NFC North Breakdown + Big Time Upside - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/20

why I think Jamal Williams had so many touchdowns. They're like, hey, we're near the goal line. Let's just push this in with our great offensive line. And that's why I like David Montgomery because he's filling that role. And Jared Goff's still the quarterback. They do have a juicy start to the year because they face Kansas City in week one, which. But it's on the road. Yeah, it's on the road, but the over and under 54 points already. And then they're at home against Seattle, at home against Atlanta. I'm just pointing that out because you could make a bet on some of these guys. And if those first three weeks are terrible, it's a bad bet. So if I'm looking at it right, trying to quickly box score hunt, on the road, Jared Goff had one great game. It was on the road against the Carolina Panthers, who were not the best team. He was the quarterback two that week. But other than that,

His highest finish on a road game, looking at how we have it on our website, would have been QB 17. So he had the one explosive game on the road, and then the other ones were just not great. Now, there is, the bull case for Jared Gough is, what was the number of Jamal Williams rushing touchdowns? 17. If that bounces, like, which it will. Even if David, if Montgomery, who we project to be the goal line back, gets 10. Kent. Right, which would be a good year. And seven or so touchdowns bounce back to Jared Goff. That's a pretty big difference. And Jameson Williams is a home run hitter. When he gets him back midseason, that's a player they didn't have available last year. I think he had one catch, right? And it was a touchdown. Yes. That was it, right? I think that was it. Yeah. For a touchdown. He will be a player that really elevates the offense, I think.

In the beginning, they may be leaning on the past catching work of these two running backs, though. So let's talk about them. Jamir Gibbs, just an electric player, a wonderful pass catcher, a super, super early high draft capital selection by this team that kind of surprised everybody because they invested in David Montgomery, who is also a much better pass catcher than Jamal Williams was. They have pass catchers in the backfield that are going to be able to step in and provide value for golf. The GM just came out and we was talking about the changes and he mentioned that. He mentioned that David Montgomery is a much better pass catcher and it was ironic because and then he's talking up Jemir Gibbs' past catching. They are clearly wanting to utilize the running backs in the passing game. So that is another feather in the cap of Jared Goff where you go, okay, if the running game is going to start shifting.

to the air, little dump-offs to, I mean, Jemir Gibbs is going to have a 40-yard touchdown reception this year. That's going to go to golf. And, you know, those things will happen because he's so explosive. 25 receptions of 15-plus yards over the last three season for Jemir Gibbs at Alabama. He's very, very explosive. And he's a weapon more in the passing game than in the running game. This feels like a team that, it was like this last year, but maybe even more this year with Jemir Gibbs. a team where any week you could catch lightning in a bottle. At any week, you could kind of roll the dice on some of these options, even like golf in the streaming matchup. And if you catch one of those weeks where they are putting up a huge game, I mean, they were bad on defense, right? 29th against the rush, 30th against the pass, 28th and points against. They've tried to strengthen that. That's been kind of the Guns Mahoney, Dan Campbell, M.O. in his career, but they didn't have personnel to do that.

What's that? They tried to fix. Give me a break. They traded. I'm sorry. I know the Lions fans don't want to hear anymore. But you could have fixed it. You could have drafted a great edge rusher. Instead, you thought, you know what our team needs from last year? We need to just change our running backs who worked really good last year. We just need to slightly upgrade it, but get a linebacker. That'll help. It is a strange decision. We were joking about the, not joking, just looking at the facts of the NFL and the franchise tag and how the value of all these positions has gone up. The only positions that aren't paid more anymore or paid less is like running backs, they're pretty worthless. Linebackers, they're pretty worthless. Let's get a running back and a linebacker with our two most valuable picks. First, second and third round to the offense of side of the ball, including a quarterback and Hinden Hooker that won't play. So that part.

