Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Bounce Backs, Busts, and Mailbag

Right? Because he was only a rookie and he put up such great numbers. Kind of like the Keenan Allen effect of the year before where you see a rookie burst on the scene who kind of just had a great position where he was receiving all the targets and was kind of the go-to guy. And then you just expect, well, he was young. He's going to have more rapport. And so you pump his numbers. You inflate his numbers up from where he landed. And so he's being drafted as if his numbers are going to get better. And I actually believe...

strongly that his numbers are going to regress from his rookie campaign. They're definitely going to bring in another wide receiver, so he's not going to be just the only target in town, and he's not going to be able to sustain that touchdown rate. So as far as where you're drafting him for where he's going to finish, I'm disgusting. I'll let you go, Mike, and I have another take on him real quick, but go ahead. The problem with Benjamin and Newton is the yardage. I mean...

The touchdowns may or may not be there, but the yardage is just lacking where he averaged 54 yards a game with Cam Newton as the quarterback. He went over 100 yards with Cam Newton one time. Those are not wide receiver 1 numbers, and that's what people are trying to take him as he had 11 drops of basically a 50...

percent catch rate. And he doesn't average yards after the catch. He was in the bottom 10 of that statistic. Here's something that you need to remember about Carolina. Their defense got it back at the end of the year. They were garbage time points that Kelvin put up for half the year when Cam was hurt, when they were falling behind. Their defense stunk in the beginning of the year.

Into the year, they came back. They obviously made the playoffs. So if their defense has any semblance of what it's been for a year and a half of the last two years, there's just no, those garbage time points are gone. I mean, that's when Cam was racking up a lot of those yards. So I'd be very weary of, uh, wary of Kelvin Benjamin. Uh, this, this next one is a softball for us to hit, hit out of the park. Jeremy Macklin goes from the ninth, he was the ninth receiver last year, wide receiver one.

Came out and did it, man. All the credit in the world to Jeremy Macklin for betting on himself. Now he went and got himself a nice paycheck with Kansas City. His former coach. He got a paycheck and rest at the same time. He's going to be able to take it easy, not have to catch the ball. He's going to get paid for it. With those targets from Alex Smith. There's no good way to spin moving to a team that had no wide receiver touchdown receptions on an entire season. That's just not a good spin because he had plenty last year.

Is there more to be said about Jeremy Macklin other than don't draft him based on his production last year? Yeah, absolutely do not draft him on that production. What you can look at, what's interesting is he's going to his former coach, and he had years under Andy Reed. This is what he averaged under Andy Reed with a quarterback who was not Captain Checkdown Alex Smith. So, Macklin, 65 catches, 863 yards, seven touchdowns. Those touchdowns are good.

But the catches in the yardage is horrific. And if those touchdowns don't go between 7 and 10, you're getting garbage. Yeah, Macklin right now is being drafted 24th in the wide receiver. Oh, my goodness. He's being drafted as a wide receiver too. I don't think he finishes the year as a wide receiver 3. I honestly don't. Yeah, those numbers you read are, you know, I'm not throwing those out. Those are possible. Seven touchdowns is even possible. But he got 10 last year, and Kansas City, there's no way he's getting that target.

totals, I mean, 140-something targets last year. Or his yards. His yards are going to drop by $500. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So, I think he could put up $1,000 there. I'd love to give them. No way. Really? Yeah, really. No way can he put up 1,000 yards next year. No way? All right. You, uh... Yeah, oh, it's on.

Waterbed. Did I just make a Jeremy Maclin bed? Yeah, you bet that Jeremy Maclin's going to put up a grand. I am very confident in that. I think we need to explain the water bed. It's been a while since we actually talked. People might just be hearing this and like, what is this nonsense? So from time to time, we will have a disagreement. And we don't just. Pretty often. Eight times a ship. Well, we don't just disagree. We put it on the line with what we call a water bet where we... This goes way back.

Yeah, where we have a wheel. You will spin the wheel on it. Yeah, of water. And on it are a bunch of different punishments of ways to get cold water poured on you. And we're talking like in your pocket. I can't even remember. We had waterboard one that we banned. Yeah, well, I almost died. Well, that got. Yeah, we have a bunch of, I wonder if we should make people do the show that way.

But anyway, yeah, so it's a form of punishment. It's a way to, you know, you're not just losing the bet, you're paying the piper, and we have a lot of fun with it. You've been doing it for years. Your pride gets drenched with freezing water. Yeah, and we'll record those. We'll post them. Jason's already lost this year, setting a precedent for the remainder of his year. Yeah, I haven't lost this one. Just throwing this out there, 773 yards, 960, 859, 857, those are all of his other years. Yeah.

How many times has Jeremy Mack would have been over 1,000 yards, Jason? Just last year. Just last year. Zero in all I read. In the power smoothie offense? In the power smoothie offense, he went over one. But he's going to Kansas City. He was 1,400 yards. Well, right. I mean, but he is going to the high power Kansas City Chiefs moving along. He only has to average, like, what, 75 a game to do that? Yeah, only. I'm not worried about that. That's like what the Chiefs receiving core averages.

I can't believe I'm defending Jeremy Maclin on the show. Jeremy Maclin is going to... As a bust. He's going to go across the middle, hands wide open, and Zeus is going to come screaming out of the slot up the seam. He's going to punch Maclin out. He's going to one-handed catch that thing and run it in for a touchdown. Jeremy Maclin is going to average 3.4 yards of catch. You heard it here for us. You're both crazy. I'm glad I'm on this show to just bring reasonable...

advice. There's nothing reasonable about Macklin in a chief uniform. A thousand yards? All right. You might be right about that. Do we want to talk about this last guy on our possible? Yes. He's not a bust. He is not a bust. For where you draft him. Yes. Okay. So Matt Forte is a guy that... This is a temper your expectations. Exactly. Yeah. We don't have an audio clip for temper your expectations. But Matt Forte is being overdrafted. Matt Forte is being overdrafted.

