The TRUTH: Top 10 Fantasy QBs + Seeing is Believing - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/19

I learned my lesson on Pittman. I already got him on the board. The panel of Justin Fields Truthers at the island that I described, which is, it's just me and the Borgononi. So you're going to have to talk to some people. He's going to be my guy despite the fact he'll be on another team. Whoa. I don't care where he is. No, I mean, Jalen Hertz. Let's get back to that. He was a little bit. of an underperformer against top 16 defenses compared to his average. I mean, he crushed bottom 16 defenses. Missed Dallas Goddard for four weeks during the year. Was great on the road. Improved as the passer. Number one impasser rating versus zone coverage. Third in yards per attempt. Didn't hurt that Justin Fields was throwing to nobody and he was throwing to.

arguably two of the top 15 wide receivers in football, A.J. Brown, Devante Smith. And Jalen hurts, something that won't change for him going forward, that is a known commodity and is kind of, it's a, you know, it's a cheat code within the cheat code, right? He's already got the cheat code of being a mobile quarterback. But what they have done with their rugby push quarterback sneak, when they need one yard. They can guarantee one yard. He gets it like a 90% clip. They call his number on that quarterback sneak for a yard over and over and over and over. So when you get on the one yard line, which is usually a death knell for the quarterback, you know, you're unhappy when someone is tackled at the one because you're like, no, they needed to get in because now I'm going to lose it to the running back. It's like if you're close enough, if it's the two yard line through the five yard line, okay, I'm like, oh, no, Miles Sanders. But if they're on that one or in,

That's Jalen Hertz. It's almost a guaranteed rushing touchdown. He had 43 red zone carries. This is a big reason why. It's the most of all time. It was a home run. It was a home run from start to finish, really, for Jalen Hertz. Obviously the injury at the very end, you know, you would have loved to have had him. Jason lost sleep in years to his life because he had to deal with that injury. So. You know, there's a cost to Jalen Hertz for your blood pressure, but otherwise it was worth the cost in the sixth round. Incredible. Number four, Joseph Burrow, also a six round pick. And was the consistency rank of number four this year? 24% great games, 47% good, 18% bust. Didn't have Jamar Chase for four games, didn't have Hayden Hurst for four games, had some offensive line injuries. And yet.

put up a delicious 4,400 yards, 35 touchdowns, just 12 picks. And looked the part. Yeah, he looked fantastic. My hesitancy for Joe Burrow coming into the season for everything was how much will they actually let him throw? Because last year, when he went on the full hot streak, his efficiency was like historically off the boards. So my argument for Joe Burrow is he either has to replicate that or. Coach Zach Taylor has to let go of this high tea. We're going to give Joe Mix and the ball 10,000 times every single game. And we need to be a passing team. And they did. They became one of the heaviest pass over expectation teams in the league. So it happened. Joe Burrow was allowed to cook. He was fantastic. He was, I mean, just sensational for fantasy football. I would say.

The one downside here for Joe Burrow is just that the fact of the division that he's in, those AFC North matchups, they do slow him down, you know, two of his worst games against Cleveland. He had a number one overall finish against Pittsburgh, but Baltimore, he was the quarterback eight and the quarterback 18. So the fact that you know that those games are going to be. Just an assludge fest of football slowed down. And those defenses can, they can perform against Joe Burrow and the high-flying offense. Look at the playoff game. Like, that should have been an absolute route. It felt like on paper Joe Burrow versus a backup quarterback with no weapons. And yet the game was very, very close. And they could hold Joe Burrow down. So that's my only knock against Joe Burrow is that you know that six times a year, you're going to have some tougher matchups.

