Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Bounce Backs, Busts, and Mailbag

you know, wide receiver. I think what was wide receiver two in Miami, like a top end wide receiver two. And I expect him to be able to do that, but I don't think he's going to bounce back to where. Five. Right. I just don't see that. I think not only because he's got, you know, opportunity to drop from where he has been, but also because I think there's so many young wide receivers that are about to rise up. Same on the Calvin Johnson conversation that there's the top six or seven guys.

are just so good right now in the NFL. Let me ask you this. Brandon Marshall or Keenan Allen? Brandon Marshall. Okay. Just making sure. Yeah. So I'm looking this up. Where did Marshall finish? Miami might be a really good comparison. Do what he did out there with a little bit of a less high-octane offense. New quarterback. Different quarterback situation. And he was still really productive. In 2010, his first year there, he was 28th. However, in 2011, 13th.

just outside of wide receiver 1 numbers. And I think Jason would probably say 13th is more than reasonable. I think I would split the difference there. Oh, really? Yeah. Yeah. Well, because you see the first year, I mean, you do have to get used to a new, you know, a new quarterback. Well, you're definitely seeing a lot of the reasons why people will well fade on him. Going to New York, having a down year. He's going to be falling down the boards a little bit. So here's just quick question. Okay. Brandon Marshall or Julian Edelman?

Brandon Marshall. Brandon Marshall or Brandon Cooks? Marshall. For me. I would do Marshall. Both of those guys were very early on ADP, but both of those guys are going before Marshall. He's going at the back of the fourth. That's exactly where, that's why he's a candidate for us at least. I agree. I don't think any of us are saying he's a guarantee he's top five. I think we're just saying he's not a 25. He's not a 35. The back of the fourth, a guy who could finish as a wide receiver won. Yep.

His ability to do it. Upside. All right. Let's talk about our last bounceback candidate. Really, it's not mine because I don't really believe in this one as much as Mike does. I do. I don't know why he does. So we're talking about, I believe he's the second receiver on the Atlanta Falcons, Roddy White. Doesn't bother me that he's the second receiver. He was 10th in 2012. Great. Mind you, that was three years ago. He didn't do anything in 2013, and he was 26th last year, which to me...

Just, I'll let you rant, but 26 to me is his ceiling this year. Okay. Okay, I'll give him 24. 24 is his ceiling. He can be a wide receiver 2 for you. But I just don't have confidence that a guy that's production has slowed and injuries have told will be, I mean, 24 is fine. 24 is great. He's playing on everybody's fantasy team. But I don't, I don't see him going up into that 10, 11, 12 range again. The, the production has slowed.

is just a myth in your head. It's all because of games missed. And up until 2013-2014, that's up until then he had never missed a game. And he missed three in 2013 to last year. So here's his stat. This is what he finished with last year in 14 games. 80, 921, and 7. Those are fair numbers, right? It's not bad.

So we're playing hypothetical, of course, but let's say he played the full season, and he was injured a lot of this season. Let's say he played the full 16 games, and you give him, he averaged 60 yards a game, right? So let's give him his average. Let's say he doesn't even have a great game. He just has average games, and he scores one touchdown. He jumps up to the 17th wide receiver. The deal, he had 125 targets in 14 games. He was on pace for 142 targets.

Well, he would have easily been over a thousand yards. I've had Roddy White the last two years, just to interject. That's why you're so sour. I was he said, did he talk to you into it or out? No, no, no. He hasn't talked to me. And I have a great question for you, by the way. I think that Roddy White was always, I mean, he never missed a game his first, you know.

decade in the league it seemed like. But over the last few years, he has had the type of injuries that come with age and that reoccur. And I don't see him playing 16. That's my issue with him being a top. And that's perfectly fair. So just my last, since 2007, if Roddy White plays 16 games, he gets over 1,000 yards. It's as easy as that. I think that 1,000 yards is not a problem.

for Roddy White if he's healthy. Okay. I just don't know. I think 1,000 yards puts him, he'll probably be about 25, 23. But I'm saying that's the minimum. Okay, so Roddy in the 6th or Julio in the 2nd? Julio in the 6th. Hulio in the 6th? I'm probably still going Julio Jones because I think he can finish the top of the position. What if Roddy's in the 7th? Right now his actual ADP is the second pick of the 7th round. I mean, I just, I think that's fantastic. Well, you.

In the seventh round, a guy who you guys are agreeing should finish as a wide receiver too. Yeah, I agree. The value is great. The value is great. If we're talking about whether I like Roddy White for the upcoming year, I do. If it's specific, which granted we're just making up a segment that we're talking about, bounce back. But bounce back would be saying he's going to bounce back to what he was before last year as a top. Two years ago. As a wide receiver two.

And I think wire receiver two is his ceiling. I agree with Andy. But in the seventh, wide receiver two? I love it. We're high on Matt Ryan. We're high on Kyle Shanahan. Exactly. So there's a chance there. This might be too convoluted for you, but for a bet. If Roddy White plays all 16, he will be a top 20 receiver. I'm not taking that bet. Yeah, you got to make it like a wire receiver 1 or something. Yeah, if you want to bounce back bet me, bet me that he gets into the top 12.

I don't think the offense can sustain too. We agree. We agree. All right. We're talking busts, guys that will go very high or higher than they should in the fantasy drafts coming up. You know, we're inching closer here. We got the NFL draft right around the corner. We're going to be talking rookies, impact players, guys that we like landing in certain places. And upcoming show, I believe, next Tuesday. Is that what we said?

What, wait, what's happening on Tuesday? I think it's a week after Tuesday we're talking rookies. Oh, yeah. So stay tuned for that. But these guys are our busts. The first guy we got to talk about is a hometown native, well, not native, hometown player for us here in Arizona. Andre Ellington. I saw, I saw him on somebody's, where was he in that top 10 list we just saw the other day?