He's as high as number one. Yeah, we saw him yesterday on the list at number one, which I don't even know how you could possibly justify that. Maybe you live in Chicago and you're a hometown fan. But, I mean... He's a top five on almost every board.

Yeah. He's got nowhere to go but down. His yards for carry were not even at four last year. He caught over 100 catches last year in the Mark Tresman system and he's leaving. He has nowhere to go but down. You're going to draft him just thinking, oh, this is where he's at, and he's going to go down. And also, when you look at the carries, he has passed the threshold that most running backs historically die after. He's over 1,800 on his career.

Is he that generational Emmett Smith running back as he approaches 2,000 carries where the average man starts to break down? And Tressman's leaving. John Fox is coming in. John Fox was a two running back guy forever. I don't see Matt Forte just being a complete bell cow in Chicago this year like he has been. I think Kadeem Karee, maybe they drafted running back. I actually like Kading Keri this year. I just...

With the coaching change, the 102 catches, that's not going to be there to save him from his 1,000-yard 3.9 carry season. That's the thing. If you want to, the only way he's going to be saved is if he gets, surprises us on the touchdown front. Yeah. Because he's not catching 100 balls. So be careful with Matt Ford. He's not a bust. I'd be happy to have him on my team, but it has to be at the right value, so he won't be on any of my teams.

Mailbag. Mail, bye. Yeah. It's everybody's... Yes. Favorite part of the show or Mike and join Striber. My favorite part. Yeah. I love this. Yeah. If you have a question for the show, we answer them during this segment. Mail at the Fantasy Footballers.com. This one comes in from Kyle.

One of you guys can tackle it. What's up, Kyle? He says he's in an overly competitive Keeper League, no such thing. Love it. Love it so far. That's called the Keeper League. I love it. It shouldn't be qualified. It allows them to keep one player drafted from round eight on. Oh, my goodness. He gave up on Jeremy Hill, it says. And he traded him the week before they made him the bell cow. And they traded him for a 2015.

fifth round pick. What? He's not, and he, you know, he's not happy about this. He said that soul crushing news being said, he only has two options this year. He could keep Julius Thomas in the 13th round or put his hopes.

and dreams into Jordan Matthews in the 13th. So he's deciding between Julius in the 13th or Jordan Matthews in the 13th. So which do you think will bring better? I know your answer. Yeah, I'll take this one just because I love easy pickings, little hanging fruit. It's not even close. It's not even remotely close. You don't take Julius Thomas in the 13th unless it's a redraft league. And I love Jordan Matthews. Yeah, it's Jordan. It's Jordan. Michael. Yeah, I like Julius Thomas more than these guys, but it's Jordan Matthews. That pains me and might.

in the core of my being. A funeral for... Oh, man. That's so sad. But honestly, Jordan Matthews in the 13th, I think, is still a good value. So keep your head up, and don't tell anybody else about that train. Yeah, you go to the grave with that one. This next email comes in from Paul, from Scotland. We are an international show. I love getting this email from, it said we were feeding his off-season fantasy football hunger all the way from Scotland. Is he...

Scottish or is he American? Well, I'm not going to say his last name on the show. No, don't do that. He's Scottish. From his last name, he sounded Scottish to me. That would be incredible. Yeah. That's a football fan right there. His question focuses on his awful dynasty RBs. I noticed a lot of our questions, by the way, are related to, I guess it makes sense. Horrible situations. Draft running backs early people. Yeah. We are, he's in a 16 team.

Half-point PPR with 25 roster spots. Again, it's a Dynasty League. Wow. So his question is, here's his wide receivers. He's okay at wide receiver. He's actually great at wide receiver. Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffrey, Emmanuel Sanders, Marty McBry. Yeah. Percy Harvin. Doug Baldwin. And then a couple.

A couple scrubs. Marty McBray is Martavis Bryant for the new listeners. Yeah. But that's his cool name now. Marty McBride. It took me a show to get on board, Marty McBray. But now, great Scott. I love it. At running back, he's got Lacey. Oh, that's good. Latavius Murray, Denard Robinson, Doug Martin, Monte Ball, Lance Dunbar, and Storm Johnson? Is that who that is? Yeah. I was like, and Stevie Johnson? Stormy.

So his question revolves around, do you think Martin or Ball have a chance at being a usable RB2 next season? To me, no, no, probably not. Martin overball. I don't like C.J. Anderson, but I don't like Monte Ball either. So he wants to notice he used one of those sexy wide receivers as bait in a trade. He also picks 10th in our rookie...

in his rookie draft. So I think, yes, you could use one of those wide receivers as bait, especially if somebody's high on Harvin. You know who I trade? Latavius Murray? No, if you're in a – well, yeah, I'm trying to get rid of him, but if you're in a dynasty league, how much long-term value does Emmanuel Sanders actually have? I agree. Cody Latimer. Yeah, Cody Latimer is coming in. Once Peyton Manning leaves, what is Sanders? Sanders was a bus candidate for me because he put up all career highs last year.

And when a guy puts up all career highs, he's going to regress. He's going to regress. I actually really like Emmanuel Sanders, but I could not agree more. That is a great trade bait option. I do that regardless of who else you. Yeah, a little. And another tidbit for that 10th pick in your rookie draft, keep an eye on Tevin Coleman. Look at this guy. Kevin Coleman, running back. Puts up four-fors consistently. Reminds me a little bit of, you know, kind of that breakout potential of a CJ when he came into the league.