Maybe four because the Steelers are not what they used to be. But they'll get back there, and that's what the division is about. But other than that, I mean, Joe Burrow is, when he's not facing his division, he's going to put up monster numbers. Yeah, I mean, Joe Burrow is fantastic. He's clearly the dude. He's got it. He's proven. I mean, he went to the Super Bowl last year, could go back again this year. He is a world-class. top flight quarterback, but for fantasy football purposes, you are right to comp him to Justin Fields, who last year was what, the quarterback too? Justin Herbert. Justin Herbert, sorry, because he's a pocket passer. I mean, he can scramble a little bit, but that's not his game. So there is. He at least has the advantage of Jamar Chase, T. Higgins, Tyler Boyd.

is a real big greater sign than Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. That's a huge part of it. It is certainly a big part of it, but my point is without that rushing, not only do you have a little bit more volatility in his season-long outcome next year, but you also have a little less ceiling because, you know, if you're in four-point scoring and you're not having a bunch of rushing touchdowns, so for instance, you look at per game, number one, quarterback was tied. Josh Allen and Jalen Hertz both had 25.6 points per game right there with him. Patrick Mahomes, 25.2. Well, the number four quarterback was Joe Burrow, but he was down 22 points per game. You know, it's a significant per game drop if he is drafted where these other guys are drafted next year for a pocket passer. It was interesting that he was the only quarterback to finish number one overall three times.

including back-to-back weeks. And like Mike said, the coaching staff got out of the way, let Joe Burrow do his thing. And Jamar Chase is much more in the, you know, what Stafford had in Detroit with Calvin Johnson category compared to, look, Mike Williams can't stay healthy. Their offensive coordinator just got fired. So we'll see what's in store. But yeah, I mean, this is a situation where taking the highest drafted pocket passer is a huge risk, I think. If his name's not Patrick Mahomes. I was just thinking, man, Patrick Mahomes is good. Like you want to know the truth about quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes is better than everyone because I'm looking at it like, okay, he's got Jamar Chase. He could be the best wide receiver in the NFL. I don't know. And T. Higgins is so good. And you've got Jalen Hertz who's got A.J. Brown and Devante Smith. T. Higgins would immediately be the best wide receiver for Kansas City. Absolutely. You've got Stefan Diggs with.

You know, everyone's got these great wide receivers, and then you got Ho-Hum, Patrick Holmes thrown it to like... MVS. Marquis Valdez-Catling and older version of Juju Smith-Schuster. No problem. Yeah, probably even more of an argument to how good Travis Kelsey is and how much he helps the team. But, yeah, I mean, I think it's exactly what you said. Aaron Rogers, in the... In the past, there were other pocket passers that would move around behind him. He was always number one. I think that that is definitely something that can happen here for Joe Burrow. Big points gap between Joe Burrow and the number five quarterback. Just real quick, did we highlight this stat of, because I was anecdotally saying they were passing over expectation, but after week two.

second in pass rate over expectation, second in expected points per play, threw the ball in first down at a higher rate than any other team. So they, I mean, they started. They had a couple weeks where Zach Taylor was kind of falling back to his old tricks or his old, what he feels comfortable with. When they were 0.2? Yes. Look, I don't need to point it out. But yeah, they didn't win those games. And then they unleashed the Fury and said, this is how you win. You let Joe Burrow do his thing. Well, Gino Smith is number five. Like I said, a big points gap between Burrow to Gino. This was very much an accumulation season for Gino Smith. He was 11 inconsistency. Fifth in total points. You had 6% great games, so you did not get sealing very often. 29% good games, 29% busts. But I think...

You know, this is an adjusted context when you talk about Gino Smith. This was nowhere near where he was expected to be. Huge testament to Gino himself, huge testament to Metcalf and Lockett for being themselves and still being themselves, no matter whether Russell was there or not. From week three on, he had 10 top 12 finishes, which was as many as Joe Burrow in that span, if you bring it down to number 12. You know, he started every game, played very well, showed a stability, I think, that we weren't expecting and could be back. I mean, he's a free agent. Yeah, I expect he will be back. And I want to give him all the props and kudos in real life for being good. He was not, you know, an average quarterback. I think he was a very good quarterback. But for fantasy purposes, this is a stat accumulation. He's a quarterback eight.

on a per game basis. There were three other kind of stud quarterbacks out there that got injured this year. So they're, you know, they're not who we're talking about yet. They are all better than Gino for fantasy purposes going forward. The problem with Gino is, you know, you talk about all those top 12 finishes was, you know, he's got an 11, an 11. an 11, a 12 during that span. And when you are sneaking into that. Oh, Phillip River style. Exactly. It's one of those things where you can build a fantasy roster around that if you're grabbing him super late and the rest of your roster is loaded and you're just saying, I don't want to get a dud. You can do that. But outside of, you know, I think he had one big week on the entire season where he, I think it was week four against Detroit, 31 fantasy points. Outside of that.