Maybe they're committing to their fantasy production, needing to throw the ball a lot. Montgomery, Gibbs. Gibbs has a huge ceiling. Yes, agreed. We talked about it when we're in the AFC West. Like it's easy for Eccler to finish high just because of the reception totals. Throw the touchdown predictability out. But Jamir Gibbs can hit home runs, check. Catches the ball better than, you know, wide receivers sometimes. Check. And then you have no Jameson Williams and an aged Marvin Jones. So the first six weeks could be the coming out party for Jemir Gibbs earlier than sometimes running back rookies even do produce. Yeah, he doesn't have to have 250 carries to be a top 10 running back. 181 carries would be fine. Receptions are worth so much more in fantasy football for running backs than carries are. I mean, it's just, Jamir Gibbs comes into the NFL as a top 10 receiving.

back in the NFL already. And then I'm sure quickly as his career progresses, he's going to change into the top five, top three, maybe the best pass catching running back. Mike, is the average app position of Amunrah St. Brown appropriate in your mind? Wide receiver nine right now, mid-second round pick. I think so. He is, we've talked about him a lot also over on the dynasty podcast of it just he had, all he has done is produce. You know, the back half of the rookie year, league winning player. Last year, he's the wide receiver eight. He was the wide receiver eight played in 16 games. The issue was you just, you had more goodish games than really explosive games. So I think that that just, that affects how you think about him. But he is, he is a great player. He's reliable and he's going to be.

Just absolutely peppered with so much work. It reminds me of like Deontay two years ago, that type of, like you got goodish games all the time. And like Keenan. And Keenan. Yeah. Or Landry from days of old. Yeah, I was going to say old school Landry is really my comp for him. The fact that he finishes the wide receiver eight and he only had six touchdowns, you can see that this is going to be a top 15 wide receiver as kind of a guarantee. And if touchdowns happen to come his way because like we said, Jamal Williams isn't punching him in, then he's a.

You know, he's a top six guy. 28% target share. All right, moving on to the Packers, eight and nine last year. No more Aaron Rogers. They had an 11 win total. It's love time. It's love time. Seven and a half is their win total this year. So it's gone down. They were four and five and one score games. Devante Adams was gone last year. There were 14th in points per game. 32nd in pace of play. Oh. so slow. Come on, man. So if you want to make the case for potential improvement and what Jordan Love brings to the table, maybe they can play faster. Maybe he can be less efficient than Aaron Rogers, but he just gets to, he just gets more plays, more opportunities to show us what he has. Is this a team? Let me put it this way as we walk through the weapons. There's a lot of kind of uncertainty around the Packers. Mm-hmm.

Is that opportunity for fantasy players? Is there the potential for this team to kind of come out? We've seen Matt LaFleur lead this team to division title after division title. Is there a world where this team makes a very seamless transition simply because of their kind of organizational stability, the fact that they have weapons like in Aaron Jones, Christian Watts in the high draft capital. Romeo Dobbs. Yeah. Are they a sneaky good fantasy option? I think they're a sneaky, I think they could be a sneaky good NFL team with, you know, well run by Matt LaFleur. They, you know, they're in a situation where they know how to win games. They're a well-run organization. The team construction roster-wise is very good. The obvious question mark, the hardship is, is Jordan Love any good? Because if Jordan Love sucks, then they're going to be a basement dwelling team because they don't have a quarterback.

And if Jordan Love comes out and says, yeah, I've been behind Aaron Rogers for years. I've learned. I know this system. I was drafted high for a reason. Look, I'm not bad. If he's just not bad, I think this is. He says that though. That's a problem. That is like if he actually vocalizes it. I've been trying to tell you that I'm not bad. Right. That's how I always really pump myself up. I am not bad at looking in the mirror. Every time he scores it throws a touchdown. Looks in the mirror. You're Jordan Love. You are not bad. You are not bad. Don't listen to them. You are not bad. But my point is, he doesn't have to be great for this team to do well. He just has to be what Jordan Love, I believe is, which is not bad. Okay. And what he believes. I think this is one of those ones where he may be, I think this may be a surprisingly good year for Jordan Luff. I can agree with that.

I was just talking to a buddy of mine who is a Packer fan. He's like, what do you think? Mike, he is, he, the, the roster that they have built is so strong around Jordan Love. And all he has to do is be, I guess not bad at the time I was saying if he just has to be an average quarterback and they can have success and win the division. Brooks is sending a note in our Slack channel that says it sounds like that's something Russell Wilson. would say to amp himself up after all those games last year. I'm not bad. I'm not bad. And then he rips a bite of the sandwich. Danger, bitch. So, yeah, they spent two of their first three picks on tight ends. They added Jaden Reed in the second round, another wide receiver weapon. These are very interesting teams to analyze for fantasy because by a lot of respects, Christian Watson, I mean.

