The Fantasy MVP Episode! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/4

personally, I've got AJ Brown ahead of those two wide receivers, and I can get him in the second round. So I feel like it's this really nice combination of where he's going is totally acceptable. And here's the case for why I think he's actually like a good player this year. The whole thing against Agent Brown is just, does he lose it? You know, if it's gone, it's gone. He's an older player. You know, his numbers weren't.

quite as great last year. So maybe we saw the beginning of the end. And if so, then he's going to be a terrible pick. But I don't think that that's the case at all. We saw through camp he dominated. He dominated the total targets through training camp in targets and receptions. There were certain matchups when they were playing against the Seahawks in...

practices, those inner team practices where the beat reporters were just saying he just dominated like they've never seen someone dominate, especially around the red zone. He was the wide receiver 10 last year, and he missed two games. And also, he was on a team that threw for 3,400 yards. Now he goes to a team that last year threw for 4,400 yards, add another 1,000 yards in there. You also get a much better passing quarterback.

I love Jalen Hertz. I think he's a good quarterback. He is not the same passing quarterback that Drake May is. Drake May and Brown is an elite stack. May through 10 plus yards down the field at the fifth highest rate. And on those throws, he led the quarterbacks in completion rate, success rate, and pass rating. You lose Stefan Diggs. A.J. Brown comes in. He's going to get all the targets for a great quarterback.

And if you go, okay, well, he's old and he's switching teams, and so I'm out, there are a tier of wide receivers, a real special. Like, these guys aren't just a good wide receiver. These guys are one of the best in the league, which AJ Brown over the last, you know, seven years has been one of the best wide receivers in the league. You've got enough examples. Like Randy Moss when he went to the Patriots, obviously he's first Bell Hall of Famer. Yeah, that worked out.

But, I mean, he set the NFL touchdown record with 23 touchdowns, 1,500 yards. DeVante Adams, when he went to the Raiders at 29, 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns. Brandon Marshall at age 31, 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns. Terrell Owens at 30, 1,214 in only 14 games. Did you mention that Moss was 30 as well? I don't know if I gave his age. He was 30 when he went to New England. Exactly. A.G. Brown is 29.

You know, he's going to a perfect environment with a quarterback that fits him so well. This was like the argument for George Pickens and Dak Prescott last year. What Drake May does great, A.J. Brown does great. They need him. They've got vacated targets. He's going to be loud. It all lines up to me where it's either he's lost it and he's not good anymore and he's a terrible pick or if he's still A.J. Freaking Brown, he's going to go out there and.

have 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. That's very much in his range of outcome. So he's my fantasy MVP. I'm in on him. I am bullish on him not having lost it. I mean, I like AJ Brown. Yeah, I'm all in. I get it. I've been there. I know that there is, I think the offense altogether has some aggression coming potentially, efficiency-wise. But, you know, the biggest argument of that extra 1,000 yards passing offense, it's hard to.

I think it just does come down to, is he the same guy? Right, that's it. And you want me to go next, Mike? Sure. So we talked about Jamison Williams earlier, who I think is a discount in drafts, wide receiver 25 in the back of the fifth round. The way I view the fantasy MVP pick is somebody that you can always draft that is going to be a complete game changer for your team over the back half of the year.

This guy is the highest paid free agent receiver in the history of the National Football League when he signed. He is going in the eighth and ninth round. Both of them? Yeah, eight. Wow. I mean, yes. The answer is yes based on the league. Sleeper and ESPN. It is Alec Pierce of the Indianapolis Colts. I have been in the Alec Pierce camp. I don't really. I have a hard time understanding why.

people are not on board with Alec Pierce this is a team that like he went out last year his games with basically he had a concussion in the beginning of the year when he came back from the concussion this was like 1,250 yard pace despite the fact he lost Daniel Jones for part of the year then the team lets Michael Pittman depart then the team pays him $114 million this is not a nine right even though he's led the league in yards per reception you go look at his routes last year 55% of them

I mean, I watched so much Alec Pierce last year during the season. He was on my teams. He ran 55% digs, ins, crossings, go routes. I mean, he does more than people understand that he can do. And then you get rid of the intermediate guy. And you say, well, Josh Downs is just going to step in and fix that. Keenan Allen's going to step in and fix that. No, their number one wide receiver is Alec Pierce. If you look at Detroit, Detroit has Amanraa St. Brown, Jamir Gibbs in the passing game, and Sam Laporta.

to go compete with James for those targets. That's why you get more variability there. I think Alec Pierce is going to wake people up to the type of player he is in a fantasy environment. We looked at every 1,000-yard receiver and where they went the next year in drafts historically. Over the last five years, the only 1,000-yard receiver drafted later than Pierce. We saw a 34-year-old Adam Thielen and a 32-year-old...

The Andre Hopkins. Oh, Adam. I've been gone for so long. And then we saw a 33-year-old Stefan Diggs. Thank you for remembering me. And it traded Wondell Robinson because one day I had a thousand last year and he's not going high this year. Otherwise, Pierce is literally, statistically, the cheapest thousand-yard receiver. And he's not 33, 32, 34 years old. He's going into the prime of his career. And so I don't think, I mean, this was the wide receiver 23 being drafted in the ninth round right now.

Who is practicing and going to play in week one? Does he have a fast start? I don't know. Is Daniel Jones an MVP? He was for the first seven weeks last year, and then he was injured. So there are questions, but there's margin for all error for this pick to still be a home run for your fantasy team. I think Alec Pierce belongs in the Jameson Williams category area of drafts, but he's being drafted in the eighth or ninth round. And let me give you a little spoiler alert.