you know, two games over 21 points the rest of the season. He just didn't bust. He was very, you know, steady. But that's not going to win fantasy championships. Justin Fields comes in at number six. All right. Consistency rank of seven. But in the second half, that rank went up to fourth. And 20% great, 40% good, 33% busts. This was, you know, the first. Four weeks of the season. So, yeah, what was his bust rate? They were, they were. It would have been 100% in those first four weeks. Well, that's what I'm saying. Like 23, 27, 31, 26, not points, finish. When they, because the beginning of the season was a, a mismanagement of Justin Fields at who he is, who he is as an athlete and what he can do as a quarterback. They're trying to force him into something else. And then there was a clear shift of.

All right, let's let's let Justin Fields do his thing. Let's let him run and let's take a look at what the offense does then. Because of that shift. If you take the weeks. I've got the answers for you. Okay, give it to you. Because there was a legit shift where the coaching staff even came out and said, hey, we looked at these other mobile quarterbacks and we changed the system to fit Justin Fields. And they clearly found something different. Taking those first four weeks out and using this like truth algorithm, he would rank as the number three in the truth score. He would have had a 27% great, 55% good and only 9% bust rate.

after those first four games were figured out. And with a brand new coaching staff, you can't even blame him for entering the season with like a standardized, here's our NFL offense. And then going, it's not working. Let's figure him out. Huge credit to the staff for making that adjustment. He was not good to start the year, became a dominator, lost Darnell Mooney, was still dominant. Really impressive. Number one pick for the Bears going into next year. They have the most cap space. They can get him more weapons, and it's probably the best investment that they can make with these draft picks to just solidify all of those pieces and take that San Francisco model where you start to build out the weapons for your quarterback and make him successful. Yeah, I mean, if he's in the sixth round next year, he'll be the quarterback on as many.

of my rosters as possible. Here's what I'll say. I think you're right. He'll be in the sixth round if you don't have a player added to the offense that we talk about for more than three shows in the offseason. So you're saying if they trade for a DeAndre Hopkins level guy, then he'll go ahead of the six round. He will go way higher, especially with what we saw from, look, it's now a template, right? Josh Allen plus Stefan Diggs. equals breakout season. Jalen Hertz plus A.J. Brown equals breakout season. I think at that point, if we're coming in next year with that truth that you just shared about its consistency and you throw a Hopkins in the mix or you throw a high profile wide receiver option, I don't know if in very many leagues will make it that far. Yeah, my concern for what the Chicago Bears can do because.

Remember what they've already done. They traded, what is it, pick 32 now? They traded pick 32 for Chase Claypool and didn't even get to really see what he can do or be a part of this office. I think that Chase Claypool can, he can really help the Chicago Bears. He's not a number one wide receiver by any stretch. So the question then becomes, one, I mean, I guess the very, very first question is, do you The Chicago Bears, do they take a quarterback at one overall and then flip Justin Fields? Which maybe they do that. There's arguments I've seen that or for that that are pretty compelling. But if they stick with Justin Fields, then they trade down, accumulate a bunch of picks. But they have so many problems with this team that I don't know that we get the splash.

at a skill position that we all want for fantasy football. The splash might be like two stud offensive linemen, which doesn't feel sexy, but that would be a huge upgrade. One of the problems that should be highlighted for Justin Fields is that from about week 13 on, when he tried to get up off the field, it was difficult. They were that dependent on his athleticism and his rushing totals. And then he was hurt. He was beat up. I mean, he missed the final game of the year. He had issues at the end of the year going in and out of the game. So you definitely want to highlight how great that rushing prowess was. But then you got to know what the math adds up to. I mean, Lamar has been beat up for two consecutive years. We've seen this when quarterbacks push the limit in the rushing totals. You.

by nature, mathematically, open yourself up to more risk being hit. Not every rush for Justin Fields looked anything like the rushes for Jalen Hertz. You know, Jalen Hertz were very, you know, it seemed much more strategic, whereas Justin Fields seemed much more necessary. And the ends of those plays look a lot different from a slide from Jalen Hertz and a collision for Justin Fields. So it's just something to be. You know, to be aware of. And like you said, the offensive line would be a big part. He was pressured 46% of the time. That was the most in the league. The free agent wide receiver class for this off season. There isn't one. It's Kobe Myers. It's not, yeah, I mean, it's highlighted by guys like, Jacoby Myers. But DJ Chark is in there as well. And. Well, that will not move them out of the sixth round for me. But, but DJ Chark would.

