Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Top 10 TE, TE Sleepers, News, Mailbag

targeted tight-in down the field. With Andre Johnson and Frank Gore coming in, you're going to use Kobe Fleener as a stretch tight-in. And so the same thing that he did last year is going to be replicated this coming year. If he's on the field, it's going to help. That's for sure. If they keep running those two tight-in sets. Let's move on to number nine. Number nine, we have Jordan Cameron. I'm going to kick it over to Mike here because I thought I'd be the highest guy on him. I think I had him at nine.

But Mike, you had him up at 7, so we both see something in him, assuming he stays healthy. Yes. So what is your take on Jordan Cameron? Because here's a guy who's transitioning to a new team. He has way more question marks than a lot of these guys. So why do we have him in our top 10? So here's the deal with Jordan Cameron. It's all about health for him. Now, when you go back and I bring up the combine. I like the combine. When Jordan Cameron was drafted, he was the top performer.

in every single tight-end category that matters. Did you guys know that? Yes. No. I only knew that because you've said that before. Oh, well, I say it because it's important. That he's true. He's a very athletic guy. He's got good hands. He can get, he can do it all. He can get down the field. I don't mind this, I don't mind the change of scenery. Ryan Tannenhill likes the tight end. Charles Clay last, or in last year,

He was injured, so he missed a couple games, was on a 96 target pace. The year before, 102 targets. So Ryan Tannenhill throws to the tide end. I think that Cameron continues to play with being surpassed in the draft. He was the fourth tight end taken. So despite his outstanding measurables, there was guys like Kyle Rudolph, Lance Kendricks. And here's something that may or may not shock you guys or the audience.

Rob Housler was drafted ahead of Jordan Cameron. Now, I think that speaks more to Ken Wisenhunt's ability to not draft. I like the silence after that. But I just, I like Jordan Cameron in this spot. Tanyhill's going to throw in the ball and he's a good player. One thing I noticed last year, too, is that that offense moved differently when Clay was healthy when he wasn't healthy.

You know, you move Wallace out. It's not like Stills as a volume guy, so I think Landry and Cameron end up scooping up a lot of those unless they end up signing a guy like Crabtree, or they sign another free agent. You're laughing because Crabtree playing in the NFL is comedic to you. It is. But, yeah, I think Cameron is a guy who, again, it's going to come down to health. I think that's got to be one of the reasons Jason has them lower than we do is because... It is not. Okay, well... But go on. I'll get... Sure. I guess you have something to say. Go ahead.

I'm just saying, you said that Tanna Hill, Mike, that he targets his receiver. He threw about 100 balls, a little less than that, but about 100 balls to the tight-in position.

That's total to the tight end position. But even on the teams where there's a dominant tight end and there's one clear cut tight end, normally the highest percentage you see there is like 80% of the targets going to the tight end. So if you get 80% of the targets, you say he gets 80 balls and he's going to catch a great percentage. He's going to catch 65% for a tight end. That puts him at about 60 catches. I mean, that's where I've got him targeted. And that's if he plays 16 games. So 60 balls.

On a 16-game schedule, I just don't see the real huge upside other than he had great physical numbers. I just don't think it's that type of a... I haven't met 69 catches for 737 yards and five touchdowns. And the only thing I'll say to your stat point about Tanna Hill is the fact Clay was injured last year. So they didn't really have a guy to go to outside of Clay. The target numbers are there. In 2013, he had 102.

Last year he had 84, despite all the injuries, saying he was on pace for a 96 target year. Man, this is such a confrontational beginning to our tight-in ranking. Just wait until Jimmy Graham comes up. So let's move on to number eight on our list, the tried and true man, Jason Witten, the man who like Fred Jackson never ages. Here's a guy who, if you had to spell his name differently, it would be reliable. Hmm.

He's a reliable tight-in. Third lowest drop rate in the league. You always see Romo going to him in two-minute drill situations. His problem over the years has been touchdown production. It's actually changed a little bit over the last two years, but I am concerned that I have him at 800 plus yards this year, but only getting three touchdowns. So he is number eight on our consensus list.

When I was researching Jason Witten and looking up all his career stats, which are just amazing, I mean, do you think he's a Hall of Famer? Yes. Yes. Yeah, I agree. His stats really are amazing. And I looked up, you know, losing DeMarco Murray is going to obviously make Tony Romo probably throwing the ball more. They're not going to run it 700 times again. And while they will still be a running team, Jason Witten actually had a pretty darn good year last year. But as I looked, there was every.

reason every logical piece of information said he's going to have a better year this year than last year he's only 32 he's not

You know, sometimes we think, okay, he's ready to fall off because he had slightly down year. But they threw so much less in Dallas last year. And so I moved him up in my rankings quite a bit. And then I looked at your guy's rankings and saw, because I thought I was going to be crazy. I thought you guys were going to be like, no, he's dead. And then I looked at you guys and you both have him higher than me. And I think there's a complete consensus here that he is a great value to target. We both actually have him at 10, you and I.

Oh. But Mike has him all the way up at number five. So he's definitely on the radar for you. Is that just touchdowns? No, it's all about, so the line he put up last year of 64, 700 yards, five touchdowns. He had the lowest targets and the lowest amount of reception since 2006. And he had per catch or lowest yards per game since his rookie year. Like Jason said, DeMarco Murray's gone, they're still going to run.

