Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Top 10 TE, TE Sleepers, News, Mailbag

anti-your-take, Jason. It's just the fact of what we were just talking about. You want a guy who has the potential to move up. If Jimmy Graham's going to be drafted in accordance or even close to in accordance to what his production was like in New Orleans, he's not going to be on any of my teams because of that. And there's enough reasons in Seattle to say, okay, maybe he produces the same, but there's not a lot of reasons to think he would ever get past where he's been. He's had some injury issues. He has...

He's great. He's a number three on all of us. He's our top three tied in for all of us. But I have reason to believe that Travis Kelsey is going to make a production leap and a better value for fantasy owners. So I agree with...

Everything being said, Mike, a lot of the target and volume thing, I mean, we've got him five receptions different, you and me. The point that you bring up that's completely valid is whether or not he's going to increase his yards per catch going from the Saints, because I have him increasing his yards per catch going from the Saints to Seattle. I just see that as a scheme thing. When he catches those rollout, when Russell Wilson rolls out, those are long plays. So I do see his yards per catch going up. So that's debatable, but we're near the same. The real.

issue in all of fantasy is always value for where you get a guy. And so you're right, Andy. I was just talking about you want a guy getting better or not worse? He's going to be worse than he was the previous year. The question is, does the publicity of going to a worse offense hurt his ADP enough to where you still get a value? I've seen in some of my mocks where he's

there at the two three turn. So essentially you could say you're getting him as the first pick and the third. And at that point, that point is where I would take him. Because last year, he's a game changing tight end on your fantasy team. Right. I mean, you know, last year you're talking about he was drafted in the first round sometimes. So, yeah. So, well, still a game change. I think all three of these guys of our top three are game changing fantasy tight ends. Certainly not to the level of grunk, but they will be a point differential to help you win games.

Let me, we got to move it on if we want to get through these next two. I don't want to get through. Sorry. We're going to talk a lot more about tight ends and Jimmy Graham and what happens after the draft. Our number two consensus, Mike and I is number two, Jason's number three, is Travis Kelsey, a guy who I actually made a bet on ridiculously earlier in the off season that wouldn't finish in the top three, and now I haven't met number two because making bets in the off season is really stupid.

It's just dumb. So I think it's great. Let me give you my take on him when I broke the numbers down. Here's the thing about Travis Kelsey. He's really, really good. And he only played 668 snaps last year. That was almost half the top tight-end snap count. And...

Fasano's gone and he's maturing and he's the perfect representation of that guy that has the ability to make a leap. In only 668 snaps last year, he put up 67 catches, 862 yards and five touchdowns. A conservative jump just based on snap count puts him in and above that Jimmy Graham range that we're projecting right there. So that's why he is so high on my list. I have him at 84 receptions for 1100 yards and eight touchdowns. And I think he is a wonderful...

Upside tied in. So to add on with Andy, because I am also in love with Zeus, he had, of his catches, an 82% catch rate. That's insane. Now, I agree. No, yeah, I agree. That's not going to stay there. That's going to come down because he's going to... Have you seen how long Alex Smith throws the ball? I'll catch something from three feet away. Thank you for listening or for leading me to another point. Vernon Davis. Remember that guy?

Remember when he was elite? He was like the best fantasy tied in for a while. Did he have Alex Smith as his quarterback at that time? He averaged 105 targets. Those are the kind of targets that you want. Now here's just another quick Kelsey tip. 503 yards after the catch. That led all tight ends. He forced 17 missed tackles or not just missing tackles or going through guys. So not only can he catch and run.

He can go through you. He can go around you. He's extremely athletic. He is. Baby Gronk or Zeus, whatever you want to call him. And when you're looking at the draft, I expect him to rise into the fourth range. But I will absolutely, for a guy who does not want to take tight ends early, I'm taking Travis Kelsey in the fourth round.

Yeah, you know, I agree with that. I would say this. He's third on my list, but I would probably have Travis Kelsey before I have Jimmy Graham because of where he's going to be drafted. I've got them finishing almost the same. The discrepancy for me here is just the offense. I think the offense hurts him. I'd much rather have Seattle is a much...

higher power offense. They threw for a thousand more yards and five more touchdowns than Kansas City did. Also, with Jeremy Macklin coming in, some of the receiving touchdowns aren't going, I mean, literally they had nobody. I mean, Dwayne Bow and nobody. So, you know, if Jeremy Macklin comes in and catches five receiving touchdowns, that's five more than. I'm not worried about it because their offense will be better.

Their offense will be better, but their offense still isn't going to be great. So, you know, we've got them very similarly. Leave Zeus alone. I never thought in all my days, because I've been on Travis Kelsey for the last two years. I love them. I've always talked them up. I never thought I'd be on a fantasy show speaking...

Any down playing on Travis Kelsey. So I won't. I will say draft him. Draft him like crazy. He will be great. He'll be fantastic. And he will finish right where Jimmy Graham finishes as the number two or three tight in. Even if the offense is not as high-powered as the Seattle offense, the offense runs through the running back and the tight end. Because that's what Alex Smith does. So that's who I want. Well, we're going to move on to number one on our list. Everybody knows who it is. It's gronk.