have an impact to me. Like when you put a field stretcher who can be reliable, like, I mean, Darnow Mooney returning would be, I think, the most significant thing. But, you know, if Claypool doesn't need a new contract and he's got one more year, right? Yeah, they don't have to resign him just yet. But all are the fields truthers in the meetings, we have our hopes and our dreams for one of these outstanding rookies to go there. I just, I don't, I don't see it happening, unfortunately. Uh, Yeah, it's certainly not going to happen with number one overall. No, it would be a trade back and accumulation and then grab a while. I guess it depends on how far they trade back. Kirk Cousins coming in at number seven on our list, the quarterback 15 off the board, consistency rank of 13. Jason, let me ask you a simple question. By the way, 6% great, 38% good, 31% bust. Based on what you've seen here.

Between Gino Smith at 5 and Kurt Cousins here at 7, which quarterback would you have preferred to have started every game of the year? That's a tough one because they're very similar comps here. I think I would have preferred to start Gino every single week. He had fewer bust games and neither one of these guys really, you know. went out in one me weeks. There was a stretch of three games of greatness for Kirk Cousins. Thankfully, it came week 14, 15, and 16. Where it was like, yes. But you take those three games out, and he really never helped you win a game, and he did help you lose a couple. Yeah, no question. I mean, finished 29th at the quarterback position in that disaster against Dallas, 25th against the Jets, 25th against Philly. Like, you play a great defense, and he's got a crumble quotient. It's a new stat.

Are we working that out? Yeah, it's the crumble quotient. And I don't know what quotients are. To be fair. Yeah, no, but this is one. But he, and I don't know if he's got a high one or a low one. But whatever it is, he's leading, he's leading the way. Yeah, it's very high. It'd be high. It'd be a high quotient. Yeah, I'd go, I think it'd be high. It'd be a high quotient. Yeah, he, he, he, that's the quotient. He's got a 38. Yeah. On, on a crumble quotient. And where do crumble cookies fit in? to the quotient. It depends on whether they choose to sponsor the show and help us gain significant LBs. Yeah. They could have a one on the crumble quotient, which is good. Your move, crumble. Your move. All right, Trevor Lawrence comes in at eight. Oh, I would say Minnesota, though, they strike me as someone who could make a splash in the first or the second round for a wide receiver. Really? Yeah. Yeah, it makes sense. Adam Thielen is.

on his way out. They've got, honestly, Hawkinson might be their number two going forward. I think Osborne is a good player, though. Osborne is okay. I'd be shocked if they invested there. The way their defense is playing, I'd be really shocked because I think Osborne is ready to take the next step and they traded for Hawkinson, so I'd be surprised. What was the draft capital they gave up? Like, do they still have a second round pick? I mean, it was a lot, wasn't it? I think it was. Kyle has no idea. No idea, but I'll look it out. No idea. Finally stumped him. At the very end of the season, Kyle has no clue what happened. The Hawkinsonsonsons are tight in for the Viking. You're taking a nap back there? What is happening? He doesn't even have his glasses on. Can you see? He's researching. Yeah. What was the compensation?

Do you know? Researching his eyelids. I mean, do you bring contacts today? What's going on? I'm doing no work right now. Yes, clearly. He's got the Almask on again. All right. The Minnesota Vikings received tight in T.J. Hawkinson a 2023rd fourth round pick and a 2024 conditional fourth round pick from the lions. The lions received a second. And a second round pick this year and a third round pick the next year. Okay. So they don't have a two. So there's no way they're taking a while. I retract my statement. But they need more picks for defense. You know, free agent can land there. That's for sure. Thielen definitely is dissolving. Yeah. Before our very eyes. Do you guys disagree with me though? You don't think K.J. Osborne's a player? So I've, I think he's actually a player. I've loved KJ. Osborne. I went into this season. He was like my third highest roster percentage on on underdog. I drafted him a lot because I thought, I think of him.