But I don't think they're going to have a guy who they can give the ball to 400 times. Because right now, Darren McFadden? Joseph Randall, even if you take a super stud alleged in the draft like Melvin Gordon, you're going to give the rookie 400 carries? You're going to destroy him in one year. So you can't run it as much as they did last year. And even with his down year, his yards per reception were still good.

And I like to call Jason Witten for a tight end. I call him the tortoise. What I mean by that is he's slow and he's steady. He's not going to give you that outlier performance of like a Gronkowski, but he's going to be a guy who performs for you.

every week what you need from the tight end position to not lose your week. He's not sexy like some of these other guys, but he's super, like you said, he's a value pick. So don't sleep on him the way people slept on Gates last year. That's exactly what I was going to point out is like we're waiting for the old guys to drop off, but you, they have to actually do it. And there's no reason. Zero reason to think it's happened. It's one of the biggest problems just on a...

One minute tirade here. It happened with Frank Gore. It happened with Marshawn Lynch last year. We are so quick in this industry to throw a guy out. It happened to Calvin Johnson on the last show by Jason. They had him two points off the number one spot. You had him at number nine or something like that. I want to cry. No, I...

That's more of a joke. But yeah, we want to move on to that next guy so quickly. And so we need to be careful there because you can get value on that tried and true name like we're saying. So number seven, we have a guy that's a little bit more sexy to people, Zach Ertz. Zach Ertz. Zach Ertz is at number seven for us. I have one piece of information on Ertz. He's behind Fleener. He's the second most targeted downfield tied in. He had the most targets of...

Or the second most targets of throws over 20 yards. And so for me, Ertz is a guy that actually, I have him at 900 yards this year. I have him at 70 receptions, though, and five touchdowns. And so that puts him probably a little bit higher on my list. He's at seven for me. That's where we're out. Yeah, that's where Jason and I both have him. And Mike, you have him a little bit lower. I don't blame you for that at all based on his inability to pass block. But...

Is that what it comes down to, snap count for you? Yes. So Zach Ertz was on the field. He was a sleeper darling last year. And then he got on the field for 50% of snaps. If your guy's not on the field, he can't give you fantasy production. With his snaps, he was a great player. He got 89 targets. The problem is he's a liability in the past protection. He's an okay run blocker, but Brent Selick is much better at both.

This is what I will say about Zachertz. Our friend, Andrew Goldwasser, who writes for NFL SpinZone.com, raves about Zachertz constantly. So for him, it's just a matter of can he get on the field. Zachers, this year, I think people are going to be very, very down on him. And when you're talking about the tight end position, if you don't get one of your top four ranked guys, you just wait it out forever. And Zacherts is going very, very late. I imagine he'll be going.

10th round, maybe even the 11th, when the draft season really hits, and the flyer on a guy who has the upside, there is perfect. That's what you want to do to win your league. Yeah, with Jeremy Macklin out, I think there's going to be more targets to go around, more people they've got to go out in, you know, throwing patterns. I think...

You had him as a liability sometimes in the run game, and so he was on the field 50% of the time. They want more out of him, and I don't see any chance that that number stays that low. I think that that number grows, but even at 50%, he still caught almost 60 balls and 700 yards, but he only had three touchdowns. I've got him almost identically statted to where you did, Andy, without looking at each other's stats, were almost identical across the board. So I actually think...

His career arc reminds me a lot of Fleener, where you have a guy that's got so much potential as a pass catcher, but hasn't quite done enough to get me excited. You know, you talk about snap count, Mike. One of the sleeper candidates for me that's not on our list is Heath Miller, because Heath Miller is the number one in terms of snap count.

tight ends last year and he's not going to he's he's a lot like whitton or he's not going to give you that monstrous game but man i if i'm not one of those first four tight ends and i'm drafting late i want to just see my guy on the field it's one of the hardest things when you're playing fantasy and you're watching for your tight end and he's not even out there yeah he doesn't even come out on the field so look for look at that snap count uh let's move on to number six jason you've got

Actually, both of you guys have him finishing at number six overall. That's Antonio Gates. I actually did move him down right after I said one of my pet peeves was people giving up on guys. I have him down at 12. Jason, Mike, Antonio Gates keeps doing it? Yeah, for me, it's the last two years, his stat line was almost identical except for touchdowns. And the touchdown was an anomaly last year. That was my take, too. He had 12. However, he's...

He's always a high touchdown guy. I mean, so seven, eight is not out of the realm of possibilities. This could be Philip Rivers could be his last stand in San Diego. And he loves throwing the ball to Antonio Gates. Antonio Gates is going into the Hall of Fame. And he's in the Hall of Fame, really, for tight ends. Yeah, he's in the Hall of Fame for sure. He won people leagues for a long time. And I think that there's... He did last year, too, probably.

Yeah, yeah. And for where he was going. And where he's going again this year. I mean, he's not going to be seen as, oh, Gates is still bad. Gates is solid. Every year, it's going to be, oh, he's a year older. He's going to fall off. And you're trying to predict the falloff. I think Mike's right. The falloff might come with Rivers. Because when Rivers is there, he's the go-to guy. He's a when push comes to shove, second lowest drop rate among all tight ends. He's good. And that foot problem, which is what held him back, is finally gone.