But before we do that, I want to point out one thing I noticed. Stay tuned. I want to point out something that I noticed on our rankings that a name you did not hear in our top 10 is my number six overall tight end. Julius Thomas. Julius Thomas. So I wanted to touch on him really quickly. I have him at number six. And I have him at number six because I believe that Julius Thomas will score a lot of touchdowns in Jacksonville. How many do you have him? I have him at 10.

Okay. And so I just want to bring him up because you guys have him so low. I want to know why you don't like Julius Thomas. I do not think for a minute that he is, you know, going to ascend in terms of his statistics compared to his years in Denver. But I have him very, I mean, 67 catches, 600 yards. That's what I have him at. But 10 touchdowns for Blake Bortle. So, Mike, you have met almost not even a tight-in two. I have him very low. So you hate him. You hate him in his...

Family. I do. Mostly his family. Not so much the man. Beautiful. So the thing of tight ends are always proclaimed to be the security blanket for a new quarterback, right? Yeah, I know where you're going. This is crazy. Clay Harbor and Mercedes-Louis combined for 66 targets. Targets, not receptions. So Blake Bortles was not relying on the tied end. Demarius Thomas, or...

Sorry, not to Marius. I apologize. Julius Thomas had 12 touchdowns both years when he played with Peyton Manning. Do you know how many yards he averaged per game in those years? Not a lot. Yeah, 2013. Probably about what equates to 600 yards on the Jacksonville Jaguars. He had 56 yards per game in 2013 and 38 in 2014. The guy is not going to get yards. He is a red zone beast. I will concede that point that in the end zone, he is fantastic.

How many times were the Jacksonville Jaguars going to get to the end zone? Here's what I want to do, because we've got to move it on. I bring them up because you have them at 19, I have them at 6. I want a top 10 bet with you. If you have them at 19, that's a more than reasonable bet. Fantasy production, top 10, Julius Thomas. Done. Water bet. Boom. Put it on the board. There you go. All right. Number one, Rob Grankowski. He needs no introduction, although he would love one, I'm sure, probably with some...

dance music, some ladies. He is undoubtedly the number one tight end. He had a wonderful bounce back year last year. I have him going over the 1,200 yard mark and 16 touchdowns this year, making him the true and only game-changing tight end on my board. Is there much we need to say about him? He's good. That's Billy Madison. Farn.

He's good. Rob Grancowski is the single largest, and I'm not talking over quarterbacks to me, the single largest positional advantage that you can gain in fantasy football. The only question with Grunk is still the health. People are going to... You have a risk. He's good to go. He played all of last year. He's good to go. The previous two years, he did not.

Why does he, real quick caveat to that, you brought up the help. Why every time does he get hit, does he fly across the field? He's like, does he run off balance? I mean, does he run so fast? His skeletal, what is the opposite of adamantium? Because whatever that is, that's what his skeletal structure is composed of. He looks like he's a crash test dummy. Every time he gets into a, somebody tackles him. He's just, he's got a flare for the dramatic. Oh, okay.

So the question on Gronk, I think, is where to draft him, because clearly he's a first rounder, and Mike brings up the most important point on Gronk, which is his positional advantage. Every single game that you go in, you have a...

I mean, normally on average, you're talking like a six point advantage over, you know, your middle of the road tied in on your other team. And he'll win you many games. And so where do you draft him? Because I could see going as high as, you know, especially with the Libby on Bell News, to me, I'm like, that makes him even all the more important. So where do we take him in the first round?

That's a good question. And the answer is probably the back half. Yeah, if I'm going to take him. Probably I won't get him is what I'm saying. And when you take him, you have to be making that swap in your mind. You're saying, I'm taking my wide receiver one. And that's Goronkowski at the tight end. So I'm going to try and shore it up with some other stuff. To me, where you have to take him, I can't see him being on any of my teams.

I would love to have them on my teams, unlike Jimmy Graham. But the cost of Gronk is... Julio Jones or Rob Gronkowski? For where you're getting, Julio, I'd take Gronk there. Because if I'm in the second half of the first round, and I'm in a normal snake draft, and I know that my second round pick is going to be a little bit higher, then I'll take... Okay, if you're staring down Antonio Brown or Rob Gronkowski. At number, I don't know, seven. At number seven, I take Gronk. Okay.

I think I do too because of the positional advantage. But that would be tough. Because I think that when I look at, you know, okay, so I didn't take that wide receiver in the first round. So my wide receivers, you know, are a slight tier lower. But I look at the difference between my third wide receiver and who I can get even off the waivers. A lot easier to find value at that wide receiver. Versus how in the world I could make up that positional advantage. It's not the same. My issue is, see, here's how I see Gronk. I see Gronk as like.

pretty much worthy of the number one pick in the draft. Honest to goodness, I think that he is worthy of that. The problem is that if you're taking him in the first, second, third spot, you don't pick again until so long. That's really my issue. It's not, is he worth more than Antonio Brown? I always think he is. It's just, how late is my next pick? One, two, three, four, five, or you wait on a guy we love like Travis Kelsey.

for the turn of the third or something like that. But if you're telling me I can get Gronk, like I'm saying I'm at eight, seven or eight, and I can get Gronk, and you're telling me Jeremy Hill's going to come back to me, then boom, maybe I do that. Game over, man. So our top 10, Fleener, Cameron Witten, Ertz, Gates, our top five, Bennett, Olson, Graham, Kelsey, and Gronkowski. Draft them all. Mailbag. Bain!