Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Top 10 TE, TE Sleepers, News, Mailbag

Yeah. Number five, Martellus Bennett. Martellus Bennett. Here's a guy who ran the most passing routes of all tight-ins last year. And Brandon Marshall comes off the field now. The offense changes a little bit. But he had a great year last year. He surprised some people. His familiarity with Cutler attracts me to him. So I like Martellus Bennett. He's my number four overall. Looks like you guys don't.

Like him as much as I do, you have them both at number nine. So what scares you about Martellus Bennett, Jason? What scares me about Martellus Bennett mainly is Mark Trussman leaving and the offense changing. I think that if you look at his career and how he's been used, there's going to be a bounce back. I mean, the...

You know, he has in the past received, you know, up near, he had 90 targets one year, 96 targets. You know, those are good numbers and they're serviceable for a tight end for sure. But last year with Tressman, he had 129 targets. That was, you know, the wheeling and dealing offense that was in Chicago. There's no way that happens this year, in my opinion. I just don't think he's.

ever going to see 129 targets again in his career. So I just simply kept him at the same production kind of output per target and dropped his targets a little bit. And that drops him in my rankings. I just don't see him as really a top five tight end. I know that Brandon Marshall is leaving, which could open things up for a couple more targets. But I think Brandon Marshall leaving is going to be eaten up mostly by a change of offense and by Alshan Jeffrey.

Yeah, for me, it's just to emphasize in 2012 and 2013, he averaged 60 receptions, and that shot up to 90, and I see that more as the outlier than the norm for him. Very fair. I wonder what his touchdown production is going to be like in that offense down at the goal line for them. That should be an interesting thing to watch. I wouldn't sleep on him. Very good takes, though. Let's go on to number four on our list. I'm...

How, four, we're zipping. We are zipping. Let's go through the top 10 here. We had Kobe Fleener at 10, Jordan Cameron at 9, Jason Witten at 8, Zachertz at 7, Antonio Gates at 6, Martellus Bennett at 5. And now we're moving on to a darling for many a fantasy owner last year, including...

Mike the Fantasy Hitman. Yes. He ran the second most passing rounds of all tight ends last year. He also has a super high snap count. I think it's in the top two or three. 96.6%. Yeah, that's pretty good. Greg Olson at number four, finally displaying over a whole year the potential we knew he had. A go-to guy for Cam Newton in an offense that has very few passing weapons. I don't see a lot of things I don't like about Greg Olson doing the exact same thing this year. What is your take, Hitman?

So Greg Olson has, he's been similar to Jason Whitten over the last years or so. Once he got to Carolina, just a really steady guy. He never had that super sexy season until last year. So here's my slight concerns with the draft value of Greg Olson. Last year was his first ever over a thousand yards. So people are going to fall in love with that thousand yards, but that's...

not the norm for him. He's usually a great player, but because of that, he's going to move up to maybe back of third, fourth round, because people are going to itch for that tight end. They're going to see Greg Olson and what he did last year, and they're going to grab him. Two, he's a bit of an older guy, and he got paid again. That's, to me... Those are the possible red flags you're saying? Yes. It's for me, when an older guy gets paid kind of on his last check, it's not saying that's...

for sure going to happen to Greg Olson, but it's just one of those, the red flags. The positive is his snap count in the last three years running, he's had over 100 targets. And that's what you want for a tight end. Yeah.

Yeah, he is just like Witten and Gates. He's old reliable. But I think you bring up a great point. You always, always, always in fantasy, you want to draft people who are going to be better than the year before. Because their average draft position is normally determined by that. I mean, sometimes we're predicting so much better that their average draft position has that. But essentially, you want guys who are going to be better than the year before, not worse, if you want to beat that ADP. And in all honesty, Greg Olson is pretty much.

probably going to be a little worse than last year. He's still going to be reliable and where you're getting him. I don't have a problem if you take him. But he might not be on many of your teams due to that ADP. Exactly. And I also think he is a rookie watch. You want to, I expect them to go out and get a wide receiver in the draft. If they don't, then that's fine. But you look, he's been over 100 targets the last few years. But last year, you know, they lose Steve Smith and he pops up about, you know, 15 targets. I think they go and get a new rookie and they've got another option to outlet the ball to.

Maybe he still stays right around that 100 mark. So I just see a slight regression. Still have him top five, but probably won't be on my team. Yeah, just the last quick note, because I watched a lot of Greg Olson last year since I owned him, and he's a really fun player to watch. Hopefully, Carolina realized that when you throw Greg Olson the ball, you win. I noticed a lot.

When they were getting the ball to him, that's when the offense was really working and it would open things up for the other guys. But when they stopped going to him, that's when the team fell apart. So hopefully the coaching staff realized that. It'll be interesting, too, to see if they're productive in the running game with Jonathan Stewart and how that... Oh, they will be. How that impacts the... For six games. For six games. So, yeah, if I'm looking at our consensus rankings, it sure seems like these next two guys are in that tier two. So Olson and then these next two and then...

You've got Gronk stands alone. I don't think I'm surprising people at number one. But let's go ahead and go from Greg Olson at number four, and let's jump to kind of a surprise of our layer. I mean, really, right? We're saying there's a different tier for us as the footballers in the three and then the rest. Am I wrong there? No, I think Gronk stands alone in tier one. Right. And then I think based on how we consensus ranked, it would have been Kelsey, Graham, and Olson.