Like five or something? Four or five? Oh my gosh. How out of touch was that list? We love Andre Ellington as a dude, right? As a player for the Arizona Cardinals, but guys, he is not a wide receiver at all, but he's not a running back one. Not even close. And he's getting drafted there. So my only comment on him is that people need to understand.

Andre Ellington has no chance at a heavy workload this year to me. Yeah, it's weird because of what's coming out of Bruce Arian's mouth of saying, well, Andre Ellington will get the same workload unless somebody takes the job from him, which somebody's going to take the job from him. It's definitely happening. And just so people aren't thinking, hey, these guys watched him last year, they're jumping chip.

I was not on the Andre Ellington bandwagon last year. I tried to preach caution with him very much while people were flying off the handle. Here's what happened to Andre Ellington last year. 3.3 yards per carry. A 2.2 yard per carry drop in 2014. So last year, he had 83 more carries. Now what would you do? How many more yards do you think you would get with 83 more carries?

The answer is eight. Eight more yards on 83 more carries. He's just, like you said, you've said it in previous shows. He's Geo Bernard. He is excellent in that he can run out wide and line up out of the backfield as a wide receiver. He can take, he's great in third down situations, get him in space, let him be that gadget guy. But your stats right there prove it.

You give him 83 more carries, you don't get any more production out of him. So why give him 83 more carries? So he lost 2.2 yards per carry. We were just talking about bounce backs, right? So the question should be asked, do you expect him to stay 2.2 yards per carry less? He was injured last year a lot. Maybe he comes in healthier, has a little bit limited role, and can be better. I'm asking more devil's advocate here.

For me, he's a bust because of where he is going to be drafted. He's going in the fourth round right now he's positioned properly, in my opinion. He'll drop even maybe a little bit further when Arizona brings in another back. Yeah. Well, I think he's fine where he's at. The fourth round? Oh, yeah. I would take him. I would not take him in the fourth round. Here's guys that Andre Ellington is going ahead of, okay? It's not a lot of guys. C.J. Spiller, G. O'Brien, Darren McFadden, Isaiah Crowell, Jonathan Stewart.

I'm tempering what I'm seeing online from some of these top 10 lists where they're putting running back one hype. It seems like on some of these ADP lists, they might have them in the right spot for me. But, you know, I'm not taking any of those other guys ahead of him at all. Spiller, Jonathan Stewart, for sure. I can't remember the other guys you listed. But I would take them. Crowell, Bernard. I would take Crowell. Ivory, Blunt. Yeah, but at least three of those guys. I mean, I just don't think Ellington.

He can't sustain with the workload. I like him to bounce back, so to speak, if he's put back into his proper role of being the gadget guy. And unfortunately, Ellington, I've got to pile on you a little bit more. He had, with all of that workload, which it could be the injuries Jason was just talking about, he wasn't elusive anymore. He had forced 12 miss tackles. You know what range that puts him, what company he's keeping in that? We're talking Toby Gerhardt, Donald Brown.

Matt Asiata. When you are as elusive as Matt Asiata, hey, come on, it might be time to hang it up if you can't dodge tackles more than that guy. That being said, if they draft a rookie highly and bring in somebody and Ellington's draft stock plummets, and we see him used in more an efficient role. In that case, it would be a Gordon or a Gurley. Right, yeah, exactly. If someone like that, I wonder what...

range, you know, if he drops to the sixth, does he become a value knowing that he can... I like him more in the sixth. All right, so let's talk. We've got to get through these busts here. Deshawn Jackson is the next guy on our list. Mike, sing the songs of Mr. Deshaun Headcase Jackson. Why don't you like him? Because he produced really pretty well last year. Oh, he produced like a monster because he had 21... 16th. 21 yards per reception.

But that's his game. No. The three years prior, he was in the 16 range. That's a five-yard jump per reception. He had 1100 yards on 56 catches. But he did switch teams, and they're utilizing him in that deep role. Yeah, I just, I don't think you can sustain that. He's not going to, if that's all he's getting.

he's not going to be able to hit on those like he did last year. I agree. I looked through some of what the coaches were saying, and they want to get Pierre Garson more involved. And I think that... Good. Yeah, no, no. I actually see Deshaun Jackson as a very big bust candidate, and I actually see Pierre Garson as a bounceback candidate that was on my list for bouncebacks. Yeah, I don't have too many thoughts on D.JX, other than the fact, I liked what I saw last year. Obviously, he's going to be that boom guy.

He's not who I want to start at my wide receiver one or two. And right now he's probably getting drafted as a wide receiver two. And who's throwing him the ball? Is it Griffin? Yeah. Right now it's Griffin. Yeah. Deshaun Jackson's good if you're in like a best ball league. Remember you're Kirk Cousins love? I was just going to say he's a captain Kirk. You love that dude. Dude, that guy was a fantasy beast for a week. One week? Oh, for more than one week. Oh, but remember that game, that Monday night game where he came out and... I think it was Thursday.

Whatever it was, it was on display, five or six picks. Yeah, that was... I don't know if I've ever seen anything like that. Watching it. I was like watching through my fingers. I just expected, I expected every single throw to be picked off. I was watching my matchup be lost. Yep. All right, Kelvin Benjamin, next guy on our bust list. We've talked about him a little bit, too. A guy that was targeted heavily, very touchdown dependent, and not very...

efficient with his targets in terms of catches and kind of in an ideal situation last year where there was really no one else to throw to. So Calvin Benjamin, I mean, there'll be people that say, hey, he's young, he's Cam's favorite wide receiver, he has upside. What is your take on Kelvin? Yeah, that's the exact problem is that some conventional wisdom says that Kelvin is going to be even better.