This guy has wheels. You know, he just beats people in the secondary. Romeo Dobbs, we know he's talented. But there's so much of kind of doubting the kind of full potential of these players in Watson and Dobbs and, you know, this tight end room that they're adding. And we don't know what Jaden Reed's role is going to be. And A.J. Dillon was a bit of a disappointment last year. He was. The most known commodity by far is Aaron Jones. And I guess my point is that if they are good, if some of these. if there's a chance that they're a good team that can win the division, then Aaron Jones is going to have a much better season than the RB16 where he's being drafted. So he doesn't feel good to draft because you don't have this, you don't have the film in your head of Jordan Love and these other players moving the ball down the field and getting it done. But if they're middle of the pack, he will outperform RB 16. Yeah, I believe that actually almost every single one of the Packers players are.

going to outperform their ADP, the only one that is a little scariest Christian Watson. His hotness. But why did she were 25? Well, sure, but my... You should beat that. He could definitely beat that. I have him, I believe, higher than that. So obviously I'm projected. But he, my point is like, why did you for 25? That's a... That's a decent bar. Everyone else has the lowest bar ever. Aaron Jones has been a top 12 quarterback, a top 12 running back for years, and he's being drafted as the running back 16. You know, AJ Dillon's running back 32. Romeo Dobbs, wide receiver 61. Like, this team should outproduce this, this ADP. Yeah, and you can't really hold having a pile of touchdowns in a small.

set of games against Christian Watson. It's easy to do because it's not like, okay, he's not going to score three, two, one, one every single week. But like seeing it on display for a stretch of games when Aaron Rogers didn't have a great season showed the potential. Yeah. So whether this team lets Jordan Love, whether Jordan Love is capable of challenging downfield, we'll learn that. But everything's been very positive on the Jordan Love front. So I just want to keep our eyes open. To the point Jason made that maybe, I mean, they get to play Chicago in week one, Atlanta, week two. Then they're at home against New Orleans, at home against Detroit. There's some good potential games there. Teams see their quarterbacks behind the scenes more than we do. You know, Trey Lance has been in practice plenty for the 49ers. The 49ers clearly are like, they're wanting to, they're like, oh, what can we do? You know, the.

The Packers have moved on from Aaron Rogers. They chose to trade him. They chose to give, you know, another, you know, single year contract to Jordan Love and extend him a little bit. I think they believe in him. All right, duh, bears. Three and 14 last year, seven, seven win total in 2022, seven and a half this year. We kept joking that they were just kind of executing the plan. Like we had. productive fantasy games from Justin Fields, and yet they just would lose at the end and got themselves a number one pick and a big trade, and now they add DJ Moore, they add Deontief Foreman to the backfield after losing David Montgomery. So talk about the Bears, Mike. Sure. I mean, is there... I'll start it at the top with Justin Fields as he's going as the QB6, which that's fine.

But now we're in the wild world of quarterbacks are being drafted very early. Justin Fields at the back of the fourth, I think that's a, I think it's fair because I do think that there is a, there is a world where Justin Fields finishes as a top three quarterback because of his ability on the ground from week six on last year, almost 25 fantasy points a game, which is just, absolutely redonculus to be averaging that. And now you've added DJ Moore. We're not overly excited about DJ Moore for him of going from a low pass volume, maybe not the best pass in quarterback situation to another team that's the low volume. Justin Fields needs to improve as a passer. So like this isn't Stefan Diggs going to the bills. I don't think it's that type of an upgrade, but it's a massive upgrade to the wide receivers that they had last year.

like DJ Moore is a true number one. So to have a true number one out there, maybe you get something out of Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney is still around, who is an excellent deep threat. Like Justin Fields can take what he did on the ground and improve in the passing game, which is what I would project to happen. And that turns into like that's when you get Lamar Jackson's MVP here. When his run began, which was a long stretch, you're talking week six, Through the end of the year, he missed a couple games due to injury. But that was a 1,600-yard rushing pace for Justin Fields. And I do, I have wondered a little bit about blindness to DJ Moore. The song, when you put the DJ Moore album on, is the same song every single year. But the digs comparison, it's in your head because the shot, now I don't like the ADP.