I thought of him as like a real deal. You think the player. And I, you know, saw the end of Adam Thielen coming. So he, and he was a super late round draft pick. And I think because I invested so much in KJ. Osborne this year and I didn't get the results I wanted. I'm like, I'm not sure he's going to be able to do it. That's where I'm at. He strikes me as more of like Tyler Boydian type of. Sure. Yeah. Which is very good. You could have some good years. Boyd had some good years. Yeah. So if he's stuck in the two spot, like if Thieland is gone and it's Osborne, it could be okay. Yeah. Justin Jefferson's a delight across the field from you if you are on that team. So the Vikings, you know the story, 11 and 0 and 1 score games. Captain Kirk, really not the quarterback I would have wanted. Trevor Lawrence came in at 8. Consistency rank of 12.

But that jumped. I mean, the first half of the year was 14 in consistency. The second half of the year, he was fifth. And I think we all know what we're watching with Trevor Lawrence, which is a young player with high draft capital, with a coach we trust, with weapons in the wide receiver room, good trustworthy running back. It's the ascension. This is one of those guys that's going to be. a six-round pick next year that you're going, oh, this could be one of those breakouts. Yeah, I mean, it reminds me a lot of Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow had, you know, really strong end to a season where the offense kind of figured out how to unleash him. Then he went to the Super Bowl, had a great unexpected playoff run, came in this year and dominated. And you could see this happen with Trevor Lawrence. Obviously, the weapons are a little bit up in the air. They're going to get Calvin Ridley added to this team.

Presumably. Hopefully. Oh, well. They traded for him, but his reinstation, reinstate, what do you say that word? Not reinstation. Reinstation. Reinstation sounds good to me. I'm going to reinstatement. Reinstatement. There we go. Reinstation. That's the, that's 104.7. Oh, on the FM? Yeah. Hmm. The FM radio joke. For the boomers out there. Um. Ridley will be back next year, but I know what you're saying. Kirk will be there. Ridley will be there. Zay Jones will be there. The real question is whether or not Evan Ingram is there. I think they will resign him the money. Give him the money. Giving Evan Ingram the money is writing his death sentence. They already gave him the money. They gave him a one year. That ain't the nine million. You want them to give him the shmoney for schmingrum. No, you don't want to know what they need to do. They need to give them 12 million.

One year deal. 100%. One year. 100%. And have it in writing team option 13 million the next year. Like we'll keep going, but it's our choice. You got to, you got to, you want that. I'll give Evan Ingram all the credit for his end of this season. It was incredible. It was very good. I'm not certain he will be that forever. They can franchise him if they need to. Trevor Lawrence, one of only two quarterbacks in NFL history to put up 4,000 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, five rushing touchdowns with those stretch armstrong arms. So long. You know, this was a year he played most of it as a 22-year-old. I mean, he's a young, young quarterback. He's going to have some bumps in the road, but they're going to equip him, it looks like, in Jacksonville and is a breakout candidate without question. 12% great, 35% good, 35%.

Bust. Yeah, the bust games were his real problem. They were the Achilles heel from a fantasy perspective this year because when he... Busted! When he busted, he super busted. He had several games below that 10-point threshold. Super bust. Yeah, how do we not have a drop for that? Yeah. I didn't even know we had a super bust. It is hidden behind the scenes. How do you say, do I have to like... Join the foot to get this or what? It does exist. Yeah, 5.7 against the Eagles, 6.8 against the Denver Broncos, 4.5 against the Texans, and then not a super bus, but 10 points to finish the season. So those games really did destroy you for fantasy. Because he's so young, this team is so young, you kind of chalk that up to just.

you're going to have inconsistency, but his upside is certainly there. He had a number one overall finish on the season, and he had five top five finishes. So for a 22-year-old, sky's the limit going forward. For all we know, we'll be talking about him as a defending Super Bowl champion. I mean, they're still in the playoffs. Yeah, okay. They are still in the playoffs. There you go. For all you know. But we know. We know. It seems unlikely, but you never know. I'm very happy for them to get to the second round. And what a great story. Nine and ten. Daniel Jones, Jared Goff. Daniel Jones, weird year. 10th in consistency. Ninth in fantasy scoring. Seventh over the second half of the year. Busted 44% of the time. So, you know.