the format. And so the crux of why we think he's a breakout, it really has to do with Macklin. It has to do with Chip Kelly and always producing a number one wide receiver. Yeah, it's about the power smoothie offense up in Philadelphia. Chip Kelly came in. He turned Deshawn Jackson into a wide receiver one. The ultimate boom bus guy had some actual solid week-to-week play enough to become a fantasy wide receiver one.

Deshawn Jackson leaves or whatever happened up there. And people start to freak out. Jeremy Macklin coming off an ACL surgery. He's a beast. He's a wide receiver one. And he had 143 targets last year. Those are gone. He played almost 300 more snaps than Jordan Matthews. There's going to be a wide receiver one in Philadelphia. Are you going to put your chips on a guy who's 6-2?

He's already played in the NFL a year. He's massively talented, and he showed that last year. Do you think it's going to be a rookie? No, I don't think it's going to be a rookie. Pro football focus has a great stat that I think really shows the value of the quality of a wide receiver, which is essentially what is the QB rating when targeting a specific wide receiver? And so the...

as a rookie, Jordan Matthews, with not the greatest, right? Mark Sanchez was his, you know, for Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez. Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez. And it's the seventh highest wide receiver rating in the entire league as a rookie with those two quarterbacks. So let me throw a little bit of shade with the caveat of, I have them for about, I haven't at 79 for over 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns. Okay. So I'm a little bit behind you guys.

But don't you think there are some variables in the equation here that we're not seeing? You know, yes, you can dog on Mark Sanchez or Nick Foles, but Sam Bradford hasn't done anything in Philadelphia, yeah. Right. And so we don't know who he connects with. We know that Chip Kelly's goal is to spread the ball around. And there's Josh Huff, there's Nelson Aguilar, there's Sproles, there's these other guys. Do you see any possibility of being surprised and disappointed in Jordan Matthews?

I see it as a small risk. I know there's a lot of people out there who, they do. They're not on Matthews because his ADP is a bit higher. I think you have to take him in the fourth. That's part of the question. And I'm very happy to take him in the fourth. If you take his season and you cut it in half at the midpoint, the first half of the year, he was putting up eight points a game. He jumps up to almost 13 in the second half of the season. Did you happen to project out his second half over a full season?

Oh, I was just curious. What is section after the whole season? No, I haven't done it. Okay, well, but he definitely had a strong. He went from 40 yards to 70 yards. He is the perfect type of guy that I want because in the fourth round, if he underperforms, his floor is still very high. He's the slot guy who is going to be on the field all the time. And that's one more thing. Let's say people, oh, he's going to be in the slot.

He's going to be on the outside and two wide receiver sets, and I don't care if he's in the slot. No, I don't either. He produced in the slot last year. Yeah, that doesn't bother me at all. Travis Kelsey and Tyler Eifer, two breakout candidates that we have at the tied-in position. People hear us talk probably a little bit more about Kelsey. Yeah.