Which I just spoiled our list. But number three, we have actually Jimmy Graham. Jimmy Graham at number three. Foolish. Jason has him at number two. I want to hear this. We have him at number three. I don't think this is a great disparity, but apparently we're going to fight about it. Well, yeah, we'll get to that. There's not much else to do on a show right now in April. No, that's fine. We've got to fight. And Mike has already admitted he's bad at fighting, so I'm taking it on. Questions? Not with my mouth. Questions all over the place with Jimmy Graham.

Consensus in the expert, you know, in the industry is Jimmy Graham's not going to be able to put up the same production in Seattle as New Orleans. Maybe it's unknown. Maybe it's the style of the offense. I think it all works together. Obviously they traded the Sun Moon and Stars to get him. They did. Also known as Max Unger. That's his nickname. His wife gave him that. Sun Moon and Stars. Yeah. That's like a Game of Thrones nickname. Max, the Sun Moon and Stars Unger.

Maybe that'll stick. So I don't know even who to throw it to. He's my number three. Jason's going first. So Jason gets to lay out why he likes him again and you get to undress him after that. Okay. Exactly. Go ahead, Jason. Tell us why you like this Jimmy Graham guy. I've never heard of him. All right. I've got him number two. I've got him number two for obvious reasons, which is he's the second best tight end for fantasy.

And those are really obvious reasons. I have no problem with that, by the way. Right. Yeah, I mean, obviously we're quarreling over small things, but we love to quarrel for fun. So here's some things I like about Jimmy Graham. One, we know that he himself is very talented, is a mismatch on the field, is a great wide receiving tight end. And so there's all that to love. I also love that they wanted a tight end.

for a long time. They were trying to get him the year before. They've tried to trade for other big pieces. But that leads me to believe. But they have Luke Wilson, dude. They have Luke Wilson. Exactly. Thank you guys for agreeing with me. But you don't like Jordan Cameron. No, no, no. But that's not me. I'm saying maybe Pete Carroll does. But Pete Carroll has been trying to get a hold of an offensive pass-catching weapon from the tight-in position. Why? Because it fits their makeup.

perfect for the type of team they are for having those rollouts and hit that tight in stretching the field. It's really a great weapon. Now, I expect his numbers to drop. I definitely have him lower. What's funny here is that as we were debating off the show, Mike and I, you know, he's like, I don't understand how you've got Jimmy, you know, where you've got him and all this. So I took a look at our numbers. Here's where I've got Jimmy Graham happening. And we really do a lot of...

quality research on this show. We went through and looked at every target. You guys do that? Yeah, we do that. I pull mine out of a hat. Yeah. So we go through and we look at the targets, you know, every target that was gone to a tight end from Seattle, you know, combine those numbers, say what percentage do we think is going to go to Jimmy Graham? What's his...

you know, catch rate and yards. And so we get the numbers, and we do this independently. We don't do this together. And coming together now today, we see, here's where I've got Jimmy Graham. I've got Jimmy Graham catching 70 balls, 1,000 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Mike, this is where you got Jimmy Graham. And I think I might have to evaluate this. 65, 850, and 8. And Andy, you've got Jimmy Graham.

at 81, 924, and 10. So me and you are almost identical on our Jimmy Graham numbers. They are not really crazy numbers. They're not numbers that I don't think are going to be difficult to reach. But where that puts him is really at that number two spot. So when it comes to the Jimmy Graham talk, I think we all agree he's going to be a great tight end to own. He's going to get a good amount of yards.

800 guaranteed yards, maybe up to 1,000 yards. That's probably the highest end. He's going to get touchdowns in that offense. And so the real question here as to why I say it's crazy to have him number two versus number three is more about the next guy that we'll get to is whether or not Travis Kelsey has taken that leap. And so let's keep talking about Jimmy Graham, and we'll talk about Travis Kelsey next. So first to address your numbers.

74,000 puts him at an average catch rate of 14.29 yards. His career average is 12. So you think he's going to go up two yards a catch moving from Drew Brees to Russell Wilson. And so here's a couple target things that we need to talk about. The highest targeted receiver from Seattle the past two years has been under 100 targets. The tide end?

uh total you take them all you combine them together last year you get 84 now i agree and i will concede that jimmy graham's going to get some targets more than the the tight ends that they had on their team but here's the problem with jimmy graham volume jimmy graham has averaged 137 targets in his career and with those targets he has a 66%

catch rate from Drew Breeze, the second most accurate quarterback running the last two years at just under 70%. Wilson, 63%. Who's catching the ball for Wilson? I mean, that affects your catch. Right, but I'm just saying that... I don't think anybody debates that Breeze is more accurate than Wilson, regardless of who's catching the ball. He's one of the most accurate in history. So you're combining accuracy with volume, and you're going... Not that I think Russell Wilson is not accurate, but...

You take some accuracy down, you take volume down, and you're going to get worse. So one more quick thing I'll point out before Andy jumps in. The Saints passed 62% of plays. Three teams. Three teams passed more than them. Seattle passed 46% of the time. You know how many teams passed less than them? Zero. They were the lowest passing percentage team in the NFL.

Yeah, it seems like they really need an offensive weapon that can catch the ball. Yeah, I mean, well, he's admitting that, and I think we all know, comparing old titans to new titans in Seattle is ridiculous. Jimmy Graham is a otherworldly weapon. He's going to change the red zone offense and those type of things. I think what I'm hearing, and I agree with, and why he's three on my list and not two, is simply, and this isn't really...