I'm actually surprised it's not more depressed. I think it's one of those things where the trade has propped it up. I wish it was lower because then I would be in. But I do think that there's a chance you have a breakout season. I mean, if he throws for, you know, even, you know, what, 3,200 yards. I mean, maybe that's 3,100. Mid-3s. You still are going to have opportunities for DJ more in this offense, but it's going to be a red light green light. It's not going to be in every week production, the situation. He is so, he is clearly the number one. Yes. So, I mean, he's going to be the first read in so many plays. If they're running a run pass option, that target is going to go to DJ Moore. That's how the play will be designed. So it, there's a chance that DJ Moore does, it's an option because he's so good. But I'm not, none of us are projecting it. The running back room is.

Very interesting with David Montgomery departing. You have the addition of Deont de Foreman who had three top 10 weeks last year in Carolina, two of them against Atlanta, one against Detroit. He averaged four and a half a carry last year. They bring him in as a veteran to add to Khalil Herbert. Herbert missed some time in the middle of the year. He's had some big games, had 157 yards in week three against Houston. This situation, I think on one hand, you could be like, You know, we just talked about Madison. I think some people want to just say, okay, next man up, it's cool of Herbert. It's the same situation as Madison. And then I think other people look at it and just don't have any confidence in Herbert. And you see his ADP is nowhere near Madison's. You know, he's almost the RB 40, 10th round pick. Do we really, is that all attributed to Deonti Foreman and as an addition? No, I don't think it's just attributed to that. Like, I've pretty much tried to stay away from the bear's backfield.

Because this is... Even though Brooks doesn't like you for that. Right. Like Brooks is, he... came up to me the other day. I haven't told this story. We were in the break room. He comes he spits right in my face. He's spit in your face? I didn't know he could do such a good loogie. Okay. Too far. Too far. That did not happen. No, no. Did you feel like you had to publicly make sure our audience didn't believe you were spitting a loogie in his face? I didn't like where that went. I didn't think it was going there. He didn't get to the end. Yeah, I didn't get to the end. What if it had just been water?

No, no. No. Brooks is the most mild man. That is the fun. Honestly, if you spit in my face sometimes, Brooks, I will take whatever you have to say after that. The most serious I've ever taken anything in my life. I will, so you've got. Bull cases for both Khalil Herbert and Deont de Forman. Deontiformin, I think, is a very good player. He lost a big chunk of his career to an Achilles injury. He's kind of back. He showed flashes last year. They brought him in. If he's the guy, if he's the dude and, you know, he should be an efficient high-end rusher. He's a big body back that can get touchdowns. I like Deont Deontiform and I love them from before the NFL draft. Khalil Herbert, like Brooks likes.

I mean, and me. How dare you? Well, sure. The other day in the break room, Mike came up to me. And he spit right in my face. Kalil Herbert's had a few opportunities without David Montgomery. And like Alexander Madison, when those opportunities arose, he was awesome. He's also, he ranked first in rushing yards over expectation last year. He's a really good running back. Yeah, like the games that Andy highlighted the Houston game, that's. You should. You should have a big game against Houston, but the follow-up week was against the Giants, where he was 19 for 77. On the ground, he had a game against the Dallas Cowboys, where he was 16 for 99. The couple years ago, when David Montgomery missed a game or two, and Khalil Herbert had the opportunity, he had this huge game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who at the time were the best rush defense. And I think that ended up was the Super Bowl year, if I'm not mistaken.

Like, Khalil Herbert is extremely good. He has a very, very good running. I don't mind betting on either of these guys, and I think most people bet on Herbert. The reason that I kind of shy away, though, is because of Justin Fields. Justin Fields can be a goal line vulture and take touchdowns away from the running backs already, and he's not going to check it down to running backs. None of these guys are going to be huge pass catchers. So if you're not a huge pass catcher, And it ends up in a three-way rotation with Roshan Johnson, the rookie they brought in. And they're not, you know, it's just like, it's like if you add another back to Tampa, how confident are you in Rashad White at that point? Right. Yeah. Alexander Madison third round pick, Kelly Herbert, six round pick. Yes. Worthy. Worthy. Worthy. In the real NFL draft. Yeah, this is a final year for Khalil Herbert, I believe. Is it not? I would have to. I could be completely wrong in which case. This is year three. He's got one more. Spit him. Okay.