That's where he'll go this weekend. Guaranteed. He's not going anywhere else. No. I've been wanting, you know, the injury slowed up my ability to really get behind him because we just didn't know how available he'd be. To me, this is just crazy. Last year with Michael Pittman, he was a B inconsistency. So this whole talk of like, he only does one thing. No, he wasn't doing one thing. He exceeded 10 and a half fantasy points, 53% of the time. That beat Devante Smith. That beat Jefferson. That beat Jaylon Waddle last year.

there's a reason they paid him $114 million. And if the Colts didn't do it, he was getting it somewhere else. He was going to be the best free agent on the market. So to me, this was a commitment to him. And I look at that depth chart and I say, well, who else is catching the ball in high value, important plays? I mean, he's proven he can score touchdowns. Last year, his pays 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns with Michael Pittman. I don't know. I'm all in.

I think the cost is wonderful. The ankle injury that's kept them off. I mean, this is buying the injury dip, which I don't usually like. But statistically, when we talk about that, we're talking about the higher drafted players that drop a round or two. When you're this low and you're in the eighth or ninth round, I'm looking at ADP and some of the guys who's going around. Cortland Sutton? No, thank you. Like what is the upside case? Right. Because when you're drafting this late, that's the only thing you need to worry about. If it doesn't work out for.

for Cortland Sutton or Alec Pierce or anyone in that range, it doesn't matter. It didn't cost you that much. You're just drafting like, what if it does work out? And obviously, the best case scenario for Alec Pierce would be that he, you know, really does become the possession guy, the number one for a good offense. And that's in his range of outcomes. So, you know, I was not having a lot of love for Alec Pierce most of the offseason. I assumed he would be back healthier earlier.

be higher in ADP you're right Andy this weekend he's going to stay right where he's at behind tons of other players this episode isn't going to move him quick enough and uh yeah he's definitely worth taking a shot there looking at mine and Andy's uh fantasy MVP I think uh what we did was we took my guys that we just were like uh yeah

There's just a little bit too much going on for me to go full my guy with this player, but I love them because we think they are difference makers. I'm going with the running back from Jacksonville, Bayshall Tooting going as the running back 26. And I've been the, I've been the bull case for Bayshall Tootin on the show. And yet even if you guys, you aren't where I am, we're still above market.

With where we are with Bayshall Tootin, I'm seeing a running back 26 ADP on Sleeper. Our consensus has them as the running back 21. I love Liam Cohen. I love the Jaguars offense. I took them in there are our top 12 offenses draft. I think they're going to be extremely high powered. I will start it with the, I am accepting the risk. When you draft Tutin, it's an ambiguous backfield for a reason. You don't 100% know.

how things are going to shake out. What I do know is that we have, you know, essentially two strong years of Liam Cohen data when he was the O.C. for Tampa Bay, where Bucky Irving had over 200 carries and 52 targets. And I can say, you know, what else happened on that team? Rashad White had 144 carries and 57 targets. Now, the Jags are not, it's a different offense than the bucks. The

just dripping with wide receiver depth. But my point is, there's a lot to go around in a Liam Cohen offense. While Bucky, we looked at him, he was the clear leader. Rashad White was still getting plenty of opportunity. And I'm bringing that up of the Bayshall-Tooten versus Krodd. Who is going to be the guy? I don't know 100%, but I'm putting my bet on Tutin, the guy who was there last. You're betting on the talent of the player. Absolutely. And the guy who was there last year. And I bring that up because like,

Bucky Irving, you know, two years ago, that's workhorse numbers. Travis H.N. Jr. was a true workhorse for Jacksonville last year. So if Tootin can get that, he's going to be incredible. Like the early down roll, I think that's easy. That's for Tootin. It comes down to the goal line and the past catching opportunities, which we have LeQuint Allen reportedly going to work in on some third downs, but he has been banged up. In Bayshaw Tootin's profile and Virginia Tech,

12% of Virginia Tech's receptions and the threshold we want from our RB1s from college to pro is 11%. We saw that from Tutin. His athletic measuring is truly off the charts. And if he gets goal line, which you're like, that makes sense to think, okay, well, it's going to be crawled. Bachel Tutin was awesome at it. Last year, 25% of Tutton's carries were short yardage.

where you needed three or fewer yards for a first down or you're trying to get a touchdown. That led to destroying his yards per carry down at 3.7. But I've brought this up before. He was fifth among all running backs in rush success rate, meaning whatever the yards that they need on that down, he was coming through. He was getting them. Even if it's not over four a carry, he's getting exactly what the team needs. Last year, seven five zone carries turned into.

five zone touchdowns, five of them. Like he was extremely good at it. Him and Crod were both good at it, weren't they? Yes. Where H.N. Jr. last year was, he was not good at the goal line. Tutin was high-powered offense. It's ambiguous. I really don't mind people taking shots at Crodd. I took him in the mock draft yesterday of just sometimes you got a hedge. But I really, really do think that it's going to end up being Bayshall Tudin as the main guy.

And the speed that I mentioned, like this is a player who can, you can rip off 60-yard touchdowns when you are Bayshall-Tooten fast. So I love him. I love Jacksonville. I love this offense. And I want to take some gambles on ending up with their starting running back. So what are we doing for the rest of the show, guys? Are we, we wrapping things up? All right.

That is going to do it. That was a very open discussion about the progress of the show. Well, I looked, we had another segment. I was hoping Jason, because I sound like this, I was hoping Jason was going to jump in for a second and talk about Bachel. As was I. But then he just left you. Well, look, my bold prediction is that the Jaguar picks are going to. That's true. It's just going to be too. Well, you didn't want to poop on it. Yeah, I don't. Look, I get the upside case. Everything you laid out. Right. It's there. If he hits, he could be in that league winner.