Cole come at. Just real quick. No, I'm sorry, Mike. Kille Herbert. I don't agree with Jason saying, I shy away. It's the running back 39 in the 10th round. This is your no-rb strategy. Yeah, this is a potential zero-rb hero. I completely agree with, yeah, Justin Fields will take some rushing touchdowns. They're not going to catch passes. But Khalil Herbert, with the volume, can be a. He can be a low-level running back, too, that you're getting in the 10th round. So I personally, I think, pick who you think it is, Cleo Herbert or Deont de Foreman. I would draft at least one of those guys for free in almost every one of my drafts. I am going to, I think I'm going to make the change. I've been kind of sticking with my early Deontah Foreman. You know, when they signed him, I thought he was going to come in and be the guy. But Herbert's the better back. And so I think I'm going to change. And really. Okay.

If I can be honest, I think that the biggest revelation for like opening my eyes was that Looney. You know, it's like. That's good. That definitely happened. That definitely happened. Contract year, Cole, come at, breakout season. Yes, no. No. No. No. No. No. 50. No, 544? He, I mean, he, he had a, he had a great end of year. But it was, it was really touchdowns. Yeah. And now you have, the reason we love DJ or we're okay with DJ Moore is because he's clearly the best guy on the field. And when Colcomette was having his run at the end, I mean, they had, this, they had nothing. Did have a lot of red zone targets. Chase Claypool, not worried about him stealing some of the DJ Moore? Nope. Okay. Nope.

Anything else on Chase Claypool? They traded the number 32 overall. By the way, they did add Robert Tunyon to the tight end room. He's a capable pass catcher. Chase Claypool, what's funny is like he came over. He was unused. He was just sadness for Chase Claypool. The capital they gave up. They gave up essentially a first round pick for Chase Claypool. But he is talented. Like he can get the job done and he's the wide receiver three for this team. I saw him doing some really cool slow motion pool catches the other day. Like leaping off the side and splashing down in the pool? I saw him doing modeling in Paris, I believe. It sounds like a couple weeks ago. Tunyon actually had more receptions than Cole commit last year. And some charitable work in there as well for Mr. Claypool. While he was, I'm just saying, I think it's, it's just sad.

It's sad. Mike, was that your way of trying to redeem Claypool? Well, I'm just like we're dunking on him for, he's posting pool videos. No, I just said that's what I saw. He was very, he was very strong. Oh, he is physically fit. It's just, um, he's also very tall. And he makes me sad, guys. He just makes me sad. We've, we've kind of realized this may be the year of Mike's redemption. Because, because you, Antonio Gibson could have a decent year. Madison is getting his opportunity. Uh-huh. I like it. What was the other? One other player was jumping out from your history of standing for them all the time. I don't know. Anybody remember back there? There's another one. Herbert's in that group, too. But Claypool. I mean, if your trend continues. All right, who wins the division? Give me the order that you see this division finishing. I'm going to take, this might surprise you. I'm going to take the Packers to win this division. I'm taking the Packers to win. Andy?

Who you got at top? I said give me the hold of it. Oh, we're just doing the top? It just says it's kind of fun. I'm going with the Packers. I'm going to take the Vikings. Because I think the Packers actually have a good defense. Like the Lions have made an attempt to fix things. It's very TBD to go from how bad they were last year at a couple pieces and try and completely turn it around. And I think everything is surrounding Jordan Love to. go out there with that defense. Yeah. The lions are the betting favorites, Minnesota behind them. Bears and Packers tied. Wow. So I'm going to take the Vikings and then I'm going to finish it out. I'm going to go Vikings, Lions, Packers, Bears. I'm going Packers, Vikings, Lions, Bears. Yep, me and Jay have it the same. All right. Let's do some best ball. Bestball breakdown. Presented by Underdog Fantasy.

All right, what are we doing today, Jason? We're breaking it down the late quarterbacks that you may want to stack with. Yeah, we're talking about, you know, if you look at last year, the winner of the best ball mania, Pat Grand had three quarterbacks all going later in drafts. He had Tom Brady, Tua, and Daniel Jones, and he took down millions of dollars. That is a... fully legitimate strategy to have the later round guys. I know a lot of the times right now we're grabbing one of the studs and then rolling with two quarterbacks instead of the three quarterback build. You can win either way. The question is, who are the right guys to pick from the late quarterbacks that you're looking at and who are our favorites? Mike, why don't you start off with your guy? I don't understand the ADP of this player. It is Gino Smith of the Seattle Seahawks.